PSCI_250_Final

Ilya Somin, Democracy and Political Ignorance

"Extensive research suggests that most Americans have little political knowledge. That ignorance covers knowledge of specific issues, knowledge of political leaders and parties, and knowledge of political institutions"

Konnikova, On the Face of It: The Psychology of Electability

"It was competence alone that had the snap-judgment predictive power." The more Todorov asked his subjects to reflect on their answer, the less accurately their responses tracked with actual outcomes and responses became no different than a chance guess.

Barbara F. Walter, How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them

A civil war would start in the form of coordinated terrorist attacks. Terrorism is effective in a democracy because the targets (citizens) have political power. The ethnic cleansing process involves the classification and symbolization stages, highlighting differences in citizens and categorizing them. "Discrimination" is stage three, "dehumanization" is stage four, "organization" is stage five, "polarization" is stage six, and a "leaderless movement" employs terror strategies such as intimidation, outbidding, and spoiling as the next strategy. Stage seven involves "preparation," "persecution," and "extermination," followed by "denial."

Brian Resnick, Trump is a real-world political science experiment

A recent experiment by Barber and Pope revealed that Republicans are more likely to adopt liberal policies when Trump supports them. Trump's unique characteristic of easily shifting positions without explanation provides an unprecedented opportunity to test and prove the "follow the leader" theory in politics. The experiment suggests that the highest knowledge voters remain resistant to Trump's sway, while the bottom 75% are more susceptible. Trump's influence may have led to significant swings in Republican public opinion. Despite few people holding stable policy views, stable party affiliations persist. One notable reason for Trump's influence is attributed to his role as a toxic meme machine. Although some prominent Republicans have criticized Trump, it is speculated that these efforts might not be sufficient to break his influence over the party.

Ashley Jardina, White Identity Politics

A substantial portion of the white population perceives monumental social and political changes, such as the erosion of white majority status and the election of the first black president, as challenges to their perceived dominance. These perceived threats have fostered a sense of commonality, attachment, and solidarity among whites with their racial group. Importantly, many whites identify with their racial group without necessarily harboring prejudice towards racial and ethnic minorities. The politics of white identity are not only rooted in economic disenfranchisement but are pervasive, grounded in a psychological attachment to a racial group. Construction of whiteness revolves around relationship with American identity, the adoption of a sense of pride and entitlement, and the prevalence of a sense of grievance and deprivation. A survey of 56 white respondents reveals that those with higher levels of racial identity more supportive of exclusionary boundaries. Significant proportion of high white identifiers acknowledge their group's privilege, with 34% stating their group is privileged. Most whites do not report feeling a collective sense of racial guilt. Higher white identity levels are associated with the belief that whites are privileged, and many white identifiers recognize these advantages without expressing a desire to relinquish them. White consciousness is linked to perceptions of discrimination experienced by whites but not necessarily tied to denial of discrimination faced by blacks or Hispanics. Approximately one-fourth of low-identifiers adopt a "color-blind" philosophy, indicating a diverse range of perspectives within the white population on matters of racial identity and privilege.

Kinder, Dale-Riddle, "The End of Race?"

Americans belong to numerous social groups, providing them with a broad range of identities to construct. Attitudes toward these social groups can influence electoral choices. The activation of specific aspects of identity and attitude depends on political circumstances in the short term. The potency of social groups as electoral forces is influenced by the election frame, with prominence and clarity of cues indicating substantial differences between candidates in their preferences for or against certain social groups. Without such cues, social groups may not factor into a voter's considerations. Social groups influence individuals through identification with in-groups and attitudes toward out-groups.

Zaller, "Monica Lewinsky and the Mainsprings of American Politics"

Argues that political parties remain crucial in American politics despite perceptions of their decline. He contends that, contrary to expectations, new forms of communication have not significantly increased the volatility of American public opinion, especially in presidential politics. Suggests that political fundamentals, such as peace, prosperity, and moderation, tend to outweigh media hype. The stability in public opinion following the Lewinsky scandal is attributed to party loyalty. Despite the scandal involving President Clinton, the Democratic Party and Clinton himself faced minimal political damage because most Americans prioritized broader issues like peace, prosperity, and moderation over Clinton's personal shortcomings. The argument underscores the enduring significance of party loyalty and the impact of fundamental political considerations on public opinion and political outcomes.

Achen and Bartels, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government

Explores the group theory of politics, emphasizing the powerful tendency of individuals to form groups and the significant role of emotion over reason in guiding group activities. It asserts that people are naturally inclined to be group-oriented, and their thought processes are deeply influenced by cultural conditioning. Various aspects of life, including religion, nationality, gender roles, scientific ideas, partisan loyalties, and cultural preferences, are taught by family, culture, and subcultures. Suggests that many individuals lack direct experience with the complexities of politics and often derive their views from the groups to which they belong. Social pressures and the influence of those around them make it challenging for people to hold views divergent from their group's perspective. The mention of the Solomon Asch Experiment illustrates the conformity observed in group settings, where individuals may knowingly provide incorrect answers to align with the group, demonstrating the powerful impact of social dynamics on individual behavior and perception.

Kalmoe and Mason, "Radical American Partisanship"

Explores the link between polarization and political violence, revealing that a majority of Americans do not outright reject partisan violence. It delves into historical, cross-national, and social-psychological factors contributing to radical mass partisanship. Studies conducted within the chapter assess the degree of radicalism among American partisans, with results indicating higher levels of partisan hostility and openness to violence than previously projected. There is concern about the potential for mass partisanship to escalate into violence, as 10-15% of partisans endorse threats of violence against their opponents. Additionally, identifies moral disengagement as a factor corresponding to violent views, particularly among individuals with interpersonal aggression tendencies.

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, Everybody Lies

Highlights the idea that humans possess innate data science skills, constantly spotting patterns and predicting outcomes in daily life. However, the reading cautions against relying solely on intuition or personal experiences, emphasizing that human judgments are often skewed by a fascination with dramatic events and a tendency to overestimate their prevalence. The importance of data science lies in its ability to provide a more accurate understanding of the world, compensating for human biases and misconceptions.

Sean Trende, The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited

In the analyzed demographic shift, there was a notable drop in white voters, with 5 million fewer in 2012 than in 2008. The missing voters were predominantly downscale, Northern, and rural whites. The decline included a segment known as the "Perot coalition," comprising blue-collar, secular, rural voters. These individuals were disenchanted by Bill Clinton's liberalism and George H.W. Bush's elitism. Despite the drop in white voters, it is suggested that this demographic change likely did not have a decisive impact on Mitt Romney's election outcome.

Ian Haney López, Dog Whistle Politics: How Coded Racial Appeals Have Reinvented Racism and Wrecked the Middle Class.

In the examined text, the author asserts that Republicans have historically employed racial strategies, notably the Southern Strategy (alienated minority voters by focusing on the white male vote in the South), to secure electoral victories. The GOP's demographic composition is overwhelmingly white, with little attention paid to the party's racial dynamics. The text introduces the concept of "dog whistle politics," wherein coded language operates on multiple levels: inaudible and easily denied on one level while stimulating strong reactions on another. The racial strategy is seen as undermining liberal government commitments crucial for supporting the middle class, contributing to economic inequality. Despite demographic changes, dog whistle politics remains a potent force shaping election outcomes and influencing economic policies. The book calls for increased awareness and collective action to counter the impact of dog whistle politics on both white and nonwhite voters and to protect the interests of the middle class.

Page and Gilens, Democracy in America?: What Has Gone Wrong and What We Can Do about It (Chapter 1)

It follows that our problems can be more effectively addressed if we achieve more democracy, providing more equal opportunities for all citizens to shape what their government does and for policies that better address the needs of all Americans. Megadonors from both parties tend to agree in opposing certain policies that Americans favor. These include important policies related to government budgets, international trade, social welfare spending, economic regulation, and taxes. In 2012, one-tenth of one percent of Americans provided nearly half the money in federal elections. Public opinion is generally deliberative and reflects the best available information and the values and interests of the citizenry. It does so because individuals form their opinions through a collective social process that brings deliberation and information to bear on the issues of the day. Public opinion sometimes does not reflect the best available information because individuals' errors don't always cancel out (e.g., fake news and misinformation). The bleak alternatives to democracy raise the question: Who should rule if the people do not? Citizens are not perfect guardians of their own values and interests, but they are pretty good guardians, and they are the best we are likely to find.

Tesler, "Post-Racial or Most-Racial?: Race and Politics in the Obama Era"

Modern racism differs from old-fashioned racism (OFR) by not endorsing notions of black biological or social inferiority. Instead, it is characterized by a moral sentiment that perceives blacks as violating traditional American values like individualism, self-reliance, the work ethic, obedience, and discipline. This form of racism views racial inferiority as cultural rather than biological, associating it with a perceived "tangle of pathology" in black neighborhoods. The concept of "Symbolic Racism" captures this phenomenon, where implicit biases against African Americans are prevalent in American society. Racial resentment is identified as a focal construct for understanding the role of racial attitudes in contemporary American politics. The study suggests that while Obama's presidency did not reduce white racial prejudice, it heightened the importance of racial attitudes in shaping presidential vote choices.

Burns and Kinder, Categorical Politics

Partisan alignment of men and women on gender issues is not as clear-cut as the alignment of Blacks and Whites on racial issues. The differences between men and women in terms of policy preferences related to gender are described as small, while the differences between Blacks and Whites on policies related to race are portrayed as significant. These differences are attributed to social organization. Women are seen as more disconnected from their own gender, acquiring interests and values in common with men with whom they share their lives. Group identity is discussed in two main varieties: "common fate," where individuals believe their life chances are intertwined with their group, and emotional interdependence, where individuals feel close to their group and experience emotions based on group outcomes. African Americans are noted to be more likely to identify with their race than women are with their gender. The separation among African Americans is seen as fostering solidarity, while integration among women is perceived to impair solidarity. The resistance to change in gender relations is expressed through beliefs aimed at maintaining the status quo and keeping women in traditional roles. A prominent form of racial stereotyping mentioned is the belief that Blacks fail to take advantage of opportunities offered to them. Opposition to affirmative action, framed in terms of undeserved advantages for Blacks, is noted to evoke powerful emotional responses among Whites.

Green, Palmquist, Schickler, Partisan Hearts and Minds

Race is a significant predictor of electoral choices, with its impact mediated by partisan affiliation. Despite changes in political parties, partisan groups remain crucial for social identity. Once individuals affiliate with a party in early adulthood, this affiliation tends to persist, drawing an analogy to the enduring nature of religious identity. Partisan changes among adults are often unrelated to unfolding political and economic events. Stereotypes associated with partisan groups are resistant to disruption by political events. The general public is inattentive to politics, and partisans tend to deflect information inconsistent with their party attachments.

Tokeshi, Campaigning While Black

Regression results indicate that racial priming occurred in the 2013 New Jersey U.S. Senate election. The analysis involved regressing racial resentment on demographic variables such as education, age, and sex, focusing on white New Jersey respondents in 2014. Estimated the relationship between racial resentment and Republican vote intention while controlling for partisanship. Suggests that racial attitudes, as measured by racial resentment, were a significant factor influencing voting behavior in the stated election, independent of other demographic characteristics and party affiliation.

Hetherington and Weiler, Prius or Pickup? How the Answers to Four Simple Questions Explain America's Great Divide

Suggests that individuals from different political backgrounds experience the world in fundamentally different ways. The concept of biopolitics is introduced, indicating that political beliefs are wired into people's physiology. Liberals and conservatives, on average, respond differently to the same experiences, with conservatives being more attuned to danger and expressing more negative feelings toward individuals from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds. The divisive nature of political matters is proposed to have deep roots in our physiology and may operate beyond conscious control. Two distinct worldviews are identified: "fixed" and "fluid." Those with a fixed worldview are more fearful of potential dangers, leading them to support hierarchical social structures. In contrast, those with a fluid worldview are less likely to perceive the world as dangerous and endorse social structures that allow individuals to find their own way. The passage notes that individuals with fixed worldviews tend to be mostly conservative, while those with fluid worldviews are mostly liberal, with most people falling somewhere in the middle.

Sides, Tesler, Vavreck, Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America

The 2016 election outcome was influenced by three key factors: the state of the economy, voters' evaluations of Barack Obama, and party identification. Clinton's victory was predicted by the state of the economy and Obama's evaluation. Party identification induced loyalty among Democrats and Republicans, helping Trump avoid a predicted blowout. White voters shifted based on education levels, with Trump winning among those without college degrees. Identity-related attitudes were more crucial than economic attitudes, especially racial issues and immigration. These factors explained the white voter divide comprehensively. Increased salience on race and immigration favored Trump, and partisanship strongly shaped the outcomes. Despite differences between Obama/Romney and Clinton/Trump, most voters picked their party's candidate (83% consistent partisans). Campaigns emphasizing identity-inflected partisan issues made candidates appear farther apart, activating voters' attitudes as decision-making criteria. This activation benefited Trump, as many Obama voters had views closer to Trump's than Obama's or Clinton's, especially in battleground states. Clinton had no greater advantage over Trump with the Latino vote than Obama had over Romney.

Emily Bazelon, "The First Amendment in the Age of Disinformation"

The article discusses various aspects of the challenges faced by the United States in the realms of disinformation, free speech, and democratic values. Key points include Facebook executive Joel Kaplan's Republican ties, concerns about the enforcement of Facebook's misinformation policy and preferential treatment for conservative accounts, and the departure of employees raising alarms about the company's practices. The text explores the evolving landscape of free speech, cancel culture, and differing approaches in Europe. It delves into the information crisis in the U.S., exacerbated by the spread of viral disinformation, particularly in the context of the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article highlights the impact of disinformation on public confidence, with a focus on a discredited narrative suggesting a Democratic coup gaining traction in online communities. Scholars' concerns about the efficacy of traditional First Amendment protections are discussed, especially in the face of deliberate misinformation campaigns. The article suggests a potential need to rethink free speech principles and explores international perspectives on speech regulation. The historical context of legal challenges to free speech, including controversial Supreme Court decisions, is examined. The text also touches on the influence of media ownership policies, the rise of social media platforms as gatekeepers, and challenges related to content moderation. In conclusion, the article emphasizes the interconnected issues of disinformation, free speech, and democratic values, urging a reevaluation of current approaches to address the harm caused by misinformation and extremist speech.

Marcela Valdes, "27 Million Potential Hispanic Votes. But What Will They Really Add Up To?"

The article provides a comprehensive exploration of the challenges and intricacies associated with mobilizing Latino voters, particularly in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. It delves into historical efforts, with a focus on Hillary Clinton's campaign, shedding light on the persistently low voter turnout among Latinos compared to other demographic groups. The potential impact of Donald Trump's controversial policies on Latino voter engagement is discussed, acknowledging the complexities involved in achieving substantial turnout. Demographic factors such as age, income, and education are examined, revealing that older, wealthier, and more educated Latinos are more likely to vote. The article identifies cultural and educational barriers, emphasizing the decline in civics education and the need for ongoing political socialization. The diverse identity of Latinos is explored, challenging the notion of a unified political force under the term "Hispanic." Additionally, the importance of volunteer mobilization, exemplified by individuals like Keisy Chavez, is highlighted as crucial for engaging and registering Latino voters. In summary, the article provides a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted issues contributing to the complexities of Latino voter turnout efforts.

White and Laird, Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior

The authors propose a theoretical framework to understand the unity of black Americans in supporting the Democratic Party, highlighting the social norms and accountability that shape their political behavior, termed "racialized social constraint in politics." The study aims to elucidate how black Americans navigate individual incentives while maintaining group unity in political choices. They show that when expressing party preferences in the presence of other blacks, even strangers, there is an increased inclination among blacks to support Democratic candidates and overstate their involvement in campaign activities. The authors conduct lab-in-the-field experiments, focusing on contributions to Barack Obama's 2012 campaign, to experimentally demonstrate the impact of racialized social constraint on blacks' willingness to engage in political action, even when it involves individual costs. The chapter provides causal evidence supporting the role of racialized social constraint in shaping black Americans' political behavior. It demonstrates the ability of racialized social pressure to inspire political activity in support of the Democratic Party. The findings also highlight the limits of such pressure in encouraging defection from established group norms.

Markus Prior, Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality inPolitical Involvement and Polarizes Elections

The central claim throughout this book is that the media environment—the types of media to which people have access—explains many 'systematic variations in the amount of free information received.' Floating voters are individuals whose decisions are not noticeably influenced by a stable liberal or conservative ideology or a strong adherence to one party. They seldom approach an election with a sense of whom to vote for and don't always vote for the same party. The intensity of a campaign and the amount of political information that floating voters encounter affect their tendency to vote at all. 'High-stimulus' elections prompt less interested voters to cast a vote, while only the most interested vote in low-stimulus elections. 'Low-information rationality' refers to Popkin's idea that the media environment is inefficient enough to provide political cues even to citizens who are not motivated to actively seek any. A higher percentage of Americans watched the news when the choice on their television was low. Television choice and electoral volatility seem to go hand in hand. Choice is the primary feature of cable television that increased the efficiency of the media environment over what it was in the broadcast era. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. The two conditions were designed to resemble the choices people have in the broadcast and cable environment, respectively. Approximating the broadcast environment, the low-choice condition gave respondents only five response options: ABC, NBC, CBS, or turn it off. Only 35% of high-choice respondents would watch broadcast news versus 80% in the low-choice condition. Rather than purposefully turning on the set to watch a particular program, people's decision to watch television and their subsequent selection of a program are largely independent."

Banaji and Greenwald, Blindspot: Hidden Biases of Good People

The chapter explores the Implicit Association Test (IAT), a tool developed by the authors to measure implicit biases. It delves into the research findings from IAT studies, revealing the prevalence of biases related to race, gender, age, and other social categories. The authors argue that these biases can exist even in individuals who consciously reject prejudice, highlighting the unconscious nature of many biases. Furthermore, the chapter discusses the malleability of implicit biases and the potential for change through awareness and intentional effort. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing and addressing these hidden biases to promote fair and unbiased decision-making in various aspects of life. Overall, sheds light on the pervasive nature of unconscious biases and the significance of understanding and mitigating their impact on our thoughts and actions.

Schlozman, Verba, and Brady, The Unheavenly Chorus:Unequal Political Voice and the Broken Promise of American Democracy.

The excerpt discusses the empirical analysis of political voice inequalities from various perspectives. The section emphasizes the complexities of measuring political voice, considering not only the number but also the extent of individuals' involvement. The text explores how political money introduces additional challenges, given variations in donation sizes, hindering the achievement of political equality in financing campaigns and causes. The analysis also delves into the difficulty of comparing different political acts, considering factors like volunteering hours versus monetary contributions. The passage underscores the factors influencing political voice, such as motivation, resources (knowledge, skills, money, and time), and social networks. It emphasizes the central role of socio-economic status (SES) in shaping these factors, with well-educated individuals more likely to possess various participatory elements. The text acknowledges the historical exclusion of certain categories from the franchise and addresses the unequal distribution of participatory factors. The conclusion reflects on the challenges of addressing inequalities of political voice through policy innovations. It acknowledges the complexities and difficulties involved in procedural reforms, emphasizing the resistance to change in a system designed to impede rapid policy shifts. Solutions: easing registration requirements, improving election administration, reconsidering rules on lobbying by non-profits, and exploring options like citizen vouchers for campaign donations.

Kuo, Malhotra, and Mo, Social Exclusion and Political Identity: The Case of Asian American Partisanship

The passage suggests that individual exclusion based on racial or ethnic group membership can impact one's political identity. The text specifically points to findings related to Asian Americans, noting that their overwhelming tendency to identify as Democrats can be partly explained by experiences of exclusion, providing support for an identity-oriented explanation of partisanship in American electoral politics. In essence, the exclusion at the individual level due to racial or ethnic factors can influence political affiliations and identity. In the experiment, Asian participants assigned to the treatment condition were made to feel like foreigners in their own country through racial microagressions.

Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (I)

The reading challenges the traditional economic perspective by noting that economic theorists often treat decisions as if they are made by rational minds. It introduces economic analysis as a two-step process: first, discovering the goals a decision-maker is pursuing, and second, analyzing which means are most reasonable in attaining those goals with minimal use of scarce resources. The text clarifies that the term "rational" is specifically applied to the means chosen by an agent, not the ends. It defines rationality in the context of processes of action, emphasizing that it pertains to the decision-making process itself rather than the desired outcomes or their success.

Iyengar and Kinder, News That Matters

The reading emphasizes the importance of control in true experiments, stating that control is essential for an experiment to be considered genuine. It distinguishes between merely observing a correspondence between television news coverage and viewers' beliefs and establishing a causal relationship. The text underscores the significance of creating treatment and control conditions in experiments. This approach enables the isolation of specific causal variables, allowing for a more precise understanding of how television influences its audience.

Heather McGhee, The Sum of Us: Why Racism Costs Us and How We Can Prosper Together

The reading highlights a correlation between high levels of resentment among white individuals towards Black people and an increased likelihood of opposing government spending in a general sense. It suggests that government has become racialized in the narrative of the country, with racial sentiments influencing attitudes toward government actions. The text goes on to explain that racism can negatively impact non-wealthy white Americans in two ways. Firstly, it diminishes their support for government interventions that could potentially benefit them economically due to a fear that such measures might also assist racialized groups perceived as "undeserving." Healthcare hypocrisy, draining money from public colleges

Gerber, Green, and Larimer, "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment."

The study investigates voter turnout theories, particularly those rooted in rational self-interest, and asserts that they often fail to predict significant turnout unless they consider the utility citizens derive from fulfilling their civic duty. The study distinguishes between intrinsic satisfaction from adhering to a norm and extrinsic incentives to comply. Through a large-scale field experiment involving several hundred thousand registered voters, the researchers used various mailings to examine the effects of priming intrinsic motives and applying different levels of extrinsic pressure. The findings reveal that higher turnout occurred among individuals who received mailings promising to publicize their voting behavior to their household or neighbors. This highlights the profound impact of social pressure as an inducement to political participation. The researchers suggest that the activation and enforcement of social norms, particularly through surveillance, can significantly influence voter behavior. The study underscores the potential importance of social pressure in explaining long-term declines in voter turnout and posits that understanding the components of the calculus of voting requires considering the activation and enforcement of social norms. It raises questions about the reversibility of processes contributing to declining voter turnout and suggests that a research program of experimental interventions is needed to explore the persistence and spread of the observed effects over time and within social networks.

Haynes, Merolla, and Ramakrishnan, Framing Immigrants: News Coverage, Public Opinion, and Policy

The text discusses the highly debated issue of immigration in the United States, particularly focusing on the summer of 2012 when the Supreme Court was set to rule on the constitutionality of Arizona's SB1070 law. Proponents and opponents framed their arguments differently, with Democrats denouncing the law as unconstitutional and racially motivated, while conservatives praised it as a necessary response to immigration challenges. The criminality frame, emphasizing immigrant criminality, played a significant role in the passage of SB1070. Around the same time, President Barack Obama introduced Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a pro-integration policy providing work permits and deportation protection for undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children. The text highlights the contrasting opinions of the public, where respondents supported Arizona's pro-deportation law and, simultaneously, backed President Obama's deportation relief program. The contradictory attitudes are attributed to the framing of survey questions. The question about Arizona's law emphasizes enforcement context, while Obama's policy question invokes a different image and context, mentioning children obtaining work permits. The book's main argument is that exposure to different frames on immigration, especially through media, influences public opinions on specific policies affecting the undocumented population. The authors emphasize the importance of understanding public opinion on immigration through the lens of framing, studying both the supply of media frames and their effects on public opinion.

Zaller, A Theory of Media Politics

The text explores the transition from 19th-century party politics to modern media politics, highlighting the shift from partisan newspapers to the contemporary challenge for politicians to navigate the media landscape. It introduces the concept of rational ignorance, emphasizing citizens' tendency to minimize political involvement due to the limited impact of individual votes. The text suggests that citizens prefer political news about government actions affecting them and theorizes their preference for conflict in news for entertainment. The author discusses the goals of elite journalists, emphasizing their desire for career success and the challenge of balancing sophisticated news with mass audience appeal. The tension between journalists, citizens, and politicians is underscored, leading to the identification of three recurring behavioral rules in media politics. These rules, such as the Rule of the Market and Rule of Anticipated Importance, shape conflicts and influence the quality of political news coverage. Subsequent chapters aim to test these rules and assess their impact on democracy.

Sean Trende, Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform?

The text warns about a 3% increase in African American electoral share for the 2016 election and anticipates that this surge won't be sustained. The Democratic Partisan Voting Index (PVI) increases in Nevada as multiculturalism grows, whereas West Virginia sees a significant drop. Nineteen states shift towards Democrats, while 25 move towards Republicans, ultimately favoring the GOP. Despite being dubbed the "party of white people" after the 2012 election, the GOP's electoral perspective suggests it's not necessarily disadvantageous, given the long-term presence of non-Hispanic white voters in the country.

Yglesias, "The Great Awokening"

This article discusses a significant shift in American politics, noting that white liberals have moved to the left on issues of race and racism, surpassing even the typical black voter. The Awokening began around the 2014 protests in Ferguson, Missouri, and has since led to a rapid change in the attitudes of white Democrats, who now express higher levels of concern about racial inequality and discrimination. The shift is attributed to events like the Ferguson protests, as well as cues from Democratic elites signaling a need to take systemic racism concerns more seriously. The article highlights that white liberals' views on race have moved to the left of black and Latino opinions, and this shift has affected the Democratic Party platform. It discusses changes in attitudes toward immigration, criminal justice, and even reparations, pointing out that white liberals are driving a rapid transformation in the political space Democrats operate within. The Awokening is seen as having electoral consequences, contributing to the racial polarization of the electorate. While it acknowledges that the increased moral fervor may have some Democrats supporting Trump, it also notes that the sustained phenomenon is forcing the Democratic Party to confront the legacy of America's racial caste system. The article concludes by suggesting that the next Democratic president will have to navigate this changed landscape.

Adam Thal, "The Desire for Social Status and Economic Conservativism among AffluentAmericans." American Political Science Review."

This article explores the connection between affluent Americans' pursuit of social status and their tendency to support conservative economic policies that contribute to increasing inequality. Drawing on Thorstein Veblen's Theory of the Leisure Class, the author argues that the desire for social status is a significant yet overlooked factor influencing the political behavior of affluent individuals. The study employs a new survey scale to measure the correlation between the desire for social status and support for conservative economic policies among affluent Americans. Additionally, experimental evidence on social media platforms like Facebook suggests that exposure to others' economic success prompts affluent individuals to become more economically conservative. The findings highlight the role of social status in shaping the political choices of affluent Americans, contributing to a better understanding of the origins of rising economic inequality in the United States.

Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (II)

argues that for a two-party democracy to function effectively, there needs to be a substantial ideological consensus among its citizens. In such a system, the parties tend to converge on similar platforms. In contrast, multi-party systems aim to maintain ideological distinctions. The stability of the political system is seen as dependent on the distribution of ideologies among the citizenry. If this distribution remains constant, the system tends toward equilibrium with a stable number of parties and fixed ideological positions. Furthermore, the passage suggests that significant changes in the distribution of ideological views can lead to the successful launch of new parties. In a two-party system, it is considered rational for each party to encourage voters to be irrational by keeping their platforms vague and ambiguous. This perspective highlights the strategic decisions and dynamics associated with different party systems and the role of ideological consensus in their stability. Any party formed in the center will eventually move toward one extreme or the other since there are so few moderate voters.

Page and Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences

asserts that the American public holds real and stable opinions about public policy that evolve reasonably in response to changing circumstances and new information. emphasizes the public's capability of holding "sensible opinions" and underscores the importance of educating the public with accurate political information while respecting their wishes. Despite variations in survey responses, the reading suggests that most Americans have underlying attitudes that are stable and genuine. It acknowledges the difficulty in capturing these attitudes through one-shot survey questions but argues that the typical citizen may have multiple real policy preferences. The reading contends that surveys effectively measure collective public opinion through a statistical aggregation process, where the expressed opinions of many individuals are combined into a collective whole. It notes that random deviations tend to cancel out over a large sample. Furthermore, conflict makes American voters more politically attuned. An example is provided wherein the public's ability to distinguish friend from foe in the situation in Nicaragua increased over time as the issue gained more press attention. Overall, the reading emphasizes the stability and sensibility of public opinions, suggesting that despite variations, the public's underlying attitudes remain consistent and genuine.

Achens and Bartels, Democracy for Realists

authors challenge the folk theory that citizens can acquire sufficient knowledge to translate their moral commitments into well-informed political preferences. They illustrate this point through examples like the Iraq War, where Republicans (GWB was president at the time) tended to believe in Iraq's involvement in 9/11 and weapons of mass destruction, while Democrats did not. The authors emphasize that partisans often use interpretations of facts to rationalize their existing opinions rather than revising them rationally, thereby minimizing cognitive dissonance. Discuss a tendency toward partisan consistency in political beliefs, noting that party identification significantly influences the perceptions of even the most politically informed citizens more than those who are relatively less informed. They provide an example related to the budget deficit, where Republicans may refuse to acknowledge a decrease in the deficit under Clinton, illustrating how partisanship shapes people's worldviews, including their beliefs on specific issues, often relying on folk wisdom and partisan suppositions. The reading underscores the influence of party identification on individuals' political perceptions and beliefs, suggesting that partisanship plays a profound role in shaping political worldviews.

Achen and Bartels, Do Sanders Supporters Favor His Policies?

authors explore whether supporters of Bernie Sanders genuinely favor his policy positions. They find that the level of support for Sanders' policies is influenced by respondents' prior preferences rather than a direct match with Sanders' positions. Additionally, the study reveals that even when presented with policy proposals labeled as Sanders', respondents' preferences are more aligned with their initial predispositions rather than a specific association with Sanders himself. The authors emphasize the importance of understanding the role of prior preferences in shaping policy attitudes, shedding light on the complexity of voter decision-making and the nuanced relationship between candidates and their supporters' policy preferences.

Morris Fiorina Retrospective Voting in American National Elections

citizens can assess the impact of the incumbent administration's policies on their lives without needing detailed knowledge of economic or foreign policies. The key criterion for citizens in evaluating incumbent performance is the changes in their own welfare. retrospective voting: citizens make electoral decisions based on an assessment of past performance rather than signaling a particular direction for society's future. Overall, suggests that citizens are capable of making informed judgments by considering tangible outcomes and experiences rather than requiring in-depth policy knowledge.

Charles Cameron, Political Analysis Toolkit

classic collective action problem: a situation in which several actors have a common goal that would justify acting together collectively, but the individual actors face incentives that undermine their effort, particularly in tandem with others (rational individuals, irrational society). Mothers of east LA example (pros and cons of organizing)

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, "Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are"

discusses the limitations of traditional data sources in understanding human behavior. Highlights that people tend to be less honest in conventional data collection methods, leading to incomplete or biased insights, especially regarding sensitive topics like prejudice. Introduces the idea that the internet, and specifically the analysis of big data derived from online activities, provides a more candid and unfiltered perspective on individuals' thoughts and behaviors. This becomes crucial in the context of prejudice, as online searches and interactions can reveal more genuine expressions of biases that individuals might not openly admit in traditional surveys or interviews. The author implies that the analysis of internet data can expose hidden biases, offering a more accurate reflection of societal attitudes. This introduces a central theme of the book, where big data becomes a tool for uncovering and understanding the true nature of human beliefs and behaviors, particularly in areas as complex and sensitive as prejudice.

Charles Wheelan, Naked Statistics:

discusses the nature of polls as inferences about the opinions of a larger population based on a sample's views. It highlights the idea that being less specific often leads to greater confidence in predictions. The text emphasizes the statistical concept that 99.7% of the time, a sample proportion will be within three standard deviations of the true population proportion. The challenges in dealing with data include issues such as self-selection, selection bias, and framing effects. An example is given where American support for the death penalty changes when presented with an alternative, illustrating the impact of framing on public opinion. The reading acknowledges the complexity of capturing the full depth of public opinion on complex issues and identifies two primary challenges in polling: obtaining a proper and representative sample and eliciting information in a way that accurately reflects the group members' beliefs.

Bartels, Here's how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory

exposure to positive stimuli significantly increases positive thoughts about illegal immigration compared to negative stimuli. Additionally, it mentions various factors that influence voter behavior, including the location of voting, the order of candidates on the ballot, the appearance of candidates, trait attributions, and the impact of symbols or music in campaign videos. In summary, the reading suggests that stimuli and contextual factors play a substantial role in shaping attitudes and behaviors related to immigration and voter decision-making.

Clawson and Oxley, Public Opinion: Democratic Ideals, Democratic Practice

findings confirm the assumptions of elite democrats that they are better suited to govern, as they exhibit higher levels of ideological thinking and consistency compared to the general public. authors discuss Converse's conclusions about the ideological thinking of political elites and the public. Converse found that political elites are more likely than citizens to organize the political world along a liberal-conservative continuum. However, he observed that a significant portion of the public, constituting the majority, does not engage in ideological thinking about political parties and candidates. Specifically, Group Interest citizens made up 42 percent of respondents, and ideologues were around 10 percent. Low knowledge of ideology and infrequent ideological reasoning, according to Converse, is seen by some as evidence that the public may not be capable of democratic citizenship. Converse's findings indicate that belief constraint, or the consistency of attitudes across various issues, is higher among political elites than among the public. Overall, the public, according to Converse, does not think about political parties and candidates ideologically. Recognition and correct use of terms like liberal and conservative are rare, constraint on various issues is low, and attitude consistency over time is also low.

Jennifer Hochschild, What's Fair? American Beliefs about Distributive Justice

highlights the influence of Anglo-American liberal political theory on ordinary people's distributive judgments. The study indicates that concepts such as economic fairness, the natural order, capitalism, and individualism align with liberal tenets, shaping people's perspectives on distributive justice. The reading suggests that individuals' participation in the history of ideas, particularly concerning economic concepts, may influence their views on wealth redistribution. Contends that the poor may be prevented from seeking such redistribution due to their understanding of the economy influenced by political ideology. emphasizes that distinctions that initially reveal a lack of constraint in people's judgments actually indicate the strength of political ideology in shaping Americans' normative judgments regarding distributive justice. Overall, the work explores the pervasive influence of liberal political theory on public perceptions of economic fairness and justice.

Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational

humans inherently assess things in their surroundings in relation to others, a tendency that is ingrained and constant. Identifies relativity as a challenge, indicating that people tend to evaluate their decisions in a relative manner, comparing them to the immediate alternatives that are locally available. Highlights the pervasive nature of assessing things in a relative context, shaping the way individuals perceive and make decisions based on the options in their immediate environment.

Samuel L. Popkin, The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns

introduces the concept of the reasoning voter, asserting that voters engage in practical thinking about parties, candidates, and issues. He coins the term "low-information rationality," commonly known as "gut" reasoning, to describe the practical thinking people employ in political matters. Highlights that voters often use shortcuts to acquire and assess information, gaining political knowledge through everyday interactions with government and policies. When direct information is challenging to obtain, individuals resort to proxies, such as a candidate's past political positions or personal demographic characteristics, to estimate their future positions. The author emphasizes the inevitability of using shortcuts in decision-making, asserting that it is an inescapable fact of life. Furthermore, he suggests that education doesn't fundamentally alter how individuals think. Popkin addresses the role of framing in shaping attitudes, stating that framing is an integral part of life, and campaigns become crucial in a democracy as long as framing remains inevitable. The reading underscores the practical, shortcut-based nature of voters' decision-making processes and the importance of understanding these dynamics in the context of political communication and persuasion.

Page and Gilens, Democracy in America?: What Has Gone Wrong and What We Can Do about It (Chapter 9)

lessons from the past offer common threads in social movements that can inform today's efforts to democratize politics. The focus should be on serious grievances that violate shared values (e.g., political equality). Link reforms to day-to-day realities; to form the basis of a social movement, the damaging results of our dysfunctional, money-dominated political system need to be better understood by more people. They should be clearly linked to economic and social harms in people's daily lives. Develop and publish concrete reform ideas; active volunteers are essential; form alliances with diverse organizations and recruit affluent Americans; adopt diverse strategies and tactics; pursue state and local reforms; mobilize mass-membership organizations; coordinate action; and work with and within political parties; don't ignore elections; consider a third party cautiously; be patient and persistent, and be careful what you wish for

Bartels, Democracy with Attitudes

the author argues that citizens possess "meaningful beliefs," but these beliefs are not comprehensive or coherent enough to function as a satisfactory foundation for democratic theory, particularly as conventionally understood. He asserts that citizens have attitudes but lack fully formed preferences. attitudes are context-dependent, indicating that they can be influenced by framing effects (differences in responses caused by prompting consideration of additional aspects of an issue that might otherwise be ignored). Provides examples involving the importance of issues such as myeloma and coral reefs in Australia, where the framing of one issue significantly alters the perceived importance of the other. The discussion extends to the norm of reciprocity, exemplified by contrasting reactions to communist news reporters in the U.S. versus American news reporters in Russia. Bartels emphasizes that seemingly similar questions can yield markedly different results in terms of public opinion. The author recognizes the context dependence of preferences as an unavoidable consequence of basic cognitive and evaluative processes, attributing it to inherent aspects of human decision-making rather than a flaw in the procedures used.

Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow:

two cognitive systems: System 1, which operates automatically and quickly without conscious effort, and System 2, which engages in effortful mental activities requiring attention. System 1 relies on innate skills, learned associations, and involuntary operations, and it has biases that lead to systematic errors in specific circumstances. When uncertain, System 1 tends to make bets guided by experience, with recent events and the current context carrying the most weight in interpretation. On the other hand, System 2 is responsible for allocating attention to complex computations and is associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration. It operates in situations of uncertainty and doubt, playing a role in skepticism and disbelief. The reading highlights that System 1 tends to be gullible and biased, while System 2 is in charge of doubting and unbelieving. The text also touches upon confirmatory bias, where people seek data compatible with their existing beliefs, and introduces the halo effect, wherein impressions of a person can influence opinions about unrelated aspects. The halo effect increases the weight of first impressions in decision-making processes.