POLS 1500 EXAM 2

Michael McFaul, Moscow's Choice, (Foreign Affairs, 2014)

"...difficult for Mearsheimer to explain is the so-called reset of U.S.-Russian relations, an era of cooperation that lasted from the spring of 2009 to January 2012. Both U.S. President Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed to moves that they considered in the national interest of their respective countries. The two leaders signed and ratified the New START treaty, voted to support the UN Security Council's most comprehensive set of sanctions against Iran ever, and vastly expanded the supply route for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan that travels in part through Russia. They worked together to obtain Russian membership in the World Trade Organization, created a bilateral presidential commission to promote cooperation on everything from nuclear energy to counterterrorism, and put in place a more liberal visa regime. In 2010, polls showed that over 60 percent of Russians held a positive view of the United States. Russia has pursued both cooperation and confrontation with the United States since this century began. Mearsheimer's single variable of NATO expansion can't explain both outcomes. "Mearsheimer presumably believes that the United States and the world would be better off if U.S. leaders fully embraced his brand of realpolitik, whereas I think both would be better off if Putin and future Russian leaders embraced liberalism. But we don't have to dream about what this counterfactual might look like; we witnessed it during the Medvedev era."

John Mearsheimer: "Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault", 2014

"As the Cold War came to a close, Soviet leaders preferred that U.S. forces remain in Europe and NATO stay intact, an arrangement they thought would keep a reunified Germany pacified. But they and their Russian successors did not want NATO to grow any larger and assumed that Western diplomats understood their concerns. The Clinton administration evidently thought otherwise, and in the mid-1990s, it began pushing for NATO to expand". "Putin's actions should be easy to comprehend. A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow's mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine".

2. Vladimir Putin [2000-08, 2012-present] & Medvedev [2008 - 2012]:

"Competitive Authoritarianism" - Political stability at the expense of Democracy: press censorship and intimidation, electoral fraud, strong executive decree powers - Russia's economic recovery followed by stagnation. - Putin and Russian Nationalism.

Branko Milanovic, "Capitalism, Alone",2019:12

"I define capitalism in the fashion of Karl Marx and Max Weber, as the system where most production is carried out with privately owned means of production, capital hires legally free labor, and coordination is decentralized. In addition, to add Joseph Schumpeter's requirement, most investment decisions are made by private companies or individual entrepreneurs."

Unintended Consequences: Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991)

1989: Solidarity movement in Poland wins congressional elections; next year, its leader, Lech Walesa, won the Presidency; 1989: (November) Berlin Wall falls, and in the next month, communist governments fall in Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Rumania (Velvet Revolution); 1990: (May) Boris Yeltsin elected as President of Russia. 1991: (April) Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania delcare independence from Soviet Union 1991: (August), A coup led by military hardliners attempts to seize power in Moscow to stop the decline of the USSR and Gorbachev's "giveaway" of control. Coup leaders, however, are arrested and Yeltsin replaces regional leaders who supported it. 1991- (December) Gorbachev resigns as Secretary General and the USSR dissolved the following day.

NATO Expansion Into former Iron Curtain

1999- Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland; 2004 - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia; 2008 - At a NATO Summit meeting held in Bucharest, Albania and Croatia invited to join NATO, Georgia and Ukraine considered upon US request, but postponed. Russia calls this "huge strategic mistake". 2009 - Albania, Croatia formally join NATO.

Mutually Assured Destruction

A doctrine of military strategy holding that neither side will attack the other if both sides are guaranteed to be totally destroyed in the conflict; It is based on the theory of deterrence where the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons; The doctrine assumes that neither side will develop the ability to prevent the other side from maintaining a second strike capability.

Democracy

Government by the people; a system of government in which all the people of a state or polity are involved in making decisions about its affairs, typically by voting to elect representatives to a parliament or similar assembly.

The Politics of China during the Deng era (1978-1997)

Unapologetic one party authoritarianism of "Market-Leninism" I. Political Stability after the Cultural Revolution and the Continuation of One Party Rule: - Factional split between Hardliners (Li Peng) and Reformers (Hu Yaobang, Zhang Ziyang); - Tiananmen Square Incident (1989). II. Key Dilemma: How to secure legitimacy and stability with the end of Marxist-Leninism? Gorbachev and Yeltsin model? South Korea and Taiwan?

quote:

"Putin most likely wanted to discredit Secretary Clinton because he has publicly blamed her since 2011 for inciting mass protests against his regime in late 2011 and early 2012, and because he holds a grudge for comments he almost certainly saw as disparaging him."

John Mearsheimer: "Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault", Foreign Affairs, 2014

"Putin's pushback should have come as no surprise. After all, the West had been moving into Russia's backyard and threatening its core strategic interests, a point Putin made emphatically and repeatedly. Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty-first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy". "Washington may not like Moscow's position, but it should understand the logic behind it. This is Geopolitics 101: great powers are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory. After all, the United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, much less on its borders. Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it. Logic aside, Russian leaders have told their Western counterparts on many occasions that they consider NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine unacceptable, along with any effort to turn those countries against Russia -- a message that the 2008 Russian-Georgian war also made crystal clear."

Lindblom - The market as prison; or why capitalism hurts democracy:

"What about government officials? It is critical to the efficacy of automatic punishment that it be visited on them. For it is they who immediately or proximately decide to persist in policy changes or to withdraw from such initiatives. The penalty visited on them by business disincentives caused by proposed policies is that declining business activity is a threat to the party and the officials in power." That result, then, is why the market might be characterized as a prison. For a broad category of political/economic affairs, it im- prisons policy making, and imprisons our attempts to improve our institutions. It greatly cripples our attempts to improve the social world because it afflicts us with sluggish economic performance and unemployment simply because we begin to debate or undertake reform.

quote

"we've made this clear to Russia from the very beginning, that we must address Ukraine... It stands as the single most difficult obstacle to us re-normalizing a relationship with Russia, which we badly would like to do". Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State, 12/7/2017

2nd Joint Communique (January, 1, 1979)

- The United States of America and the People's Republic of China have agreed to recognize each other and to establish diplomatic relations as of January 1, 1979. - The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. - The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.

Friedman: Capitalism as Basic Freedom

1. "A citizen of the United States who under the laws of various states is not free to follow the occupation of his own choosing unless he can get a license for it, is likewise being deprived of an essential part of his freedom". 2. "a major source of objection to a free economy is that it gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself".

Historical timing of development/industrialization and its significance:

1. "Backward" nations. Among the major powers entering the 20th century, they were the most 'backward' in terms of industrialization/economic modernization [i.e. late industrializers] 2. Still predominantly agrarian/feudalistic until early 20th century [Romanov dynasty: 1613-1917; Ching Dynasty: 1644-1912. Soviet Revolution 1917; PRC Revolution 1949] 3. Agrarian/Pre-industrial social class prior to Revolution: Major social division between landed elites and the large number of peasant farmers, but also small group of professionals/"intelligencia".

The Democratization of Taiwan and its impact on US security

1. 1995-6 Taiwan Straits Crisis: PRC launches missiles in waters surrounding Taiwan in run up to Lee Teng-hui 1996 re-election bid; 2. Chen Shui Bian, native born Taiwanese, leader of the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) defeats KMT [2000, 2004], call for Taiwanese Independence; 3. After returning to One China policy under KMT electoral victory (2008, 2012), DPP returns to power after 2016 election under the leadership of DPP President Tsai Ing-wen. 4. U.S. challenge in managing Cross Straits relations between PRC and Taiwan: How to demonstrate US commitment to Taiwan's security while discouraging its independence from mainland (strategic ambiguity?).

Friedman on Economic Freedom and Political Freedom

1. Capitalism as Freedom: Freedom in economic arrangements is itself a component of freedom broadly understood, so economic freedom is an end in itself. 2. Capitalism supports Democracy: Economic freedom is also an indispensable means toward the achievement of political freedom.

Theoretical/Thematic Concern: How to make sense of the relationship between Capitalism and Democracy

1. Capitalism supports democracy; 2. Capitalism subverts democracy; 3. Democracy supports capitalism; 4. Democracy subverts capitalism.

Foreign Policy Implications for the U.S.:The Post Cold War Legacy in the Case of Russia

1. Crimea and NATO expansion into the former Iron Curtain. 2. Mutually Assured Destruction & Missile Defense System 3. Russia and the Middle East

Politics of China

1. Different Path: - Unabashed Authoritarianism; - Transition from Marxist-Leninism to Market-Leninism during Deng Xiao Ping era. 2. Historical Background: - Long period of Sino-centric domination; - China's 100 years of humiliation {Opium War to Sino- Japanese war}; - Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek and the Chinese revolution.

Robert Dahl's six basic/minimum features of modern democracy:

1. Elected officials; 2. Free, fair and frequent elections; 3. freedom of expression; 4. alternative sources of information; 5. Associational autonomy (freedom of association); 6. Inclusive citizenship.

The Challenges of Continued CCP rule

1. Finding Legitimacy in Market-Leninism; ("Socialism with Chinese Characteristics"?) 2. The Rise of Nationalism;(ex. Patriotic Education Campaign after Tiananmen, Hundred Years of Humiliation) 3. Generational/Recruitment Challenges for the CCP; 4. Growing Income Inequality/Corruption/Social unrest; 5. Human rights (cultural, religious, and civic , ex, Tibet & Xinjiang, Liu Xiabo and call for constitutional democracy "Charter 08")

Timeline of Ukraine Conflict

1. In April 2008, NATO's Bucharest summit declaration proclaimed that Ukraine and Georgia "will become" members of the alliance "eventually". Later that year, the EU launched the Eastern Partnership, an enhanced economic and political offering to Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan— but not Russia. 2. In late November 2013, the Ukrainian government, led by President Viktor Yanukovych, called off preparations to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, the key "deliverable" of the Eastern Partnership, under pressure from Putin.

Contrast of of Putin and Xi Jinping: Xi Jinping

1. Inherited a strong one party system and a strong economy; 2. Has Strengthened his power within Politburo and has continued to preserved one party system and repress dissidents; 3. Leads a country that has continues to rise in power and influence in the world.

Contrast of of Putin and Xi Jinping: Putin

1. Inherited multi-party electoral system and fragile economy; 2. Has strengthened the power of the Presidency and eroded democratic liberties but still upholds 'competitive authoritarianism'; 3. Leads a country that has continued to decline in power and influence in the world.

Politics of China

1. Introduction: Different Path, Different background. 2. The politics of China during the Mao Zedong era (1950-1976) 3. The politics of China during the Deng Xiaoping era (1978 - 1997) 4. China after Deng Xiao Ping (1997- present) 5. Conclusion: the future of Sino - U.S. relations

Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)

1. Launched by Mao in 1966 and led by the 'Gang of Four' faction (which included Jiang Qing, Mao's wife); 2. In the wake of the failure of the Great Leap Forward (GLF), critics of GLF (and Mao) were charged as 'bourgeoise revisionists'. 3. Called for the removal of 'revisionsists',shut down schools and encouraged youths to form the Red Guard. 4. Millions persecuted, including political leaders in the pragmatist faction such as Deng Xiaoping and Liu Shaoqi. 5. Ends with the death of Mao and the arrest of the Gang of Four in 1976.

Marxist-Leninism

1. Marxism: historical, dialectal materialism; revolutionary stage from feudalism to capitalism to socialism. Labor under capitalism: understanding surplus value, exchange value, and use value. 2. Leninism: 'Bolsheviks' (Lenin,Trotsky) broke off from 'Mensheviks'. For Marx, as well as many of his followers, they believed that a predominantly feudal/agrarian nation such as Russia and China would first needed a capitalist/bourgeois revolution before a communist revolution. Lenin disagreed, and argued that one can go directly from feudal to socialist and skip through the bourgeois revolution provided that there was a vanguard party of professional revolutionaries.

Soviet Union during the Gorbachev Era

1. Mikhail Gorbachev (b. 1931; Secretary General from 1985-91) 2. Key Reforms - Political Reform: Glasnost ('Openness'): opened up the political forum and allowed greater freedom of expression for media, political discourse, arts; Established new national legislature with multi-candidates, then multi-party elections; established in 1990 multiparty elections in each republics (Yeltsin wins election for Russian presidency). - Economic Reform: Perestroika ('Restructuring"): gave greater leeway to state run enterprises to determine output; introduced new quality standards; allowed for some private businesses to operate; reorganized ministries; cracked down on alcohol consumption. 3. Unintended Consequences: Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991):

The Politics of China during the Mao era (1950-1976):From Soviet- style state planning to political and economic turmoil

1. One Party System based on Democratic Centralism; 2. Wavers between authoritarian and totalitarian system; 3. The Hundred Flower Campaign and the Cultural Revolution; 4. Factionalism within the Chinese Communist Party (ideologues vs. pragmatists; 5. Mao and the economic disaster of the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962).

The Theoretical Debate: Is China a Threat?

1. Realism - Aaron Friedberg, "Struggle for Mastery in Asia" A. Two Basic assumptions: 1. As China continues to grow more powerful, it will want to once again re-establish historically dominant position in Asia; 2. The United States will not want to give up its current position of dominance(preponderance) in Asia . B. Basic Argument: "The combination of growing Chinese power, China's effort to expand its influence, and the unwillingness of the United States entirely to give way before it are the necessary preconditions of a struggle for master in Asia". [104]

Contrast of Gorbachev and Deng Xiao Ping: Gorbachev

1. Represented new generation of communist leadership; 2. introduced modest economic and political reforms; 3. Oversaw the rise of multi-party system, greater regional autonomy, and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Hundred Flowers Campaign (1956)

1. Short-lived experiment with freedom of expression; 2. Broader international context: Fall of Stalin and rise of Khrushchev; 3. By 1957, harsh crackdown followed when criticism about Mao and Communist Party grew; those targeted publicly reprimanded and sent to prison labor camps. 4. By June 1957, an "anti-rightist" campaign launched by communist party to purge alleged 'rightists' within the CCP.

Russia and China among the largest countries in the world:

1. Soviet Union, roughly 1/6 earth's total land mass, Russia alone 6.6 m 2. China, comparable in size to U.S. (3.7m), with world's largest population.

Domestic Political Implication: The Challenges of nationhood

1. Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Krygystan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, etc. 2. In addition to different dialects (Cantonese, Madarin, etc) ethnic diversity such as Tibetan, Mongolian, Uighur.

General Background

1. The End of the Cold War marked by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russia; 2. U.S. is left standing as the uni-polar hegemon (sole superpower) in the immediate aftermath and expanded its influence aeround the world; 3. Putin has sought to revitalize Russia's economic and military power and reassert Russia's role as a major power on the world stage.

Lindblom: The Market [Capitalism] as Prison

1. The Influence of Capitalism on Democracy: "Many kinds of market reform automatically trigger punishments in the form of unemployment or a sluggish economy. Do we want businesses to carry a larger share of the nation's tax burden? We must fear that such a reform will discourage business investment and curtail employment. Do we want business enterprises to reduce industrial pollution of air and water? Again we must bear the consequences of the costs to them of their doing so and the resultant declines in investment and employment.

the case of russia

1. The Politics of the Soviet Union prior to Gorbachev [1917-1985]: 2. The Gorbachev reforms and the collapse of the Soviet Union [1985-1991] 3. Yeltsin and his Successors [Putin: 2000-08; Medvedev: 2008 to 2012; Putin: 2012-present] 4. Foreign Policy Implications for the U.S.

Josef Stalin (1922-1953) : The creation of a Totalitarian State:

1. totalist ideology: 2. sense of terror arbitrary violence: 3. Control of information: 4. penetration and mobilization of society: 5. single party, usually single person, with monopoly of power.

Friedman: Capitalism as Freedom

1. The characteristic feature of action through political channels is that it tends to require or enforce substantial conformity. The great advantage of the market, on the other hand, is that it permits wide diversity. It is, in political terms, a system of proportional representation. Each man can vote, as it were, for the color of tie he wants and get it; he does not have to see what color the majority wants and then, if he is in the minority, submit.

China and the Tributary System (1500-1800)

1. Traditional Chinese system of managing international relations based on Confucian principles. 2. Bordering Nations around China were considered 'tributaries' of China: Tributary states recognized China's dominance (military/economic/cultural) in return for China's recognition of their authority/sovereignty and the ability to engage in trade with China.. 3. The West absorbed into this system after initial contact: - Portugese: 1516; - Spanish: 1557; - Dutch: 1606; - English: 1637.

Contrast of Gorbachev and Deng Xiao Ping: Deng Xiao Ping

1. Was one of the leading communist revolutionary figures; 2. Introduced significant economic reform but limited political reform; 3. Oversaw military crackdown of democratic movement, strengthened both the communist party and the country.

Marxist-Leninism: Implication

1. rejected the economic component of western liberalism; 2. rejected the political component of western liberalism; 3. Instead, advocated 'democratic centralism' under one party system.

timeline cont'd.

3. Ukrainians come out to protest decision, and use of force against unarmed student protestors lead to massive rallies and call for the overthrow of Yanukovych regime. 4. Yanukovych flees capital and Ukraine parliament takes extra-constitutional action and voted on February 22 to remove Yanukovych out of office.

timeline cont'd.

5. Yanukovych reportedly asks Putin to send Russian troops to invade Ukraine. In February 2014, Putin inserts special forces, paratroopers, and other servicemen and annexes Crimea, and offers aid to pro-Russia supporters in eastern Ukraine. US and Europe begin to impose series of sanctions on Russia. 6. At Paris Summit Meeting held in December 2019, mediated by France and Germany, Ukraine President Zelensky and President Putin agree to fully implement ceasefire and exchange prisoners.

competitive authoritarianism - about

Although elections are regularly held and are generally free of massive fraud, incumbents routinely abuse state resources, deny the opposition adequate media coverage, harass opposition candidates and their supporters, and in some cases manipulate electoral results. Journalists, opposition politicians, and other government critics may be spied on, threatened, harassed, or arrested. Members of the opposition may be jailed, exiled, or—less frequently—even assaulted or murdered. Regimes characterized by such abuses cannot be called democratic. [p.53]

Boris Yeltsin [1991 - 99]:

Ambitious Reforms, Troubling Results - Economic "Shock Therapy": From a state planned to a free market economy; - Russia's uneasy path to democracy; - Outcome: Russia's "Lost Decade" : high inflation, currency crisis and economic decline

Capitalism

An economic system in which private capital or wealth is used in the production or distribution of goods and prices are determined mainly in a free market; the dominance of private owners of capital and of production for profit.

International Political Implication:

As major powers, drawn into balance of power politics and war. maps: - russia almost twice size of US - china slightly bigger than US

General Question

At the end of the Cold War, the United States found itself as the unipolar hegemon and was able to expand its power and influence around the world; Now that other powers have risen, what should we do in the face of a potential Thucydides Trap? 1. double down and do more? 2. retreat back to our isolationist origins?

The Thucydides Trap

Attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power; Based on the current trajectory, war between China and U.S. more likely than recognized; Judging by the historical record, more likely than not. [12 out of the 16 cases in last 500 years led to war] Rising power demands greater say and sway, established power fear loss of status quo.

The Politics of the Soviet Union prior to Gorbachev

Basic Attribute: a Centrally Planned economy wavering between a totalitarian and authoritarian political system.

Global Triumph of Western Liberalism? Which Liberalism?, and how are they related?

Capitalism - The Economic Institution of Western Liberalism; Democracy - The Political Institution of Western Liberalism;

Almond's overview of Capitalism and Democracy

Capitalism is Good for Democracy - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations [1776] - Milton Friedman: - Modernization theory - Historical Evidence: capitalism is a necessary but not sufficient condition for democracy. [ie. all long enduring democracies are capitalism, but not all capitalist are non enduring democracies ]

Key Security Issue II: Sovereignty and Territorial Issues

China's "Nine Dotted Lines": Spratlys (China, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam); Paracels ( China and Vietnam); Sea lanes and UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea).

China's civil war and the emergence of two Chinas

Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) - Joined KMT in 1918; - Succeeded Sun Yat-sen as head of Nationalist Party (KMT) in 1925; - Anti-Japanese, anti-communist; pro-Confucian; - Favored landlords and merchants over peasants. Mao Tse-tong (1893-1976) - Son of a farmer in Hunan Province; - Worked as a librarian at Peking University during May 4th Movement (1919); - Joined Communist Party of China in 1921; - Advocated rural revolution.

Friedman: Capitalism Supports Democracy as Freedom

Economic freedom as a check to political tyranny: "The fundamental threat to freedom is power to coerce, be it in the hands of a monarch, a dictator, an oligarchy, or a momentary majority. The preservation of freedom requires the elimination of such concentration of power to the fullest possible extent and the dispersal and distribution of whatever power cannot be eliminated -- a system of checks and balances. By removing the organization of economic activity from the control of political authority, the market eliminates this source of coercive power. It enables economic strength to be a check to political power rather than a reinforcement."

The Politics of the Soviet Union prior to Gorbachev: Central Planned Economy under Gosplan (State Planning Committee)

Economic success in the early decades followed by economic stagnation

Central Planned Economy under Gosplan (State Planning Committee)

Economic success in the early decades followed by economic stagnation: 1. Rapid industrialization under the first two FYP (1928-37): - Coal production rises from 36 to 130 million tons; - Iron production from 3 to 15 million; - Oil production from 2 to 29 million; - Electricity production from 5 billion to 36 billion kilowatts 2. Industrialization strengthened both economy and military, Soviets key to defeating Nazi Germany during WWII, Launched Sputnik in 1950s. 3. Economic slowdown from 1970s onward.

The Democratic Prospects of Post-Communist Regimes

Empirical and Theoretical Overview I. Different Political Outcomes: - The Case of Russia: "Competitive Authoritarianism" (Levitsky & Way) - The Case of China: Market-Leninism , unapologetic authoritarianism II. Historical Timing and Socio-economic Structural factors: - Demographic Comparison of China, Russia and U.S. - Level of wealth comparison of China, Russia and U.S. III. Historical Timing and the role of Agency - Individual Actors and the options they choose in key moments; - Contrast of Gorbachev and Deng Xiao Ping; - Contrast of of Putin and Xi Jinping.

U.S.-led security alliance: NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

Established at the start of the Cold War in 1949; Began as an international security alliance, led by the U.S., and comprised of 12 North American and Western European countries; During the Cold War, Eastern European countries on the other side of the "Iron Curtain" formed the Warsaw Pact alliance with the Soviet Union; With the end of the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact dissolved and NATO begins to expand.

Leonid Brezhnev (1964-1982):

Helped plot coup against Khrushchev; Strengthened repressive authoritarianism;

Putin, 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy, 2/12/2007

I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernisation of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them. But I will allow myself to remind this audience what was said. I would like to quote the speech of NATO General Secretary Mr Woerner in Brussels on 17 May 1990. He said at the time that: "the fact that we are ready not to place a NATO army outside of German territory gives the Soviet Union a firm security guarantee". Where are these guarantees?

Gabriel Almond, "Capitalism and Democracy"

I. Capitalism and democracy are the two most important domestic institutions that determine how values and resources are created and allocated. II. How do we make sense of the complex relationship between these two institutions? III. Break it Down into Four Components: 1. Capitalism is essential for democracy; 2. Capitalism subverts democracy; 3. Democracy subverts capitalism; 4. Democracy is essential for capitalism.

China: International Economic Concerns

I. China's Large Trade Surplus with U.S.; - Consumers vs. Producers?; - Unfair trade (Exchange rate manipulation)?; - Trade vs US Foreign Direct Investment in China (from Apple, GM and Ford, to Nike and Coca Cola) II. China's foreign exchange reserve and U.S.; III. Broader theoretical questions: - Even if Adam Smith and David Ricardo are right about total world growth, what about distributional and environmental implications?; - What constitutes cooperation/support in maintaining international economic stability, and what constitutes defection/rejection?

Friedman on Democracy and Its Impact on Capitalism

I. Democracy is bad for Capitalism "The citizen of the United States who is compelled by law to devote something like 10 per cent of his income to the purchase of a particular kind of retirement contract, administered by the government, is being deprived of a corresponding part of his personal freedom."

Democratic Centralism: Rhetoric vs. Reality

I. Rhetoric: Lenin: "freedom of discussion and criticism, unity of action". Establish a system with both democratic and centralized elements. members of the political party free to discuss and debate matters of policy and direction; but once the decision by the party was made, all members expected to follow that decision unquestioningly. II. Reality: Very little evidence of democracy; Central Advisory Committee and Politburo made most decisions; Wavered between totalitarian and authoritarian regime:

Russia and the Middle East

I. The Soviet War in Afghanistan, 1979-1989; - Afghan govt. supported by Soviets overthrown in 1978 coup; - Soviet troops sent in amid armed conflict between rival groups; - US provides support to the Mujahadeen rebels. II. The Chechen-Russian conflict; - Chechnya declares independence from Russia; - Russian forces invade Chechnya in 1994, withdraws after two years; - Russian forces invade Chechnya again in 1999, and gains control. III. Russia's alliance with Syria

China's International Challenges and Implications for U.S.

I. The challenges of navigating U.S.-China relations after the Cold War: - absence of Soviet buffer: US can no longer rely on Soviet threat to get China to accept US position. At the same time, the end of the Cold war also means China is no longer able to play US off of USSR. II. Two Key Areas of Realist Concerns: 1. Managing Cross-Strait relations [China & Taiwan]; 2. Territorial and Security Concerns;

INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty abandoned by Trump

INF Treaty signed in 1987, the treaty banned the United States and Russia from developing or deploying any ground-launched missiles that could travel between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, or about 300 to 3,400 miles; Designed to prevent potential conflicts in Europe from escalating to nuclear war; In conjunction with AMB development, both Russia and China increase ground launched missile capability; In December 2019, President Trump announces US withdrawal from 1987 INF treaty.

Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)

In 2001, U.S. unilaterally withdraws from Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, purportedly to protect US from rogue nations (ie Iran, North Korea).Putin calls the decision a "mistake", raises concern that it may ultimately undermine Russian nuclear deterrent. In 2007, U.S. starts formal negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic to deploy BMD. Putin warns U.S. of renewing Cold War. August 2008 - US and Poland sign an agreement to deploy missile defense interceptors in Poland; With NATO expansion, former Warsaw pact countries such as Poland and Romania have been incorporated into the BMD over the objection of Putin.

COMPETITIVE AUTHORITARIANISM - defined

In competitive authoritarian regimes, formal democratic institutions (i.e. elections, legislature) are widely viewed as the principal means of obtaining and exercising political authority. Incumbents violate those rules so often and to such an extent, however, that the regime fails to meet conventional minimum standards for democracy. [p.52]

The Sanctions

In early 2014, following Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and continued involvement in separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, the United States, European Union, and several other Western countries imposed sanctions. Throughout 2014, these measures progressed from the diplomatic (limits on previously scheduled meetings and talks), to curbs on specific individuals and organizations (targeted visa bans and asset freezes), and finally, in July and September, to restrictions on Russia's financial, defense, and energy sectors. The latter limited access to capital markets and low-interest loans, imposed an arms embargo and ban on exports of dual-use items to military clients, and prohibited export of innovative extractive technology (with special approval required for all other energy-related exports). Since 2014, the sanctions have been sustained and augmented, but they have remained within these categories. Russia felt the whole spectrum of sanctions in three immediate ways: increased volatility on foreign exchange markets, leading to significant depreciation of the ruble and resulting inflationary pressures; restricted access to financial markets; and depressed consumption and investment.

The Politics of the Soviet Union prior to Gorbachev: Democratic centralism in rhetoric vs. reality

Josef Stalin and Totalitarianism (1922-1953); Nikita Khrushchev: De-Stalinization and Political Opening (1953-1964); Leonid Brezhnev: Authoritarianism and stability (1964-1982).

China after Deng Xiao Ping (1997- present)

Leadership after Deng Xiao Ping: - Jiang Zemin (1997-2003); (E) - Hu Jintao (2003- 2013);(P) - Xi Jinping (2013 - present).(E) Factional Split: - "elitist/princelings": children of revolutionary leaders/high ranking party officials, usually began career in rich coastal areas, supported by business elites (especially state run enterprises), pro-free market reforms. - "populist" coalition: generally from less privileged background, began career in less prosperous inland provinces, climbed political ladder through communist youth league, more sympathetic to farmers, migrant workers, urban poor.

Liu Xiabo (1955-2017)

Long time advocate of political reform and human rights in China; Arrested for his participation in Tiananmen demonstration; Author of Charter 08, calling for constitutional democracy; Winner of Nobel Peace Prize in 2010.

winston churchill's iron curtain speech

March 1946, Winston Churchill--an iron curtain had descended across East and West Europe, separating Western democracies from Eastern, Communist countries; warned Americans of future conflict with USSR "... A shadow has fallen upon the scenes so lately lighted by the Allied victory. Nobody knows what Soviet Russia and its Communist international organisation intends to do in the immediate future, or what are the limits, if any, to their expansive and proselytising tendencies..... From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow."

The political philosophy that guided SU and PRC:

Marxist-Leninism

Thucydides on the Peloponnesian War

Melian Dialogue between Conquering Athens and Defeated Melos: "For ourselves, we shall not trouble you with specious pretenses either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede, or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us--and make a long speech which would not be believed; and in return we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you did not join the Spartans, although their colonists, or that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible, holding in view the real sentiments of us both; since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Thucydides, 5.89

Vladimir Putin (2000-08, re-elected 2012-present) & Medvedev (2008 - 2012)

Political: "Competitive Authoritarianism"; Elections held regularly, and various political parties compete, but: press censorship and intimidation; Assassination of notable critics; Electoral fraud/abuse; strong executive decree powers. Russia's economic recovery followed by stagnation.

A Liberal Perspective: Michael McFaul, Moscow's Choice, (Foreign Affairs, 2014)

Russian foreign policy did not grow more aggressive in response to U.S. policies; it changed as a result of Russian internal political dynamics. The shift began when Putin and his regime came under attack for the first time ever. After Putin announced that he would run for a third presidential term, Russia held parliamentary elections in December 2011 that were just as fraudulent as previous elections... Putin despised the protesters for their ingratitude. In his view, he had made them rich. How could they turn on him now? But he also feared them, especially in the wake of the "color revolutions" in eastern Europe (especially the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine) and the Arab Spring. In an effort to mobilize his electoral base and discredit the opposition, Putin recast the United States as an enemy.

Taiwan Relations Act (1979) & "Strategic Ambiguity"

Section 2.2. "It is the policy of the United States - - to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means; - to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States; - to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; - to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."

the cold war: origins and implications george kennan and the "long telegraph"

Stalin, who inherited leadership of Soviet Union after Lenin, was both brutal and insecure, and felt that unless he consolidated power, could not gain the security needed to move the nation forward. After consolidating his power, Stalin was unwilling to relinquish it. Cultivated the "semi-myth" of foreign hostility to justify his autocratic power. Implication for U.S. foreign policy: "In these circumstances it is clear that the main element of any US policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of a long-term, patient but firm vigilant containment of Russian expansionist tendencies".

Uigher "Reeducation" centers in Xinjiang

Starting in 2014, "reeducation" detention centers in Xinjiang created; Up to 38 total centers, estimates of 800,000 to 2 million people detained. UN request for access to camps denied by Chinese government.

us strategy of containment

The Berlin Blockade and the division of Germany [1948-9] The Korean War and the division of Korea [1950-1953] Cuban Missile Crisis & The Vietnam War [1960s- 1970s] Provided support in proxy wars: Afghanistan, Angola, Nicaragua [1980s]

The Opium War (1839-1842) and the The 19th Century Rise of British Hegemony and the Collapse of the Tributary System

The British East India Company extensively smuggles opium into China in late 1700s; Opium epidemic breaks out in port of Canton, Chinese crown sends Imperial Commissioner Lin Tse-hsu to Canton to eliminate the problem; After failed negotiations, Lin confiscates and destroys opium; The British government declares war, defeats China, and signs Treaty of Nanjing in 1842. For the next hundred years ("Hundred Years of Humiliation"), China suffers repeated onslaught from foreign powers, first Great Britain, France and other western countries, then from Japan.

U.S. - China Rapprochement: The Shanghai Communique (1972): CHINESE SIDE

The Chinese side: the Taiwan question is the crucial question obstructing the normalization of relations between China and the United States; the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China; Taiwan is a province of China which has long been returned to the motherland; the liberation of Taiwan is China's internal affair in which no other country has the right to interfere; and all U.S. forces and military installations must be withdrawn from Taiwan. The Chinese Government firmly opposes any activities which aim at the creation of "one China, one Taiwan", "one China, two governments", "two Chinas", an "independent Taiwan" or advocate that "the status of Taiwan remains to be determined".

Managing Cross Straits Relations (China and Taiwan)

The Shanghai Communique (The Joint Communique of the United States of America and the People's Republic of China: 1972): 2nd Joint Communique (January, 1, 1979); Taiwan Relations Act (1979) and the Mixed Blessings of Taiwan's democratization (late 1980s).

Lindblom: The Market [Capitalism] as Prison

The Privileged Position of Business in a Democracy 1. In a capitalist economy, businesses are the backbone of the economy. 2. Command vs. Incentive: In a capitalist economy, business cannot be commanded to make investment decisions. Instead they operate according to market incentives and disincentives. 3. Business disincentives hurt employment prospects, local economy, investors, and even politicians.

U.S. - China Rapprochement: The Shanghai Communique (1972): US SIDE

The U.S. side: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all U.S. forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes.

Zhirinovsky's A-Z

The army. What an army needs are armed conflicts, both inside and outside the country. Only wars will revive the Russian army. Russia's neighbours. We should only threaten regions from where Russians are being expelled with the possibility of doing the same to their people living in Russia. Take Azerbaijan. Five hundred thousand Russians used to live there. Now only 100,000 remain, but a million Azeris wander around Russia. So, to begin with, we, should expel 400,000 Azeris and deport them to Baku. If they harm the Russians there, we would expel the whole million of them. One must not forget that democracy also implies violence. The East. I would bomb the Japanese. I would sail our large navy around their small island and if they so much as cheeped, I would nuke them. Jews. Our voters are tired of so many non-Russian faces on television. They want some Slav faces with Russian accents ... Sometimes Russia has been overwhelmed by anti-Semitism. This phenomenon was provoked only by the Jews themselves. Russia is a kind nation. Marriage. If I had found a loving woman, perhaps I would have expended half of my energy, or most of it, on her. [Mr Zhirinovsky is married, with one son.]

Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his Successors

Transition away from Marxist-Leninism to Western Liberalism, but a failure to consolidate western liberal democracy.

The Politics of China during the Deng era (1978-1997)

Transition from Marxist-Leninism to "Market-Leninism": Sweeping Economic Reform but remains an unpologetixc I. Sweeping Economic Reform: - rejection of key Marxist principles: 1. the useful role of private property; 2. allow market forces to allocate resources and determine price; 3. use material incentives to increase productivity and efficiency. - agricultural, industrial and international reforms: 1. agricultural reform: household responsibility system 2, industry: privatization of state enterprises; 3. international: creation of special economic zones Economic Result: China becomes the fasting growing economy in the world; high trade surplus, foreign exchange reserve.

White House Cabinet Meeting on Trade: (February 13, 2018)

Trump: "They're dumping and destroying our industry, and destroying the families of workers, and we can't let that happen." Roy Blunt (Republican Senator ): "Mr President, I think we do need to be careful here, that we don't start a reciprocal battle on tariffs. You know, we make aluminum and we make steel. But we buy a lot of aluminum and we buy a lot of steel as well...from bass boats to beer cans."

Divergent Pathways from Marxist-Leninism:The Political Transition of Russia and China

china 1. Communist Revolution: 1949 2. The Politics of the People's Republic of China under Mao (1949-76) 3. Deng Xiao Ping: From Marxist-Leninism to Market-Leninism. (1978-97); 4. Politics of PRC after Deng.

russian gdp since 1989 graph

down in yeltsin up in putin up then down then up with medvedev gradually up then down in putin

Nikita Khrushchev (1953-1964): De-Stalinization and Political Opening:

millions of soviets in prison camps(gulags) released; Opened up freedom of expression; cult of personality denounced; state terror abandoned; Antagonized KGB.

Divergent Pathways from Marxist-Leninism:The Political Transition of Russia and China

russia 1. Communist Revolution: 1917; 2. The Politics of the Soviet Union: from Stalin to Brezhnev; 3. Gorbachev and the Collapse of the Soviet Union (1985-91); 4. Post Communist Russia: Yeltsin and his successors.

former cold war rivals today:

russia and china