Operation chap 3 questions

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of: A. an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor B. an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value C. the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor D. the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor E. a moving average and a trend factor

A. an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to: A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect) B. achieve a high degree of accuracy C. maintain accountability and responsibility D. be able to replicate results E. prevent hurt feelings

A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect)

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called: A. bias B. tracking C. control charting D. positive correlation E. linear regression

A. bias

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

A. decreased

Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast? A. leading variable B. Mean Squared Error (MSE) C. Delphi technique D. exponential smoothing E. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

A. leading variable

In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average. A. quantity, percentage B. percentage, quantity C. quantity, quantity D. percentage, percentage E. qualitative, quantitative

A. quantity, percentage

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is: A. the duration of the repeating patterns B. the magnitude of the variation C. the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause D. the direction of the movement E. there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles

A. the duration of the repeating patterns

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using A. Exponential smoothing B. MAPE C. Linear decision rules D. MAD E. Hindsight

B. MAPE

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is: A. a moving average forecast B. a naive forecast C. an exponentially smoothed forecast D. an associative forecast E. regression analysis

B. a naive forecast

55. Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process? A. determine the purpose and level of detail required B. eliminate all assumptions C. establish a time horizon D. select a forecasting model E. monitor the forecast

B. eliminate all assumptions

The degree of management involvement in short range forecasts is: A. none B. low C. moderate D. high E. total

B. low

A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is: A. reactive B. proactive C. influential D. protracted E. retroactive

B. proactive

The two general approaches to forecasting are: A. mathematical and statistical B. qualitative and quantitative C. judgmental and qualitative D. historical and associative E. precise and approximation

B. qualitative and quantitative

The primary method for associative forecasting is: A. sensitivity analysis B. regression analysis C. simple moving averages D. centered moving averages E. exponential smoothing

B. regression analysis

Averaging techniques are useful for: A. distinguishing between random and non-random variations B. smoothing out fluctuations in time series C. eliminating historical data D. providing accuracy in forecasts E. average people

B. smoothing out fluctuations in time series

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing? A. smoothes random variations in the data B. weights each historical value equally C. has an easily altered weighting scheme D. has minimal data storage requirements E. smoothes real variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

Detecting non-randomness in errors can be done using: A. MSEs B. MAPs C. Control Charts D. Correlation Coefficients E. Strategies

C. Control Charts

54. Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts? A. Assumption of a stable underlying causal system B. Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values. C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast. D. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. E. Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast? A. The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs. B. The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions. C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans. D. Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events. E. Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are: A. cost and time horizon B. accuracy and time horizon C. cost and accuracy D. quantity and quality E. objective and subjective components

C. cost and accuracy

Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression? A. regression coefficient B. dependent variable C. independent variable D. predicted variable E. demand coefficient

C. independent variable

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used to: A. estimate the trend line B. eliminate forecast errors C. measure forecast accuracy D. seasonally adjust the forecast E. all of the above

C. measure forecast accuracy

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion don't include A. executive opinion B. salesperson opinion C. second opinions D. customer surveys E. Delphi methods

C. second opinions

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique? A. associative forecast B. consumer survey C. series of questionnaires D. developed in India E. historical data

C. series of questionnaires

Customer service levels can be improved by better: A. mission statements B. control charting C. short term forecast accuracy D. exponential smoothing E. customer selection

C. short term forecast accuracy

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following: A. immediately reflect changing patterns in the data B. lead changes in the data C. smooth variations in the data D. operate independently of recent data E. assist when organizations are relocating

C. smooth variations in the data

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is: A. sales force opinions B. consumer surveys C. the Delphi method D. time series analysis E. executive opinions

C. the Delphi method

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called: A. seasonal variation B. cycles C. irregular variation D. trend E. random variation

D. Trend

Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that: A. Variations around the line are random. B. Deviations around the line are normally distributed. C. Predictions are to be made only within the range of observed values of the predictor variable. D. all of the above E. none of the above

D. all of the above

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is: A. a naive forecast B. a simple moving average forecast C. a centered moving average forecast D. an exponentially smoothed forecast E. an associative forecast

D. an exponentially smoothed forecast

Which technique is useful in computing seasonal relatives? A. double smoothing B. Delphi C. Mean Squared Error (MSE) D. centered moving average E. exponential smoothing

D. centered moving average

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called: A. mean squared error technique B. mean absolute deviation C. double smoothing D. least squares line E. predictor regression

D. least squares line

Which of the following is not necessarily an element of a good forecast? A. estimate of accuracy B. timeliness C. meaningful units D. low cost E. written

D. low cost

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data? A. smoothes random variations in the data B. weights each historical value equally C. lags changes in the data D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data E. smoothes real variations in the data

D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by: A. MSE B. MRP C. MAPE D. MTM E. A & C

E. A & C

Current information on _________ can have a significant impact on forecast accuracy: A. prices B. promotion C. inventory D. competition E. all of the above

E. all of the above

In business, forecasts are the basis for: A. capacity planning B. budgeting C. sales planning D. production planning E. all of the above

E. all of the above

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques? A. time series data B. expert opinions C. Delphi technique D. consumer survey E. predictor variables

E. predictor variables

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

E. time series analysis

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

True

. Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

false

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

false

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

false

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

false

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

false

A proactive approach to forecasting views forecasts as probable descriptions of future demand, and requires action to be taken to meet that demand.

false

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

false

An important goal of forecasting is to minimize the average forecast error.

false

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to estimate next period's demand.

false

For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

false

Forecasting techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and the naive approach all represent smoothed (averaged) values of time series data.

false

Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

false

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

false

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

false

Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.

false

Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three independent variables.

false

The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

false

The naive approach to forecasting requires a linear trend line.

false

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

false

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last periods actual.

false

When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.

false

. Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

true

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

true

A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding value of MAD.

true

An advantage of "trend adjusted exponential smoothing" over the "linear trend equation" is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

true

An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given more importance than what occurred a while ago.

true

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

true

Bias is measured by the cumulative sum of forecast errors.

true

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

true

Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

true

Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging.

true

Forecasts based on time series (historical) data are referred to as associative forecasts.

true

Forecasts help managers plan both the system itself and provide valuable information for using the system.

true

Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

true

If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of regression analysis.

true

In exponential smoothing, an alpha of .30 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will an alpha of .20.

true

In exponential smoothing, an alpha of 1.0 will generate the same forecast that a naïve forecast would yield.

true

In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

true

In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.

true

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

true

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

true

Seasonal relatives can be used to de-seasonalize data or incorporate seasonality in a forecast.

true

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

true

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

true

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

true

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

true

The sample standard deviation of forecast error, is equal to the square root of MSE.

true

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

true

The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

true

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

true