OPSM 330 Exam 2

Lost production time, scrap, and rework are examples of ________. A. internal failure costs B. external failure costs C. appraisal costs D. prevention costs E. replacement costs

A

In an assignment model where there are fewer jobs than resources: A. Dummy jobs are needed to solve the problem B. Dummy resources are needed to solve the problem C. The problem can't be solved using an assignment model D. The problem will have multiple optimum solutions E. The simplex method must be used to solve the problem

A. Dummy jobs are needed to solve the problem

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by: A. MSE. B. MRP. C. MPS. D. MTM. E. MTE.

A. MSE MSE is mean squared error

Which of the following is not an example of a high-volume system? A. aircraft manufacturing B. magazine printing C. petroleum refining D. waste treatment E. commercial donut baking

A. aircraft manufacturing

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to: A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect). B. achieve a high degree of accuracy. C. maintain accountability and responsibility. D. be able to replicate results. E. prevent hurt feelings.

A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect). A bandwagon can lead to popular but potentially inaccurate viewpoints to drown out other important considerations.

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be: A. decreased. B. increased. C. multiplied by a larger alpha. D. multiplied by a smaller alpha. E. eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE.

A. decreased Fewer data points result in more responsive moving averages.

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average. A. quantity; percentage B. percentage; quantity C. quantity; quantity D. percentage; percentage E. qualitative; quantitative

A. quantity; percentage The additive model simply adds a seasonal adjustment to the deseasonalized forecast. The multiplicative model adjusts the deseasonalized forecast by multiplying it by a season relative or index.

The more novel a new product or service design is, the more forecasters have to rely on: A. subjective estimates. B. seasonality. C. cyclicality. D. historical data. E. smoothed variation

A. subjective estimates. New products and services lack historical data, so forecasts for them must be based on subjective estimates.

A scheduling technique used to achieve an optimum, one-to-one matching of tasks and resources is: A. the assignment method B. Johnson's rule C. the optimum production technology method] D. the appointment method E. the reservation metod

A. the assignment method

Prevention Costs

All TQ training, TQ planning, customer assessment, process control, and quality improvement costs to prevent defects from occurring

Scheduling

Assignment of start and completion times to particular jobs, people, or equipment

Cause-and-effect diagrams are sometimes called: A. Pareto diagrams B. fishbone (Ishikawa) diagrams C. run charts D. control charts E. none of the above

B

Forecasting techniques generally assume: A. the absence of randomness. B. continuity of some underlying causal system. C. a linear relationship between time and demand. D. accuracy that increases the farther out in time the forecast projects. E. accuracy that is better when individual items, rather than groups of items, are being considered.

B

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using A. exponential smoothing. B. MAPE. C. linear decision rules. D. MAD. E. hindsight. B. MAPE.

B

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is: A. none. B. low. C. moderate. D. high. E. total.

B

The four dimensions of quality that are sometimes used to determine fitness for use of a product are ______. A. performance, special features, durability, and service after sale B. performance, special features, conformance, and reliability C. special features, conformance, reliability, and durability D. performance, conformance, reliability, and durability E. special features, conformance, durability, and service after sale

B

Warranty service, processing of complaints, and costs of litigation are examples of ________. A. internal failure costs B. external failure costs C. appraisal costs D. prevention costs E. replacement costs

B

Which of the following raises quality risks? A. currency fluctuations B. outsourcing to less-developed countries C. empowering employees D. benchmarking E. streamlining the supplier base

B

Suppose a four-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: wt-4 = 0.1, wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.4. Demand observed in the previous four periods was as follows: At-4 = 380, At-3 = 410, At-2 = 390, At-1 = 400. What will be the demand forecast for period t? A. 402 B. 397 C. 399 D. 393 E. 403

B. 397 The forecast will be (.1 380) + (.2 410) + (.3 390) + (.4 400) = 397.

Which sequencing rule is designed specifically to minimize job tardiness? A. S/O B. EDD C. FCFS D. SPT E. LPT

B. EDD

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process? A. Determine the purpose and level of detail required. B. Eliminate all assumptions. C. Establish a time horizon. D. Select a forecasting model. E. Monitor the forecast.

B. Eliminate all assumptions. We cannot eliminate all assumptions.

The scheduling sequencing rule which always results in the lowest average completion time is the: A. FCFS rule B. SPT rule C. EDD rule D. S/O rule E. RUSH rule

B. SPT rule

One disadvantage of appointment systems is: A. Capacity can be adjusted by varying hours B. The customer's desired time may be already taken C. People generally accept it as fair D. It can reduce customer waiting time E. Appointments do not have to be all the same length

B. The customer's desired time may be already taken

The two general approaches to forecasting are: A. mathematical and statistical. B. qualitative and quantitative. C. judgmental and qualitative. D. historical and associative. E. precise and approximation.

B. qualitative and quantitative. Forecast approaches are either quantitative or qualitative.

The primary method for associative forecasting is: A. sensitivity analysis. B. regression analysis. C. simple moving averages. D. centered moving averages. E. exponential smoothing.

B. regression analysis. Regression analysis is an associative forecasting technique.

The purpose of cyclical scheduling is to: A. eliminate weekends and holidays B. rotate schedules C. add flexible hours D. incorporate overtime E. observe work patterns

B. rotate schedules

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing? A. smoothes random variations in the data B. weights each historical value equally C. has an easily altered weighting scheme D. has minimal data storage requirements E. smoothes real variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally The most recent period of demand is given the most weight in exponential smoothing.

A tool that depicts process variation graphically is a(n) _________. A. Affinity diagram B. Check list C. Control Chart D. Flow Chart E. Relationship diagram

C

Costs of inspectors, testing, test equipment, and labs are examples of ________. A. internal failure costs B. external failure costs C. appraisal costs D. prevention costs E. replacement costs

C

Customer service levels can be improved by better: A. mission statements. B. control charting. C. short-term forecast accuracy. D. exponential smoothing. E. customer selection.

C

Fixing a problem will often cost money; to minimize these costs it is best to find and fix the problem _______. A. just before shipping our product to the customer B. immediately after we complete the last operation C. during the design phase D. just before we begin the first production operation E. regardless of when you fix the problem, costs are about the same

C

Which isn't a cost of quality? A. Prevention cost B. External failure C. Extended Service Contracts D. Internal failure E. Appraisal costs

C

Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts? A. Assumption of a stable underlying causal system. B. Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values. C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast. D. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. E. Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast. In some forecasting situations historical data are not available.

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following: A. Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. B. Lead changes in the data. C. Smooth variations in the data. D. Operate independently of recent data. E. Assist when organizations are relocating. Variation is smoothed out in moving average forecasts.

C. Smooth variations in the data. Variation is smooth out in moving average forecasts.

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast? A. The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs. B. The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions. C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans. D. Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events. E. Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans. Members of the sales force should be the organization's tightest link with its customers.

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using: A. MSEs. B. MAPs. C. control charts. D. correlation coefficients. E. strategies.

C. control charts. Control charts graphically depict the statistical behavior of forecast errors.

Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression? A. regression coefficient B. dependent variable C. independent variable D. predicted variable E. demand coefficient

C. independent variable Demand is the typical dependent variable when forecasting with simple linear regression.

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include: A. executive opinion. B. salesperson opinion. C. second opinions. D. customer surveys. E. Delphi methods.

C. second opinions. Second opinions generally refer to medical diagnoses, not demand forecasting.

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique? A. associative forecast B. consumer survey C. series of questionnaires D. developed in India E. historical data

C. series of questionnaires The questionnaires are a way of fostering a consensus among divergent perspectives.

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is: A. sales force opinions. B. consumer surveys. C. the Delphi method. D. time series analysis. E. executive opinions.

C. the Delphi method. Anonymity is important in Delphi efforts.

Appraisal Costs

Costs of activities designed to ensure quality or uncover defects

A tool that is not used for quality management is ________. A. Flowchart B. Histogram C. Perato Analysis D. Redesign E. Check sheets

D

Focusing attention on the most important problem areas is referred to as: A. quality circles B. quality assurance C. brainstorming D. Pareto analysis E. cause-and-effect analysis

D

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called: A. seasonal variation. B. cycles. C. irregular variation. D. trend. E. random variation.

D

ISO 9000 standards do not have a requirement for ________. A. resource B. remedial C. systems D. training E. management

D

Quality planning and administration, quality training, and quality control procedures are examples of _______. A. internal failure costs B. external failure costs C. appraisal costs D. prevention costs E. replacement costs

D

The tool that is useful in documenting the current process is: A. a control chart B. a Pareto chart C. a check sheet D. a flow chart E. a simo chart

D

The typical difference between "quality circles" and "continuous improvement teams" is ________. A. Quality circles work on product design only B. Continuous improvement teams work on product and process design C. Continuous improvement teams use only engineers while quality circles use just the workers doing the work D. the amount of employee empowerment E. There is no difference-they are just the same

D

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives? A. double smoothing B. Delphi C. mean squared error D. centered moving average E. exponential smoothing

D

Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as follows: At-3 = 2,200, At-2 = 1,950, At-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t? A. 2,000 B. 2,095 C. 1,980 D. 2,050 E. 1,875

D. 2050 The forecast for will be (.2 2,200) + (.3 1,950) + (.5 * 2,050) = 2,050.

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5? 1 - 58 2- 59 3 - 60 4 - 61

D. 61 Period 5's forecast would be period 4's demand.

Which of the following is a potential shortcoming of using sales force opinions in demand forecasting? A. Members of the sales force often have substantial histories of working with and understanding their customers. B. Members of the sales force often are well aware of customers' future plans. C. Members of the sales force have direct contact with consumers. D. Members of the sales force can have difficulty distinguishing between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do. E. Customers often are quite open with members of the sales force with regard to future plans.

D. Members of the sales force can have difficulty distinguishing between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do. Customers themselves may be unclear regarding what they'd like to do versus what they'll actually do.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is: A. a naive forecast. B. a simple moving average forecast. C. a centered moving average forecast. D. an exponentially smoothed forecast. E. an associative forecast.

D. an exponentially smoothed forecast. Exponential smoothing uses the previous forecast error to shape the next forecast.

Effective scheduling cannot: A. yield cost savings and improved productivity B. reduce the need for expansion of facilities C. improve customer service D. eliminate the need to train employees E. improve patient care in medical settings

D. eliminate the need to train employees

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called: A. mean squared error technique. B. mean absolute deviation. C. double smoothing. D. least squares estimation. E. predictor regression.

D. least squares estimation. Least squares estimations minimize the sum of squared deviations around the estimated regression function.

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data? A. smoothes random variations in the data B. weights each historical value equally C. lags changes in the data D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data E. smoothes real variations in the data

D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data Simple moving averages can require several periods of data.

Scheduling pertains to: A. hiring workers B. process selection C. buying machinery D. timing the use of specific resources E. determining the lower cost

D. timing the use of specific resources

DMAIC Process

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Sequencing

Determining the order in which jobs or tasks are processed

ISO 9000 currently requires _____ of a certified organization. A. Quarterly reporting B. Product diversity C. Annual audits D. A minimum of four supervisory levels E. Continuous improvement

E

Managers have obligations to a wide variety of stakeholders such as shareholders, employees and customers. When considering outsourcing production to offshore suppliers, managers have to weigh __. I) Cost benefits that might make shareholders wealthier II) Quality issues that might make firms less productive and/or products riskier III) The investments already tied up in relationships with existing suppliers A. I B. II C. III D. I and II only E. I, II and III

E

Which of the following is an element of TQM? A. continuous improvement B. competitive benchmarking C. employee empowerment D. team approach E. all of the above

E

A work center can be a: A. machine B. group of machines C. departments D. facility E. all of the above

E. all the above

When choosing a forecasting technique, a critical trade-off that must be considered is that between: A. time series and associative. B. seasonality and cyclicality. C. length and duration. D. simplicity and complexity. E. cost and accuracy.

E. cost and accuracy. The trade-off between cost and accuracy is the critical consideration when choosing a forecasting technique.

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning? A. product design B. market share C. ethics D. globalization E. demand forecasts

E. demand forecasts Demand forecasts are direct inputs into capacity, sales, and production plans.

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting? A. executive opinion. B. sales force opinions C. consumer surveys D. the Delphi method E. time series analysis

E. time series analysis Time series analysis is a quantitative approach.

Flow System

High-volume system in which all jobs follow the same sequence Workstation 1 ->Workstation 2 ->Output

PDSA Cycle

Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) Cycle

Total Quality Management

Simultaneous and continuous pursuit of improvement in both the quality of design and conformance through the involvement of the entire organization.

Bias is measured by the cumulative sum of forecast errors.

TRUE Bias would result in the cumulative sum of forecast errors being large in absolute value.

Loading

assigning work to resources

Six Sigma

business improvement approach that seeks to find and eliminate causes of defects and errors in manufacturing and service processes

Job Shop

process layout—managing the ever-changing traffic patterns through facilities

International Organization for Standardization

promotes worldwide standards for improvement of quality, productivity, and operating efficiency through a series of standards and guidelines.

Quality of conformance—

the degree to which the output of an operation meets the producer's expectations

Quality of design—

the degree to which the output of an operation meets the customer's expectations