ECN360: Chapter 6
Seven Negative Consequences of Population Growth
1. Economic Growth: pop growth lowers GNI and experience pressures on natural resources 2. Poverty and Inequality: consequences of pop growth lies mostly on the poor bc of cuts I govt programs 3. Education: large family and low income restrict opportunity to educate all children (edu expenditures spread more thinly) 4. Health: harms the health of mother and children (health risks during pregnancy) 5. Food: harder to feed everyone so we need new tech to do so 6. Environment: forest encroachment, deforestation soil erosion, declining animal stock, etc. 7. Intl Migration: legal and illegal, this falls on the recipient population of the migrants
Three areas of policy can have important indirect and direct influences on the wellbeing of present and future generations:
1. developing country govts can initiate and influence and control their population growth and distribution 2. lessen their disproportionate consumption of limited world resources and promote a more equitable distribution of the benefits of global economic progress 3. intl assistance agencies can initiate to help developing countries achieve their population objectives
Three Stages of Modern Population History
1. stable or very slow growing populations bc of high birth and death rates (almost equal) 2. (modernization) public health methods, healthier diets, higher incomes and other improvements lead to a decreased mortality and increase life expectancy (high birth rates, low death rates --> pop increase) 3. forces and influences of modernization and development cause a decline in fertility (low birth rates, low death rates --> pop stable)
Three realistic policy goals in addressing population growth issues
1. to limit further growth we must deal with the variable of population along with underlying social and economic conditions of underdevelopment. 2. bring about smaller families through development-induced motivations, family-planning programs providing the education and tech to regulate fertility 3. developed countries should help developing countries by providing contraceptives, family-planning clinics and cutting back the unnecessary consumption of product using nonrenewable resources.
crude birth rate
The number of live births per year per 1,000 people.
hidden momentum of population growth
The phenomenon whereby population continues to increase even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population's base of potential parents. there is two reasons for this: high birth rates can't be altered over night, and age structure
Under 5 mortality rate
The rate of deaths occurring in children under 5 years of age per 1000 live births.
youth dependency ratio
The ratio of the number of people 0-15 to those 16-64 years of age
Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility
The theory that family formation has costs and benefits that determine the size of families formed. we use an indifference map to show the tradeoff of goods consumed by parents and the number of desired children
every year, more than 75 million people are being added to the world's population
almost all of this net population increase (97%) is in developing countries
The Extremist Argument: Population Growth and Global Crisis
assumes that all of the worlds economic and social evils are the results of excessive population growth over population is the cause of poverty, low levels of living , malnutrition, ill health, environmental degradation and all other social problems
Demand for Children in Developing Countries
children in poor societies are seen as economic investment goods, basically this means they are expected to help provide and to care for parents in their old age the opportunity cost of a mother's time and opportunity cost of educating the children are all considerations for the "marginal child"
Simple Model
demonstrates the adverse consequences of rapid population growth is a simplification of the standard Solow-type neoclassical growth equation y-l = a(k-l) + t
Population Pyramid
graphic depiction of the age structure of the population developed countries have a higher population in the middle of the pyramid creating a diamond shape developing countries have a higher population at the base, making a triangle figure
Empirical Evidence with Fertility
high female employment opportunities outside of the home and high attendance during primary and secondary education are associated with lower fertility. this can also lead to decreased child mortality, so a higher number of surviving children
underdevelopment (other problems causing population issues)
if correct strategies are pursued and lead to higher levels of living, greater self esteem and expanded freedom population will take care of itself underdevelopment is the issue here
Criticism of the Malthusian Model
ignores the enormous impact of technological progress in offsetting the growth- inhibiting forces of rapid population increases the assumption that national rates of population increase are directly (positively) related to the level of national per capita income focuses on per capita income as the principal determinant of population growth rates when a more accurate variable is the microeconomic principle of family size
Population Growth is a Desirable Phenomenon
it can stimulate economic development more people provide more opportunity to develop land and areas that can yield profit and GDP for the nation
Malthusian population trap
low-level equilibrium population trap the threshold population level at which population increases were bound to stop bc life sustaining resources (which increase at an arithmetic rate) would be insufficient to support human population (which increases at a geometric rate)
Geographic Region (world pop. structure)
more than 3/4 of the world ppl live in developing countries
Population Growth Findings:
most population growth will occur in developing nations most population growth will be in Africa india will be the world's most populous country by 2028
Population Distribution
not the number of people but their distribution in space is the issue some areas are under populated bc they have so much space while others are overpopulated bc they have a smaller space
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age specific fertility rates
Population Growth: Past, Present, Future
percentage growth rates peaked in 1970, with only foreseeing it taking 33 yrs to double the population reasons such as famine, malnutrition, plague, war and disease make it difficult for population growth bc of a high mortality rate. However, economic policies and technology today bring down the mortality rate making it easier to double in size.
Three facts about population growth
pop growth is not the primary cause of ow levels of living, extreme inequalities or limited freedom of choice the problem of population is not only about numbers but involves the quality of life and material well being rapid population growth does serve to intensify problems of under development and to make prospects for development that are much more remote
Fertility and Mortality Trends
pop increase in developing countries depend almost entirely on the difference btwn the crude birth rates and death rates birth rates in developing countries 15-45% birth rates in developed countries less than 15% things that lower the death rate: vaccinations, public health facilities, clean water, improved nutrition, and public education
Age Structure and Dependency Burdens
population in the developing world is relatively youthful workforce in developing countries must support almost twice as many children compared to wealthier countries problem in developed country is the low population growth and old age dependents
World Resource Depletion and Environmental Destruction
population is only a problem relative to availability and utilization of scarce natural and material resources developed countries with less that 1/4 of the population use 80% of the resources
demographic transition
process in which fertility rates eventually decline to low and stable levels the phasing out process of pop growth rates from a virtually stagnant growth stage characterized by high birthrates and death rates through a rapid-growth stage with high birthrates and low death rates to a stable low growth stage where birth and death rates are low
Family Planning Program
public programs designed to help parents plan and regulate their family size
Doubling Time
relationship between annual percentage increases and the time it takes for a population to double in size prd that a given population takes to increase by its present size
life expectancy at birth
the average number of years a newborn baby could expect to live if current mortality trends were to continue for the rest of the newborn's life
reproductive choice
the concept that women should be able to determine on an equal status with their husbands and for themselves how many children they want and what methods to use to achieve their desired family size
natural increase
the difference between the birth and death rate of a population
net international migration
the excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country
rate of population increase
the growth rate of a population, calculated as the natural increase after adjusting for immigration and emigration
replacement fertility
the number of births per woman that would result in stable population levels
death rate
the number of deaths each year per 1,000 people
Lowering Fertility in Developing Countries will be best when...
the population and lower majority benefit from a lower fertility rate an increase in education for women and an improvement in their role and status increase in employment opportunities and wage increase for women redistribution of income from the wealthy to the poor increases income for low income families reduction in infant fertility through expanded health care programs and better nutrition development of retirement programs to support the parents in old age expanded schooling opportunities to replace number with quality
Subordination of Women
their inferior roles, low status, poor education, limited social mobility and restricted access to birth control are manifested in their high fertility therefore population growth is the natural income of the women's lack of economic opportunity
Population Growth is not a Problem because
there are other issues more important and causing more damage population growth is a false issue deliberately created by dominant rich countries and institutions to keep developing countries in their dependent condition population growth is actually desirable
Theoretical Argument: Population-Poverty Cycles and the Need for Family-Planning Programs
too rapid population growth yields negative economic consequences intensified and exacerbated the economic, social and psychological problems associated with underdevelopment
The structure of the World's population is....
unevenly distributed by geographic region, fertility and mortality levels, and by age structures
