OCEANS FINAL EXTENSIVE

if the ecological footprint (area) resulting from consumption by the entire global human population

exceeds the actual area of the planet, then we are withdrawing more from planet earth than planet earth can replenish..

How confident are we that humans are responsible for global warming?

very confident

CASE 3: SHARKS

~100 million sharks caught annually for Sport Fins Jaws Flesh Bycatch Finning is one source of shark mortality ; you catch the shark and cut their fins off and throw them overboard Shark Fins in soup for thickener → we are massively overfishing

Pelagic Long-Line Fishing:

​​.Uses more than 100km of fishing line and thousands baited hooks

One of the key components of any Paris agreement

was to institute a system of review of the emissions targets every five years, with a view to ratcheting them upwards

The World Economic Forum's Living Planet Index 2018 observes that nature underpins all economic activity, presently worth an estimated

$125 trillion annually

Goal to limit warming below

1.5 C

Socio-Economic Impacts of Arctic Amplification:

Impacts fisheries, Mass mortality of charismatic species

Have Past US Coastal Policies Worked?

The Short Answer is: NO

New York State Goes Big on Offshore Wind:

"blew our expectations out of the water" and heralded a new era of demand for clean energy.

Globally, the market value of marine and coastal resources and industries is estimated at

$3 trillion annually

Two Additional Reasons Factory Meat is Bad For the Planet:

1. Impact of Freshwater Demand 2. Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Ezra

"I would found an institution where any person can find instruction in any study." Ezra Cornell Cornell defines itself through its motto as the Social Justice Ivy League School

The current Supreme Court will hear arguments this term (2022) on what constitutes

"Navigable Waters of the United States"

30 BY 30, 50 BY 50

(30% of land and ocean set aside for marine protected area by 2030 ; 50% of land and ocean set aside for marine protected area by 2050)

. The Tragedy is facilitated by a perception held by many others [TQ]

(bystanders) who think the ocean or the atmosphere (or entire planet) is not really theirs so they do not have a right (permission) to complain...

Aquaculture of Planktivorous Fish

(e.g. Tilapia) is Sustainable... (does not need fish meal) 1. Planktivorous fish feed on zooplankton and are not fed wild caught prey fish 2. Consequently, these types of planktivorous fish can be raised sustainably

Species Richness

(the number of species in a given area) is a common metric of the diversity of life—but it should be integrated with other metrics to fully capture biodiversity → number of species in given ecosysem Species richness rarely captures key attributes that provide insight into the roles of biodiversity. • For example, keystone species like the starfish Pisaster in the rocky intertidal or herring in coastal ocean systems have outsized influence/importance in their respective ecosystems.

2021 IPCC Report

- CODE RED moment for people and planet Uncontrollable heat waves Research at Cornell shows 20% of food lost from climate change, could change to 50% by 2050

Humanity's total Ecological Footprint is now

1.7 planet Earths.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

- most important way to sustain biology in oceans Set aside area → no fishing allowed → this part can grow to high abundance

"During my years as president, the students of Kyoto Now! pushed us

- so you see this started with students really - pushed us [me] to try harder to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,

The Need to Reduce Methane From Animal Agriculture to Stay Below 1.5 C warming

-Agricultural CH4 emissions are currently projected to increase by about 30% in 2050 relative to 2010 levels. -Agricultural CH4 emissions must be reduced by 24-47%, and CO2 emissions must reach net-zero by mid-century, in modeled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C

Main point of AR6

-It is virtually certain that "human-induced greenhouse gas forcing is the main driver behind observed changes in hot and cold extremes on the global scale".

PATHWAY TO NET ZERO

-Lower energy demand, be efficient - Electrify everything -Double or triple electricity generation. Convert to all zero-carbon Build out wind and solar aggressively Build more batteries Keep existing nuclear plants Viable new nuclear, CCS, geothermal, along with long-term storage. Deploy as needed -Commercialize carbon capture - Spread your chips need aggressive, well designed, RD&D programs with a broad portfolio of technologies

Sustainability Progress Metrics- Cornell 2035

-Net onsite CO2 emissions by 54% since 2008 The combined heat/power facility introduced in 2009 is highly efficient with regard to onsite CO2 emissions. Most of the drop between 2008 and 2010 came from the combined decrease in purchased electricity and CO2 emitted from onsite electricity generation.

Gist of Dr. Karl Hausker's Argument

-We need to capture carbon to keep co2 levels low Carbon capture needed in power sector -After mid-century, we need to take more co2 out of atmosphere than put in this is to offset emissions - Controversy of carbon capture PUT ALL CHIPS ON TABLE → CARBON CAPTURE, NUCLEAR, AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS

ONLY FOUR STATES IN THE WORLD TO NOT RATIFY THE PROTOCOL

.US., North Korea, Iran and Libya.

Air Pollution literally kills millions of people each year...

1 in 5 People in the world die from the smoke we produced when we burn fossil carbon energy

Bioaccumulation of Heavy Metals

1) A fish that is just 3 trophic steps away from phytoplankton it takes 10^3 units of phytoplankton carbon to make 1 unit of fish carbon 2) However, In the open ocean, with 5 trophic steps to commercial fish like tuna, it takes 10^5 units of phytoplankton to make 1 unit of tuna 3) Unlike carbon, heavy metals like mercury are not easily lost in the transfer from one trophic level to the next. 4) 1 unit of tuna that is 5 trophic steps from phytoplankton has nearly all the mercury that was initially contained in 105 units of phytoplankton or equivalently the tuna has 10^3 higher concentration of mercury than phytoplankton! 5) Adding mercury to the ocean at even very low concentrations has a gigantic effect on the final concentration of mercury in fish because of this 10^5 magnification 6) Pregnant woman or woman of child bearing age should be especially careful of eating fish that reside high on the trophic level (e.g., tuna or swordfish)

Not just fossil carbons...

1. 90% of all Top Predator Fish are now gone from the oceans 2. Over half of all US Streams are now degraded (primarily by nutrient pollution) 3. Half of all corals on this earth are gone due to coral bleaching, disease and also water quality-related problems (e.g., nutrient pollution and sediment runoff) 4. Species Extinctions Rates: 1 in 9 Species are threatened with extinction - many within decades • In effect, we are now witness to the 6th mass extinction event on earth • it can now be said that current human impacts are on the same scale as an astroid hitting the earth...

Four strategies to get to Net Zero

1) Energy efficiency - Lets be more efficient with energy use and let's electrify -everything - Need to build charging stations, solar, wind... - IRA set to reduce emissions by 40% 2) Electrification of end-uses 3) Electricity decarbonization 4) Carbon Capture

Ecosystem changes in West Antarctica:

1) Over the past 40 years, populations of adult Antarctic Krill have declined by 70 to 80% in these areas 2) Model Projections' predict that by 2100 suitable habitat for young krill will decline by up to 80%

Contributions to Sea Level Rise

1) Thermal Expansion (warm ocean surface → thermally expands) 2) Melting Land Ice

US Ocean Policy

1. 2010-2018 (Obama) 2. 2018-2021 (Trump) 3. 2021-Present (Biden)

US Farm-Raised Shrimp

1. IF done properly they can be a good environmental/sustainable choice US framed-raised shrimp are your best bet → highly regulated 2. IF done improperly in un- regulated countries there are strong environmental risks (e.g, mangrove destruction and water pollution)

Area Required to Provide Goods and Services...

1. Bioproductive land - land area required to produce crops, grazing (pasture), timber (forest) etc. Use of these land types is usually calculated separately. Bioproductive sea - sea area required to provide fish and seafood. 2. Energy land - 'new' forest area required for the absorption of carbon emissions to stabilize CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 3. Built land - land area for buildings and roads. Once built on, land is no longer bioproductive in any year.

The assessment report's authors have ranked the five direct drivers of change in nature:

1. Changes in land and sea use 2. Direct exploitation of organisms 3. Climate change 4. Pollution 5. Invasive alien species

2019 Report from Farm Animal Investment Risk and Return (FAIRR): An ethical investment network- 10 areas of serious global aquaculture concerns

1. Coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms 2. Fish Feed Supply — reliance on wild caught forage fish (fishermen catch all the prey fish so they have something to feed aquaculture system) 3. Habitat Destruction and Biodiversity Loss: Where and how fish are farmed can make all the difference. 4. Disease 5. Antibiotic Use

The Benefits of High Biodiversity:

1. Ecosystem Resilience → AMERICA CHESTNUT IS THE CLASSIC EXAMPLE ; america chestnut part of american forest but there was a blight that killed most of the trees. Therefore, diversity allows some species to be lost within an ecosystem but still the ecosystem maintains stability. 2. Ecosystem Services For example, primary producers on land and in the ocean make the oxygen you breathe.

Federal Coastal Zone Management Act (1972 with subsequent amendments)

1. Established a national program within the Department of Commerce to "encourage" Coastal States to develop and implement coastal zone management plans. 2. Funds were authorized for cost-sharing grants to states to develop their programs

Motivating Factors can be summarized here to do the right thing...

1. It's My Ocean - It's my life support system and I have a right to defend what keeps me alive 2. Civic Duty - You now know more about the imperiled state of the planet than 99.99% of all people on earth and you have a civic duty to raise your voice and express what you have learned 3. Humans are Not Separate From Nature - even a self-interested person should want to keep the global ecosystem healthy 4. Generational Responsibility (Generational Morality) - What this generation does with regard to CO2 will affect 1,000 generations to come (more generations than we have had since recorded human history) 5. Spirituality - to maintain a connection with a divine presence that is experienced through what I call "body tingling awe" that one has in the presence of truly pristine nature (e.g., hiking in an old growth forest dripping with organic life, standing on the edge of the Grand Canyon or diving on a coral reef) → god speaks in nonverbal terms

Greenhouse gas production from meat production:

1. Methane Release • ruminant digestion • manure decomposition 2. Carbon dioxide release • deforestation for agricultural land use 3. Nitrous oxide release • crops subjected to heavy fertilizer

Why A Bystander (You) Should Speak Up...

1. Most people do not understand that a healthy ocean (and atmosphere) supports their own personal wellbeing - e.g., half the oxygen you breathe comes from the ocean. 2. In my opinion, the ocean (planet) would be a whole lot better off if everyone would embrace a personal sense of connection to (ownership of) the ocean (planet). • That way, when some group/company messes things up (e.g., oil spill or overfishing), it would not be seen as messing up some other poor guy's stuff, but rather as messing with the life support system that YOU depend on for your OWN life! 3. YOU have every right to yell and scream when YOUR ocean and YOUR atmosphere are messed with!

The Argo Merchant oil tanker

1. Oil persisted in the water column for up to 5 months. 3. High mortality of pelagic fish eggs and larvae, which were coated with oil.

US Jurisdictional Regions

1. State Governments Manage ocean resources from shoreline to 3 miles offshore • Texas and Gulf Coast of Florida jurisdiction extends 9 miles 2. Federal Government Manage ocean resources from 3 miles offshore to 200 miles offshore 3. International Waters beyond 200 miles (The High Seas) are open to all countries for exploration and exploitation with some regulation via international treaties/ agreements

The Pew Charitable Trust's Oceans Commission and the US Commission on Ocean Policy:

1. The Pew Charitable Trust's Oceans Commission (2003) and the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy (2004) 2. Both Groups concluded that U.S. ocean resources are currently at great risk and each commissioner recommended (among other things) • a comprehensive overhaul of the agencies that currently make ocean policy BOTH CAME TO SAME CONCLUSION AND WE NEED COMPREHENSIVE OVERHALL The Basic Problem Identified By Both Commissions... 1. It has been difficult to create a coherent management policy for the wide range of stakeholders that use the coastal environment because up until now regulation has been carried out by a large number of independent federal agencies In short, there are way too many cooks in the kitchen working completely independently of each other - and often counter to each other's goals.

Two big issues are at stake in the arctic

1. Vast oil reserves under the sea floor of the arctic 2. Shipping lanes between US East Coast or Western Europe and all of Asia

What is Needed to Slow the Decline?

1. We cannot solve the threats of human-induced climate change and loss of biodiversity in isolation. 2. We still have time - though very limited - to turn things around. It requires massive changes, from removing harmful subsidies that lead to the destruction of nature and future warming of the Earth, to enacting laws that encourage the protection of nature to rethinking the definition of a rewarding life. 3. We need to redirect positive government subsidies towards more sustainable and regenerative farming practices. 4. The world needs to recognize that loss of biodiversity and human-induced climate change are not only an environmental issue, but also a moral issue.

Just do it

1. When I was 19 years old and on a solo motorcycle ride from Washington State to Colorado, I had this pretty intense realization that I was an adult now — and that I was now in charge of everything in my life!! I realized then that if I wanted to keep riding past Colorado, I could just choose do it! I was now in charge of everything! This very special personal moment of finally seeing that I could choose and then act, changed everything for me!! • If I could give everybody in this class just one thing - one gift - it would be to give you a deep-seated sense of being free to act on your own ideas - because all sorts of good things for your life will follow from that one gift! 2. I think lots of people do not act on issues they care about because they do not realize they have the power to act and instead they just mindlessly go with the flow of what others are doing around them. 3. If you think something is important, I dare you to act on it. I dare you to take what you know and step forward and act! If you act, I promise you will feel super empowered and you will be filled with a personal sense of integrity that will enrich your life forever!

It's Also Your Civic Duty To Speak Up...

1. You may have personally worked hard to get to Cornell, and to do well at Cornell, but without past efforts of many others in this country/world/society, you would not have had the social and institutional support structure that allowed you to reach your full potential to be here today. 2. Consequently, you owe this country/world/society something back in return! 3. A big contribution would be to make your informed/knowledgeable voice heard on issues of importance to this country/world/society. 4. A healthy democracy runs on an informed citizenry and you are now among the best and brightest and most informed citizens in the world on the issues of ocean conservation and global warming! 5. You are CORNELL students! You are among the best and the very brightest this world can produce!!! • YOUR opinions are super valuable and they need to be heard!!! Indeed - it is the only way things can be made better! 6. You Are all Academics Now and it's now time for You to "Step Upon the Stage" to raise your voice and share your own valuable ideas with the world on how best to move things forward!

Global Temperatures Anomalies since the Industrial Era:

1.1 C Rise in Global Average Temperature

species that have been identified and described

1.3-1.8 million

critical threshold in climate system, to avoid melting of natural methane clathrates

1.8 C So far, monitoring and satellite data do not indicate large increase in methane flux to atmosphere from melting methane clathrates (or from melting permafrost)... at least through 2018 or so. Most methane from melting clathrates dissolves in ocean and is consumed by bacteria.... BUT, if melting rate increases, larger bubbles might reach atmosphere. Perhaps remains high risk as further warming above 2 deg C ?

What can you do

1.Vote 2. Raise your voice 3 We are all different, so each of us should raise our voice in a way that is best suited to the individual

overfished fisheries grew from ___% in 1975 to about ___% in 2015

10% in 1975 to about 33% in 2015

Early stages

10,000 years ago, humans and cliamte change started mass extinction by destroying large mammals around the world It recently has come to the oceans

Whales:

1000 years ago, there were likely millions of whales in the world's oceans North Atlantic Right Whale: First whale species to be commercially hunted by humans Huge fishery started 1000 years ago

A newer FAO report in 2013 puts the livestock contributes ___ to total annual GHG emission, similar to the amount generated by all transport put together.

14.5%

Total greenhouse gas emissions from animal agriculture is ____ of annual emissions

15%

West Antarctica has lost

18% of is ice sheet volume over the last two decades.

Atmospheric CO2 variations throughout history

180 ppm ⇒ ICE AGE (glacial) 280 ppm⇒ OUT OF ICE AGE (interglacial) Humans have driven this to 419 ppm

ATMOSPHERIC CO2 concentration increase

2 to 3 ppm each year

CO2 Energy Imbalance

2 watts/m2 2 Joules of heat energy per second is accumulating over each square meter of the earth.

Amount of agricultural land devoted to growing feed for livestock,

2/3; while only 8 percent is used to grow food for direct human consumption.

Cornell's history of climate activism

2001: The Kyoto Now! Student Organization protested in front of Day Hall. After 3 days, President Hunter Rawlings relented and agreed to reduce Cornell's carbon emissions consistent with the Kyoto Protocol. Cornell was the first university in the nation to commit to Kyoto Protocol emission reductions!!!

Climate extremes have become more frequency

7,348 major natural disasters around the world 1.23 million people killed $2.97 trillion in global economic losses. By comparison, 1980-1999, had 4,212 natural disasters, claiming 1.19 million lives and causing $1.63 trillion in economic losses.

Cornell's Sustainability Future Timeline

2017-2022: Energy Conservation • Building Standards • Campus Engagement • Climate Literacy • Fleet Solution • Ground-Source Heat Evaluations • Renewable Power Projects (Wind and Solar) 2022: • Cornell University Borehole Observatory Test Well (CUBO): Completed this Summer! • If Viable (5-7 well pairs) 2027: Fully Implement Campus Heating Solution • Advance Other Carbon Reduction Efforts 2035: Reach Carbon Neutrality!

Changes in the Antarctica:

3. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass, likely due to warmer water deep in the ocean near the coast.

30 BY 30 ; 50 BY 50

30 PERCENT OF OCEAN AND LAND AREA BY END OF DECADE 50 PERCENT OF OCEAN AND LAND AREA BY 2050 LET THE GROW LUSH AND GROW AND MAINTAIN BIODIVERSITY

Between - percent of the global extent of critical marine habitats such as seagrasses, mangroves and coral reefs have already been destroyed.

30 and 35

"Changing one's diet to replace 50 percent of animal products with edible plants like legumes, nuts and tubers results in

30 percent reduction in an individual's food-related water footprint." "Going vegetarian, a better option in many respects, reduces the water footprint by almost 60 percent."

Small Forage Fish (e.g., sardine, anchovy menhaden) account for ____ of the total wild seafood caught globally.

40%; ALMOST HALF OF ALL OF THE TONNAGE OF FISH IS NOWADAYS SMALL FORAGE FISH (being used to feed aquaculture fish), APEX PREADTORS ARE TAKEN OUT

Amount of CO2 in atmosphere

419 ppm

aquaculture rise; percentage of global fish propduction

47% of global fish production

Size of the Gulf BlowOut

5 times bigger than the Exxon Valdez:

Concentration of Atmospheric CO2 increase percentage since industrial era

50%

Progress on 2035 Project

6 SOLAR FARMS- providing 20% of campus electricity and 100% on sunny day Reduced onsite CO2 emissions by 54% since 2008 (uses natural gas that emits co2) Student engagement across campus Cornell Borehole Observatory (CUBO) Completed Summer 2022

This means that we are currently consuming

70% more of earth's resources annually than can be replenish each year - so we are currently degrading the life support system of planet earth. Future scenarios show that if our current consumption trends continue, by 2040, we'll need two Earths to support humanity!!! THAT IS ONE TOO MANY

The current estimate of total species on earth

8.7 million plant and animal species.

Current negative trends in biodiversity and ecosystems will undermine progress towards

80% of the the Sustainable Development Goal

World-Wide Decline in Top Predator Fish percentage

90%

Global Fishery Exploitation 1975−2015:

93% of the major world fisheries are currently either maximally exploited or overfished

How much farm-raised fish by 2030?

A 2014 World Bank report predicts that 62% of the world's seafood will be farm-raised by 2030

Climate Change Means

A Change in These Aggregate Patterns

Historical Problems with Marine Regulation and the Road Forward...

A Reminder of the US Coastal Zone's Importance... 1. Home to more than half of all Americans 2. Generates an estimated $8 trillion per year in economic activity, and supports 69 million US jobs It is vital to protect the coastal environment so that it can sustain these vital economic benefits for today and for future generations

What success requires {TQ}

A balance between top-down government regulation and bottom-up self-control. → You need both of these ; not just pure government control to make everything right because then people become corrupt; You also need responsible citizens to get involved

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

A few dozen naturally occurring species of phytoplankton (mainly dinoflagellates, but also diatoms and cyanobacteria) produce toxic chemicals that can kill other marine life including fish, birds and mammals. At high levels, HABS can kill fish and mammals Toxins are concentrated to high levels in shellfish so even modest blooms can be harmful to humans that consume shellfish that have been growing on waters with low-level blooms There is evidence suggesting that the increases in frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms is tied in increases in nutrient fluxes.

Dynamite/Bomb Fishing in Coral Reefs:

A lot of dynamite fishing going on (illegal) You throw a stick of dynamite and blow up coral reefs and evaporate fish close by Fish on the periphery are concussed and float to the top

HOW MUCH FOOD WE EAT IS AQUACULTURE?

ABOUT HALF OF SEAFOOD WE EAT (47%) IS AQUACULTURE

Example of species in ocean going extinct

ALTANTIC OYSTER: Fishery collapse in chesapeake in 1890s Disease caused collapses until 20 years

What is Climate?

Aggregate Pattern of Weather -Hot and cold - Humid and dry - Cloudy and clear

The Paris COP-21 Climate Action Consensus Statement

Agreed Upon by Essentially Every Leader of Every Nation on Planet Earth 1) We aspire to limit warming by 1.5 C To reach this goal, we must rapidly reduce global emissions to half by 2030 and net zero by 2050 2) To maintain stable human societies we must not exceed 2C To reach this goal, we must steadily reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050

The Paris COP-21 Climate Action Consensus Statement

Agreed Upon by Essentially Every Leader of Every Nation on Planet Earth 1. We aspire to limit warming to 1.5 oC • to reach this goal, we must rapidly reduce global emissions by half by 2030 and net zero by 2050 2. To maintain stable human societies we must limit warming to 2 C • to reach this goal, we must steadily reduce global carbon emissions to net zero by 2050 1. Limiting warming to 1.5C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes. 2. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being, making it easier to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Sea Level RIse Along US Coastline growth

An additional foot by 2050 - "We're unfortunately headed for a flood regime shift."

Regional Planning...

An alternate to Spatial Planning under the Revised/Final Implementation Plan The final plan established regional planning bodies that would develop "marine plans" to provide information and/or to "describe future desired conditions" and guide decision making relating to the use of ocean resources. • The final plan clarifies that participation by states, tribes, and fishery councils on regional planning bodies will be voluntary, and that a regional planning body will not be established if "all States within a region choose not to participate." • The Plan emphasizes that regional planning bodies "are not regulatory bodies and have no independent legal authority to regulate or otherwise direct federal, state, tribal, or local government actions."

Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations CAFOs

Animal waste is going to accumulate into manure ponds which will leak nitrogen-phosporous compounds into river and streams nearby that make their way to rivers and eventually the coastal environment Fertilizer that washes off vast cornfields and organic nitrogen and phosphorous that leaches from CAFO manure ponds eventually drains into the Gulf of Mexico

Sea Level Rise Increase

Average Sea Level is Currently about ¼ Meter above pre-industrial levels

Magnitude of the problem of bycatch:

As much as 70% of sea life scraped up by the trawlers is undesirable and discarded back into the ocean - most often as dead animals Each year Trawling affects an area 150X greater than the global area of forest that is cleared

"demand management"

As supplies inevitably become depleted sustainable practices are encouraged through • Demand Management is achieved by promoting reduced consumption, using renewable resources where possible, and encouraging practices that minimize resource intensity while maximizing resource productivity.

Current State of the Planet:

Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 50% Global Average Temepratures 1.1 C warmer than preindustrial era Humans are now more powerful than the orbital variations at drove out past ice ages

Tertiary Treatment:

BEST TREATMENT, removes solids, dissolves organics, and plant nutrients

BIG IDEAS OF 2030 Project

BIG IDEAS Faculty and staff brought together

SMALL SHIFTS IN THE MEAN PRODUCE...

BIG SHIFTS IN THE EXTREME Making a small shift in the mean temperature produces dramatic change in the probability of temperature extremes

1Tragedy of the commons

Basically states that having open access to a common resource (e.g., fish in the ocean) will Inevitably lead to the collapse of the resource

Why the oceans may be susceptible to the 6th mass extinction:

Because of climate change, species are changing geographic ranges • Changes in abundance Most diverse ecosystem in species, most species live on coral reefs If we get rid of coral reefs, we badly effect ocean biodiversity, which is happening

The High Freshwater Demand of Meat Production...

Beef has an overall water footprint of roughly four million gallons per ton produced.

Orbital variations (Milankovitch Forcing)

Best orbital variations could do was drive atmospheric CO2 up to 280 ppm

What is biodiversity?

Broadly Speaking it is the collective genetic knowledge derived from evolving species coping with vastly varying environmental conditions that have occurred over the past 4 billion years. Types:1. Species 2. Ecosystem 3.genetic diversity

Note About the Current Lack of Shark Regulation...

Bycatch can be a highly subjective definition. For example, Spanish and Portuguese longliners specifically target sharks through the use of special bait, steel lines and special lights next to the hooks... The distinction is very important, as commercially targeted shark fisheries must be managed with quotas and other instruments according to the Common Fisheries Policy, as is done for swordfish and tuna. But many shark catches are not managed at all because they are mostly still regarded as bycatch and so catch limits are almost non-existent. Bycatch not regulated ; this is how shark catches are allowed

What is hard about nonpoint source pollution?

HARD TO REGULATE

A Line in the Sand:

Much of the CO2 we put in the atmosphere lingers there for up to 10,000 years This generation now faces a proverbial line in the sand to either cross or not cross these warming thresholds.

The Convention on the International Trade of Endangered Species (CITES):

CITES is an international agreement that many consider to be one of the best last chances of protecting some of the most threatened species in the ocean For example, some are tying to limit the Bluefin Tuna industry by going around ICCAT and instead using CITES. Some good CITES News for Sharks:- Parties to the Convention of Intenratational Trade in Endagnred Species CITES voted this month to slimit or regulate nearly all species that are currently being traded for us in shark fin soup The decision is a "landmark in not only the number of species it covers, but in the amount of the trade that is going to be regulated," said Sue Lieberman, vice president of international policy for the Wildlife Conservation Society

Change in methane's views

COP 21 at PARIS → people did not care about methane COP 26 at GLASGOW → People cared more, recognized by Biden

World Fishery:

Capture and Aquaculture

TWO FACES OF CARBON:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) - climate system responds slowly to changes, but current emissions will influence climate for 100s of years; Methane (CH4) - much faster response by climate system, but methane's half-life in atmosphere only~12 years (for methane emitted today, half gone by 2034, 75% gone by 2046, 88% gone by 2058). 220 times more CO2 in atmosphere, but CH4 is 105 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas (by weight)

Renewables

Cheaper to build solar farms then fossil carbon energy plant Onshore and offshore wind also cheaper or comparable RENEWABLES ARE CHEAPER OR COMPARABLE

AR6 EXTREME WEATHER KEY POINTS

Climate Extremes: It is an "established fact" that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases "have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes". Heatwaves: It is virtually certain that "there has been increases in the intensity and duration of heatwaves and in the number of heatwave days at the global scale". Heavy rainfall: The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events "have likely increased at the global scale over a majority of land regions". Drought: "More regions are affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with increasing global warming". Tropical cyclones: "It is likely that the proportion of major TC intensities and the frequency of rapid intensification events have both increased globally over the past 40 years." Compoundevents: "Compound hot and dry conditions become more probable in nearly all land regions as global mean temperature increases." (e.g., heatwaves leading to forest fires)

Federal Water Pollution Control Act

Commonly known as the Clean Water Act 1. Requires that any discharge of a pollutant from a point source to the navigable waters of the United States or beyond must obtain a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit. • This Includes: sewage outfall, industrial discharge or ship discharges 2. Publicly owned sewage treatment facilities are required to be secondary treatment facilities (or better). • This requirement can be waived for discharge into marine waters with stringent criteria intended to assure their discharge will not adversely affect the marine environment.

Additional GHG Inventories

Cornell has committed to also account for upstream additions of greenhouse gasses resulting from methane leaked via fracking Upstream methane leakage is currently estimated to be between 50K and 160K Metric Tons of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) added to the atmosphere via upstream production and transport.

Cornell University Borehole Observatory (CUBO)

Completed: Summer 2022 Drill Depth: 2 miles (3.2 km) Temperature at Depth: 75 C to 100 C Native Rock Permeability at Depth: Low

The Overall Driver of Human Impact on Earth System

Consumption of Biological and Physical Resources in the Effort to Achieve "Wellbeing"

Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sewage Treatment Facilities Employ a....

Cumulative Process

Ocean Acidification:

Currently about 28% above pre industrial levels. With business as usual rates of CO2 emissions: •Ocean acidity will increase by 170% by the end of the century • Within decades polar oceans will be corrosive to unprotected calcareous shells of marine organisms •Within decades tropical coral reef growth will be hampered or stopped altogether. CLIMATE METRICS USED TO BE ALWAYS MEASURED AT "END OF CENTURY RATES" NOW IT IS MATTER OF DECADES

United Nations Effort to Protect the Biodiversity of The High Seas:

Currently, there is no legal mechanism to establish marine protected areas (MPAs) on the high seas There was an opportunity this past summer for countries to address these gaps in global ocean governance and protect marine life in the high seas. A legally binding treaty for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction would have allowed highly protected, cross-sector MPAs in international waters to be established. → no convention in high seas to establish MPAs; this treaty failed International Commission of the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna (ICCAT): responsible for conservation and management of tunas, sharks, and highly migratory species in the Atlantic Ocean

Sustainable Development:

Development that meets the needs of the preset generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. [I would say this statement is one of the most important points I hope you will take away from this class]

Non-point Source Pollution

Diffuse source of pollution such as caused by rainfall moving over and through the ground that carries natural and human-made pollutants that are finally deposited into lakes, rivers, wetlands, coastal waters, and even underground sources of drinking water. These pollutants include • Oil, grease, and toxic chemicals from urban runoff • Excess fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides from agricultural lands and residential areas • Bacteria and nutrients from livestock, pet wastes, and faulty septic systems • Salt from irrigation practices and acid drainage from abandoned mines • Atmospheric deposition (acid rain)

How can we attribute climate change to humans?

Dozens of different numerical models created by different groups of scientists around the world get basically the same answer for their numerical experiments provides strong evidence that humans are largely responsible for the increase in global temperature observed since the industrial

Cost of ESH

EARTH SOURCE HEATING SAVE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN

An Example of a Cornell Undergraduate Acting on Her Understanding of the Social Justice of Living Sustainably...:

ELIZABETH COURSE volunteered and committed to the environment The theme is how we need to be conscious of our decisions, with a slight focus on plastic pollution and our oceans.

Actions to help agricultural runoff

Eat less factory meat Advocate for eliminating corn ethanol subsidies (CORN ETHANOL IS BAD)

Ecological Footprint

Ecological footprint is the equivalent area required to provide the goods and services consumed by individuals, nations or the global population as a whole • using an area equivalence expressed as global hectares, the ecological footprint expresses how much of nature's renewable bioproductive capacity is currently being appropriated.

The Increased Atmospheric CO2 created an...

Energy imbalance Analogy: - Rolling up the window on your car further → SAME SOLAR ENERGY COMING IN → LESS LONG WAVELENGTH ENERGY LEAVING THE EARTH THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE

How students can get involved with 2030 project

Environmental and sustainability major and minor Climate change minor CALS Global Fellows Program COP meetings Atkinson center ; Summer internship work with NGO Lund fellows program for regenerative agriculture

Cornell 2030 Project

Faculty expertise in every college, every school university wide mobilization supporting ambitious high-impact climate-related research, partnerships, and instructional opportunities Expertise to provide technological, policy, and market innovation To be the people creating change in teh future Need integrated solution Problems of here, now, and future This is a decisive decade for action Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 2005 levels Reduce emissions of methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas, by 30% from 2020 levels 60% of global climate change Remove atmospheric greenhouse gasses at the rate of at least half a gigaton per year from the atmosphere Thematic highlights → Food and farms of the future Energy of the future (Transforming energy systems for people and nature) Materials of the future (Creating next generation industrial technology to end and reverse emissions) Societies of the future (Informing policies, businesses, and movements for climate action) Incredible agriculture and food expertise

good proxy indicator for fish abundance

Fish caught per 100 fish hooks set

Bottom Trawling:

Fishing method used to collect organisms on or near the seafloor. Bottom of net heavily weighted and dragged across seafloor

Fossil Fuel Affect of Climate Change

Fossil fuels are the major cause of climate change (70% or more. Agriculture and deforestation also important)

Common Links Causing the Probnlems:

Free/Open Access to Common Resources One of the main links in what is going wrong is the free and open access to common resources: both ocean and atmosphere A broadly held misperception of humanities place in the natural world A great many people mistakenly think that humans are separate from nature... A great many people now grow up in large cities and have very limited direct experience with the natural world and so they mistakenly think that somehow humans control everything and are exempt from the laws of nature. On a related note, I also think we need to get past the idea that ecosystem conservation is just a benevolent gift to other species that we can choose to provide when we are feeling generous Generational Selfishness We must now scale up this idea and ask generations to live within their means

Sewage Outfall Pipe

Getting outalls offshore and below the thermocline (MIXING) reduces the amount of effluent reaching the surface layer of the ocean

Lingering Worry...

Getting things fixed will depend on all of YOU and Your Generation When I Was Your Age — I thought nothing could go wrong and that somehow things always magically just worked out nicely in the end. I would ride my motorcycle 100 mph and not think much of it... As I have grown older, I have come to realize that life is often full of things that don't work out nicely - and that there is a lot of pure cause-and-effect in this world. If you do something dumb, the consequences inevitably comes back and bite you - seemingly without any compassion. I worry a bit that some of you (maybe a lot of you) might think that this whole global warming and sustainability thing will just somehow magically work itself out on its own. My own life experience tells me that pure cause-and-effect will be the actual case - so please do not be complacent!

Global Fish Watch:

Global Fish Watch: • Utilizes the Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) • Designed to detect Illegal and Under Reported (IUU) Fishing Activities

Globally Fisheries Subsidies:

Globally, fisheries subsidies amount to about $35bn per year to make many high seas fisheries profitable Subsidies are directly driving overfishing and associated environmental degradation.

Sustainability:

Goal to find the sweet spot that balances three needs 1. The need to protect the environment 2. The need for economic development 3. The need for social justice within and among nations and between generations

The bad news methane continues to increase...

Good news is that reducing methane emissions is one of the most cost effective ways to cut emissions Possible to cut emissions by 45% by 2030, avoiding 0.3 C warming

heavy precipitation, drought, and heatwaves

Heavy precipitation are going to increase with every 0.1 C warming Droughts are going to increase with every 0.1 C warming Heatwaves are pretty sensitive to increasing temperatures , going to increase with every 0.1C warming Heatwaves are going to be a big change as we warm the planet

drill-baby-drill"

Historically, humanity has responded to a demand for more resources by trying to increase supply

Quadruple Bottom Line Sustainability Decision Making

How cornell makes sustainability decision Can we generate enough renewable energy to operate the campus? Is it affordable? Will it help with climate change? The Living Laboratory We need CORAGEOUS LEADERSHIP TO GET US TO CARBON NEUTRALITY

Magnitudes of Human and Natural Climate Forcing at Decade Time Scales

Human Forcing through addition of greenhouse gases is much larger than any of the Natural Forcing components — By a long ways!!!!!

Population Growth

Human Population Growth: The UN projects the global human population will increase from 8 billion in 2022 to about • 10 billion by 2050 • 11 billion by 2100.

Gear Modification

If done right, it is a win-win proposition for everyone Bycatch of endangered species is reduced Fishermen are not asked to reduce fishing effort of intended species Device that scares away sea birds

Temperature Rise Effect on Arctic

If temperatures rise by 2C - the upper limit set by the Paris Agreement - the Arctic has a one-in-five chance of seeing its first ice-free summer in 2035. If global temperatures are limited to 1.5C, the Arctic is "very unlikely" to see its first ice-free summer before 2065.

Industrial Farming Method

Important Contributor to Increased Fertilizer Pollution... KNOW THAT POULTRY, PORK, EGGS (MORE THAN HALF OF IT) COME FROM INDUSTRIAL FARMING METHODS WHICH IS A PROBLEM

Sustainability in ecology and with humans

In Ecology: How biological systems remain diverse and productive over times For Humans: The potential for long-term (multi-generational maintenance of wellbeing) depends on the wellbeing of the natural world and the responsible use of natural resources

The basic problem with high nutrient loading:

Increased nutrient loads (nitrogren/phosphorous fertilizer) in coastal waters stimulates exceptional algal growth. Algal biomass that accumulates in surface waters eventually dies and sinks to the bottom of the water column where microbes consume it — and in the process also consume oxygen More nutrients leads to more algae and this leads to more oxygen consumption.

Heavy Metal Pollution in Minamata Bay, Japan (1950s - 1960s)

Industrial mercury was discharged into the bay and it entered the fish populations that were consumed by the local residence leading to terrible birth defects

According to the IPCC* 6th Assessment Report (AR6)...

It is Unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.

WHY NOT 100% RENEWABLE???

It is good news that renewable energy is cheaper LCOE (Levelized cost of energy) Need to look at system cost , average cost of a power system including all plants AS A POWER SYSTEM APPROACHES 100% WIND AND SOLAR, SYSTEM COST WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND RELIABLY TO MAINTAIN

Forage Fish

Keystone Species in Marine Ecosystems: Forage fish are a key to the survival of apex predators like Tuna and Sharks, but also many sea birds and large marine mammals

Erin Meyer-Gutbrod was TA in the Oceanography Class in 2011 She got arrested (on purpose) in September in her attempt to change the world for the better! She protested against the

Keystone XL Oil Pipeline → The XL pipeline under Obama transported oil

PROBLEM WITH FADS

LOTS OF BYCATCH AND ENTANGLE MARINE LIFE FADS don't just attract target species FADs increase bycatch by between 500 and 1000 percent when compared to nets set on free-swimming schools. A Big Marine Debris Problem Tens of Thousands of FADs are abandoned every year

Cornell 2035 Climate Action Plan Goals

Lake source cooling in summer Earth source heating in winter Solar, wind, and water for energy

LULUCF:

Land use Land use change and Forestry Total land use takes co2 out of the atmosphere or contributes to it US Forests take out about 800 million tons of CO2 per year

Shark Finning:

Large business fueled by demand for shark fin soup Billion dollar business

Disease and Antibiotic Use:

Large-scale antibiotic use in farmed animals is contributing to a reservoir of resistant bacteria. The majority of aquaculture production takes place in countries with "permissive regulations" and limited environmental monitoring. Much of the debate about antibiotic resistance focuses on two specific issues; 1. The practice of delivering antibiotics prophylactically in small sub therapeutic doses in feed as a means to enhance the growth or prevent disease in fish and animals. 2. The specific need to curb the use of critically important antibiotic used in the treatment of human health. "With the world's population expected to expand by 2.2 billion by 2050, it's imperative that the industry adopts a more sustainable production model. Business as usual in the aquaculture sector is not an option."

Perspective on warming...

Last Ice age was only 4 C cooler

Bycatch analogy

Like Hunting Deer with Hand Grenades... Imagine if a deer hunter killed nearly every bird, mammal, reptile and insect in his/her path. And simply left them lying dead and dying on the ground as they walked away with their single deer in hand.

Major coral reefs to the modern world:

Lives in clear water to photosynthesize Reefs are dying around the world and no longer adding mass

Thriving in a Sustainable Future...:

Living "sustainably" does NOT mean sacrificing comfort. Quite the contrary, it can mean a much richer life!

Longline ByCatch

Longline fishing consists of a line of baited hooks often stretching more100 kilometers in length. Each longline can have several thousand baited hooks in a single set. The fishing method is intended to catch things like swordfish and tuna, but it also unintentionally catches seabirds, turtles and sharks Sharks have also been severely impacted by longline fishing. Sharks have slow growth and reproductive rates that makes them particularly vulnerable to overfishing.

Habitat Destruction and Biodiversity Loss

MANGROVE FORESTS

Trump Admisiontation:

Made executive order to rescind obamas executive order Focused on growing oceans economy Comment from national resource defense council: "There is no longer a requirement to work with states to provide for coordinated ocean protection and there is no longer a national policy to promote healthy ocean ecosystems." Comments from marine ecologist Jane Lubchenco, who led the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under President Obama "The Trump policy represents a significant step backward, a throwback to the 1960s when the primary focus was on aggressively expanding the use of the ocean with the assumption that it is so immense, so bountiful that it must be inexhaustible." Put another way, the new policy reflects a shift from 'use it without using it up' to a very short-sighted and cavalier 'use it aggressively and irresponsibly."

Plastic Pollution

Marine Debris Gets into fishes which cant digest it Plastic in subtropical gyre regions

Ocean Policy Committee Members Will Address Three Priorities:

Maximize the environmental, economic, and social benefits the ocean provides to Americans Develop an ocean-climate action plan to focus agency actions on ocean-based mitigation of climate change effects Identify strategic direction for ocean science and technology NOTE: These priorities are largely consistent with the original National Ocean Policy Goals US Ocean Climate Action Plan (2022): The Committee will also develop a National Sustainable Ocean Plan that will help guide sustainable economic development of U.S. ocean and coastal waters. The plan will integrate environmental justice considerations NOTE: These priorities are largely consistent with the original National Ocean Policy Goals

Natural gas not a bridge fuel because

Methane from fracking was emitted by producing natural gas was as bad as coal, so natural gas not a bridge fuel Lots of methane from natural gas from shale gas, more than coal -New York to zero emissions by building out wind, solar, and hydro -Reducing energy use by efficiency to get ourselves to zero by 2050 Nuclear super expensive GREENHOUSE GAS FOOTPRINT OF GAS JUST AS BAD AS COAL

Methane Role and How It Works

Methane is an important greenhouse gases... it fills in "holes" in the infra red spectrum not filled by water vapor and CO2 Absorbing infrared radiation that co2 and water vapor do not get 100 x more powerful than co2

Where does atmospheric methane come from?

Multiple sources, both natural and human-caused. Two major sources of methane: • Methane formed in rock formations over geological time frame • Methane formed by decomposition of organic matter by microbes in absence of oxygen

Rapid rise in methane from 2008-18 not from tundra or clathrates → WHY?

NOT FROM COWS; NOT CAUSING METHANE Happening mainly in North America WHAT IS HAPPENING IS SHALE GAS REVOLUTION SINCE 2006 (FRACKING)

Hopeful Signs

National Academy of Science 2021 Report: Outlines Pathway to Net Zero Emissions Policies to get the US to net zero emission would produce a cleaner energy system, high-quality jobs and improve international competitiveness The report warns, however, that this will require heavy political lifting by Congress and future administrations. June 6, 2022: The White House announced that it was invoking the Defense Production Act to boost manufacturing of certain technologies such as solar panels, heat pumps, and transformers for the electrical grid.

PARIS COP-21 : Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs.

Nations responsible for 90% of global emissions came up with their respective pledges at COP21 • Analysis of the INDCS has suggested that these pledges would only be enough to hold the world to about 2.7C or 3C of warming. • One of the key components of any Paris agreement was to institute a system of review of the emissions targets every five years, with a view to ratcheting them upwards.

PARIS INCDS

Nations responsible for more than 90% of global emissions came up with their targets at COP21 - known in the UN jargon as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs. • Analysis of the INDCS has suggested that these pledges would only be enough to hold the world to about 2.7C or 3C of warming.

We need to take emissions to net-zero by 2050

Need to reduce emissions and also remove co2 from the atmosphere

Fihsery crash:

No longer profitable to fish in certain places In 1950, out of all world's fisherys, half were underdeveloped, 40% were developing, 10% were fully exploited TODAY, no underveleoped fisherys, 30% fully exploited, 40% over exploited, 30% GONE,

Does the IPCC exaggerate for a political agenda?

No, IPCC LOWER AMOUNT OF ALARMING THAN IT ACTUALLY IS, THEY ARE NOT EXAGGERATING

largest source of oil discharge

Nonpoint Sources such as household drains and runoff from urban roadways.

Agricultural Runoff-

Nutrient Pollution Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) Nutrient pollution is considered one of America's most widespread, costly, and challenging problems → caused by excess nitrogen and phosphorus in the air and water from agricultural runoff

What to know about Cornell's cliamte activism

ONLY KNOW THAT KYOTO NOW STUDENTS STARTED THIS AND THERE WERE A SERIES OF STEPS THAT MOVED US FROM VAGUE PLEDGE OF 2050 TO WE NEED TO GO TO 2035 TO FINALLY, LETS GET A PLAN IN PLACE.

Point Spills→

Oil pollution from oil tankers spills to catastrophic damage to local waters

Earth's Groundwater Basins Now Under Threat... due to water used in animal agriculure. Animal agriculutre has high water footprint

One Third

National Academy of Science 2021 Report:

Outlines Pathway to Net Zero Emissions Policies to get the US to net zero emission would produce a cleaner energy system, high-quality jobs and improve international competitiveness The report warns, however, that this will require heavy political lifting by Congress and future administrations. CORAGEOUS LEADERSHIP

CASE 1 OF 6TH MASS EXTINCTION:

Overall, there was an over harvest and major population decline in oysters

Federal Marine Mammal Protection Act (1979 with subsequent amendments)

PROTECTS ALL MARINE MAMMALS <EM> Established federal responsibility to conserve marine mammals 1. Department of Interior is responsible for sea otter, walrus, polar bear. 2. Department of Commerce (NOAA), is responsible for cetaceans and pinnipeds (e.g. seals, sea lions), other than the walrus. 3. With certain specified exceptions, the Act established a moratorium on the taking and importation of all marine mammals as well as products taken from them

Recovering America's Wildlife Act

Passed the House (H.R.2773) Would provide nearly $1.4 billion annually to protect vulnerable wildlife and help them recover. The Senate version (S.2372) has more than 40 cosponsors, with strong support from both parties. The Senate bill is ready for a floor vote.

Sewage Outfall: Point source or nonpoint?

Point source pollution

Arctic Sea Loss

Polar regions are especially sensitive due to loss of albedo affect Some parts of arctic, temperature rise is four times higher than global average

CAUSES OF REEF DEGRADATION:

Pollution (eutrophication): Dumping a bunch of nutrients in ocean that feeds primary producers, takes all oxygen out of water Overfishing Physical destruction Ocean acidification Climate change Ongoing changes on reefs • Bleaching • Disease • Overgrowth by macroalgae • Death of corals

Positive and negative of cornell's additions to greenhouse gasses

Positive: Whenever onsite emissions are reduced, there is the possibility that a roughly 160K equivalent amount of leaked methane would also be reduced. This means, when we make this reduction there is a doubling effect, we can reduce the use of natural gas and the emissions of methane. Negative: Cornell will be stuck with a potentially large shadow upstream methane emission problem, until the natural gas power plant is finally shut down and replaced with a completely renewable source of heat and electricity. Getting rid of the natural gas power plant, has always been the goal of Cornell's Climate Action Plan.

Paris COP 21 Nationally Determined Commitments (NDC)

President Biden announced a US goal of cutting emissions 50% by 2030. This would begin to put the world on a path for achieving a 1.5 oC limit!!

A Secondary Treatment Facility requires...

Primary Treatment is done first, so a Secondary Treatment Facility implies that both solids and dissolved organics have been removed

Is there a role for green hydrogen in our energy future?

Probably, yes, for on-site storage from surplus wind & solar electricity, and hard to decarbonize needs, such as steel manufacturing and perhaps long-distance transportation (trucks trains, & planes). But hydrogen should NEVER be used for heating homes & buildings (as is being promoted by oil & gas industry: far better to use electricity directly to power high-efficiency heat pumps.

Biden Administration Pledges to Conserve 30% of Land and Ocean by 2030

Protecting 30 percent of U.S. lands and ocean by 2030

Changes in drought and flooding patters under global warming

Regions that are typically dry due to strong evaporation will get more drier Regions that are typically wet due to strong precipitation will get wetter

methane numbers: natural vs. human-caused

RAPID RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC METHANE GLOBALLY SINCE 2008Natural = 220 Tg of C per year Human-caused = 375 Tg of C per year MORE THAN HALF OF CURRENT EMISSIONS OF METHANE ARE FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES, NOT NATURAL SOURCES RAPID RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC METHANE GLOBALLY SINCE 2008

The Great Pacific "Blob" of 2014-2015

REDUCED PRIMARY PRODUCTION AND SMALL FISH AND LARGER ANIMALS THAT FED ON THE SMALL FISH The Common Murre die-off occurred because the birds starved to death. Many of the effects of marine heatwaves are bottom-up in nature with reduced primary production reverberating up the food chain in the form of starvation of higher trophic animals.

IPCC AR6 Mitigation of Climate Change

Readily available technology across the economy could slash pollution in half by 2030, but it depends more on the level of political courage by government leaders to implement these changes 1) Solar and wind are the least expensive and most effective actions we can take. 2) Agriculture, industry, and parts of the transportation sector remain toughest to decarbonize 3) There are other pollutants besides carbon dioxide we have to worry about (e.g., methane) 4) Politics, Not Technology, Will Determine the Course of Climate Change

IPCC AR6 Mitigation of Climate Change

Readily available technology across the economy could slash pollution in half by 2030, but it depends more on the level of political courage by government leaders to implement these changes. Solar and wind are the least expensive and most effective action we can take. Agriculture, industry, and parts of the transportation sector remain toughest to decarbonize There are other pollutants besides carbon dioxide we have to worry about (e.g., methane) Politics, Not Technology, Will Determine the Course of Climate Change

Fish Feed Supply

Reliance on wild-caught forage fish (fishermen catch all the prey fish so they have something to feed the aquaculture system) 1. Fed Aquaculture includes finfish such as salmon. These fish produce waste byproducts and require feed, which often — though not always — contains wild-caught fish. → SALMON, GRIND UP FISH MEAL TO FEED TO FARMED SALMON 2. Unfed Aquaculture includes seaweed and shellfish such as mussels and oysters. Seaweed requires only sunlight, and mussels and oysters feed off microscopic plankton that naturally occurs in seawater, sustaining themselves without additional inputs. → SEAWEED, SHELLFISH, OYSTERS

IN THE 1500S:

Reports when travelers saw such large amounts of fish, cod, and biodiversity in the ocean

Secondary Treatment

SECOND BEST TREATMENT, removes solids and dissolved organics compounds effluent is brought into contact with oxygen This removes up to 90% of the total dissolved organic compounds. But most of the nitrogen and phosphorus remains in the sewage effluent from secondary treatment.

Frequency of CO2 Accumulation

SECOND-BY-SECOND HOUR BY HOUR DAY BY DAY YEAR BY YEAR,

Extremely large declines in shark populations in the ocean:

Scalloped hammerhead, white, and thresher sharks are each estimated to have declined by over 75% in just the past 15 years.

Timeline of sea level rise

Sea level is committed to rise for Centuries to Millennia and will remain elevated for thousands of years. -Miami vulnerable

Shark Decline

Sharks are right up there with coral reefs in exploited fish World wide 70% decline world wide

Short and Long-Term Impacts of big oil spills

Short: When you have these big oil spills, month or two of charismatic mega fauna that wash up and birds dying slow, painful deaths that last in the news for a month or two Long: THERE ARE LINGERING ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS BY OIL POLLUTION ON THE SCALE OF DECADES

CASE 2: NORTHERN COD

Singest most important fish from human view Large fish There are no cod that size anymore Before europeans got to North America, so much cod they could not believe it When factory ships came and started fishing, caused crash of cod fishery. NO COD FISHERY. ALMOST NONE

Point Source Pollution

Singularly identifiable source of pollution such as a direct industrial discharge like a smoke stack or sewage outfall pipe --> OIL SPILLS

Micro-Plastic

Small plastic particles/fibers less than 5 mm in diameter

The Only Barriers That Hold Us Back Are

Social Action and Courageous Leadership

MEASURES OF BIODIVERSITY AND DECLINE:

Species Richness Species Extinction Decline in Total Number of the world's most common species can also give insight into biodiversity decline.

How was the climate when human civilization developed? And what are we risking through human caused climate change?

Stable We now risk leaving that stability behind with human-caused climate change

Sticks vs. Carrots Legislation

Sticks- regulations, taxes, requirements on business Carrots- INCENTIVES TO BUILD OUT RENEWABLE ENERGIES; This is why the IRA Passed 1993: BTU tax legislation sticks • Passed House / Died in Senate • 1997:Kyoto Protocol-envisioned sticks international emissions trading • Never offered to Senate • 2009:Waxman-Markey Cap-and-trade • Passed House / Died in Senate • 2022: Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) - 99% "carrots" • Tax incentives, loans, procurement, grants -- $369 billion • Couples with Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, Nov. 2021) and CHIPS and Science Act (Aug. 2022) to form a comprehensive RDD&D program

How do we clean up plastic pollution?

Stop polluting with plastic first

What does the IPCC do?

TAKE HUGE AMOUNT OF WORK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTISTS AND SHARE IT WITH POLICY LEADERS Assessment Reports about the state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change Special Reports on topics agreed to by its member governments, as well as Methodology Reports that provide guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories The reports are drafted and reviewed in several stages, thus guaranteeing objectivity and transparency. The IPCC does not conduct its own research. IPCC reports are neutral, policy- relevant but not policy-prescriptive. The assessment reports are a key input into the international negotiations to tackle climate change. Created by the, the IPCC has 195 Member countries.

TRUE OR FALSE? FOREST GUMP IS A JERK FOR BOTTOM TRAWLING?

TRUE

The Current Decline in Biodiversity

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (ALL NATIONS MADE GOALS TO DO BY 2030) • Adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 • At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) • Central to these goals is a healthy/stable natural world sustained by a high level of biodiversity

US Ocean Climate Action Plan (2022):

The Committee will also develop a National Sustainable Ocean Plan that will help guide sustainable economic development of U.S. ocean and coastal waters. The plan will integrate environmental justice considerations

Two Final Points That Are Vitally Important to Remember- CORNELL 2035

The Cornell 2035 Climate Action Plan got its start by student's raising their voices in 2001 for what was socially just for their generation and for all future generations The 2035 Climate Action Plan continues a longstanding Cornell tradition of recognizing the socially just thing to do well before other universities — and then acting on it! "I would found an institution where any person can find instruction in any study."

Arctic Ecosystem Issues: Good and Bad for Fishpeople

The Good 1. increased fishing vessel access. 2. southern species are becoming more common • For example, Pacific salmon have moved into Arctic waters and may become an important food source for subsistence fishermen along Alaska's north coast. The Bad 3. New species entering an existing ecosystem may threaten existing populations. • For example, Atlantic cod have been displacing polar cod in the waters surrounding the Svalbard Archipelago. 4. Rising temperatures and an influx of fresh water from melting ice can cause rippling effects through the marine food chain. • For example, scientists project that ocean warming will cause shifts in the spawningandfeedinggrounds of several economically-important fish populations with potential downside consequences.

Long-Term Effects Ocean Acidification...

The InterAcademy Panel on International Issues (IAP) Issued the Following Statement in 2009 that was Endorsed by Seventy Academies of Science from Around the World,. Ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years

My Personal Experience With the Power of Bottom-Up Social Action...

The Kyoto Now! Student Organization at Cornell

U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

The Law of the Sea has been described as the most comprehensive and progressive protection for the oceans of any modern international accord. It essentially protects the economic, environmental, and national security concerns of coastal nations, as well as establishes international cooperative mechanisms for resolving disputes on these issues. The convention also safeguards imperiled marine habitats by strengthening state sovereignty over the enforcement of resource management and environmental regulations in each state's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) up to 200 miles offshore. The 1994 Agreement was transmitted to the Senate for its advice and consent, but never approved by the Senate Subsequent Administrations have supported the Convention → all administrations supported it but senate never signed it 2007: Deputy Secretary of State, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the Vice Chief of Naval Operations all testified in strong support of the Convention. • Representatives of the oil and gas, shipping, and telecommunications industries also voiced support for the Convention. 2.The Committee forwarded the Convention to the full Senate in late 2007 by a vote of 17-4, but the Senate did not consider it in the 110th Congress. 3.On March 21st, 2011 the State Department published a Fact Sheet identifying a number of compelling reasons why the United States should join the Law of the Sea Convention now.

Marine Stewardship Council (MSC): The group certifies that fish are sustainable caught and the fish are then given the MSC label that consumers can use to make environmentally sound choices.

The MSC tries to harness consumer purchasing power to generate change and promote environmentally responsible stewardship of the world's fisheries 3. Unilever agreed because it saw that preserving the fisheries was in its own self interest 4. By November 2006, 21 fisheries had received the MSC label of which eight were found in the UK, six in the US, two in Australia, and the others in New Zealand, South Africa, the Netherlands, Mexico and Sweden. Twenty others were undergoing an assessment process to deter- mine their eligibility for certification

Excerpt From The Pew Charitable Trusts' Statement ...

The National Ocean Policy implementation plan is a blueprint under which federal agencies will work closely together, and with the states and Native American tribes, to produce tangible improvements in marine environmental quality, marine resource productivity, and sustainable use of ocean resources. These are the pillars on which healthy oceans and vibrant coastal economies are built."

Agriculture

The Plan directs that agencies take actions to reduce nutrient and sediment loads, reduce pollutant runoff, protect watersheds, and conserve new lands. Implications:1. The plan increases federal agency involvement in the management of ocean and coastal activities and resource utilization. 2. The plan emphasizes ecosystem-based management to expand the the scope of a given conservation policy to addressing whole ecosystems and not just focus on a single species. 3. The plan will have active stakeholder engagement resulting in actions that meet the needs of all ocean users. HOW IT WAS BEFORE THIS PLAN: FISHERY MANAGEMENT GROUP MADE PLANS FOR THEIR FISHERYS WITHOUT THINKING ABOUT OTHER SPECIES AND PREDATORS/PREY

How Bad is the Current Rate of Loss?

The Report finds that nearly 1 million animal and plant species are threatened with extinction, many within decades. → Did not include the fact we only have 9 million species total of plant and animal species

How Much Longer Can We Keep Emitting CO2?

The Short Answer: Not Much Longer!!!

CLIMATE CHANGE

The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) synthesis report states that models predict a 7-12% decrease in maximum catch by 2050 for business as usual emissions.

Impacts are much greater at regional scale.

The biggest decreases are expected in the tropics. Catch potential at high latitudes are projected to increase, or show less of a decrease. → no where to go in tropics

The US National Ocean Policy: 2021-Present: BIDEN:

United States should take, working with State, local, Tribal, and territorial governments, agricultural and forest landowners, fishermen, and other key stakeholders, to achieve the goal of conserving at least 30 percent of our lands and waters by 2030.

Weather Attribution since AR6

The field of extreme weather attribution has made enormous strides since the last major IPCC assessment in 2013, and it's one of the most significant components of the AR6 report. Climate scientists can now contribute events to climate change For Example: After the historic heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and Canada in late June 2021, a group of scientists found human-caused climate change made it at least 150 times as likely.

fast grants

Up to 25,000 to support impact-oriented climate research, decision reached within 10 days Open to any Cornell-eligible PI Funded 11 teams since launching June 16th, including researchers working on: Materials for carbon capture EV labor transition Solar panels Upstate communities support Climate impact of lawn care New textiles for cooling and energy efficiency Emissions from dairy cattle

HABs in freshwater systems are mainly caused by certain species of

cyanobacteria (aka. blue-green algae)

Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act : (1979 --- with subsequent amendments)

The governing authority for all fishery management activities that occur in federal waters. [ALL TO KNOW FOR TEST] 1. Established the U.S. 200 nautical mile limit and by implication legitimized a 200 nautical mile EEZ for all other maritime nations. 2. Established National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) - a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce - as the lead agency for managing the new fisheries 3. Set up a system of regional fishery management councils (NW, SW, NE, SW, Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and Hawaii). Regional councils provide a forum for state, industry and public participation

The Clean Water Act

The keyword Navigable Waters has been expanded and shrunk from administration to administration; can be expanded or shrunk based on what the EPA can regulate; obama expanded the definition so EPA can regulate it; TRUMP shrunk it down to limit scope of what EPA can manage

Overfishing:

The overfishing problem we see today is primarily the result of a dramatic shift to industrialized fishing operations that are run by large corporate holding companies that have little concern for conservation...

Sustainable Shellfish Aquaculture

The oyster may be key to sustainable aquaculture and clean coastlines

Emission reductions needed to stay below 1.5C warming.

We are still a long ways away

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (2019)

The report states with high confidence that balanced diets featuring plant-based and sustainably produced animal-sourced food present major opportunities for adaptation and mitigation while generating significant co-benefits in terms of human health. By 2050, dietary changes could free up several million square kilometers of land, and reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by up to eight billion tons per year, relative to business as usual.

circumvent forage fish limits by mid-century.

The switch to alternative (possibly cheaper) feeds such as algae oil and insects

How can we transition to renewable energy so fast?

The transition from horses to automobiles was really fast

Lessons From the Past...

The world is full of the ruins of old civilizations. They died out because they sacrificed the value of sustainability to the pressures (and greed) of the present - they overgrazed, overfarmed and generally overexploited their surroundings. Past social/ecological collapses were always local and new wilderness was available elsewhere to restart the cycle over again. Humanity is now large enough and technologically advanced enough to impact the environment at planetary-scales with no opportunity to restart anything elsewhere! Human civilization developed during a period of remarkably stable climate that began 10,000 years ago. We now risk leaving that stability behind with human-caused climate change. We have nine planetary boundaries → life support system. Anything within a dashed line is we are within sustainable limit.

HOPEFUL SIGNS:

There are diverse examples where Common Pool Resources (CPR) have been maintained (see: Elaine Ostrom et al. 1999). Most Successes Require: 1. Member trust of others (Trust that someone else is not going to cheat) → one fishermen group trusts others to not cheat, trust scienrists \ 3. Trusted knowledge of resource limitation (Trust the Scientists!) Scaling up from small/local communities that share common norms to the global scale will require the following... 1. Global Communication 2. International Cooperation

Little debate/controversy over

energy efficiency and electrification

Modern Ocean supposed to look like:

There used to be lots of differences and more biodiversity

Concern of microplastic:

They can adsorb organics onto their surface and these potentially toxic organics can then be moved up the marine food chain Organics like to add on to plastics and if they are harmful organics or pollutants then they can be consumed by the zooplankton that eat the micropastic and humans that eat the fish

Concluding Remarks

This Generation now faces a proverbial line in the sand to either cross or not cross these warming thresholds. This generation is now being called upon to rise to an even greater challenge — to decarbonize the entire energy system of the planet in two decades to save all of humanity!

We/You Have a Choice to Make

This generation now faces a choice Either way, this generation's choice will be judged by future generations for the next 10,000 years!!

IPCC

UNITED NATIONS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

A Good Example of Too Many Cooks Working Against Each Other's Goals...

US Corn-Ethanol goal is predicted to increase nitrogen inputs to Mississippi River by 37%. This conflicts with the US National goal is to reduce nitrogen inputs by at least 40% to mitigate the "dead zone" in Gulf of Mexico.

WHAT SHOULD OUR ENERGY FUTURE BE?

Use existing technologies, moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy (hydro, solar, and wind) and converting heating and transportation to electricity Phase out fossil fuels 100% renewable electricity (solar, wind, hydro) NO NEED FOR NUCLEAR POWER, EVERYTHING ELSE CHEAPER AND FASTER TO DEPLOY Some storage of electricity (batteries, but also hydrogen, flywheels, compressed air, liquefied air, pumped hydro, etc) Beneficial electrification of transportation (electric vehicles) Beneficial electrification of heating (high-efficiency heat pumps). Ground source heat

Purse Seine Net:

Used in conjunction with FADS or with Dolphin- associated Tuna schools

What can you do to help??

VOTE FOR CORAGEOUS LEADERS THAT WILL ACT FOR THE BENEFIT OF FUTURE GENERATIONS

Global Average Sea Level

Varied by about 100 meters

Global Average Temperature

Varied by about 4C With some peaks to troughs extremes that are close to 6C

Two obvious examples of past bottom-up change:

Voting rights for woman in US Equal civil rights for african americans in the US

Humans are so powerful...

WE CAN STOP AN ICE AGE -More powerful than Milankovitch cycles

Primary Treatment

WORST TREATMENT, removes solids The simplest, and least effective, method of treatment. Solids in the raw sewage are settled out of suspension to form a sewage sludge. The overlying fluid fraction is then discharged into the environment. Such primary treatment removes only one-third of total organics and virtually none of the dissolved minerals.

How do we get the change we need?

WWII Mobilization

Percent of warming from methane

Warming from methane is 33% of total contribution from all greenhouse gasses; contributed about 0.5 degree to global warming

Glasgow COP 26:

Was intended to get nations to make new Indented National Determined Commitments (INDC) to reduce emission that will prevent warming beyond 1.5C. We are still a long ways away from the emission reductions needed to stay below 1.5C warming.

Glasgow COP 26 (2021)

Was suppose to get nations to make new Intended National Determined Commitments (INDC) to reduce emission to prevent warming beyond 1.5C

How we attribute weather events top the climate?

We can run a model with co2 and without co2 added and find the probability of a storm in each model, the difference between these two probabilities is the probability of a storm happening based on climate chance

"Fishing Down the Food Web":1

We exploit the predators, when we run out, we fish for their prey We are changing the ecosystems of the ocean

Aquaculture

We maxed the ocean out Almost half the seafood we eat is aquaculture

ROCK DUST →

When we build anything, we have to mine precious minerals from the Earth 30-50 billion tons of rock dust with calcium silicate (with volcanic dust) It can improve soil and crop yield The rock dust has magnesium and calcium silicate minerals. When rocks whether with this chemistry, it will absorb CO2 in the air Can help reduce CO2 and farmers have better crop yields This weathering process removed co2 by double the pace Rock dust with industrial hemp can be made into building materials, like mercedez benz dashboard

A sad example of how to manage a fishery...

Whenever ICCAT meets to set fishing quotas, the interests of commercial fishing and politics have trumped good science Atlantic Bluefin Tuna are now near collapse and extinction. Conservation groups are now seeking to use the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to try to stop the over-exploitation of the Bluefin Tuna because ICCAT is corrupt

West Falmouth (Cape Cod), MA September 1969

Wild Harbor Marsh- Oil is still present at toxic levels 40 years later!

The Loss of Biodiversity is a Silent Killer

With biodiversity, the change is not felt so obviously and by the time you feel what is happening, it may be too late.

The driver of human consumption of natural resources can be divided into three key components:

a) human population, b) levels of consumption (affluence) c) impact per unit of resource used (depends on the technology used)

Climate change impacts:-

alaska snow crab fishery closed; climate change, the crabs like cold water and temperatures were too warm

Why Corn ethanol is bad?

an important driver of fertilizer use Corn is a particularly leaky crop for nitrogen.... Tile drains and bare fields in winter aggravate this!

Fisheries

assemblage of boats going for different types of fishes

The Navy in particular is taking a new look at the chances for treaty ratification

because of its guarantee of navigational freedom → LOTS OF CONSEQUENCES BECAUSE OF MELTING ICE AND CHINA'S RISE AS A NAVAL POWER Navy taking a look at chances for treaty ratification because of its guarantee of navigational freedom The Arctic Ocean region contains an estimated one-third of all natural gas reserves, 13 percent of the oil reserves and a treasure chest of a plethora of critical minerals. U.S. claims for resources on the extended continental shelf from Alaska, is said to be a hollow claim since Congress failed to ratify the Law of the Sea protocol.

The interaction of biotic and abiotic factors within the biosphere provide

breathable air (i.e., every other breath), clean water (e.g., mangroves), fertile soils, bountiful seas and an equitable climate (e.g., biological carbon pump)

Natural gas in 2005 was used as a

bridge fuel, replacing coal for a few decades to reduce co2 emissions. Obama championed this Coal went down and natural gas went up

1. Relatively few self-interested individuals (or more broadly a single generation) a

common resources (for example, ocean and atmosphere) and benefiting greatly at the expense of a healthy and sustainable ocean/atmosphere - and a healthy-sustainable earth in general → overcomptetiton of grabbing stuff before others do

AR5

concluded that it is "very likely" that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the observed changes in the frequency and intensity of daily

AR6

concludes that it is an "established fact" that human- caused emissions of greenhouse gases "have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes".

Loss of biodiversity is, therefore, not only an environmental issue, but it is also a

developmental, economic, security, and social justice issue.

HABs in marine systems are mainly caused by certain species of

dinoflagellates and diatoms.

Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

floating objects designed and strategically placed to attract pelagic fish 1. 50% of the world's Tuna is caught using FADs 2. 100,000 FADS are deployed each year

IPCC report Predicts Bleak Outlook

for Food Security in the Face of Climate Change

Arctic Ocean

is expected to be largely ice-free in summer months by 2035

There are many more species on

land than in the oceans

Paris Climate Agreement →

leading governments together to commit to fossil free future To try and avoid droughts and such, countries commit to emissions reductions We need to cut emissions in half each decade until 2050 in order to be carbon neutral Pace of emissions will get us by the 2C threshold We moved past the point where we can cut emissions, we are at the point of AND. Need to cut emissions and also remove CO2 from the atmosphere CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100 years, 1000 in ocean Classic bathtub water ⇒ can't just turn off faucet, need to increase size of drain to get CO2 out of drain as soon as possible.

Overall wild-captured biomass since the 1990s

leveled off at about 80 million tons → we fished out the ocean

harmful subsidies remain — partly due to

lobbying by vested interest groups. → subsidies to get the fish before other countries do (tragedy of commons)

US rivers that are unsuitable for aquatic life due to nutrient pollution from industrial agricultural process

more than half of all according to the EPA

How Do We Get Coordinated Government Action?

nothing is going to change for the better from any top-down actions but rather from bottom-up actions by all of YOU!

Decline in Total Number

of the world's most common species can also give insight into biodiversity decline.

New York's Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act of 2019

pioneers a new approach for including methane in greenhouse gas inventory for the State: 1) We take responsibility for all methane emissions associated with use of natural gas, no matter where the emissions occur; 2) We compare methane to carbon dioxide over a 20 yr time period following a pulse emission (before, a 100-yr time period was used, and is still used by all other states, the US government, and virtually all other nations..... Which severely understates the warming and climate disruption caused by methane).

Species Extinction

provides a clear, but narrow, window on the destruction of biodiversity — it is the disappearance of the last member of a group that is by definition rare.

The biosphere

remarkably thin layer of all living organisms on earth — their combined metabolic activities influence the atmosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere, both physically and chemically, to form one environmental system. → creates earth's life system

A Tertiary Treatment Facility

requires that Primary and Secondary treatments are done first, so a Tertiary Treatment Facility implies that solid, dissolved organics and plant nutrients have all been removed

Aquaculture is now the primary user of forage fish

roughly 75% → problem with aquaculture is fed aquaculture

Sea Level Rise with Business as Usual emissions

sea level is expected to reach 1-Meter on a global average by the end of the century, but some models predict this rise could be reached much sooner. --> not evenly distributed

Protecting nature and saving species is all about...

securing the land and water that plants and animals need to survive. Protecting half of the planet (both land and ocean) by 2050, with an interim target of 30% by 2030, is the only way to meet the Paris climate targets or achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals for the world.

Without significant changes, more than half of the world's marine species may

stand on the brink of extinction by 2100.

Jurisditional Regions

state, federal, and international waters

Arctic Amplification

the arctic has warmed twice as much as the rest of the planet Under normal conditions, the polar jet stream is held at high latitudes by a strong atmospheric pressure gradient. With climate change, A reduced temperature gradient leads to a reduced pressure gradient that would otherwise hold the polar jet stream at high latitudes (water is warmer and melting ice and below the ice is dark water that absorbs the heat further) weaker pressure gradient, The wave-like meanders of the polar jet stream also propagate more slowly So, polar air outbreaks at low latitudes can last for a longer period of time.

Since you get to decide the leaders

the future is up to YOU! The Coming Years Will Test Us All Both Collectively and Individually

By fighting for stricter conservation laws

the hope is that industrial fishing will be diminished and that families and communities that have grown up with fishing on a human scale can continue to fish sustainably long into the future.

• if more of nature's bioproductive capacity is consumed than is available,

then the rate of consumption is not sustainable

Every So Often a Generation is Called Upon to do Something Extraordinary

to decarbonize the energy system of the planet in two decades to save all of humanity. Change can be a good thing!

Without the fuel subsidy,

trawling the bottom of the ocean, which is extremely damaging, would almost certainly stop.

A future (within 30 years) with plentiful clean energy will make looking back to

what we have today seem positively primitive!

Major debate/controversy over

whether we should go 100% renewable or 80-90% , should we use nuclear and Carbon capture storage???

Wild caught forage fish limit

will be reached by 2037.

Mangrove Forests

— In many tropical nations, coastal mangrove forests provide habitat for a diverse array of marine organisms, protect the coast against storms and improve water quality by acting as a filter. → HIGH BIODIVERSITY, NATURAL BLOCKING FROM LARGE WAVES, REALLY IMPORTANT However, many mangrove forests have been cut down and replaced with ponds for shrimp farming.

IPBES

— Similar to Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), but for biodiversity. • Charged with assessing biodiversity changes over the past five decades No new science, synthesize reports from other scitensits

Growing conflicts with a range of stakeholders that use the coastal environment

• Agriculture • Commercial and Sport Fishing • Recreation • Wind Energy • Oil Exploration

Increased fertilizer demand is largely driven by

• Human population increases • Increases in per capita meat consumption • Increases in corn ethanol production • A transition to Industrial Farming Practices

2035 Heating

• Earth-Source Heat (ESH): uses deep earth source (4-6 km) • Ground-Source Heat Pump (GSHP): uses shallow ground source (400-500 feet) • Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) • Biomass Combustion: to generate heat during peak loads • Biomass Gasification: to generate heat and electricity

More than half of all coastal rivers and bays are moderately to severely degraded due to nutrient inputs.

• Fertilizer use continues to grow • Feedlot (CAFO) wastes growing exponentially; • Coastal development continues, with inadequate sewage treatment

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

• IPCC AR6 notes that to keep the planet's average temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above its pre-industrial level a billion tons (or more) of carbon dioxide will need to be removed each year • An alliance of prominent Silicon Valley companies— including Google—has committed to purchase nearly a billion dollars in carbon removal over the next eight years. • This idea is that by committing upfront to buying a product early, they can help bring it to market faster.

Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (CLCPA) of 2019 mandates:

• New greenhouse gas accounting for methane • 40% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 • 85% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050 • 70% renewable electricity by 2030 • 100% C-free electricity by 2040 • At least 40% benefits to go to historically disadvantaged Establishes the Climate Action Council to develop policies for implementing.

Other approaches that are sometimes suggested:(some propoganda from oil/gas industry)

• Renewable natural gas (RNG) → METHANE FRM NON-FOSSIL SOURCES • Biofuels → energy inefficiency • Carbon capture & storage (for burning coal or natural gas) → not yet been tried; takes a lot of energy; very expensive; increases energy consumption • Hydrogen (including "blue" hydrogen) → expensive, can be bad energy use

Some take-home messages

• The "6th mass extinction" is very likely now underway • It will remove a large % of species from the world's oceans, especially large vertebrates and reef species • This will happen geologically very quickly (100s to 1000s of years) • It will have unpredictable ecological, environmental, and evolutionary consequences We have choices: vote

The "6th mass extinction"

• The hypothesis that the Earth is now in the early stages of an extinction episode similar in magnitude to that which included the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs 66 million years ago, due mostly to human activity. may have begun thousands of years ago... Everybody agrees that we are in the 6th mass extinction, early stages that will be equal to the one that killed the dinosaurs 66 myaWhy the oceans may be susceptible to the 6th mass extinction:

Electric

• Wind, Water, and Solar NOTE: Cornell has an annual equivalent cost of heating and powering the campus of $42 MM Campus energy needs account for nearly 2/3 of carbon footprint

IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6)

• Working Group I (the physical science basis) — August 2021 • Working Group II (impacts, adaptation and vulnerability) — February 2022 • Working Group III (mitigation) — April 2022 And Synthesis Reports • Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C (October 2018) • Special Report on Climate Change and Land (August 2019) • Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (September 2019)

Harmful fishery subsidies

• the most important ones in the 'harmful' category include: cheap fuel, funds for vessel construction, and support for the price of fish at market.

amount of animal production derived using industrial factory methods:

• three-quarters of the world's poultry supply, • half of the pork, • two-thirds of the eggs

Populations and Assets at risk to a 1-meter sea level rise at the end of this century...

•Tens of millions of people •Ten of trillions of dollars in assets

MORE DEAD PHYTOPLANKTON IN DEEP OCEAN

→ LOWER OXYGEN LEVELS AT BOTTOM OF OCEAN

Coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms

→ add excess nutrient to streams, overstimualte algae, microbes consume dead algae, and then consume oxygen and bring it down → lots of this occurs in aquaculture system; these fish defecate; fish meal dumped in there and organic material settled into the bottom waters that create these eutrophic, low oxygen conditions The FAIRR report supports greater cultivation of species that remove marine pollution rather than contribute to it - such as mussels and oysters.

Natural gas in NYS

→ new york state banned fracking by shale gas in 2014 → natural gas use in new york has increased faster than any other state because it is all imported

Obama

→ pew comisison and ocean commission came and said they needed to bring cohesiveness to individual groups managing resources Under the National Policy, coastal and marine spatial planning would be regional in scope, and developed cooperatively among Federal, state, tribal, and local authorities, and include substantial stakeholder, scientific, and public input. The coastal and marine spatial planning framework would do the following: 1. Establish a regional approach to decrease user conflicts, improve planning and regulatory efficiencies and decrease costs and delays, and preserve critical ecosystem services. • This would serve as an alternative to sector-by-sector and statute-by-statute decision-making. 2. Ensure science-based information is at the heart of decision-making 3. Emphasize stakeholder and public participation. Edward Markey- "Opposing ocean spatial planning is like opposing air traffic control: You can do it, but it will cause a mess or lead to dire consequences." Disagreements.. Some conservative Representatives feared that it would make an end run around congressional authority — and lead to imposition of new regulations and added cost to tax payers. In reality, the policy did not require new funding and it permitted government agencies to operate more efficiently by reducing duplication of effort. It also allowed different regions of the country to prioritize ocean issues and concerns that matter most to them.

How are oxygen levels affected when you add more nutrients?

→ the lower the oxygen levels at the bottom of the ocean