Russia Case Study - AP Gov
Current Issues: The "Great Game"
-Although the Russian Revolution in 1917 and the decline of the British Empire after WWII limited the conflict between these two powers, the notion of a contest between superpowers for this region never really came to an end -Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 led to the American arming of anti-Soviet guerillas and the rise of Al Qaeda -the break up of the USSR fostered conflicts across newly independent states in the Caucasus and Central Asia -the constant actor remains Russia, which since 1991 has sought to regain or retain influence over its lost republics (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan) -first, they have had little success in democratization since 1991, and power has remained directly in the hands of the Soviet-era leaders -second, many of them are ethnically diverse, have weak national identities, and have faced serious violent conflict as a result -now other, new players are entering the game (CHINA) -India, too, is showing growing involvement in the region, though at a much lower level than China -India and Pakistan have a longstanding rivalry over Afghanistan, and India has promoted the construction of a network of roads, railways, and pipelines linking Central Asia to its own markets and growing energy needs -India has spoken of this linkage as the "New Silk Road" -one of the first statements of Putin's new administration articulated Russia's ambitions in the struggle over Central Asia -Putin called for a "Eurasian union" that would remove all barriers to trade, capital, and labor movements among its members -the EEU will formally come into force in 2015, with Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia as its charter members -implications of Russian-led integration 1. not clear that even if the EEU expands and deepens, it will have the kind of power we might expect -many Central Asian states are concerned about the rapid expansion of China into the region -Russia's economy may mean that states in the region see Russian influence through the EEU as less of a threat, and rather as a bulwark against Chinese encroachment
Political Conflict and Competition: The Party System and Elections
-Russia has yet to see the institutionalization of political parties with clear ideologies and political platforms, authoritarian or democratic -for most of the past 20 years, multiple parties have risen and disappeared between elections, for a number of reasons -the relative weakness of ideology among the public contributes to some extent -a second factor is the power of the presidency -the presidency has contributed to the creation of parties that largely serve one individual's presidential ambitions -following the 2007 Duma elections, the other 3 parties in parliament combined held less than a third of the total seats (Communist Party, Just Russia, Liberal-Democratic Party) -however, the 2011 Duma elections, the 3 parties above captured nearly half of the seats
The Party of Power in Russia
-although so-called parties of power have since 1991 consistently represented the largest segment of parties in the Duma, they cannot be described in ideological terms -Russia's parties of power can be defined as those parties created by political elites to support those elites' political aspirations -typically, these parties are highly personalized, lack specific ideologies or clear organizational qualities, and have been created by political elites during or following their time in office -in 2001, Fatherland All-Russia and Unity were merged to back Putin's presidency to form United Russia -United Russia swept the 2003 elections and has won a majority of seats since -United Russia boasts a cult of personality around Putin, a youth wing that advances the cause of the party and harasses its opponents, and party membership as a means for individual access to important jobs in the state and economy -the party has develop strong corporatist tendencies -United Russia's campaign platforms have emphasized stability and conservatism, economic development, and the restoration of the country as a "great power" in international politics -the media, largely in the hands of the state, gave overwhelming support to United Russia -observers concluded that the elections were not fair, did not meet basic standards for democratic procedures, and have become only more fraudulent over time
contd.
-as the upper house, the Federation Council holds even less power than the Duma -the Federation Council primarily serves to represent local interests and act as a guarantor of the constitution -the body represents all of the 85 federal administrative units, and each unit has 2 representatives -since 2002, one representative has been selected by the governor of each region and another by the regional legislature -powers include the ability to approve bills that deal with certain issues, including taxation and the budget -if the Federation Council rejects legislation, the two houses compromise to approve it, or the Duma may override the upper house with a two-thirds vote -the Federation Council also has the ability to impeach the president as well as to approve or reject presidential appointments to the Constitutional Court, declarations of war and martial law, and international treaties -in 2014, the Federation Council passed legislation that, if enacted, would allow the president to appoint up to 10% of council members -this system would presumably create more presidential power over the legislature, particularly by limiting its ability to impeach the president (2/3rd vote required)
Communist and Leftist Parties
-before the rise of United Russia, the strongest and most institutionalized party was the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) -in the 1995 elections, the CPRF reached its peak , becoming the largest single party in the Duma and raising fear among many that the country would return to Communist rule -since, its vote share has declined to less than 15% (still remains second largest party in the Duma) -the CPRF remains close to its Communist ideology and rejects Western capitalism and globalization -also embraces the Stalinist period and has called for the return of the country to Stalinist ideals -criticizes Putin, put does not do so extremely in attempt to preserve their own party -CPRF is supported by Putin as a way to maintain semblance of political diversity and to coopt opposition forces -however, as the second-largest party, it enjoys protest votes from those opposed to United Russia, particularly those who have suffered from the economic changes -Just Russia is a new party emerging from the leftist camp -defines itself as a social-democratic party along European lines -its platform emphasizes social justice and reducing inequality, and in general its ideological profile is perhaps clearer than any other party -earns around 13% of the vote
Civil Society
-civil society in Russia developed in fits and starts -before the 1917 Russian Revolution, civil society was weak, constrained by authoritarianism, feudalism, and low economic development -corporatist institutions were created to link the people to the party, through the workplace, media, culture, and leisure -few remnants of independent organized life (religion) were brought under tight control -1980s, glasnost allowed for the reboot of civil society -first independent group = fan club of a Moscow soccer team in 1987 -1991, civil society grew dramatically -during the Putin administration, civil society came under state pressure and control, especially groups openly criticizing the government -tools to control civil society include tax code, process of registering with authorities, police harassment/arrest -2006, government passed its harshest measures on NGOs, requiring all of them to be approved by the government, restricting their funding from foreign services, and making them subject to regular inspections and pre-approval for any activity -2011, Putin enacts a law for any agency receiving foreign funding to be registered as "foreign agents" allowing for a high degree of state oversight and control and the possibility of fines and arrest for failing to follow state regulations -although Soviet-imposed atheism seriously weakened the role of religion, in recent years Orthodox Christianity has begun to reclaim a role in public life -the state has also emphasized Orthodox Christianity as core to being Russian, restricting other religions to build places of worship, publish, etc. (Islam, Jehovah's Witnesses, Mormons, etc.) -civil society has been restricted in Russia not just through direct government control but also through the means of expressing itself, specifically the media -powerful segments of the media (TV, radio) remained in the hands of the state or came under the control of the oligarchs with ties to Yeltsin -the media came to support Putin during his consolidation of power, viewing him as the successor to Yeltsin who would preserve power to the oligarchs -Putin soon put economic pressure on the independent media -during the past decade, all of the largest private TV stations have come under direct state ownership or indirect state-controlled firms -with nationalization, the Russian media have become even less diverse and are clearly oriented toward supported those in power -the domestic media have become a consistent purveyor of conspiracy theories that tend to center around the efforts of the USA and the EU to destroy Russia -those who continue to pursue independent journalism find that their livelihoods and even their lives can be at stake -over the past decade,more than 50 journalists have been killed in Russia
Nationalist Parties
-during the 1990s, one of the most infamous aspects of the Russian party spectrum was the strength of extreme nationalism -displayed through the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia -LDPR espoused a rhetoric of nationalism, xenophobia, and anti-Semitism, calling for such things as the reconstitution of the Soviet union and exhibiting general hostility toward the West -14% of the seats were earned in 1993, then popularity took a hard hit downwards -recent elections, however, it has become the fourth-largest party in the Duma -this resurgence can be attributed in part to the LDPR's consistent support for Putin and his government: indeed, many observers suspect that the LDPR is effectively funded by the government to serve as a pseudo-opposition that can be controlled -nevertheless, the LDPR is able to tap into a strong current of Russian nationalism, especially among those lower-class individuals
Ideology and Political Culture
-ideology, like political parties, is ill-defined in Russia -since 1991, Russia has experienced a much greater diversity of ideas, but in many ways those ideas have not made a deep impact on political life -we have seen growing importance of nationalism as a central political value in Russia -in Russia, the government has actively promoted this trend by evoking nostalgia for the country's superpower status and by asserting that Russia is not truly Western but somehow different -such nationalism has been both a cause and effect of increased tensions between Russian and the international community -this attitude can also be viewed as one that does not necessarily contribute to solving the very real problems
National Identity and Citizenship
-its relative homogeneity has not helped the country avoid ethnic conflict -some of Russia's ethnic groups have developed nationalist aspirations and seek greater autonomy from central authorities, even to the point of outright independence -serious ethnic conflict have erupted in the Caucasus region where a diverse mixture of non-Slavic peoples with distinct cultures live (Islam= dominant faith) -most notable case is the Chechnya conflict, fighting between Russian military forces and Chechen rebels
The Electoral System
-just before the 1991 coup, the presidency was made a directly elected office; Yeltsin won the election and retained office when Russia became an independent country -Russians have continued to elect their president directly -candidates for president must be nominated by a party represented in the Duma -if they are independent candidates, they must collect 2 million signatures in support of their candidacy -if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two candidates compete against each other in a second round -a president can serve no more than 2 consecutive terms -the Duma has also held regular elections -between 1990-1993, these were conducted using a plurality system of single-member districts (SMDs) -Russia adopted a mixed system similar to the German and Japanese systems (half the seats in the Duma were elected through a plurality system, and the other half were selected in multimember districts (MMDs) using proportional representation (PR) -this system again was changed to consolidate political power toward pure PR -presuming a lean towards PR would allow for greater diversity in parties and ideology, political parties have not proven to be a major problem for the presidency because they are weakly institutionalized and tend to coalesce around leaders rather than ideologies -what the Putin administration found irritating, however, was that the SMD portion of the ballot allowed independent candidates (often representing regional/particular interests) to win a seat in the Duma and advance their agenda -in 2003, for example, independent candidates won nearly half of the SMD seats in the Duma -as a result, the 2007 Duma elections were held solely under PR -electoral reforms also prevented parties from forming an electoral bloc to compete as a single group to overcome the threshold -in 2016, the Duma elections returned back to the mixed system
Liberal Parties
-liberalism has made relatively few inroads into political life, and even these have decline of late -liberalism's standard bearer in Russia was the party Yabloko whose pro-Western and pro-market economy stance drew support from white-collar workers and urban residents in the major cities -a liberal political ideology is not likely to find a wide range of popular support -a large percentage of the population continues to support an active role for the state in the economy -this includes the middle class, the traditional backbones of liberal parties -finally, worsening relations between Russia and the West have also served to tarnish liberalism as a foreign ideology associated with Russian subservience -moreover, Putin has worked hard to marginalize liberal parties
Local Government
-like the Soviet Union that preceded it, Russia is a federal system with a bewildering array of more than 80 different regional bodies: 21 republics (22 including Crimea), 46 oblasts (provinces), 9 krays (territories), 4 autonomous okrugs (districts), and the 2 federal cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg -the 21 republics, for example, represent particular non-Russian ethnic groups and enjoy greater rights, such as to have their own constitution and a state language alongside Russian -some have even attempted to claim sovereignty (Chechnya, 1990s) -in contrast, many other federal bodies are much weaker (asymmetric federalism) -each of the territories, regardless of its size or power, has its own governor and local Duma -as in other areas, the Putin administration took several steps to reduce regional power and make the territories comply with national laws and legislation 1. a number of regional laws and agreements between central and local governments were changed or annulled, compelling the regions to revise their laws and agreements to bring them in accordance with the Putin administration (some were unconstitutional, others were just to reduce local power) 2.in 2000, the government created federal districts that encompass all of Russia and its constituent territories each district is headed by a presidential appointee, who serves to bring the local authorities more directly under presidential control -Putin also barred the regional governors and heads of local Dumas form serving directly in the Federation Council -in 2004, all local governors became directly appointed by the president, and their appointments were subject to confirmation by the local legislatures -however, in 2012, Medvedev restored local elections -in the 2014 local elections the pro-Putin United Russia won the overwhelming majority of seats up for contest -these frequent changes have severely curtailed federalism in Russia -many local mayors remain directly elected, and in large cities they can exercise a great deal of political clout -in 2013, Alexei Navalny ran for mayor in Moscow and won nearly 30% of the vote, subsequently arrested on charges of fraud, and he remains under house arrest -clearly, Putin and his allies realize that local authority could reemerge as a significant threat to those in power -frequent changes in the direct election offices in Russia reflects a tactic by the government to close off avenues for participation by opposition parties and actors
Foreign Relations and the World
-like the United Kingdom, Russia has struggled to deal with its position as a former superpower -Russian pride was dealt a blow when the USSR splintered and the USA emerged as an unequaled international superpower -in recent years, this situation has lead to international tension and military conflict not seen since the end of the Cold War -one factor was the eastward expansion of NATO and the EU -Russia initially cooperate with NATO to some extent, but under Putin quickly came to view it as an organization opposed to Russian interests source of tension: series of wars in former Yugoslavia in the 1990s -the expansion of NATO and the EU have made Russia feel as if its traditional sphere of influence is being chipped away -the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have also been seen by Russia as examples of the United States' willingness to depose any government it dislikes -UKRAINE CONFLICT -consistent with its role in Ukraine, as Russia's relationship with the West has sour and it has instead sought to rebuild its own sphere of influence -in 1991, it helped create the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose integrationist body that incorporated many of the former Soviet republics -Russia has used it to coordinate its relationship with a number of former Soviet republics, particularly in the Caucasus and Central Asia -Russia has also pursued the goal of more formal integration with other former USSR republics, a move that would bring them under greater Russian influence (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) -Putin called for the creation of a Eurasian Economic Union for economic and political integration -this goal has developed alongside the increased promotion of the idea that Russia has a distinct national destiny, unconnected to European or liberal cultural and political traditions -under Putin, the Russian state and government have become less engaged with Europe and other developed democracies
Political Economy
-looking to lessons of Poland and acting on the advice of Western economic advisers, Russia opted for a course of shock therapy, rapidly dismantling central planning and freeing up prices with the hope that these actions would stimulate competition and the creation of new businesses -the immediate result was a wave of hyperinflation -savings were wiped out, the economy sank into recession, and tensions between Yeltsin and parliament deepened -during the late 1990s, Russian began the process of privatization, which was equally problematic -in many cases, however, businesses were not sold off to a large number of shareholders but became subject to insider privatization which enabled the former directors of these firms to acquire the largest number of shares -therefore, wealth was not dispersed but was concentrated in the hands of those who had strong economic and political connections -a small number of new businessmen quickly emerged from various ranks in society to add on to the nomenklatura -this group of businessmen, who came to be known as the oligarchs, were noted for their control of large amounts of the Russian economy, their close ties to Yeltsin, and the accusations of corruption surrounding their rise to power -1996, the government instituted the loan-for-shares program to borrow funds from the oligarchs in return for shares in those businesses that had not yet been sold off by the state (lucrative natural resources industry & the energy sector) -Russia's ongoing economic problems are not simply the result of the economic reform policies of the 1990s -many of these problems are a function and legacy of a Soviet order -the government faced high rates of poverty, a great deal of inequality, the disproportionate power of the oligarchs, widespread corruption and organized crime, and an inefficient state -one of Putin's first steps was to act against the oligarchs and divest them of power -a number of the most prominent oligarchs left the country to avoid imprisonment; others wound up in jail under dubious charges (Mikhail Khodorkovsky) -the destruction of the oligarchs was extremely popular among the Russian public, but their elimination did not lead to greater economic transparency -many assets were renationalized and brought under state control -a large potion of state firms have been partly or entirely redistributed among the siloviki who are close to Putin, forming new economic elite around the security services -the economic system can be viewed as dominated by a set of factions composed of siloviki and other elites who support Putin while competing with one another -as per capita GDP has risen sharply and poverty has declined, Russia has also seen the emergence of a new middle and upper class -its per capita income at PPP is now similar to Chile's and Argentina's -the sources of this economic progress stem from Russia's exports: oil, gas, and metal (all benefitting from an expansion of the international market) -small and medium sized businesses are similarly hindered by bureaucracy and bribery -finally, the prominence of the siloviki in the economy as led to increasing inequality -Russia appears to be moving toward a "resource trap" economy like those found in Iran and Saudi Arabia -declining natural resources or demand for those resources could eventually undermine Russia's economic progress
The Judiciary
-no constitutional court existed until 1991 -by definition, the Communist Party claimed to represent the true expression of the people's will and therefore could not be accused of unconstitutional acts -given the history of weak legal institutions, it has been difficult to generate rule of law in the post-communist era -economic and political change has created opportunities to generate fortunes and has allowed those with political power to gain access to new sources of wealth -organized crime remains a serious problem -the public also mistrusts law enforcement agencies such as the police -at the top of the Russian legal structure lies the Constitutional Court -has 19 members, nominated by the president, confirmed by the Federation Council -members serve life terms -empowered to rule on such matters as international treaties, relations between branches of government, violations of civil rights, and impeachment of the president -has the power of both abstract review and concrete review -NOT a court of last appeal for criminal cases -at the start of the Putin administration, the president promised to implement what he called dictatorship of law, though the result has tended to be more dictatorship than law -Medvedev deeming it legal nihilism, wherein legal codes are not respected and the state frequently uses the courts to settle political vendettas or target political opposition -many Russians rely on the courts to resolve legal disputes despite their reservations about the fairness of the legal system as a whole
Russia's Demographic Future
-one issue that plagues Russia is the country's demographics -Russian life expectancy at birth is about 70 years, 75 for women and 64 for men -this figure is shockingly low, given the overall level of development of the country -some of the problem may be due to the erosion of Russia's health care system following the collapse of the USSR and the transition to capitalism, though the erosion in fact began to emerge in the 1960s -Russia shows an unusually high level of ADULT mortality, especially among men which is equal to India's rate -alcohol consumption is the main source of the problem -Russia is the highest consumer of had alcohol, leading to circulatory diseases and death by accidents, suicide, and homicide -a second demographic worrying Russian leaders is the country's low birth rate -the high participation of women in the workforce creates disincentives to have larger families -lack of access to contraceptives, higher rate of abortions -by 2050, Russia may lose 20 million people -Russia is struggling with how to respond to its demographic troubles -has sought to crack down on alcohol abuse by relying in part on increased taxes on alcohol as a way to deter consumption -also offered cash bonuses to women who have more children
The Constitution
-the Russian constitution is a document born of violent conflict -although the Soviet state was dissolved, many elements of the old regime, including its political leaders, remained intact and in power -this carryover led to conflict -most problematic was the battle between President Yeltsin and the existing parliament -as Yeltsin sought increased reform, the parliament grew so hostile that it sought to block his policies and impeach him -September 1993: Yeltsin responded by dissolving the parliament -led to conflict, but the army's support of Yeltsin led to his ability to write a new constitution, ratified in 1993 -thought the new constitution formally swept away the old legislative order, it could hardly be described as an auspicious beginning for democracy because it facilitated the development of a system that emphasized presidential power
Society Ethnic and National Identity
-the USSR was an ethnically diverse country made up of a number of republics, each representing a particular ethnic group -the dissolution of the USSR, however, eliminated much of this ethnic diversity -today, Russia is overwhelmingly composed of ethnic Russians -nearly 80% of the Russian population is ethnically Russian and although there are scores of minority groups, none represents more than 4% of the population (Slavics, indigenous Siberians to name a few) -Russia is historically dominated by a single religious faith, Orthodox Christianity
contd.
-the prime minister's role is to supervise those ministries not under presidential control and propose legislation to parliament that upholds the president's policy goals -the prime minister also promulgates the national budget -the Russian prime minister and other members of cabinet, are not appointed from and need to reflect the relative powers of the various parties in parliament (more based on the individual!) -the appointment of Putin to be prime minister "under" Medvedev raised many questions about the nature of the semi-presidential system in Russia (Putin continued to dominate politics from what was an ostensibly weaker office) -power is more vested in an individual than any particular office
The Branches of Government The Kremlin: The President and the Prime Minister
-today, much of the Kremlin's power is vested in the hands of the presidency, as elaborated in the 1993 constitution -that constitution created powerful office through which the president could press for economic and political changes despite parliamentary opposition -under Yeltsin and Putin, the result was a semi-presidential system in which the president served as head of state while the PM served as head of government -since 2012, the president is elected to serve a 6 year term -the president may serve no more than two consecutive terms and can be removed only through impeachment -Yeltsin->Putin->Medvedev->Putin (all endorsed by the previous president) -Medvedev won since other candidates were effectively barred from running for office, Putin returned in 2012 -on paper, the president's powers are numerous -the president chooses and dismisses the prime minister and other members of the cabinet -the Duma may reject the president's nominee, but if it does so 3 times, the president must dissolve the Duma and call for new elections -the president cannot dissolve the Duma either in the year following parliamentary elections or in the last 6 months of his term -the president also appoints leaders to 7 federal districts that constitute all of Russia -the president may propose and veto bills, he can issue decrees (laws that do not require legislative approval, are often not made public, and may not be challenged by citizens in the courts) -the president has direct control over the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry, and the Interior Ministry (which handles the police and domestic security) as well as over the armed forces -he also controls the successor to the KGB, the Federal Security Service, which manages domestic and foreign intelligence and is viewed by many as the main political actor in Russia, alongside Putin -control over the ministries allows for power over foreign affairs and domestic security -impeachment is possible only on a charge of high treason or another grave crime -impeachment MUST be approved first by the high courts, after which two-thirds of both houses of parliament must vote in support of the president's removal
The Legislature
-under Communist rule, the legislature served as little more than a rubber stamp, meeting for a few days each year to pass legislation drafted by party leaders -today, Russia' parliament has little direct influence over the course of government -Russia's bicameral parliament is known officially as the Federal Assembly -comprised of a lower house (450-seat Duma) and the upper house (166-seat Federation Council) -members of the Duma, the more powerful of the 2 offices, serve 5 year terms -members of the Federation Council serve varied terms depending on the rules of federal territory they represent -the Duma has the right to initiate and accept or reject legislation and may override the president's veto a with two-thirds vote -Duma also approves the appointment of the PM -Duma can call a vote of no confidence in opposition to the prime minister and his government -should a no-confidence vote pass, the president may simply ignore the decision -of second such vote passes within 3 months, however, the president is obliged to dismiss the prime minister and cabinet and call for a new Duma -the Duma wields unpredictable weapons -the Duma's opposition to the PM could lead to its own dissolution (could lead to elections that strengthen the position of opposition parties) -thus far, the Duma has not put this power to use, though in 1998 the Yeltsin administration was forced to withdraw a candidate for PM -the Duma can wield power in drafting legislation -the legislative's powers have become increasingly theoretical over the past decade (Duma has become dominated by a single party loyal to Putin)
Political Regime
-while a number of democratic structures have been built since 1991, they remain weakly institutionalized and, under Putin, have been restricted or ignored -in the 1990s, democratic institutions and civic organizations were weak and poorly institutionalized, in the Putin era they have been effectively stifled
