Chapter 4: Confirmation Bias & Cognitive Biases

Confirmation Bias:

"The tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with one's existing beliefs." - Largely unintentional - Believe what you want to believe - Often results in ignoring inconsistent information - Often occurs when an issue is highly important or self-relevant One of the most engaged bias is when one favors ideas that align with their beliefs and knowledge. This is seen in sources that strengthen and justify what one believes about the subject and sticking to what strengethens their point. By ignoring the other side, we ignore all sides of the story.

5 Barriers to Critical Thinking:

*Trusting Your Gut:* Making a snap judgment without basis in fact or reality, believing that it is true for you. *Lack of Knowledge:* When one does not have enough knowledge of the truth of the topic. *Lack of Willingness:* When one does not have the willingness to seek the truth / understanding on the topic. *Misunderstanding of Truth:* When one sees their truth as the truth when the truth is not truly understood. *Closed-mindedness:* When one is closed-minded they disregard the truth and its search for it;

The Sunk Cost Fallacy:

- I have to get something for what I put out! A belief that one should get something of what they put out. When one puts in effort, time, or money, they believe they should get something in return. When one does not get anything in return, as something is lost that is irreversible, or unable to be recovered, and still going after it is an illustration of the sunk cost.

Practical Application of Confirmation Bias:

- Numerology, etc: Finding the meaning you're looking for... - Medicine: Focuses on cases that confirm the hypothesis... - Science: Holding onto theories after discredit... - Media: An example could be college sites showing positive statistics, things the faculity/staff see in the college, and display them, especially in the local newspaper or media.

The Fundamental Attribution Error:

- One tends to attribute others' wrongdoing to their person/character/personality & when one does wrongdoing, it is attributed to circumstances outside of you. This occurs when one finds justification through excuses for personal failure, not others. This is seen when one justifies blaming other people and/or their characteristics for their failures. An illustration of this is when a driver in front of one is driving somewhat unpredictably and dangerously, then sees they are female, or fit another stereotype and ties it up to their belief, they disregard the fact, or new information unbeknownst to them she has three kids to drive to practices and left work late.

The Curse of Knowledge and Hindsight Bias:

- The inability to see what it is like to be a beginner again. - Looking back, you see clearly what you think after is what you saw before. This occurs when one truly understands new information and generalizes this information. The generalization occurs as the newfound information becomes obvious to the point one may forget they did not know it before and assumes others know this too. The Hindsight Bias is like the Curse of Knowledge in the sense that upon gaining information about the event, one should have seen it coming, as it was apparent it would happen after all.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect:

- The more you know, the less/believe you think you know. The instance where one with a low understanding of a topic assumes their knowledge is greater than it is. It also occurs in the opposite manner, where an expert underestimated their high understanding. Through this sense, the greater the knowledge one has, the less confident they are due to caution.

The Decline Bias (Declinism):

- To consistently think the past is better, especially when things are going downhill. This is based on the favor of the past in comparison to the current status quo. When things change against what people wish, one must change the way they think. This inability and aversion to changing one's thought processes reflect declinism. Also, it may be demonstrated by a member of an older adult expressing gripes along with the words of, "Back in my day, it was like this, now things are getting worse..."

In-Group Bias:

- Treating others unequally as your group & yourself. This bias fits with the fact that one tends to be forgiving when making self-judgments, as seen in the Self-Serving Bias and Fundamental Attribution Error. This happens when one unfairly favors one in their group. Evolution plays a role as it can be advantageous to prefer and protect those alike you, like in kinship and lineage.

The Forer Effect (The Barnum Effect):

- Vague, generic statements or predictions are applied specially to you. When processing information, one prefers to understand it nice and neat, as people prefer information lining up with their schemas. Here, ambiguous information is read as unique to oneself. This allows one to process it better.

Negativity Bias:

- Weighs the cons as greater than the pros. Distinct from Pessimism Bias, it works along the lines of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, as a reflection of one's hatred of losing. When one decides, they typically think based on the outcomes of positive or negative. The bias is evident when one weighs the cons over the pros of an outcome.

The Backfire Effect:

- When people are presented with evidence against their beliefs, they believe more strongly. This refers to a belief being strengthened even after it being challenged, hence the backfire of clinging onto it regardless. This has an analogous foundation as The Decline Bias, as people dislike change, and the Negativity Bias as losing is unideal. Both factors come together to stay loyal to the belief, however, if there is enough evidence against certain facts one tends to abandon it.

Self-Serving Bias:

-Things go well = I did that! -Things didn't go well - They did that, (I did not do that!)! This bias serves oneself when things go right, though blames others when things go awry. When a student fails an exam and believes the teacher hates them, this is one example of attributing failure due to others. When the student aces the next one because they studied despite that teacher, this is another instance of self-serving bias, towards the success they did themselves.

Principles for avoiding confirmation bias:

1) Be open-minded 2) Ask honest questions 3) Consider multiple perspective/explanations 4) Consider evidence that disconfirms 5) Give evidence its proper weight 6) Conduct the relevant research 7) Analyze the research objectively and draw conclusion

Forms of Confirmation Bias

1) Considering only one hypothesis for outcome. Ex: Undone laundry, blame someone. 2) Seeking evidence that confirms rather than disconfirms a hypothesis Ex: Only reading anti not pro materials 3) Giving more weight to evidence that confirms a hypothesis than disconfirms. Ex: Tarot readings as full truth. 4) Giving greater weight to evidence that supports one beliefs. Ex: How well on remembers something based on if it supports their position. 5) Seeing what one is looking for. Ex: What they like, are personally attached to, and so on...

Biases are very common and everyone at one time or another...

Falls prey to them.

Confirmation Bias, cont. Capital Punishment Experiment and 2008 Obama/Amazon study:

The summary of the capital punishment experiment and findings found the students found studies confirming their beliefs more convincing and better conducted, regardless of their viewpoints and exposure. The 2008 study found during Obama's running for president, the left purchased and read pro-Obama, and the right bought and read anti-Obama.

Optimism/Pessimism Bias

This thinking error is based on emotions and one's mood or disposition. (+) When one is in good spirits, they tend to overestimate positives. (-) While one is down, they tend to overestimate negatives.