Conflict and Polarization Final
Superdelegates
- 1980 DNC gives party leaders formal delegates at convention (~15-20%) - not bound by how their state had voted - supporters of outside candidates attacked "superdelegates" - DNC responded by limiting their voting power
The Doctrine of Responsible Parties
- ASPA scholars argued that a policy-based party system would be preferable - believed that current parties were letting democracy down. (voters have no real choice)
Has the American Public changed since Converse?
- Fiorina: sees that the mass public is dominated by moderate, non-ideological citizens, but elites are polarized - yet more people are self-identifying with the ideology of their party - increased ideological sorting - conflict extension
President as the leader of the Party ("modern" Presidency, 1900-1950s)
- Presidents gain control of the national party organization - President can speak on behalf of the party - President sets the party's policy era
Converse: "The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics"
- To what extent is the American public ideologically coherent and sophisticated? To what extent can we interpret elections as conferring an ideological mandate? - Prerequisites to be ideologically sophisticated: correct use of ideological terms, predictable connections between general ideological labels and specific issue positions ("constraint) - found a very small group of people who qualify as ideological - widely thought that the public was politically uninformed and unsophisticated
Key developments in the rise of the current media age:
- Vietnam and Watergate discredit club journalism (realizes they had been lied to and that people in power are not necessarily trustworthy) - Fairness Doctrine is repealed (now political commentary does not need to be balanced) - Rising popularity of cable television (more niche programming) - internet
1968 Democratic Convention
- Vietnam splits the party - most party leaders loyal to Johnson and Humphrey - Humphrey chose not to run in any primaries - anti-war delegates and protestors cause a scene - DNC decides they need to reform the Presidential nomination process
McGovern-Fraser Commission
- charged with reforming the Democratic presidential nomination process; up to the voter, not the leaders - requirements: states must choose delegates via an "open" process (not bosses), delegates should be pledged to specific candidates and awarded in proportion to their shares of the vote - influenced the Republican party as well
What is polarization?
- definition needs to include idea of changing over time - involves some sort of divergence, moving towards the poles in politics - means multiple conceptually different things
Southern Politics by V.O Key Jr.
- described the "solid south" that existed from Reconstruction to 1960s - a region dominated by a single party is a failed form of politics (no discipline exerted on the Democratic Party, no true choice) - South the poorest and most rural at this time
Responsible Party Doctrine in Retrospect
- didn't see that parties would become more negative - prevalence of divided government - less corruption, we see Civil Rights
Democrats at the New Deal Era
- dominant party electorally - people are not Democrats because they are liberal - Dixiecrats in the South (pretty conservative, based on Civil War legacy)
How does media nationalization polarize?
- fewer citizens consuming media from a local source - national and international sources dominate - people focus on national politics more than local
What were parties like before polarization?
- government much smaller, fewer responsibilities - parties internally factionalized - party organizations fueled by patronage, spoils system
urban machines
- government operations met the needs of the party - high levels of political participation - immigrant integration - politics as a public spectacle - strong parties (no secret ballot) - not ideologically polarized
Different definitions of polarization
- increasing ideological extremity - increasing ideological sorting by party - increasing scope of policy disagreements (conflict extensions) - increasing party strength and party-line voting in the electorate (partisanship) - increasing procedural hardball in government - increasing match between party/ideology and other important social identities (social sorting) - increasing partisan divergence in factual beliefs and informational sources - increasing emotional conflicts in politics
Republican party at the New Deal Era
- many believed the only way forward was to accept larger government - "modern Republicans" reckon with the reality that voters want larger government
Why were experts concerned about a decline in partisanship?
- more gridlock, dysfunctional government - want high turnout and participation - how do you know what directions the voters want to go in? - loss of trust in government and parties? - popular vie that television and increased coverage made politics more superficial
era of muckrakers and the professional "club" (1920s-1970s)
- muckrakers wanted to improve quality of journalism (accuracy over partisanship) - "club" journalism: close relationship between journalists and politicians in power to mutual advantage
Era of the partisan press (1780s-1910s)
- newspapers openly partisan - every news story had the potential to have a partisan slant
Era of specialization, fragmentation, and nationalization (1980s to present)
- not just ideological specialization, but differences in content too - move from local to national and international sources
Barry Goldwater Nomination
- one of the first times in history where strongly identified ideological partisan is nominated - Goldwater promoted extremism - lost badly in general, foreshadowed future success
Lilliana Mason, Uncivil Agreement
- parties have been socially sorted - Tajfel's intergroup bias theory - partisanship can now be thought of as a mega-identity - partisanship comes before policy preference in determining feelings towards party - individuals much more likely to be intolerant of the other party if they have multiple aligned identities (more anger with the other side) - our sense of attachment, not ideology, drives political participation - will parties fraction? can we focus on superordinate identity? contact theory? - party ID related to other identities and creates stronger emotional divide (and vice versa) - don't need ideological polarization to have the other kinds
President as Distinct from the party ("postmodern" presidency)
- party factionalism limits the president's power within his party - weak parties, modern media allows the President to cultivate personal support across party lines - preference for neutral competence
President as the leader of the party, party II ("partisan" presidency)
- president as the unquestioned leader of the party - decline in quality of relationship with opposition leaders in Congress - aggressive advocacy of party agenda - polarizing figure
Sources of polarization within the presidency
- primary voters - interest groups and ideological media - executive branch appointments - members of Congress - party
decline of the machines
- progressive movement attacked party "corruption" and "incompetence" via reforms (patronage system, secret ballot) - open the door for a new way of defining differences between parties - New Deal created much larger government and inspired modern ideological movements (people begin entering politics because of ideology) - polarizers motivated by policy, not power
Party attachment
- psychological attachment to a political party expressed as a personal identity or as a membership - does not necessarily match with party registration or candidate choice - important because: most citizens develop one, tends to be stable once formed, affects nearly every type of political activity
Why are women less likely to run?
- qualifications (not so true now) - ambition and confidence - social roles - recruitment
The President as the agent of the party (19th century)
- relatively weak political power - Congress took the lead on policy-making - Presidents were in charge of implementing spoils systems on behalf of the party - Presidents were often denied nominations
Politics of Resentment (Kramer)
- rural consciousness: identity, feeling victim of a sort of grievance - belief that policymakers ignore rural areas - belief that rural areas do not get their fair share of resources - rural folk have fundamentally distinct values - resentment about the lack of power compared to urban individuals, politicians being tone deaf to those problems - public employees perceived as lazy/inefficient/recipients of undue benefits/guilty by association of the government/represented by greedy unions - belief that government regulation is unnecessary and all taxes go to urban areas
Abramowitz and Ideology
- sees less of a disconnect between elites and mass public - notes that the growth of polarization is also associated with increased political engagement - also rewards partisan divisions and gridlock in government
How can party leaders influence nominations?
- steer money and organizational resources to favored candidates - encourage disfavored candidates not to run or to drop out - make public endorsements
Federalist Society
- supports a literal/originalist reading of the Constitution - federalism is conservative: commerce clause limits the power of the federal government - created to find an alternative to liberal orthodoxy in law school curriculum - need to vouch for conservatives and build their own community - focus on training and shaping its members through intellectual engagement, networking, facilitating opportunities
Do women govern differently?
- tend to be more to the left, not dramatically - more of a focus on healthcare and education - more collaborative, more likely to work across party lines
What about non-white attidues?
- tends to be more liberal in general and on race - social identity, linked fates, social solidarity play roles in maintaining the Democratic loyalty of minority voters
Are US elections more geographically polarized?
- typical state is less competitive - size of electoral battleground is shrinking - decline of split-ticket voting
Fiorina and ideology
- voters are not ignorant, but are moderate, independent-minded, pragmatic, free of ideological dogma - still suggests that concerns about health of representative democracy are valid, given increasing ideological extremity apparent among elected officials
Party Resurgence
-parties in electorate are as strong as they have been in modern history (party-line voting, decline of split-ticket, most independents are party loyal leaners, rising antipathy)
Reasons for Party Realignment in the South
1. Civil Rights Movement and national parties' divergence on racial issues 2. Migration to the South from the North 3. Greater economic prosperity and national integration 4. Mobilization of social conservatives and evangelical Christians within the Republican Party
Why does Political Geography matter?
1. First past-the-post electoral system (geography as the basis, country divided into electoral units) 2. The cube rule translating votes to seats (tend to win more seats than you do votes, ratio of (Votes for A)^3/(Votes for B)^3, difference gets bigger faster the larger the vote difference, some seats are safe, others are competitive) 3. Equal apportionment of the Senate 4. The unit rule in the electoral college 5. Closely matched national parties in the current era of American history
Limits to media's role in promoting polarization
1. Limits of citizen exposure, attention, and comprehension 2. mainstream outlets are still the most popular news sources 3. most Americans consume a varied media diet 4. "preaching to the choir" is more common than "converting the unbelievers"
Different explanations for change over time in terms of religion and partisanship
1. Period effect (opinions across generations moving together) 2. Life-cycle effects (has to do with individual life experiences that you experience as you age) 3. Cohort effects (generational change, people of different generations come of age at different times)
Chris Bail's argument for social media
1. See the prism and understand how it distorts our identities 2. learn to see ourselves through the prism and monitor how our behavior gives the prism power 3. learn to break the prism by changing these behaviors and discovering how to engage in more productive conversations
Consequences of Geographic Polarization
1. Smaller battleground in presidential elections and less partisan competition in non-presidential elections 2. tighter connections between presidential and congressional politics and between state and national politics 3. greater ideological polarization in government
How do media messages polarize?
1. Transmit polarized elite messages to citizens 2. Use authority to promote ideological/partisan content with selective facts and "facts" 3. Discredit alternative sources of information 4. Cover politics through a frame of partisan competition and ideological conflict
Why isn't there a viable centrist party?
1. Voters' partisan ties are stronger than ideological loyalties 2. "Moderates" don't all agree politically among themselves 3. Parties need activists, and moderates are less active. 4. American governmental and electoral institutions favor a two-party system (winner-take- all elections, "spoiler" effect, ballot access, electoral college, no coalition executive)
Reasons for growing urban/rural divide
1. differences in racial composition 2. differences in education attainment and economic industries (diploma divide, different kinds of jobs) 3. differences in religious affiliation and cultural attitudes 4. Urban self-assurance vs. rural resentment)
Three Aspects of White Identity
1. how important is being white to your identity? 2. to what extent do you feel that white people in this country have a lot to be proud of? 3. How much would you say that whites in this country have a lot in common with one another?
Consequences of Presidential Nomination Reform
1. shifted power of nominations from organizational leaders to other actors (media, interest groups) 2. changed strategic incentives for candidates (need to be involved in primaries) 3. allowed "outsiders" to win nomination 4. inspired the call for even more reforms
Race splits Democratic Party
Backlash in the white South after the integration of the army; 1948 walk-out at the Dem convention in response to Truman; Truman and successors worry about moving too fast on race
Why is there a partisan skew among female politicians?
Demand side explanations: differential voter receptions (voters see women as more liberal, helps Ds), emphasis on descriptive representation in the Democratic party Supply side explanations: Democratic advantage among college-educated, professional women, party differences in interest group leadership and recruitment efforts
Two different causes of mass party polarization
Either changing your party to match your policy preferences, or changing your policy preferences to match your party
Why did "moral issues" become so polarizing in the 1990s?
Emergence of Clinton and HRC who are seen as new/hip/young feminist. Republicans couldn't go after the economy, so they went after him culturally
Concerns over Partisanship (1960s)
Experts concerned with the weakness of partisanship: less people identifying as D or R, increasingly common to vote for candidates of the other party, increase in split-ticket voting, drop in level of political participation
Barry Goldwater and "Southern Strategy" on race
Goldwater as one fo the few Republicans against the Civil Rights Act (too much federal power), first Republican in 100 years to carry Southern states; Southern whites open to switching parties
Economic Realignment of the 1930s
Great Depression and FDR response produced major change in party platforms and bases of support; transformed Democrats to the party of big government
"New Deal realignment" on race
Great Migration begins, Democrats part of segregationist South, Roosevelt's party includes segregationists and northern black voters
Great Society
Medicare, Medicaid, additional federal housing programs, expanded federal role in education, increased transportation funding, expansion of social security, "war on poverty"; not major Republican opposition
Mixed system nominations
Presidential primaries introduced in 1912, most delegates still selected by state party organizations, basically "beauty contest primaries," most candidates thought that running in the primaries was unnecessary, as the machines fall, more ideological people take charge
What is the answer for the gender gap?
Probably not one single explanation; gender politics is not a perfect parallel to racial politics
Differences in terms of religious affiliation in terms of party
Protestants more Republican; Mormons very Republican; non-Christian people are Democratic; "nones" now are mostly Democratic
Reagan Revolution
Republican party less supportive of additional initiatives to expand the government, lowering taxes and reducing regulations
Civil Rights movement in the North
Republicans play on idea that Civil Rights moves too fast and shouldn't be applied in the North
"New Deal Coalition" in Democratic Party
Southern Whites (already D, poor), Catholics and Jews (poor), urban workers, labor union members, African-Americans (economic reasons), liberal intellectuals, farmers and miners
"Great Polarizers" (Activists)
They pay closest attention, vote at highest rates, donate money and time, build interest groups, receive attention from the news, some become candidates
Can party ID form political beliefs?
Yes, usually formed prior to substantive policy knowledge; many citizens adopt ideologies/policy positions after they have chosen a party
social solidarity pressure
a lot of this is about social interaction and pressures that promote and enforce party loyalty within minority communities
anti-New Deal coalition
business owners and managers, wealthy citizens, suburban and small town "bourgeoisie;" Republicans had a hard time running against the New Deal
Cultural Argument of the Gender Gap
claim: women are more Democratic than men because they are more culturally liberal, influenced by the feminist movement and to seek an equal social status to men (but why did it appear in the 1980s and what explains the marriage gap?) - women less likely to view gender equality on being achieved - more likely to identify as feminists - joining the workplace, Reagan, 70s social movements - married women are more traditional, influence of husband, age difference
The Economic Argument for the Gender Gap
claim: women are more Democratic than men because they are more liberal on economic issues - women are more liberal and more in favor of bigger government - not only differences in valence of issues, but also in salience - Reagan, separation of parties on economic issues - unmarried women have a sole income, less traditional roles, age
"Diploma Divide"
difference in voting and partisanship between those who graduated college and those who did not; generally see that income is correlated with education; non-college whites now heavily Republican
Policy preferences for the economy:
differences about what policy the government should pursue in the realm of economics and how much the government should intervene economically (conflict)
Civil Rights Act of 1964
dismantles system of Southern segregation; passes with strong support from Ds and Rs (strongest opposition from southern Democrats)
Who drives elite-level polarization on cultural issues?
driven by feminist activists within the Democratic party and evangelicals in the Republican party
Voting Rights Act of 1965
enfranchised black voters in the South; white segregationists won't always win D primaries now, white voters may shift to the Republicans; southern Democrats that get elected now are much more progressive on race
sources of party identification
family socialization, peer group socialization, social identity (what kinds of people are Ds/Rs?), political climate during "age of crystallization"
Racial resentment
foundation is the assumption that not only do minority groups not suffer from oppression, but they have also gotten advantages that they don't deserve; whites as the "victim" of newer racial policy; growing correlation between resentment and other political attitudes
"God Gap"
gap between religiosity (how religious you are, not your specific religion) and partisanship (Republican)
Racial conciousness
idea of oppression and identifying threats to the group in addition to political mobilization
implicit racial attitudes
idea that some people can be prone to racial discrimination without even being aware of it; conditioned to you by upbringing, media, symbols in politics
The Convention System
in place from 1830s-1910, vote openly at conventions for nominees, rare for a candidate to get a majority on the first ballot, get chosen by your state party to be e delegate (under influence of party leaders in your state), often chosen by party leaders who tell their delegates who to vote for, tended to be people who party leaders thought could be "winners", compromises between factions leads to obscure nominations
overt/old-fashion/Jim Crow racism
innate/biological superiority of one race over other races, justifies hierarchical social organization
Two politicized divisions after the 1960s in terms of religion and morals
lifestyle (sexuality, drugs, crime, guns, "family values") and role of religion in the public arena
Secularism
logic and reason as a basis for human understanding; natural law instead of supernatural law; belief system in its own right; one can be both secular and religious; commitment to science and objective evidence; more Democratic
Marriage Gap
married women more likely to be Republican than unmarried women
Gender Gap in Presidential election
men are more likely to vote Republican, women more likely to vote Democratic; used to be a bigger turnout gap because biggest predictor of turnout is education
Is abortion a "woman's issue?"
no consistent gender gap on abortion (more associated with moral traditionalism)
Race and the Republican Party post-New Deal
no population putting pressure on civil rights either way; should they move to the right or left of Dems?; many in favor of social equality but don't want more regulations; up until Civil Rights Act, the question of which party would be more progressive on civil rights
Who are white identifiers?
older, women, less educated, Southern, rural, evangelicals, Republicans
dimensions of "economic ideology"
presence/importance of socioeconomic inequality in society; active v. limited government; domestic policy issues
Congressional caucus system
prior to 1828, members of Congress would get together and choose who the party would nominate for President, came under attack for being elitist
Why are women underrepresented in elected office?
question of unequal supply - female candidates elected at the same rates as men - less likely to run in the first place
National performance (economics)
question where there presumably aren't two sides, no one wants a weak economy (consensus)
Political approach to race
race as a political issue like any other in which citizens adopt ideas and policy views promoted by authorities (exposure to arguments, messages affects your opinion)
Social Psychological approach to racism
race as an elementary form of social identity that primes emotion and group favoritism over knowledge and reason
Racial politics before 1932
tended to be an issue primarily in the South; most African-Americans lived in the South, when they could vote, they voted for the Republican party, race is generally not an issue that either party liked to talk about or raise at the national level
linked fate
to what extent do I think my own individual fate is connected to that of my group? (Democratic party is looking out for Black people, as a Black person, it is in my interest to vote for the Democratic party)
New Deal Expansions
unemployment benefits, job creation, anti-poverty programs, social security, old-age pensions, union organizing rights, housing programs, aid to farmers, regulations and taxations of businesses
What do white identifiers believe?
view "Americans" with more exclusionary boundaries, have in-group favoritism, generally glad to be white, linked to perceptions of group competition, believe whites are discriminated against; tend to be against "welfare" and Medicaid (seen as Black), higher support for spending, opposition to affirmative action; far less likely to vote for Obama, vote for Trump
