carbon cycle, global warming and climate change
destructive storms
With ocean temperature being a key factor for hurricane formation, global warming will include the increased generation of windstorms and tornadoes with greater power and frequency.
why have GHG emissions gone down since 2008?
1.Coal use (most GHG emissions) declined due to new and potenitial environmental regulations 2.Gas and renewables (less GHG) increased to replace coal 3.Improved fuel efficiency for both vehicular and industrial applications 4.Gas prices increased, less traveling
loss of biodiversity and animal extinction
Loss of habitat for polar-ice edge communities such as polar bears, seabirds, seals and sea lions is perhaps the most obvious consequence of having a warmer climate. Animals that are entirely dependent on cold environments will retreat to more northerly locations as the planet heats up - leading to encroachment upon other eco-systems and displacement of other animals from their natural habitat.
increased insurance premiums
You may not live in Florida or Texas, but your insurance rates could spike because of hurricanes. Climate change forces insurers to charge more because of expensive weather-related disasters. It's a problem many insurers face as they try to plan for an increasingly unpredictable climate. Insured losses include hurricanes, windstorms, wildfires, and floods, all of which are climate change related.
carbon
non metallic element with symbol C and atomic number 6 4th most abundant element in universe building block of all living things main pathway - in and out of living matter 58% harder than diamond
biosphere
part of Earth in which life exists including land, water, and air or atmosphere
milankovitch cycles
Changes in the shape earth's orbit and tilt that cause glacial periods and interglacial periods. Today, the Earth's axis is tilted 23.5 degrees from the plane of its orbit around the sun. But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 41,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. In fact, 41,000 years from now, summer in Tennessee will be in December and July and August will be frigid! This is known as axial precession.
global climate drivers
-Changes in incoming solar isolation -Configuration of continents -Changes in albedo -Changes in atmospheric composition (reservoirs) -Milankovitch cycles
paris climate accord 2015
1.Hold increase in global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels ● 2.Increase ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low GHG emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production ● 3.Make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. ● 4.Countries aim to reach global peaking of GHGs as soon as possible
paris agreement goals
1.Hold increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, 2.Increase ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production 3.Make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. 4.Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible" (A driver of fossil fuel divestment).
heating and cooling of the earth
5 significant ice ages throughout earths history
cold and cool waves
A cold wave is characterized by a major plunge in temperature over a 24-hour period. It can be a devastating shock for crops and commerce, and also bring death and injury to humans and animals through accidents, hypothermia and starvation. Damage to pipelines and property can be costly, and, particularly if snowfall accompanies the cold wave, transport systems can grind to a halt, adversely affecting the distribution of food, water and medical supplies. It may seem illogical at first to attribute harsher cold weather to global warming, but a change in atmospheric patterns brought about by receding glacial ice can lead to the redirection of polar air currents and the sun's rays being absorbed by the larger areas of dark blue sea, while critical phenomena like the Gulf Stream can be affected by changing ocean temperatures as well.
death by smog
A powerful combination of vehicular fumes, ground-level ozone, airborne industrial pollution and the stagnant hot air associated with heat waves, smog represents an immediate and chronic health threat to those living in built-up urban areas. A hotter climate leads to increased levels of ozone, with smog-related deaths predicted to rise by about 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s.
worse allergies
Allergy sufferers beware: a leading researcher has warned that climate change could cause pollen counts to more than double in the next 30 years. One study has already shown that doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will increase ragweed pollen - the primary culprit in fall allergies - by 61%.
animal attacks
Animals driven from their habitats or migration routes by environmental factors could easily come into contact with human settlements, leading to many deaths among humans and already endangered animals. During the serious, recent droughts that struck Kenya's Amboseli National Park, lions began to venture out of the park in search of prey, resulting in attacks on the already decimated Maasai livestock and even trapping some people in their homes. Attacks on humans by tigers in India are on the rise as climate change affects mangrove forests in India's Sundarban region. Similarly, sharks are moving into new areas to find stable food sources, and some of these are heavily populated by humans. Experts say there are now more sharks in the waters off California and Florida than ever before.
greenhouse gas
Any gas capable of trapping heat on the earth's surface is a greenhouse gas (GHG). GHGs are essential for earth, but excess of GHGs can damage the environment.
forest fires
As Earth warms, dry lands already susceptible to wildfires are likely to be ravaged by more frequent and destructive episodes. Massive blazes in 2017 burn in the United States, Canada, Russia, South America, and across Europe, situations becoming normal as a consequence of the greenhouse effect. Also, the CO2 and soot released by these large-scale fires, together with the deforestation they cause, further compound the air pollution as the gases that help to create the greenhouse effect are supplemented and less mature trees survive to draw CO2 from the atmosphere. California 2018 most devastating in history (Woolsey and Camp wildfires).
spread of disease
As northern countries warm, disease carrying insects migrate north, bringing plague and disease with them. Some scientists believe that in some countries, thanks to global warming, malaria has not been fully eradicated. However, recent COVID-19 virus might actually be controlled better by warmer temperatures.
warmer waters, more hurricanes
As the temperature of oceans rises, so will probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. A rise in the world's sea surface temperatures was the primary contributor to the formation of stronger hurricanes since 1970, a new study
key terms
Carbon (C)- Non-metallic element found in coal, petroleum and natural gas. Major component of life. Carbon Cycle- Circulation of carbon through ecosystems Atmosphere- Layer of gasses around Earth stratosphere and troposphere (where we live) Fossil Fuels- Carbon-rich fuel from ancient animals and plants Greenhouse gas - A gas that "traps" heat in the earth's atmosphere, resulting in global warming and climate change Photosynthesis- Process in green plants that uses sunlight to synthesize foods from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water. Photosynthesis involves the green pigment chlorophyll and generates oxygen as a byproduct: Energy (sun)+ Water+ Carbon dioxide à Carbohydrates (food)+ Oxygen Methane (CH4): Methane is produced by agriculture and growing products like rice. Livestock farming creates methane. Burning fossil fuels and many other industrial processes generate methane, which is more powerful than CO2 as a GHG but shorter-lived. Water vapor: This is the simplest form and most voluminous of greenhouse gases and is responsible for 30% of global warming. Mostly natural but increasing due to global warming. Fluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride: 100% from industrial processes and chemical releases. Nitrous oxide: This is the least contributory of the green house gases but it can be released into the atmosphere through agriculture and industrial processes. Ozone (O3): O3 is one of the purest form of oxygen. It is also an important greenhouse gas emitted by several natural and manmade processes. Carbon dioxide: Released and sequestered by numerous processes, both manmade and natural. The number one man-made emitted GHG.
global warming basics
Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing planet to warm up. Transportation emitted 1.92 billion tons/CO2 in 2018 and was the # 1 emitter of GHGs in USA. Emissions rose by 1% that year. - - - - - - - Fossil power plants produced 1.86 billion tons CO2 in 2018 in USA and rose by 3.4% over 2017. UPDATE: In 2019, U.S. GHG emissions fell 2.1% in 2019 percent last year almost entirely because of a sharp drop in coal consumption. Coal-fired electric power generation, which had rebounded slightly in 2018, fell by a record 18 percent to the lowest level since 1975. We expect 2020 to be a lower emissions year, too, but entirely due to coronavirus impacts to economy.
eight allotropes
Eight allotropes (one of two existing forms of an element) of carbon: a) Diamond, b) Graphite, c) Lonsdaleite, d) C60 (Buckminsterfullerene or Bucky ball), e) C540, f) C70, g) Amorphous carbon, and h) single-walled carbon nanotube or Bucky tube
desertification
Elevation in temperatures is likely to aggravate soil and vegetation loss in already hot climes. An increase in evapotranspiration and the accompanying decrease in rainfall mean that already semi-arid and sub-humid areas found across the world would face a future barrenness that is almost irreversible. This would negatively affect biodiversity and have a major impact on local human cultures and wildlife.
migration, conflict and wars
Future centuries could see increased friction between nations as dwindling resources lead to migration and conflict. Countries and factions would seek to control precious, resources and provide safety and shelter for their own people - perhaps at the cost of others. Simultaneously, previously heavily populated places would become uninhabitable due to heat or sea level rise, displacing millions of people. These refugee hordes might be corralled into semi-permanent camps, or even suffer at the hands of unwelcoming native groups. Even now, relocations are taking place. Mumbai's population is estimated to become swollen by a further 7 million people by the year 2050 as global warming renders villages and hamlets uninhabitable or unprofitable, either through flooding or drought. More land pollution would be an inevitable by-product of these changes in habitation and the availability of resources.
warming could strengthen el nino
Global warming could impact the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), altering the cycles of El Niño and La Niña events that bring extreme drought and flooding to Australia and many other Pacific-rim countries. Stronger El Niño's mean more radical associated climatic events. El Niño is a band of anomalously warm ocean water temperatures that occasionally develops off the western coast of South America and can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.
CO2 facts
Humans emit roughly 30-40 billion tons of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere yearly. From 1917 - 2016 average global temperature rose 2.25°F), directly correlated to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
diminished food and water supplies
In some areas of the world, with greatly reduced rainfall, more severe droughts and loss of soil fertility, food and water supplies would soon diminish, resulting in higher prices, famine, disease, malnutrition, starvation and, ultimately, death. Politically unstable countries or badly affected areas might descend into various degrees of anarchy, with governmental collapses and shifts in authority as those in control of resources become more powerful. Countries that still retain good food and water resources might be unwilling to part with these vital commodities or accept the millions of refugees that would seek new homes. Ultimately these consequences would be catastrophic.
economic consequences
Most of the effects of global warming won't be good. And these effects spell one thing for the countries of the world: economic consequences. Hurricanes cause billions of dollars in damage, diseases cost money to treat and control and conflicts exacerbate all of these. Check out Venice, Italy. Sea level rise!
greenhouse effect
Natural situation in which heat is retained in Earth's atmosphere by carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and other gases - effect is to warm the earths surface
money benefits
New scientific discoveries are casting doubt on how much of the warming of the 20th and 21st century is or was natural versus man-made, and governments around the world are beginning to confront the astronomical cost of reducing emissions. Economists, meanwhile, are calculating that the cost of slowing or stopping global warming exceeds the social benefits.
chart facts
Now we go back 500 years. This is important because prior to the 1880, there are only indirect data that can be used to interpret what the climate was like (temperature, CO2 levels, rainfall, etc.). While these "proxy" data can be reliable, they are certainly not as good as today's technology and are the common subject of arguments among scientists in their interpretation. Note that the reddish solid area is what we call error, so the real answer can like somewhere within the error bar.
death of ocean life
Oceans absorb roughly 30% of all anthropogenic CO2 that seeps into the atmosphere, and so as more fossil fuels are burned, ocean life will continue to suffer the negative consequences of global warming. One of the most critical changes brought about by global warming is the ongoing reduction of phytoplankton which are an integral food source for ocean life and are responsible for around half of the world's photosynthetic activity. Essentially, they are the foundations of the oceanic food chain, so a reduction in their numbers creates a knock-on effect that ripples up the entire food chain, particularly affecting the predators at the top. Additionally, ocean acidification and warmer surface temperatures increase dangers to many aquatic animals. Coral reefs are very sensitive to temperature changes, with many of them already observed to have 'bleached' and died.
theory: higher CO2, higher temps
One of the major problems with evaluating temperature and CO2 data is time. Geologists work with very long time periods (see previous slide), while climate deniers sometimes focus on shorter periods of time that might show brief variations from longer term trends. In fact, we only have "modern" instrumental records back the late 1800s (and even they were limited), and our technology far surpasses anything over 100 years ago. There is a direct correlation between CO2 concentrations and temperature. CO2 goes up, temps go up. CO2 goes down, temps go. As you can see from this graph, CO2 (the blue) concentration is at its highest ever in 400,000 years. Temperature, however, has been higher several times in the past, but is predicted to go up. Also of note is that recently CO2 levels reached their highest in the last 1 million years!
greenhouse gases
Positive feedback is an important process in environmental science and geology. There are many examples beyond the one in this slide. One example is the melting of permafrost (frozen organic soil that covers almost 25% of the planet). Melting permafrost, due to global warming, will decompose and release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. That methane acts to further warm the atmosphere which acts to melt more permafrost, which decays and emits more methane that further warms the planet... and so on. This is a positive feedback (not necessarily a positive result, though. Greenhouse gases provide a "positive" feedback to warming the atmosphere. Positive feedback is a process in which the end products of an action cause more of that action to occur.
droughts and heat waves
Some areas of Earth will become wetter due to global warming, other areas will suffer serious droughts and heat waves. Africa will receive the worst of it, with more severe droughts also expected in Europe. Water is already a dangerously rare commodity in Africa, and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming will exacerbate the conditions and could lead to conflicts and war. And here in the SE USA or SW have seen!
GHG emissions by US
Texas is the biggest one now in 2016 - China became #1 several years ago, surpassing the USA in GHG emissions (given as GTCO2, which means gigatons equivalent of CO2. Even so, over history, the USA has emitted much more CO2 than the rest of the world. Rather than break down every GHG per country, gases such as methane or nitrous oxide are calculated as CO2 equivalence, meaning that a given amount of methane or other GHGs has a warming effect of a given quantity of CO2.
the carbon cycle
The carbon cycle is similar to the water cycle in that it follows various forms and transformations of carbon and its compounds through various "compartments" or components of the earth's environment. Like water, no new carbon is added to the earth as a whole, but rather it is moved from one compartment to another. The concept of climate change follows the Gaia hypothesis, in that carbon which has been locked up in the earth as fossil fuels (gas, coal, and oil) is being mined and burned to release that carbon, mostly in the form of carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere component of the carbon cycle. Some of this carbon is absorbed into the ocean, transformed into rocks like limestone (a very slow process), or absorbed into living organisms like trees and plants.
Apsidal Precession
The dynamic wobble of the earth's entire orbit. Recall the sun is a focal point of the earth's elliptical orbit. The other focal point essentially orbits in a circle, tracing a circular path around the sun. This cycle takes about 21,000 years.
400 years of sunspot observations
The sun also has cycles where it puts out more or less solar energy over a certain time period. Obviously, less solar energy would support colder temps on Earth.
global warming facts
Today there is an ongoing debate about human contribution to global warming. Most scientists agree that it is partly to 100% caused by mankind.
global warming climate change
a part of climate change
fossil fuels
coal - mined out of the ground natural gas - flammable methane gas, found near petroleum oil - liquid found underground between folds of rocks We have more coal than any other energy resource. Coal remains an important factor in the 25 states in which it is mined.
carbon in the biosphere
even smaller 540-610 gigatons but still an important store to lock up carbon •All living organisms contain carbon •Plants use CO2 and water to form simple sugars (photosynthesis) •Plants accumulate carbon in woody parts *3.04 Trillion Trees on Earth (about 422 trees/person). This represents 45% of the number of trees that existed before the rise of humans who are are cutting down about 15 billion/year a year, with highest losses in the tropics where some of the oldest and biggest trees live.
2019
hottest years on records globally
polar wobble
is another natural way that creates global warming suggests that there have been rapid shifts in the relative positions of the poles and the axis of rotation of the earth - creating floods and tectonic events
sequestered carbon
lock it up - until they come up with a verdict
possible remedies to climate change
reforestation, wetland restoration, agricultural practices, reduce fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage ( technology that most power companies have applied a lot of research), ocean fertilization (•Iron is a limiting nutrient for algae in the ocean. Adding iron would feed the algae and increase photosynthesizing CO2-gobbling microbes) , chemical processes, geoengineering
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
very large pool of warm water moving back and forth across the North Pacific every 30 years
amount of carbon
•0.032% in the lithosphere. • •The amount of carbon in the lithosphere: 66 to 100 million gigatons (a gigaton is one million metric tons). • •Of this amount, only 4,000 gigatons consists of fossil fuels. • •However, this small amount of C has been locked up in the rocks until mankind mined it as coal, oil and gas and has increased atmospheric carbon to environmental tipping point.
positive impacts of climate change
•Booming businesses... in the Arctic. Without Arctic Ocean will be open, creating a new trade route from the Atlantic to Asia. It's only traversable in the summer now, but global warming could open it year-round, saving money for everyone. •More food due to longer summers. Hotter temperatures translate into a longer growing season. Canada becomes the new USAPlus, plants love CO2! It's like food for them. CO2 would act like a fertilizer. With free airborne plant fertilizer and longer growing seasons, food production will skyrocket. Of course, this is assuming that global warming doesn't cause massive droughts or floods that destroy the crops and farmable land. • •More summer (and winter) fun! Summer itself won't technically last longer, as the dates are based on sunlight instead of temperature. But if you define summer by warm temperatures, you're in luck. It'll stay hot for much longer with summer businesses booming. Also, more precipitation might translate to more snow in ski resorts. •Less dead people. Assuming there aren't any wars over scarce resources, food production stays OK, sea levels don't drown people, and basically nothing else bad happens, we can expect less people to die in the winter. Global warming would cause winter temperatures to rise. In addition to saving us money on our heating bills, this could literally save billions in health care costs and mean less dead people during the colder months. One study said that warmer winters could save up to 40,000 lives a year in the US alone, mostly the young and elderly, with the reductions mostly in things like pneumonia deaths and other cold weather diseases. • •Less need for energy consumption to warm cold places. • •Boundary disputes between countries over low-lying islands will disappear. • •Antarctica and Greenland will become more habitable.
basic effects in climate change
•Ice melt and resultant sea level rise • •Disruption in climatic patterns (precipitation, temperature, weather) • •Disruption of oceanic currents that influence global climate
or adapt...
•Improve infrastructure: seawalls, levees, build up lowlands •Migrate, which is already happening slowly •Improve access to resources like food, water, energy, medicine •Reduce poverty and lower inequities of resources and wealth •Improve education and information •Improve agricultural production, drought tolerant crops •Rainwater storage, more damming
bottom line
•It's going to be a hotter, drier, wetter, colder, stormier, buggier, more crowded, more expensive, big beautiful world full of pissed off people and animals • •Will be one of your biggest issues over the next century, whether you are a geologist, a surgeon, a teacher, a plumber, a bus driver, or a yak rancher • •Must be addressed (Despite politicians) • •Will affect us all somehow • •Or... maybe not?
what do we do?
•Scientific consensus is that Earth's climate is warming, and that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that warming is predominantly caused by humans at least since the mid-20th century •Paris Accord (2015): an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020. Trump bailed the USA out of this but Biden vows to reenter.
polar ice caps melting
•Sea levels will rise. There are 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow. If all glaciers and ice melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet • •Ice caps are fresh water, and when they melt, they desalinate the ocean. Desalinization of the Gulf current will affect ocean currents, which regulate temperatures, and cool the area around Northeast America and Western Europe • •Temperatures rise and change landscapes in the Arctic Circle and will endanger species • •Global warming could snowball with the ice caps gone. Ice caps are white, and reflect sunlight, much of which is reflected back into space, further cooling Earth. This is a POSITIVE feedback.
carbon in the atmosphere
•Smallest amount of carbon stores is in atmosphere •Primarily CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4). CO2 concentrations dropped from 4,000 parts per million (ppm) about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 ppm during the Quaternary ice ages of the last 2 million years.
however facts;
•USA 2nd largest emitter behind China • •Trump administration is basically climate change denier • •Trump promised a raft of policies during his campaign including to undo Obama's climate action plan and defund UN climate change work. • •USA is now ONLY world nation to not belong to Paris Accord • •Joe Biden to rejoin Paris Accord in 2021
natural resources of GHG
•Volcanoes and volcanism •Wetlands •Oceans •Decaying plants/animals •Wild animal activity (farts, feces, other) •Methane hydrates •Wild fires
crops in the crosshairs of global warming
•Wheat: India may lose 8% of crop to heat stress, while Russia may be able to expand production • •Peaches: CA is our biggest peach producer. Peaches require 700 hours of "chilling time" or they won' blossom. Heat in CA may result in less chilling time and reduced or not crops. • •Coffee: Requires specific temperatures - not to hot and not freezing, plus just the right amount of rain, light and soil. • •Corn: Warming climate, hot temps and intense rain not good for corn (e.g., Iowa) • •Almonds: Back to CA. Almond growers depend on slow snow melts feeding irrigation channels. Increased temps and earlier melts leave a condensed season of available water for almond trees.
