Arguments by analogy (6 criteria)
Less probable, Disnanalogy *The quarterback is an important player. He was present when the past games were won, but he will be absent in the next game. {NOT SIMILAR- QUARTERBACK IS GONE}
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} A faithful alumnus, heartened by State's winning its last four football games, decides to bet his money that State will win its next game, too. a. Suppose that since the last game, State's outstanding quarterback was injured in practice and hospitalized for the remainder of the season.
Neither, Variety of instances It doesn't matter where the game was played, whether it be in their field or the opponent's field, the team always won.
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} A faithful alumnus, heartened by State's winning its last four football games, decides to bet his money that State will win its next game, too. b. Suppose that two of the last four games were played away, and that two of them were home games.
More probable, Number of entities *The increase in the number of times the team won in the past makes it more likely that they'll win again.
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} A faithful alumnus, heartened by State's winning its last four football games, decides to bet his money that State will win its next game, too. d. Suppose that State had won its last six games rather than only four of them.
More probable, Number of similar respects
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} A faithful alumnus, heartened by State's winning its last four football games, decides to bet his money that State will win its next game, too. e. Suppose that it has rained hard during each of the four previous games, and that rain is forecast for next Saturday too.
More probable, Claim the conclusion makes *The conclusion (that they'll win the next game) is a modest or conservative one compared to the past cases when the team won by at least four touchdowns. {COMAPARED TO OTHER GAMES, THEY'LL DO MORE THAN WIN}
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} A faithful alumnus, heartened by State's winning its last four football games, decides to bet his money that State will win its next game, too. f. Suppose that each of the last four games was won by a margin of at least four touchdowns.
More probable, Variety of instances
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Although she was bored by the last few foreign films she saw, Charlene agrees to go to see another one this evening, fully expecting to be bored again. a. Suppose that Charlene also was bored by the last few American movies she saw.
More probable, Number of similar respects
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Although she was bored by the last few foreign films she saw, Charlene agrees to go to see another one this evening, fully expecting to be bored again. c. Suppose that the last few foreign films that Charlene saw were Italian, and that tonight's film is Italian as well.
More probable, Claim that the conclusion makes
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Although she was bored by the last few foreign films she saw, Charlene agrees to go to see another one this evening, fully expecting to be bored again. d. Suppose that Charlene was so bored by the other foreign films that she actually fell asleep during the performance.
Neither, Variety of instances
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Although she was bored by the last few foreign films she saw, Charlene agrees to go to see another one this evening, fully expecting to be bored again. e. Suppose that the last few foreign films she saw included an Italian, a French, an English, and a Swedish film.
Less probable, Disanalogy
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Although she was bored by the last few foreign films she saw, Charlene agrees to go to see another one this evening, fully expecting to be bored again. f. Suppose that tonight's film is a mystery, whereas all of those she saw before were comedies.
More probable, Number of similar respects *The change provides an additional respect in which the instance in the conclusion is the same as those in the premises
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} An investor has purchased one hundred shares of oil stock every December for the past five years. In every case the value of the stock has appreciated by about 15 percent a year, and it has paid regular dividends of about 8 percent a year on the price at which she bought it. This December she decides to buy another hundred shares of oil stock, reasoning that she will probably receive modest earnings while watching the value of her new purchase increase over the years. a. Suppose that she had always purchased stock in eastern oil companies before, and plans to purchase stock in an eastern oil company this year, too.
More probable, Number of entities *With this change the number of entities in the premises is substantially increased
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} An investor has purchased one hundred shares of oil stock every December for the past five years. In every case the value of the stock has appreciated by about 15 percent a year, and it has paid regular dividends of about 8 percent a year on the price at which she bought it. This December she decides to buy another hundred shares of oil stock, reasoning that she will probably receive modest earnings while watching the value of her new purchase increase over the years. b. Suppose that she had purchased oil stocks every December for the past fifteen years, instead of for only five years.
More probable, Claim that the conclusion makes *With this change in the premises, the conclusion, although unchanged, is now, relatively speaking, substantially more modest
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} An investor has purchased one hundred shares of oil stock every December for the past five years. In every case the value of the stock has appreciated by about 15 percent a year, and it has paid regular dividends of about 8 percent a year on the price at which she bought it. This December she decides to buy another hundred shares of oil stock, reasoning that she will probably receive modest earnings while watching the value of her new purchase increase over the years. c. Suppose that the oil stocks previously purchased had gone up by 30 percent a year, instead of by only 15 percent.
More probable, Variety among the premises *With this change, the dissimilarity among the instances in the premises is clearly established
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} An investor has purchased one hundred shares of oil stock every December for the past five years. In every case the value of the stock has appreciated by about 15 percent a year, and it has paid regular dividends of about 8 percent a year on the price at which she bought it. This December she decides to buy another hundred shares of oil stock, reasoning that she will probably receive modest earnings while watching the value of her new purchase increase over the years. d. Suppose that her previous purchase of oil stock had been in foreign companies as well in eastern, southern, and western U.S. oil companies.
Less probable, Disanalogy *With this change in the premises, a significant difference between the instance in the conclusion and the instances in the premises is introduced {NOT SIMILAR- CHANGED MEETING TIME}
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} An investor has purchased one hundred shares of oil stock every December for the past five years. In every case the value of the stock has appreciated by about 15 percent a year, and it has paid regular dividends of about 8 percent a year on the price at which she bought it. This December she decides to buy another hundred shares of oil stock, reasoning that she will probably receive modest earnings while watching the value of her new purchase increase over the years. e. Suppose she learns that OPEC has decided to meet every month instead of every six months.
Neither, Variety of instances
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Bill has taken three history courses and found them very stimulating and valuable, so he signs up for another one, confidently expecting that it too will be worthwhile. a. Suppose that his previous history courses were in ancient history, modern European history, and U.S. history.
More probable, Number of similar respects
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Bill has taken three history courses and found them very stimulating and valuable, so he signs up for another one, confidently expecting that it too will be worthwhile. b. Suppose that his previous history courses had all been taught by the same professor scheduled to teach the present one.
Less probable, Disanalogies
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Bill has taken three history courses and found them very stimulating and valuable, so he signs up for another one, confidently expecting that it too will be worthwhile. c. Suppose that his previous history courses had all been taught by Professor Smith, and the present one is taught by Professor Jones.
More probable, Claim that the conclusion makes
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Bill has taken three history courses and found them very stimulating and valuable, so he signs up for another one, confidently expecting that it too will be worthwhile. d. Suppose that Bill had found his three previous history courses to be the most exciting intellectual experiences of his life.
More probable, Number of similar respects
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Bill has taken three history courses and found them very stimulating and valuable, so he signs up for another one, confidently expecting that it too will be worthwhile. e. Suppose that his previous history courses had all met at 9 A.M., and that the present one is also scheduled to meet at 9 A.M.
More probable, Variety of instances
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Dr. Brown has stayed at the Queen's Hotel every fall for the past six years on her annual visit to New York, and she has been quite satisfied with her accommodations there. On her visit to New York this fall, Dr. Brown goes again to the Queen's Hotel, confidently expecting to enjoy her stay there again. a. Suppose that when she stayed at the Queen's Hotel before, she had occupied a single room twice, shared a double room twice, and twice occupied a suite.
Less probable, Disanalogies
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Dr. Brown has stayed at the Queen's Hotel every fall for the past six years on her annual visit to New York, and she has been quite satisfied with her accommodations there. On her visit to New York this fall, Dr. Brown goes again to the Queen's Hotel, confidently expecting to enjoy her stay there again. b. Suppose that last spring a new manager had been put in charge of the Queen's Hotel.
More probable, Number of similar respects
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Dr. Brown has stayed at the Queen's Hotel every fall for the past six years on her annual visit to New York, and she has been quite satisfied with her accommodations there. On her visit to New York this fall, Dr. Brown goes again to the Queen's Hotel, confidently expecting to enjoy her stay there again. c. Suppose that she had occupied a suite on all of her previous trips and is assigned a suite this time as well.
More probable, Claim that the conclusion makes
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Dr. Brown has stayed at the Queen's Hotel every fall for the past six years on her annual visit to New York, and she has been quite satisfied with her accommodations there. On her visit to New York this fall, Dr. Brown goes again to the Queen's Hotel, confidently expecting to enjoy her stay there again. e. Suppose that, when she stayed at the Queen's Hotel before, her quarters had been the most luxurious she had ever known.
More probable, Number of entities
{MORE/ LESS PROBABLE? -- CRITERIA?} Dr. Brown has stayed at the Queen's Hotel every fall for the past six years on her annual visit to New York, and she has been quite satisfied with her accommodations there. On her visit to New York this fall, Dr. Brown goes again to the Queen's Hotel, confidently expecting to enjoy her stay there again. f. Suppose that she had stayed at the Queen's Hotel three times a year for the past six years.
