MGT 370: Chapter 06 Assignment: Managerial Decision Making

"One of my customers said to me the other day, "Why don't you make a bikini that will scare off sharks?" She was joking, but now I'm wondering, 'What opportunities might we miss out on in five years because we're not thinking about them now?' How can I reduce bias toward the status quo that might be influencing my thinking?"

"Use brainstorming with a diverse group of people within and outside your company to generate ideas, with no idea being too far-fetched."

"Having the bikinis made in New York has made sense so far, but now that our sales volume has grown, it may make sense to export fabric to another country and then import the finished bikinis to the United States. I know what the respective costs are, but I have no idea what quality control will be like if I offshore production. Which decision style is most appropriate for choosing a course of action?"

"Use the conceptual style so as to weigh a broad range of alternatives and include qualitative information from people in your creative problem solving."

"I want to expand our social media presence, engaging our customers on their preferred platforms in a cost-effective manner. If I use a rational decision-making process, what can I expect the outcome to be?"

"You will rate all alternatives against known criteria and choose the course of action that will maximize return to the organization."

As you advance in your career, you are aware that the way you approach decisions will probably evolve. Senior-level managers who make good decisions typically: (Check all that apply.)

-Take the time needed to reason through the decision in a systematic way -Identify all the stakeholders who should be involved in making the decision -Seek out different perspectives on the situation

Following are several actions managers commonly take when confronted with turnover. Which of these actions are not supported by evidence? (Check all that apply.)

-When talking with job applicants, discuss only the best parts of the job. -Separate employees so that they don't talk about the people who have left the company.

When Michael chooses one of several alternative courses of action based on each action's advantages and disadvantages, he is __________.

Making a decision

If you work in a complex organization in which you see the political model of decision making at work, which of the following is likely true about your organization?

Managers have different interests and are pursuing different goals

Which of the following is not an assumption of the classical model of decision making?

Managers will use intuition rather than rational analysis to make sound decisions when information is incomplete.

Selim is a research chemist at Clean & Clear Bottled Water. Recently, bottled water companies all over the world have been losing sales as people get more and more concerned about the source of water and the impact of plastic water bottles on the environment. Now Selim must make a decision about his next research project. Will he look for a new chemical that will make water bottles more biodegradable, or will he look for a new chemical that will make water taste better? The senior managers at Clean & Clear haven't given Selim any suggestions that would help him set his goals in this case. Selim's decision about what chemical he will develop is being made under conditions of __________, because:

Ambiguity -The goal is not clear, and neither is the solution

Abigail's first response to a problem is to request data reports from the management information system and then study the data carefully.

Analytical Style

Last week, some teenagers came into the store and were very loud. They also made jokes about stealing from the store, although store staff did not observe them pocketing any items. Taylor got so angry at their behavior that she screamed at them to "Get out! Get out of this store right now and don't ever come back!" They left immediately, but then she called the police. Other customers were disturbed by her outburst and the police presence and wondered whether they were in danger. A customer caught her outburst on his cell phone, and the video soon went viral on the Internet.

Being influenced by emotions

In the video, Helena says her decision to move to Costa Rica seemed like "kind of a crazy decision." If her happy memories of wonderful times surfing in Costa Rica guided her decision, then __________ was a possible source of bias.

Emotion

In an effort to justify a prior decision, managers may be prone to __________ , in which they "put good money after bad." It is important to avoid this tendency by being willing __________ when the evidence shows it is failing.

Escalating Commitment, to end a project

The most difficult decision-making situation is __________, because the problem to be solved is unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and information about outcomes is unavailable.

ambiguity

When managers meet to analyze the results of decisions, this is __________, and the purpose is to __________ the decisions and their outcomes.

an after-action review, learn from

When managers engage in rigorous debate to solve a problem, one technique they might use is to __________ to ensure the group's assumptions are challenged. Another is __________, in which the group breaks into two subgroups that work separately and then exchange proposals.

appoint a devil's advocate, point-counterpoint

Managers who use evidence-based decision making rely on __________ rather than on __________.

facts, rules of thumbs

Larry's company has decided to no longer lease office space and instead have all employees work from home. Larry needs to make a __________ as he figures out how the newly dispersed workforce can cost-effectively order office supplies.

nonprogrammed decision

When selecting an alternative, manager's personalities and willingness to accept uncertainty influence their __________.

risk propensity

When Helena says in the video that she has to make decisions as though she's 25 because otherwise she'll be "way too conservative and we'll be dead in the water," she is describing a way of countering __________.

the status quo bias

You are a senior manager, and you are mentoring a new manager. You want to emphasize to the new manager that being effective in his job will depend on sound decision making. What reasons will you give? (Check all that apply.)

-Decision making determines how the organization solves problems. -Ultimately, whether the organization meets its goals depends on a series of many decisions. -Decisions determine whether the organization allocates resources effectively.

Which of the following statements is consistent with evidence-based decision making? (Check all that apply.)

-Evidence-based decision making suggests that asking "why" repeatedly leads to better decisions. -Managers make better decisions when they review their past failures and successes.

Following are several actions managers commonly take when confronted with turnover. Which of these actions are not supported by evidence? Check all that apply.

-Implement a program to reduce turnover throughout the organization. -Discourage employees from making friends in the organization.

Which of the following statements is consistent with evidence-based decision making? (Check all that apply.)

-Knowing what you don't know is as important as knowing what you do know. -Evidence-based decision making uses hard facts and data to discern the best course of action.

Following are several actions managers commonly take when confronted with turnover. Which of these actions are supported by evidence? (Check all that apply.)

-Make it a policy to hire employee referrals whenever possible. -Design work in teams. -Build organizational ties to the community through an active volunteer program. -Hire people who believe in the company's goals and vision. (All 4 of these are the answer.)

Which of the following statements is consistent with evidence-based decision making? (Check all that apply.)

-Managers make better decisions when they review their past failures and successes. -Evidence-based decision making encourages questioning assumptions.

Tom tends to consider the personal development of others when making decisions.

Behavioral Style

In __________, employees generate a wide range of alternatives. Organizations may use __________ to encourage participation from people with social inhibitions, reduce a tendency to conform, and increase the diversity of participants.

Brainstorming, Electronic Brainstorming

A decision maker has conditions of __________ when all the information needed to make the decision is available.

Certainty

Sarkis is an administrative manager at EMC Insurance. His job includes updating the company website every morning to include the latest news articles about EMC. Sarkis's decision about whether or not to update the EMC website is being made under conditions of __________, because:

Certainty -The decision is routine and follows rules

In the video, Helena describes a coworker as "very methodical" and "not an entrepreneur." This colleague would be most comfortable with the __________ of decision making.

Classical Model

Steve likes to discuss a number of different alternatives with his team before choosing one.

Conceptual Style

The process of __________, or identifying problems and opportunities and then resolving them, involves effort both before and after choosing a course of action.

Decision Making

Four distinct __________ have been identified that characterize how managers evaluate problems, generate alternatives, and make choices.

Decision Styles

The tendency for decision makers to conform rather than express contrary opinions is __________. When this occurs, managers prioritize __________ over the quality of the decision.

Groupthink, Harmony

After years of saving, you finally have enough money for the down payment on a house. Now you've started gathering all of the information you can about houses in a 25-square-mile area. The decision you make about which house you will buy is a:

Nonprogrammed Decision

Univision Communications Inc., a Spanish language entertainment giant, hired Randy Falco as its executive vice president and chief operating officer. The decision executives at Univision made about who to pick for this position is a:

Nonprogrammed Decision

In February 2011, Facebook announced that it would be releasing versions of Oregon Trail and Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego?, two popular video games. The decision Facebook made about which video games to offer is a:

Nonprogrammed decision

Helena needs to decide whether she can afford to make her bikinis in two additional colors that are trending for the coming season. She knows exactly how much credit she has with suppliers but not exactly how many swimsuits will sell. This is a __________ decision. If Helena bases her decision partly on past sales data and partly on her intuition from years in the fashion industry, the __________ model would best describe her decision-making process.

Nonprogrammed, Administrative

Helena's managers meet to discuss customer feedback on the many design ideas she has come up with and decide which bikinis to make next year. For each bikini design, some customers love it and others hate it. This is a __________ decision. Furthermore, the purchasing manager is primarily concerned about the cost of fabric and trim, the sales manager is primarily concerned about how much Mi Ola can charge for each item, and the marketing manager is primarily concerned about whether the designs will reinforce the brand image. Therefore, how this decision gets made can best be described by the __________ model.

Nonprogrammed, Political

Margarita is a manager at The New York Times who has lost five of her employees during the last year. Now she has to make a decision about how to retain the employees on her team. Having recently taken a class on decision making, Margarita decides to follow the six-step process for deciding what to do. What problem is Margarita most likely to face during the selection of desired alternative step in the decision-making process?

Satisficing, or choosing the first solution that works, not the best solution

Stella is in charge of the western region, and she has a strong track record of opening new stores that perform well and closing stores that could not contribute satisfactorily to the bottom line. Lately, however, many of her new stores have had below average performance, and she has closed some stores that probably could have been turned around by putting a different store manager in charge, advertising more, or offering more specials on popular products. Nonetheless, Stella knows that she is great at her job.

Overconfidence

Last spring, your spouse surprised you with a puppy. Fortunately, the puppy (named Loki after the Norse god of mischief) gets along well with your 17 cats. The decision you make every day about whether or not to feed Loki is a:

Programmed Decision

Stephanie orders office supplies every month. She is making a __________ because she always bases the order on current inventory levels, which are accurate and up-to-date.

Programmed Decision

The front office staff at Marriott Hotels has a preshift meeting at 7:00 AM every morning. As general manager, you are expected to attend these meetings. The decision you make every day about what time you will arrive at work is a:

Programmed Decision

You are the CEO for a large scanner manufacturer. Recently, you caught a department manager embezzling money from your company. The decision you make about whether or not to fire the department manager is a:

Programmed decision

When Mi Ola's purchasing manager places the weekly order for new bikinis based on how many of each type have sold that week, this is a __________ decision, and the process of making it could best be described by the __________ model.

Programmed, Classical

When a manager uses a blend of analytical thought and intuition, the manager is said to be using __________.

Quasirationality

The VP of marketing knows that the organization wants to increase sales by 10% and knows there are two ways to do this. In this decision involving __________, either option might fail, but the VP can estimate their chance of failure.

Risk

The IT manager knows she wants to improve the company's email system. However, the situation is one of __________ because she does not know the costs and potential benefits of the various options, and she is unsure how the company will be using the email system in a few years.

Uncertainty

Desmond is a sales manager for the Bratney Companies, a company that manufactures equipment used in the processing of grains and other produce. Every year, Desmond must submit a request for the number of new sales representatives to be hired in the next year. Desmond's goal is clear—he must have enough sales reps to service all of Bratney's customers—but it is often difficult to predict how many customers the company will have. Sales are dependent on the economy, weather, farming trends, and a large number of other environmental factors. Desmond's decision about how many sales reps to hire is being made under conditions of __________, because:

Uncertainty -The goal is clear, but there is no clear solution to the problem