Chapter 10: Climate Change
What are the main sources of methane?
2/3 is from Human activities: livestock, mining of coal, oil, and natural gas, anaerobic "without oxygen" processes in flooded agricultural fields, and the burning of vegetation in fires.
How long ago was the peak of the last major glaciation?
20,000 years
Ratios of ^{16} O/^{18} O typically increase: A. As one moves closer to the equator B. As one moves close to the poles C. As conditions grow colder D. As conditions grow warmer E. Both B and C
E. Both B and C - As one moves closer to the poles - As conditions grow colder
Which of the following would best be described as a climatic event? A. Hurricane B. Blizzard C. Drought D. Earthquake E. None of the above
E. None of the above
From the graph in figure 2 {2}, which of the following weather events appears to be occurring with greater frequency and causing the greater damage? A. Tropical cyclones B. Flooding C. Wildfires D. Winter storms E. Severe storms
E. Severe Storms
Which subject is not covered by the working group on the physical science basis for climate change?
Ecological Responses
Which of the following is an example of a short-term climate feature?
El Nino
According to Dire Predictions, where was the 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000?
Europe
How many ice ages occurred in the past 2 billion years of Earth's history?
5
How many ice ages occurred in the past two billion years of Earth's history?
5
What confidence level do scientists typically require to conclude that a result of a given experiment or study did not occur purely by chance?
95%
According to recent studies (Doran, 2009 and Cook et al., 2013), what fraction of climate scientists agree that global average temperatures have increased in the past century due to increases in man-made atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations?
97%
Which Milankovitch parameter is on a 41,000 year cycle? A. Obliquity B. Precession of the equinoxes C. Eccentricity D. None of the above
A. Obliquity
In dendrochronology, the scientist wants to choose a tree that: A. is growing in an area that relies on precipitation for existence B. is growing by a stream C. is growing by a lake D. there is no preferred location of a tree for the dendrochronologist to sample
A. is growing in an area that relies on precipitation for existence
Which of the following is NOT true about chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12)?
ALL of these are true -they cause long-term depletion of stratospheric ozone -they are greenhouse gases -they have a global warming potential many times greater than CO2 -they are non-toxic refrigerants
About how far back in time does the proxy record of changing climate from ice cores extend?
About 800,000 years
A GCM with a lower T number, will have higher spatial resolution.
False
El Nino is considered a weather event, rather than a climate event
False
In the Hadley Center's regional climate model, the land area of the United States does not include Florida.
False
Models show that rainfall will decrease almost everywhere on Earth by 2100.
False
Observations that fall into the tails of a normal probability distribution are referred to as standard deviations.
False
Which of the following is NOT a factor in the development of Urban Heat Islands? A. Sky view factor. B. Setting aside of "open space" C. Point and mobile sources of heat and pollution D. Increasing population and construction E. Paving of land for city streets
B. Setting aside of open space
The C cycle consists only of transfers of carbon between the atmosphere and plants and animals.
False
The National Weather Service issues forecasts for long-term climate conditions.
False
The climate shift illustrated in this probability of occurrence graph will result in a greater number of extreme weather days.
False
True or False? Average annual maximum temperatures in Florida have increased continuously (year to year) since 1900.
False
Climates may best be defined as: A. The day-to-day changes in temperature and moisture we see in the Troposphere B. The prevailing set of weather conditions at a place over a number of years C. The day-to-day changes in temperature and moisture over a year's time D. The prevailing set of weather conditions at a place over one decade E. None of the above
B. The prevailing set of weather conditions at a place over a number of years
Which of these climate controls would most likely have the fastest impact on climate change? A. Movement of continents due to plate tectonics B. Urban Heat Islands C. Change of the Earth's tilt D. Earth's rotation slowing down with days getting longer E. All of the above would cause the climate to respond in an equal time frame
B. Urban Heat Islands
Currently, Polaris is our "North Star". According to Milankovitch theory, which star will be our "North Star" in the future? A. Alpha Centauri B. Vega C. Proxima Centauri D. Polaris will ALWAYS be the "North Star"
B. Vega
Which Milankovitch parameter seems to be a factor evidenced in the Vostok ice core? A. Obliquity B. Precession of the equinoxes C. Eccentricity D. None of the above
C. Eccentricity
What is true of the last 30 to 40 years in terms of climate change? A. Major weather events appear to be getting more frequent but cause less damage B. Major weather events appear to be getting less frequent but more costly C. Major weather events appear to be getting more frequent and causing more damage D. Major weather events appear to be getting less frequent and are causing less damage E. Climate change does not appear to be occurring
C. Major weather events appear to be getting more frequent and causing more damage
Palynology involves: A. the study of ice cores B. the study of tree rings C. the study of pollen D. the study of varves E. the study of still existing geomorphic features
C. The Study of Pollen
What greenhouse gas has the largest radiative forcing?
CO2
5 mya
Fluctuating temperatures -Series of warmer and cooler periods -125,000 ya had temperatures similar to now -Carbon dioxide was lower, but temperatures were warmer
CO2 weathering feedback
CO2 combines with rainwater to make a weak acid, which erodes mountains and rocks which releases calcium, magnesium, and potassium into the rivers which flow into the oceans, which combine with the ocean water to make the ocean more acidic so some fish live shorter lives/can't live at all.
The amount of global average surface temperature warming generally thought to have occurred since 1850 is about:
0.8 degrees C
Describe some personal, local, or regional mitigation actions to reduce climate change impacts.
1) Use energy wisely 2) Drive less; walk and bike more 3) Reduce; Reuse; Recycle 4) Landscape wisely; plant trees 5) Use renewable energy 6) Think globally: act locally 7) Use Energy Star products*
Earth's short term climate history
1) Younger Dryas: Cooling Dip, 14,000 years ago 2) Medieval Climate Anomaly: Warm Spell, AD 800-1200, mild climatic episode that affected the North Atlantic 3) The Little Ice Age: Chilling Out, AD 1250-1850 temperatures cooled globally from volcanic activity/multiyear changes in global oscillation patterns Warming steadily since
Maunder Minimum
1645 - 1715--period of low sunspot activity that corresponded to the Little Ice Age in Europe
Dust in the Vostok ice core seems to increase in association with: A. Colder temperatures and ice ages B. Warmer temperatures and interglacial (non Ice age) periods C. Due to a stronger Polar Front jet stream D. Both A and C E. Both B and C
D. Both A and C - Colder temperatures and ice ages - Due to a stronger Polar Front jet streams
Which of the following is an example of a(n) macro-scale climate control? A. Urban heat islands B. Existence of a mountain range or large water body C. Changes in natural vegetation D. Distribution of oceans and continents
D. Distribution of oceans and continents
56 mya
Distinct period of warming, theories include a sudden increase in atmospheric carbon from a) Melting methane hydrates in the ocean This took place in about 20,000 years (much slower than today)
The uncertainty with which our models predict the global average temperature resulting in 2100 from any particular RCP is about:
2 degree C
Pleistocene Epoch began
2.5 million years ago
According to the IPCC, what was the most important radiative forcing factor for climate from 1750 to 2011?
Greenhouse gases, CO2 (60%)
18O
Heavy oxygen
What are the main sources of carbon dioxide?
Human activities: fossil fuel combustion (70%), biomass burning, removal of forests, industrial agriculture, and cement production
We are currently living in which geological time period?
Quaterernary
Which of these scenario results in the highest CO2 concentrations in 2100?
RCP 8.5
70 mya
Rapid Warming, followed by gradual cooling Much warmer in the distant past Tropics extended
If you want to predict the climate in Miami in the year 2050, you would best use a:
Regional Climate Model
Which of these is NOT one of the basic steps in constructing a general circulation climate model?
Running the model with different sets of initial conditions
According to the Skeptical Raptor blog, which of these represents the highest quality type of source of evidence to use in making a scientific argument?
Secondary reviews published in high quality journals
Mechanisms of Natural Climate Fluctuation
Solar variability Earth's orbital cycles Continental position and topography Atmospheric gases and aerosols
Second most important radiative forcing factor for climate from 1750 to 2011? (IPCC)
Tropospheric ozone (Others are stratospheric water vapor, contrail cirrus clouds, and black carbon on snow)
Climate model simulations must include both natural and human factors to best represent the observed pattern of surface warming.
True
Goddard Institute for Space Studies uses a supercomputing cluster to run models for the IPCC report.
True
In precipitation mode, a Doppler radar used by the National Weather Service can produce nearly 1 billion points of data per day.
True
Models show that rainfall will be generally greater than present day in the tropics by 2100.
True
Most models project temperature increases that will be higher over land than over water.
True
One big challenge in working with big data is indexing them so that you can find them in an archive.
True
How does the period of 20th century warming differ from past warming periods over the past 8,000 years such as the medieval warm period?
Warming is now occurring globally, across all regions
Which statement best reflects model predictions of precipitation trends over the next century?
Wet regions will get wetter, dry regions will get dryer
What are the international actions being taken at present to delay the effects of global climate change?
Worldwide, many large urban areas are working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Both governments and businesses are now planning for climate change impacts.
ice-albedo feedback
a feedback mechanism that accelerates melting of sea ice and amplify warming
carbon sink
a forest, ocean, or other natural environment viewed in terms of its ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Keeling Curve
a graph made over the span of 50 years that shows the increase of carbon dioxide
Oxygen Isotope Analysis
a method of deciphering past temperatures based on precise measurement of the ratio between two isotopes of oxygen, 16O and 18O
What is an interglacial?
a time interval when glacial ice volume was relatively low
Which is the appropriate time-scale that describes the cycles of climate change that occur in response to the Milankovitch cycles?
about 10,000 to 100,000 years
Relative to day, what was the global average temperature 55 million years ago?
about 12oC warmer
What is the median estimated eventual (equilibrium) global average temperature that would result from a doubling of atmosphere CO2 concentration? (estimated using modern instrumental observations)
about 3 degrees C
The planetary albedo of the earth is:
about 30%
Which of these is NOT true of the 'List of References Cited' section format required/suggested according to the Allen 2000 paper?
additional sources not cited in the text should be included if they may be helpful to the reader
The percentage of energy reflected by an object or substance is called its:
albedo
Limited observations hinder our ability to observe trends in which of the following phenomena?
all of these -hail - floods -tropical cyclones
The underlying purpose of the set of different emission scenarios (RCPs) is to
allow us to more easily compare the results of different climate models
Credence should be given only to scientific assertions that satisfy ALL EXCEPT:
are thought true by a majority of people
Which of these was a new element incorporated into the models used for the 2007 IPCC AR4 as compared to the 2001 models?
atmosphere chemistry
Which is NOT true? The input of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere:
began at the start of the 20th century
Which is NOT true? The input of Anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere:
began at the start of the 20th century.
Which of the following would we expect to see on a map depicting a seasonal forecast?
chances of experiencing above-normal conditions
What are Milankovitch cycles?
changes in Earth's orbit and orientation to the Sun
Milankovitch cycles include all of the following except:
changes in the distance between the Earth and the moon
Milankovitch cycles include all of the following, except:
changes in the distance between the earth and the Moon.
What kind of data would have had to have been used to construct the temperature record in the figure below?
chemical proxies found in sediment layers
Surprisingly, the Earth has a greater albedo than the Moon. This might be because the Moon has no:
clouds
General Circulation Models
complex mathematical models that use supercomputers to analyze and make quantitative predictions of future climate change
Which of these is NOT a primary goal of climate modeling?
condense large amounts of data into summary parameters
The IPCC is mandated to do all EXCEPT:
conduct research to better understand the causes and effects of climate change
halogenated gases
containing flourine, chlorine or bromine these gases are produced only by human activities ex. CFCs, (CFC-11 & CFC-12) ex2. HCFCs (HCFC-22)
A reduction in ice cover would be expected to ______ Earth UV reflectivity and represents a _______ feedback to global warming.
decrease, positive
Which of these is NOT one of the 3 general types of models?
elemental
According to Dire Predictions, which is true of the 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000?
events such as this will occur more often given AGW
With what likelihood does the AR5 IPCC assessment state that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming from 1951 to 2010?
extremely likely
According to Kitchin, big data exploration represents the _____ paradigm of science
fourth
When a research proposal is funded, half the amount granted by the federal agencies will generally:
go to the researcher's institution
What does one call the smallest unit used in any climate model?
grid cell
Of the excess energy stored by the Earth during the past half century, the majority of it has gone toward
heating the ocean
Greenhouse gases:
help maintain Earth at temperatures at which life can exist
The possibility that future human CO2 emissions will produce a scenario similar to the RCP2.6 is
highly uncertain
The primary external drivers of a planet's climate involve all EXCEPT:
how much of the solar energy is received in the northern versus southern hemisphere of the planet
Dire Predictions lists key features of the actual climate that current models do a good job of reproducing. Which of the following is NOT in that list?
hurricanes
Which of the following has not been used as a source of paleoclimate information?
igneous rock
When it gets warmer and more water evaporates, would be a logical result?
increase cloud formation which is a negative temperature feedback
According to Dire Predictions, what might happen that would cause the ocean's conveyor belt to shut down?
increased rainfall would mean surface waters would be less salty and would not sink
Proxy Methods
information about past environments that represent changes in climate
Which of the following conditions has low relevance when running a general circulation model?
initial conditions
According to Dire Predictions, there is a likely strong association between the increase in sea surface temperatures and global tropical cyclone
intensity only
Which is TRUE? Albedo:
is high for ice, snow and thick clouds
The radiation emitted by Earth:
is primarily absorbed by the atmosphere
Which is NOT one of the reasons the Vostok ice core is so famous and scientifically important?
it is the only record of variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations through a number of glacial/interglacial cycles
Satellite observations of recent decreases in stratospheric temperatures are important because they:
lend further support to the theory that GHG increases are causing global warming
The proxies that are mainly are used to reconstruct the climate changes that have occurred over the whole of the Quaternary Period are:
mainly stable isotope measurements in marine or lake sediment cores
Which of the following statements best describes climate during the past million years?
many climate swings occurring on thousand year time scales.
Which of the following is FALSE?
nearly all regions of Antarctica ice sheets have decreased in thickness over the last few decades
A system that regulates itself depends upon:
negative feedbacks
According to the Southeast Climate reading on rainfall, which region of the U.S. has experienced the greatest increase in very heavy precipitation
northeast
Future climate:
numerical prediction using GCMs
If one wants to know the oxygen isotope signature of seawater in the past they could examine:
oxygen isotopes in marine plankton skeletons
climate feedbacks
processes that either amplify or reduce climatic trends, toward either warming or cooling
Earth's long-term climate can be described as
quasi-steady, with long periods of hothouse eras punctuated by (geologically) brief ice ages.
RCP6 is a scenario in which, by the year 2100, __________ will be 6 times that of the early 20th century.
radiative forcing
If atmosphere CO2 concentrations were held constant, over the next century average global temperature, would likely
rise another 1 degree C
Approximately how far back in time can one investigate climate change on Earth using tree rings?
several thousand years
An actual "greenhouse" works because:
short wave lengths of energy pass through the glass but longer ones can't
The majority of the energy received by the Earth from the sun is ____, whereas that emitted by the Earth is____ radiation.
shortwave, longwave
Which of these is NOT true?
solar activity remains constant over century timescales
The RCP (emission scenario) that is mostly to occur depends upon all EXCEPT ......
solar output variability
Scientists use _________________ to establish climate records for sea surface temperature from the fossils found in oceanic sediment cores
stable isotopes
According to the Southeast Climate reading on temperature trends, what happens to Florida during El Nino winters?
temperatures are below normal
radiative forcing
the amount of change in thermal energy that a given factor causes
Climate sensitivity refers to
the amount of warming that would occur from a given change in a climate driver
Climate sensitivity refers to:
the amount of warming that would occur from a given change in climate driver.
For modelers, the term 'Climate sensitivity' specifically refers to:
the amount of warming that would occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2
carbon budget
the balance of the carbon exchanges between carbon sinks and sources
What phenomena is thought to have triggered the general cooling trend from about 30 million years ago to the present?
the development of the Antarctic circumpolar current
Atmospheric gases and aerosols
the greenhouse effect varies in strength naturally over time from volcano & ocean floor vent CO2 emissions. Volcanic eruptions can lead to large changes in climate by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere which increases albedo so the Earth receives less insolation.
Climate consists of all of the following, except:
the high temperature for a given day
Climate Change Science
the interdisciplinary study of the causes and consequences of changing climate for all Earth systems and the sustainability of human societies
Paleoclimatology
the study of natural climatic variability over the span of Earth's history scientific study of the climatic conditions of past geologic ages
Dendroclimatology
the study of past climates using tree rings
From the Dire Predictions reading this week, where is it predicted that heat wave frequency will increase the least?
the tropics
During the last 800,000 years:
there has been a pattern of roughly 100,000-year cycles of climate change.
In the mid-1970's, the popular media reported that an ice age was eminent. This occurred for all these reasons EXCEPT:
this was the concensus view among climate scientists at the time
Tree Rings
tree growth is influenced by climate conditions, patterns in tree rings and isotopic composition of matter within each ring reflect variations in past climate *Wider rings suggest good growing conditions
As one goes further back in time in the climate record...
uncertainty increases and resolution decreases
Which of these is most certain in regards to global climate change?
unusually rapid warming has occured over the past century
With what confidence level does the AR5 IPCC assessment state that the global average troposphere temperature increased from 1951-2010?
virtually certain
What example is given for a mathematical model?
volume
Most of Earth history can be characterized by average climate conditions that are
warmer than today.
How does the period of 20th century warming differ from past warming periods of the past 8000 years such as the Midieval Warm Period?
warming is now occurring globally, across all regions
Citations do NOT need to be provided for which of the following?
well-known arguments or theories
Natural sources of methane
wetlands, termites, oceans, hydrates
Which of these is NOT an uncertainty in regards to global climate change?
whether humans are responsible
If your hypothesis is rejected, which is true?
your experiment may well have been a success
Last glacial maximum
~20,000 years ago Warming since
Earth's 'climate sensitivity' to a doubling of atmosphere CO2 concentration is now judged to be in the range of
1.5 to 4.5 oC
Earth's 'climate sensitivity' to a doubling of atmosphere CO2 concentration is now judged to be in the range of:
1.5 to 4.5 oC
The last glacial period ended about ________ years ago.
10,000
Last glacial period
110,000-11,700 years ago
The Holocene is a geological time interval that began about
12 thousand years ago
Factors in climate change include:
All of the above - Natural changes - Human-induced changes - Long-term changes in weather
Which of the following is an example of an anthropogenic (human-caused) climate control? A. Urban heat islands B. Changes in natural vegetation C. Air pollution D. All of the above E. None of the above
All of the above - Urban Heat Islands - Changes in natural vegetation - Air pollution
Which is correct? Climate:
All of these are correct
Which of the following is NOT true about CFC's?
All of these are true
Which of the following is NOT used to evaluate science faculty when considered for tenure by university administrators?
All of these are used -mentorship -service -teaching -research
Which of the following is NOT one of the major organizations that assemble global instrumental surface temperature data into models showing global temperature variation over the past century?
American Meteorological Society Climate research center
Carbon isotope analysis
Analysis of the proportion of 12C and 13C in a bone or soil sample. Useful in dietary and environmental reconstruction because different groupings of plants use carbon compounds containing 12C and 13C differentially. Each decomposes by a half-life.
Where on Earth have scientist drilled the longest ice cores?
Antarctica, Dome C core in 2004 reached a depth of 3270 m (10,729 ft).
carbon source
Anything that releases more carbon than it absorbs i.g. humans clearing forests, producing carbon dioxide--Keeling curve Oceans absorb a lot of carbon which acidifies it-increasing carbonic acid
The most sophisticated atmosphere and ocean submodels are known as
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)
Oxygen isotope analysis is most commonly performed on which type of proxy data? A. Varves B. Ice cores C. Tree rings (dendrochronology) D. Palynology E. All of the above
B. Ice cores
In terms of Obliquity, what characteristic is favorable to ice age formation? A. Greater tilt B. Lesser tilt C. Obliquity is NOT a factor in the development of ice ages
B. Lesser Tilt
Which Milankovitch parameter is a non-factor when our earth is near-circular in form? A. Obliquity B. Precession of the equinoxes C. Eccentricity D. None of the above
B. Precession of the equinoxes
If Earth had less axial tilt, what would the affect be on our seasons? A. Seasons would have greater variability B. Seasons would have lesser variability C. There would be no change because seasons are not caused by axial tilt
B. Seasons would have lesser variability
Speleothems
Collective term for the dripstone features found in caverns, calcium carbonate (CaCO3) mineral deposits
50 mya
Generally started to cool, theories include absorbed carbon dioxide by the Himalayas
Long-term proxy methods
Gives information from hundreds of millions of years ago. Proxy indicators of ice-core data, sediments, corals, ancient pollen, tree-rings, ALL FOSSILIZED. Also oxygen isotope analysis and ocean sediment cores
Short-term proxy methods
Gives information from hundreds or thousands of years ago. Proxy indicators of carbon-isotope analysis, tree rings, lake cores, speleothems, and corals, all alive and collected today.
A pattern or relationship that genera lies a large body of observations but do not propose to explain them is a:
Law
16O
Light oxygen
When ONLY heavy oxygen (18O) remains in the ocean water,
Light oxygen (16O) must be in the glaciers and ice sheets which means you were in a cold, GLACIAL CLIMATE
When both 16O and 18O occur in the ocean water, and there is more 16O present in it,
Light oxygen returned as runoff to the oceans in a warm, INTERGLACIAL CLIMATE
Which of the following was NOT used by Kitchin (2014) to define big data?
Limited in scope
Why is methane a more potent greenhouse gas as compared to CO2?
Methane is 25 times more efficient at trapping atmospheric heat/longwave radiation, making its global warming potential higher
Earth's Orbital Cycles
Milankovitch cycles--3 parts 1) Orbit changes shape-100,000- year cycle. 2) Axis wobbles (precession)--26,000-year cycle 3) Axial tilt varies from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees--41,000-year cycle
Wildfire feedback
Occurs as warming temperatures and drought lead to increased wildfires, which increases greenhouse gases, especially CO2 and methane. This enhances warming, leading to larger and more intense wildfires.
Which index is used to display the global pattern of drought in Dire Predictions?
Palmer Drought Severity Index
Radioactive Isotopes
Such as carbon-14 are unstable and decay at a constant rate measured as a half-life (the time it takes half the sample to break down)
solar variability
Sunspot activity in time frame of decades Varies from 1 to over 200
According to the Skeptical Raptor blog, which of these is NOT a "red flag" warming that the testimony of a scientific expert should NOT be trusted?
The "expert" lists many of their own credentials such as awards from professional organizations and number of citations
water vapor feedback
The net effect of increasing water vapor in global warming. More evaporation leads to higher humidity, accelerating greenhouse warming