Population

or all births minus all the deaths in a given population over a given time period.

((In-Migration)-(Out Migration)) / all the in-migration minus all the out-migration in a given population over a given time period.

Natural increase

(Births-Deaths) / all births minus all the deaths in a given population over a given time period.

United States Population and Key Rates

1790 (the 1st US Census) 3.93 million and 2009 306.18 million (estimated by the US Census Bureau). At its first official Census, the US had more than 4 million inhabitants, but it failed to count Natives, Blacks, and other racial groups. In the 219 years represented in Figure 1, you can see that the US population has increased nearly 78 times since its 1790 count-this taking into consideration all the births, all the deaths, and all the in-out migration.

Neo-Malthusian

A contemporary antinatalist named Paul Ehrlich wrote the book, The Population Bomb in 1968 (Ballantine Books). He is considered to be a Neo-Malthusian, or an antinatalist who agrees with Malthus, but rejects his conservative and religious proscriptions. Much of the governmental organizations in the world today are antinatalistic.

Crude Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates for Selected Regions and Countries*

Country / Crude CBR / Total Fertility TFR More developed / 12 / 1.6 Less Developed / 23 / 2.8 Africa / 37 / 4.9 Latin America/Caribbean / 21 /2.5 Asia (Excluding China) / 23 / 2.4 China / 12 / 1.6 Liberia / 50 / 6.8 Canada / 11 / 1.6 Mexico / 20 / 2.3 United States / 14 / 2.1 Italy / 9 / 1.3 Japan / 9 / 1.0 World / 21 / 2.6 Africa is the "birth hot spot" of the world and has been since about 1950. It has a projected population change of an increase of 100 percent between the years 2008-2050. A few African nations are higher and some are a bit lower. Uganda for example should experience a 263 percent increase while Swaziland should experience a 33 percent decline. The 6.8 TFR for Liberia means that the average woman is expected to have 6.8 children there. In the US it is only 2.1. This is an important indicator of population change because there is a principle which states that it requires a minimum TFR of 2.1 for the population to replace the man and woman who made the children and a TFR of 2.3 to begin to expand the population. Thus you can see from Table 4 that the less-developed regions of the world (especially Africa) are expected to grow, while the more developed (especially Japan) should not grow. Japan should decrease by 25 percent between 2008-2050.

Crude Death Rates and Infant Mortality Rates for Selected Regions and Countries*

Country / Crude Death CDR/ Infant Mortality More developed / 10 / 6.0 Less Developed / 8 / 54.0 Africa / 14 / 82.0 Latin America/Caribbean / 6 / 23.0 Asia (Excluding China) / 7 / 45.0 China / 7 / 23.0 Liberia / 18 / 133.0 Canada / 7 / 5.5 Mexico / 5 / 19.0 United States / 14 / 2.1 Italy / 10 / 4.2 Japan / 9 / 2.8 World / 8 / 49

10 most populated countries of the world in 2008 and the US ranks 3rd in 2008. The US is one of the most populated nations of the world and is estimated to continue to rank 3rd even in 2050. Interestingly, in 2050, India will rank 1st and China 2nd

Country / Estimated Population 2008 1 China / 1,324,700,000 2 India / 1,149,300,000 3 United States / 304,500,000 4 Indonesia / 239,900,000 5 Brazil / 195,100,000 6 Pakistan / 172,800,000 7 Nigeria / 148,100,000 8 Bangladesh / 147,300,000 9 Russia / 141,900,000 10 Japan / 127,700,000 Ten Most Populated Countries in the World, 2050* 1 India / 1,755,200,000 2 China / 1,437,000,000 3 United States / 438,200,000 4 Indonesia / 343,100,000 5 Pakistan / 295,200,000 6 Nigeria / 282,200,000 7 Brazil / 259,800,000 8 Bangladesh / 215,100,000 9 Congo, De. Rep. / 189,300,000 10 Philippines / 150,100,000

Growth Rates and Doubling Times for Selected Countries 2008*

Country / Growth Rate /Doubling Time Years More developed / 0.2 / 350 Less Developed / 1.5 / 47 Africa / 2.4 / 29 Latin America/Caribbean / 1.5 / 47 Asia (Excluding China) / 1.5 / 47 China / 0.5 / 140 Liberia / 3.1 / 23 Canada / 0.3 / 233 Mexico / 1.6 / 44 United States / 0.6 / 116 Italy / 0.0 / Can't Calculate Japan / 0.0 / Can't Calculate World / 1.2 / 58

Population Pyramid

Every population/society can be compared by an age-sex structural approach called the Population Pyramid, or the graphic representation of specified 5-year age groups within a population and by being males or females. even though there are slightly more females than males, their relative proportions appear about even here. It also shows you the bulge of the Baby Boomers. By 1990, the Baby Boomers would have been between ages 26-44. The high fertility rates of the years 1946-1964 echo in the bulge of this pyramid. Also there is an interesting sex differences among the older US population. There are far more females than males in the later years. By the year 2050 the oldest Baby Boomer would have to be 104 years old to still be alive. The Youngest Baby Boomer would be 86. These pyramids also show that there will be a similar proportion of males and females. Because birth rates are low and are remaining that way, you see a widening look as the pyramid portrays the population more as a column than a pyramid. Population pyramids can actually take on any number of shapes. But the true pyramid shape comes only when there are high birth rates (a wider pyramid in the younger ages) and people die soon (a narrower pyramid in the older years at the top of the pyramid).

Migration.

If someone moves out of your country they are called emigrants. Once there, they'd be considered to be an immigrant. The US has far more immigrants (arrivals) than emigrants (departures) every year. Demographers consider two very important factors in understanding migration: push and pull. About 1 in 6 people in the US moves each year. College students, job seekers, transferees, divorcees, and most recently people needing to live with extended family because of tough economic times all contribute to the migration process within the United States. As we finish the demography chapter, keep in mind that demography effects everything and everything effects demography

United States and World Population Clocks 2009*

In the US, every hour 432 babies are born, totaling up to about 3,784,320 in a year (please note that this estimate tends to be lower than the actual number reported by the US's Vital Statistics at 4.2 million births, because estimates are calculate base on previous years' rates, whereas the Vital Statistics are actual counts made 2 years after the actual data has been collected and tabulated. In the world, every hour 15,834 babies are born adding up to 138,715,000 per year. Births Per / United States / World Second / 0.12 / 4.40 Minute / 7.20 / 264.00 Hour / 432.00 / 15,835.00 Day / 10,368.00/ 380,041.00 Year / 3,784,320.00 / 138,715,000.00 Deaths Per/ United States / World Second / 0.08 / 1.80 Minute / 4.80 / 108.00 Hour / 288.00 / 6,481.00 Day / 6,912.00 / 155,553.00 Year / 2,522,880.00 / 56,777,000.00 If you can hold your breath for 30 seconds, about 2 people will die in the US and over 54 will die worldwide during that time.

Antinatalist

There are two distinct perspectives that relate to births in a population. Antinatalist/ Pronatalist is a perspective which opposes childbearing Antinatalists oppose birth, support contraceptive, abortions, and sterilization along with the education of women. Educating a woman is the most effective way of lowering her fertility. The US had an antinatalist perspective until then President Ronald Reagan changed the US foreign policy in the 1984 population conference held in Mexico City. President Bill Clinton eventually changed it back to antinatalist. George W. Bush changed it back to pronatalist and President Barack Obama changed it back to antinatalist again. Once a US President chooses the nation's perspective, international and local policies come into effect by supporting pro-or antinatalist programs. The antinatalists blame too many babies and people, too much destruction of the natural environment, the existence of the traditional family, and capitalistic profit-seeking at the cost of global well-being. Bottom line is that the World Health Organization, World Bank, United Nations, United States, and all of the other more developed nations of the world are Neo-Malthusian/Antinatalistic to some degree or another.

Pronatalist

There are two distinct perspectives that relate to births in a population. Antinatalist/ Pronatalist is a perspective which promotes birth and increased population. Pronatalists support birth, large families, extended families, and the governmental support of childbearing The pronatalists point out that there is plenty of food in the world and always has been. They blame political and social mismanagement for the social ills, not the high birth rates. Look at Figure 4 below to see the estimated world population from 10,000 BC to 2009 AD (these are only estimated since there were very few government statistics prior to the industrial revolution). You can clearly see that there were millions and millions of people on the earth throughout the history of the world. Pronatalists argue that for the most part, civilizations ate, lived, and thrived and still do today. When they starved it was typically some political or natural disaster factor not a Malthusian shortage that explained it. Besides, they argue, Malthus underestimated the enormous gains in medical, agricultural, environmental, political, and other sciences that have given this world the highest standard of living it has ever known. the people of the less developed regions of the world live a pronatalist's lifestyle and thereby are mainly responsible for the rapidly increasing growth of births into the world population.

The first Antinatalist was

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834). He was a Reverend and English scholar who took a strong stance against the unprepared parents of his day. To him "prepared parents" had established their education and livelihood, their household, and their marriage before they considered getting pregnant. Keep in mind that there were very few effective methods of birth control at this time, so Malthus came across as a hardliner against parenting. He published half a dozen editions of his work, An Essay on the Principles of Population (1798-1830) which were extremely controversial, yet carefully read by many influential people of his day. For Malthus the problem was that populations grew more rapidly than the production of food, which to him was the cause of many social ills in the new industrial societies of Europe. He declared that no sex before marriage, forced sterilization, and criminal treatment of unprepared parents would be the new conservative norm.

Less Developed Nations

are nations located near to or south of the Equator which have less wealth and more of the world's population of inhabitants including: Africa, India, Central and South America, most island nations, and most of Asia (Excluding China). China has the most strict fertility policy in the world and is often excluded from the rest of Asia in most official reports. There are approximately 68 percent of the 6.7 billion peoples of this world who now live in less developed countries (roughly 4.56 billion people). In the year 2055 (the year 2008 + 47 years=2055) there should be 9.12 billion people living in the less developed regions of the world.

More Developed Nations

are nations with comparably higher wealth than most countries of the world including: Western Europe; Canada, United States, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. The more developed regions of the world will not double in any of our lifetimes (it would be the year 2358 according to these data).

Push Factors

are negatives aspects of where you live which make you consider leaving. Push factors include wars, famines, political hostility, natural disasters, and other harsh circumstances that create an environment conducive to looking for another place to live.

Pull Factors

are positive aspects of another place which draw you to migrate to it. Pull factors include economic prosperity, jobs, food, safety, asylum, and the hope of survival that draws people to move to the desired location.

The core of demographic studies has three component concerns:

births, deaths, and migration. All of demography can be reduced to this very simple formula: (Births-Deaths) +/- ((In-Migration)-(Out Migration))=Population Change.

Demographic Transition Theory

claims that populations go through 3 distinct stages that correspond to the onset of the Industrial Revolution with regard to changes in birth and death rates. the Demographic Transition Theory has three distinct stages. Stage 1, the Pre-Industrial Revolution Stage, encompassed the world's population up until about 1700 AD. Much of the world's population grew very slowly up to that point. That's all it could do because the high birth rates were offset by the high death rates (lots of people were born and they died soon). Stage 2 or the Industrial Revolution Stage saw the decline in death rates while birth rates remained high. This is the perfect demographic storm for population growth and this coincides with the rapid growth of populations in Western Civilizations (lots of people were born and they died later in life). The Post-Industrial Revolution, Stage 3 came with the technical and computer chip revolution that raised the standard of living so much that death rates remained low while birth rates dropped (fewer people being born and they die even later in life). he Demographic Transition theory did describe what happened in Western Europe, Canada, The United States, Australia , and Japan. But, it does not fit so neatly in the less developed countries of the world. They never really had an Industrial Revolution, they only benefited from the European one. They never really moved fully into the technological and computer chip revolution. It just spills over to them gradually. Because of post World War II medical delivery systems and because of international aid, the less developed countries of the world have had their death rates decline and their lives have been extended. But, their birth rates remain relatively high Very concerted antinatalistic efforts have been implemented in the less developed countries of the world over the last 40 years. Scientists can measure a gradual lowering of the birth rates as a direct result from it. But, keep in mind that however they got there, the peoples of the less developed regions of the world are still in Stage 2 and have explosive population trends that will continue for the next 40-50 years.

Fertility

is a measure of the number of children born to a woman.

Heterosexuality

is sex between a man and woman and is the most common way of transmitting AIDS throughout the world. Scientists from many different disciplines study and track diseases such as AIDS and the others.

True Rate

is the "Number of events/ Number" at risk of the event. In other words, the Crude Birth Rate is not a true rate because it includes children, males and the elderly in the denominator of "1,000 population."

Immigration

is the arrival of a foreigner into a country they will reside in and likely become a citizen of on some future date.

Emigration

is the departure from your country of origin to reside in another.

Census Enumeration

is the formal counting of a population by its government. Based on the US Census, the US population was 248,709,000 Numbers of Births, Deaths, and Net Migrationa for the United States between 1990-1999b Births = 39,860,000 - Deaths = 22,711,000 + Net Migration = 9,580,000 = Population Change +26,729,000 By the end of 1999 the population was estimated to be (1990)+(1990-1999 population change)=1999 population or (248,709,000)+(26,729,000)=275,438,000. These estimates are very close to the actual July 1st, 1999 US Census estimates

Crude Death Rate

is the number of deaths in a given population per 1,000 people living in that population. Again, this is not a true rate because not all members of society have the same risks of dying (IE: 30 year-olds not at the same risks of death as 80 year-olds). The nation with the worst Crude Death Rate is Sierra Leone at 23. The best CDR's are found in the Middle East (Qatar and the United Arab Emirates at 2). 1) more babies are born in developing nations of the world than in the developed ones; 2) more infants and other people die sooner in the less developed regions of the world than in the developed ones; and 3) most of the world's future population growth will come from the less developed regions of the world.

Infant Mortality Rate

is the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The CDR and IMR vary greatly between countries and regions. The nations with the worst IMR happen to be Afghanistan at 163 and Sierra Leone at 158. The best IMR is found in Iceland at 1.3. The US does not have the best IMR. This is most likely a consequence of not having universal medical care.

Crude Birth Rate

is the number of live births per 1,000 people living in the population. It's called crude because it ignores age-specific risks of getting pregnant. the Crude Birth Rate is not a true rate because it includes children, males and the elderly in the denominator of "1,000 population." the higher rates for Utah in comparison to the US and Vermont. Before 1991, Alaska often competed with Utah for the highest state birth rate. Vermont is the lowest state rate today, but has also competed with Maine in past years.

Fecundity

is the physiological ability to conceive or give birth to children.

Epidemiology

is the scientific study of diseases, their transmission, and their management. The US has the most advanced disease tracking and epidemiological management system which is found at the Center for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia

Demography

is the scientific study of population growth and change. Everything in society influences demography and demography conversely influences everything in society children born from 1946-1964 were called the Baby Boom Generation (there are about 78 million of them alive today

Death

is the termination of the body, its systems, and brain activity in an irreversible way. Death is a part of life. All of us are at risk of dying, but not all of us share the same risks. To be born around or below the equator, female, tribal, and non-white represents risk factors not shared by those born in the US, female, suburban, and non-white (think about Max Weber's Life Chances). In fact, in many cases migrants to the US raise their life expectancies higher than they would have been back in their less developed home countries. Top 10 causes of death in the US. Heart disease is and has been the number 1 killer in the US for decades. Heart disease has lead world-wide causes of death for decades as well. Top 4 causes are highly correlated with tobacco use. And since smoking is becoming much more common in less developed countries, cancer is predicted to become the number 1 cause of death world-wide by 2010 with over 40 percent of the world's smokers living in China and India. In less developed nations there are other significant causes of death that we don't worry about here as much. Malaria, AIDS, accidents, maternal death, diarrhea, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, local exotic diseases, and other infectious and parasitic diseases. In fact, AIDS or Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome is much more common in Africa and parts of Asia than in any other region of the world.

Doubling Time

is the time required for a population to double if the current growth rate continues. To calculate the doubling time you simply divide 70 by the current growth rate of the country and that yields the number of years required for the double. The world's population should double in 58 years. Liberia on the other hand should double its population in only 23 years. most of the world's population now lives in the less developed regions of the world and they will double in about 47 years.

Total Fertility Rate

is the total number of children ever born to a woman calculated both individually and at the societal level.

Zero Population Growth

occurs when a population neither shrinks nor expands from year to year.