CDP Module 1

list the ways analysts can benefit from using the alternative futures technique.

- effective in providing means to weigh multiple factors and present a set of plausible outcomes - identify plausible combinations of uncertain factors - provides broader analytic framework for calculating the cost, risk, and opportunities presented to policy makers - aids analyst in anticipating what would otherwise be surprising developments - generates indicators to monitor for signs that a particular future is becoming more or less likely.

what are the benefits of ACH?

- ensures info and argumentation are given equal treatment - prevents analyst from premature closing on a particular explanation of hypothesis - protects the analyst against innate tendencies to ignore or discount info that does not fit comfortably with the preferred explanation at the time

what do you ask yourself when providing assesments?

- how credible is the claim? - can you trust what this person claims? - how strong are those arguments? - are your facts correct? - given what you know up to this point, how confident are you with your final conclusion?

what is left after applying the SATs to the analytical process and before sending your info to the decision makers?

- provide assessments - provide explanation

what is the benefit of argument mapping?

- the visual representation of the map makes it easier to recognize weaknesses in opposing arguments, - pinpoints the location of any disagreement, - and can also serve as an objective bias for mediating a disagreement.

what are the ACH steps (in short)?

1. clearly identify intel q to be answered. brainstorm and ensure hypothesis represents "MECE": Mutually Exclusive, collectively Exhaustive 2. list all significant evidence and assumptions related to the q 3. prepare a matrix with hypothesis across the top and evidence along the side and analyze the diagnosticity of the evidence and arguments, if it is helpful. is it C (consistent), I (inconsistent), N/A (N), or D (disapproves) 4. revise matrix and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value 5. draw tentative conclusions about the realtive likelihood of each hypothesis, try to disprove hypothesis. 6. analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence and consider the consequences for your analysis if the evidence is wrong, misleading or subject to diff. interpretation 7. report conclusion. discuss the likelihood of all hypotheses not just most likely ones 8. identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.

what are the steps to the argument mapping method?

1. creat your claim 2. support the claim (because) 3. objections to claim (but) 4. rebuttals to objections (however).

what are the steps to developing alternative facts SAT?

1. develop the focal issue 2. get a group of internal and external experts to brainstorm about the forces and factors that could affect the issue 3. select by consensus. 2 most critical and uncertain forces (major factors) 4. establish the most relevant endpoint for each of the major factors 5. for a future matrix by crossing the 2 chosen axes 6. create a "bumper sticker" phrase to capture the future in each quadrant 7. brainstorm sign post or indicators for each quadrant that reflect the potential activities and events that could occur.

what are the steps to the AIM Method?

1. write down the agreed on focal point or question 2. create a matrix with the headers: options. pros, cons, fixes, intended results of adopting (immediately expected outcomes of adopted option), broad implications of adopting(2nd and 3rd order consequences), indicators of adopting option (observables that can be collected that indicate the option had ben selected).

what are the 4 types of SATs covered?

ACH (Analysis of Competing) AIM (Adversary Intent Matrix) Alternative Futures Argument mapping

list the sources Big Data can be collected from

Geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) satellite imagery Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) intercepted communications, emissions and signals Measurement and signature intelligence (MASINT) scientific measurements, chemical analysis ect. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) intelligence derived from information collected and provided by human sources Open source intelligence (OSINT) mass media, professional and academic publications ect.

Al Data Querying

Teaching a knowledge organization system "like" terms to refer to the same object/ individual/ organization. can be used to take care of simple tasks

T/F structured analytical techniques are not only unique to intel?

True

T/F/SATs are used to make sense of the info collected related to the frames intel q's?

True

what is Social Network Analysis (SNA)?

a process that applies graph and network theory to analyze the structures of social media. i.e. people a known terrorist on facebook is friends with

machine learning?

aka machine hearing and speaking used to be able to anticipate and/or detect political crises, disease outbreaks, terrorist activity and military actions. IARPA's Mercury Program

what is machine vision?

an example id identifying people in photographs. on places like facebook... project maven

what is a sub discipline of cognitive science that integrates with other sciences like computer science and engineering with the purpose of producing machines capable of human intel and human senses?

artificial intelligence

big data/ AI relationship

can create values of catalogs to organize data and make it discoverable for the analyst and other AI systems. Basically organizing data so no intel slips through the gaps and is better for piecing together the puzzle of what when why how where if the data is being "tagged"

what are the five v's and what do they refer to?

defining characteristics of big data volume - amout of raw data produced and chnaged velocity - speed at which data is produced and changed variety - number of different types of sources of data value - how relevant or appropriate the data is to the particular question veracity - the trustworthiness, quality, timelines ect. of data

what is the purpose of the adversary Intent Matrix (AIM)?

done by the analyst from the pov of the adversary to analyze options an adversary would likely consider in response to certain situation.

What does the term Big Data refer to?

exceptionally large data collection and the process of extracting data from them.

machine learning?

how machines are able to pass data in real time from machine to machine for example self driving vehicles, good avoidance technology that can be applied to the military for example to avoid mines. obstacle avoidance with HMMWV's and MRAPs

what is predictive modeling?

it encompasses a variety of statistical techniques including predictive modeling, machine learning, and data mining that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or unknown events.

what is structured and unstructured data? whats the difference?

its is how collected data is characterized. structured data is organized into defined fields and is easier to search while unstructured data is the majority of all data that is not already organized.

what is Natural Language Processing (NLP)?

pertains to AI, refers to trying to enable computers to understand human languages.

what can be defined as or is the process of assessing the credibility of statements or other representations which are accounts or descriptions of a persons perception, experience, situation, judgement, belief, or opinion while also assessing the logical strength of the actual or intended inferential relationships among statements, descriptions, questions, or other forms of representation?

provide assessments

what is defined as being bale to present, in a cogent and coherent way, the results of ones reasoning? (aka "a full view of the big picture")

provide explanation

what is spatial analysis?

the process of using location information to organize data specifically and identify resultant patterns and relationships.

why are SATs (structured analytical technique)so important?

their application helps the analyst take a systematic approach to problem solving, mitigate bias and error and enhance analytic credibility.

what are the challenges of big data?

theres more data than we have people and/or space

what is the main goal of artificial intelligence?

to create a machine capable of imitating intelligent human behaviors while also supplementing or replacing the need for human intervention.

what is the purpose of Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)?

to ensure all info and arguments are evaluated and given equal treatment then considered in hypothesis.

what is the purpose of argument mapping?

to test a single hypothesis, through logical reasoning, its creating a visual map to test your reasoning, the map helps bette understand the strengths, weaknesses and gaps within the argument.

what do you ask yourself when you provide explanation?

what are the specific findings of the investigation? how did you conduct this analysis? how did you come to this interpretation? what was your reasoning? why do you think that was the right answer for the solution? how do you explain why this particular decision was made?

when is alternative futures SAT used?

when a situation is too complex or the situation outcome is too uncertain to truest a single outcome assessment.