ENST 333

________swarm northward in warming world

• AP story Michale Casey • Chesapeake bay jellyfish??- people are stung 500,000 times every year- may get worse with warming • Seeing increases in algal and plankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes • Climate most important factor controlling biodiversity in canadian lakes • Warm water species of plankton and fish will flourish and cool water forms will diminish or disappear • Especially blue green algae- tolerance for high temperatures- can be toxic to humans and fish • Rapid growth can cause eutrophication- DEAD ZONES

Global warming impact on Polar bears

• As ice melts must go further for food • Many populations make their dens on sea ice • Physique has changed- thinner females • Normal triplet births now single births • Numbers have declined in 4 of 19 sub-populations populatons and remained stable in 3 others. Data not complete on other populations • Some populations more land based and less affected • Overall populations up since 1960s when over hunting curtailed • Bears put on endangered species list- bush didn't' change actions on global warming including CO2 emissions

Greenhouse gases and warming- how does this process work?

• Certain gases absorb infrared radiation CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCS o Very important! o Shorter wavelength light and UV radiation penetrate atmosphere to surface o Heats surface o Heat generate longer wavelength infrared radiation o Reradiated from surface and absorbed by these gases o Causes temperature of surface and atmosphere to increase • Important key- increasing quantities of gases increases the warming - The Greenhouse effect

precipitation climate change

• Changes in precipitation, increased drought • Significantly increased precipitation in easter parts of North and South America, northern Europe, and northern and centural asia Important- higher temperatures evaporates moisture from wet land, leading to more precipitation Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas- consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapor Drying increasing in the Sahel (South of Sahara), the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern asia More intense and longer droughts- observed since 1970s, in tropics and subtropics Changes in precipitation has occurred in many areas • October 2009- wettest month on record- Eastern Shore Chesapeake Bay • Cycle- wet spring and wet fall but summer drought • Important in Bay- hard to get on fields to plant but little rain during growing season But drought is increasing especially in most dry to semi dry places Very important- effects of global precipitation changes NOT CONSISTENT. Global climate change does not cause same effects everywhere.

Appropriate Responses of Economics

• Elimination of subsidies that promote excessive use of ecosystem services • Compensatory mechanisms for poor people who are adversely effected by these subsides • Takes or user fees for activities with external costs (ie taxes on excessive use anad application of nutrients and carbon tax or carbon cap to limit CO2) • Payment for ecosystem services o Paying countries not ot cut down rain forest to maintain diversity and sequester CO2

Pentagon Report: US military considers climate change a threat multiplier that could exacerbate terrorism

• Immediate strategic threat- cause instability in countries by: • Impairing access to food and water, spreading disease • Damaging infrastructure, restricting electricity availability • Uprooting and displacing large numbers of people • Compelling mass migration • Extremist ideologies may arise in regions where governments are destabilized due to climate related stressors • US house voted to bar defense department from spending money to evaluate how climate change would affect military training, combat, weapons purchases, etc.

Further changes in arctic and frozen ground

• Important- Annual average arctic sea ice extent arctic sea ice extent very likely to shrunk between 3.5-4.1% per decade and decreases in summer 9.4-13.6% per decade- 2012 the least amount of sea ice since we started measuring • Important- High confidence- temperatures at top of permafrost layer generally increased since 1980s by up to 3 C o Decomposition- methane release (potent global warming gas) Maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground has decreased by 7% in northern hemisphere since 1900, in spring up to 15% Arctic sea loss- why is melting so important for global warming?- ice is white- reflect s 80% of sunlight that hits it back into space dark ocean surface- 90% of sunlight absorbed which warms arctic ocean luxury passenger cruise traversed arctic's northwest passage for FIRST TIME National snow and ice data Arctic se ice extent for June 2015 averaged 11 million square km, 3rd lowest june extent in satellite record Glaciers continue to shrink- Global glacier cumulative volume change • 2015 snowpack in sierra Nevada at 500-year low

Seeing shifts in forrest distribution

• Important- areas for growing crops also shifting north- wheat and corn growers may lose some southern areas but will be able to farm a full 10 degrees north of their current limit, less than 2 degrees south of the Arctic Circle, Siberia will become a major notch in wheat belt Satellite imagery reveals earlier reenign of vegetation in spring linked to longer thermal growing season

Approprite response of Knowledge

• Incorporation of nonmarket values of ecosystems in resourcemanagement decisions • Use of all relevant forms of knowledge and information in decision-making • Enhanced human and institutional capacity for assessing the consequences of ecosystem chane for human well-being and acting on such assessments

Millenial Assessment Appropriate Respones responses of Institutions

• Integraton of ecosystem management goals within brodre development planning frameworks • Increased coordination among multilateral envirionmental aggreements • Increased transparency and accountability of government and private sector performance • Greater involvement of stakeholder sin decision-making

Global warming impact on birds

• Many birds depend on ice. Many spend entire life in arctic. • Seeing warming of lakes nd rivers with effects on thermal structure and water quality • 80% of lakes and rivers in different states are thawing earlier each year in some cases as many as 20 days earlier • average springtime temeratures in those same regions have incresd by almost 1.5C since 1920 • lakes in northeast were covered with ice on average 20 days less than 70 years ago • seeing earler timing of spring events, such a leaf unfolding bidr migration and egg-laying • Examples • United kingdom- birds laying eggs earlier •

Ecologist ID'd 1st genetic adaption to global warming in North American mosquito (Wyeomyia smithii)

• Modern mosquitos wait 9 days more than their ancestors did 30 ya before begin their winter dormancy with warmer autumns being most likely cause • Higher temperatures, enhancing mosquito survival rates. Population growth and biting rates can increase the risk of DISEASE TRANSMISSION • Very important- the question of so what concerning global warming effects o the planet and its ecosystems are becoming more difficult to ignore when evidence is building that these changes effect HUMAN HEALTH and NOT just ECOSYSTEMS

Appropriate responses of Technology

• Promotion of technologies that enable increased crop yields without harmful impacts related to water, nutrient, and pesticide use • Restoration of ecosystem services • Promotion of technologies to inceras energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emisisons • Paris Agreement- landmark global agreement

Anthropocene epoch

• a name for a new epoch in earth's history • currently in Holocene epoch for last 12000 years • human activities have become so profound and pervasive that they exceed the forces of nature in influencing the functioning of Earth's system A. Unprecendented changes in structure and function of ecosystems worldwide

Unprecendented changes in structure and function of ecosystems worldwide

• a name for a new epoch in earth's history • currently in Holocene epoch for last 12000 years • human activities have become so profound and pervasive that they exceed the forces of nature in influencing the functioning of Earth's system A.Unprecendented changes in structure and function of ecosystems worldwide a.Coral reefs b.Mangroves c.Amount of water in reservoirs- quadrupled since 1960 d.Withdrawlas from rivers and lakes- doubled since 1960 e.Mostly from conversion to agriculture*** f.Biochemical cycles i.Flows of biologically available nitrogen NO2 in terrestrial system doubled since 1960 ii.Flow of biologically available phosphorous tripled iii.60% increase in CO2 in atmosphere g.continued high rates of conversion even though some ecosystems are recovering to reconversion rates h.homogenous species on earth due to travel i.ballast waters ii.humans increasing species exticiton

Mauna loa observatory in Hawaii Scripps Institute of Oceanography

•2013- 1st measurements ever of CO2 over 400 ppm recorded here! •2016- worldwide CO2 levels will average 400 ppm for 1st time! •Methane and nitrous oxide- reaches 1833 parts per billion and 327.1 ppb respectively. Both rose at fastest rate for a decade

Volacanic aerosols

•Aerosols- finely divided solid or liquid particles dispersed in the atmosphere •Intercept and scatter incoming radiation, therefore less reaches surface, less heating. Has a cooling effect on the atmosphere! •Important- eruptions episodic and effects transitory (1-2 years) •Also, when dark particulates fall on snow, increase heat absorption/warming!

Antarctic Larsen Ice Shelf Breakup 2002

•Arcitc sea ice cover increased 1.2-1.8% per decade by high arctic sheet (land ice) increased dramatically •Why I land ice melting so important?- water from land ice into oceans is new! •Important- due to differences in wind current. Affect Antarctica much more than arctic since Antarctica surrounded by open ocean rather than mostly land like in the arctic.

Other adaption responses to global warming- important! Know a few!

•Building levees and dykes around cities- New Orleans and Katrina •Moving people out of low-lying coastal areas- entire India Delta?? •Switching to more drought tolerant agricultural crops •Increasing use of irrigation in crop production in drought areas- too much irrigation leads to salinization of soil! Dry wells! •Installing snowmaking machines at ski resorts •Conserving biodiversity- some argue we need more zoos! Is this instead of saving natural habitats!!! •Maintaining landscape CONNECTIVITY to aid vegetation and wildlife migration •Reducing habitat fragmentation •Actively managing species that can adapt to climate change •Important TRADEOFFS!- eg greater use of irrigation in crop production could reduce the amount of water available for other human uses and natural systems

Human and natural drivers of climate change

•CO2, CH4, N2O concentrations far exceed pre-industrial values increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities •Relatively little variation before industrial era •*Important- deep ice cores from poles, analysis of gasses like CO2 from gas bubbles •Important- CO2 changes and climate changes have progressed in approximate synchronicity over past 800,000 years!

Direct observations of recent climate change

•Combined land and ocean linear warming trend- 0.85 C (0.65 to 1.06) from 1880 to 2012 •Larger than corresponding trend of 0.6 C (0.4 to 0.8) given in 2002 third assessment report •Average ocean temperature increased to depths of at least 3000 m- has absorbed 80% of heat added

Global warming impact on Bowhead whales

•Feed on minute sea creature like krill (crustacean) •Krill and other food species •Form base of arctic food web •Depend on sea ice habitat! Feed at bottom of ice sheet •Why is ice melt important here?- changes in habitat- most ice may be gone by 2050 of these smallest creatures could affect the entire ecosystem •2015 published study by british anatartic survey and Plymouth marine laboratory- used models based on equations which link krill growth, sea surface temperature, and food availability •research suggests marine birds are declining in number but the cause is unclear. Loss of habitat?

Projecting of future changes in climate

•For the next 2 decades a warming of about 0.2C per decade projected for a range of emission scenarios •Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases are aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be expected. Scary! 2014 record CO2- Important! •Earlier IPCC projections of 0.15-0.3 per decade can bow be compared with observed values of 0.2- our models are working and early predictions are accurate! •December 2012 paper by frame and stone- predictions from 1990 - assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change •IPCC accurate in predicting temperature rise tend even without a number of external radiative forcings that we know now •Why? Important!- greenhouse gas induced forcing overwhelm all others!

What have we been doing about CO2?

•Important- not very much! •Worldwide- spewing more CO2 than the worst case scenario •US CO2 emisison down 2.8% since 2008 because of bad economy, less energy used •US CO2 emissions continue to decrease from power plants- switch from coal to much cheaper natural gas- this is what is causing decrease in coal usage!

Appropriate response of Social and Behavioral

•Measures to reduce aggregate consumption of unsustainably managed ecosystem services •Education and public awareness programs •Commitments by industry to use raw materials that are form sources certified as being sustainable •Improved product labeling - societal values! •Communication and education about degradation of ecosystem services and possible solutions •Empowerment of groups particularly dependent on ecosystem services

The important risk of Greenland ice melting

•Melt water drains through surface cracks to bedrock •LUBRICATES ice sheet •Speedy flow of the sheets to ocean. •More melt = more water - faster movement to ocean- MORE WATER TO OCEAN FASTER •Jakobshavn glacier ice berg calving (splitting) between august 6-16 •Ice berg large enough to cove island of manhattan in nearly 1000 ft of ice •2015 report- Zachariae isstrom Greenland glacier melt rate has increased since 2012, now losing 5 billion tons per year •glacier the size of Maine, if completely melts it will raise global sea levels by more than 18 inches!

A Palioclimatic Perspective

•Palioclimate information supports interpretation that the warmth of last half century is unusual in previous 1300 years •Last time polar regions were significantly warmer than present for extended time (125000 YA) reductions in polar ice volume led to 4-6 meters of sea level rise •Important- generally thought that natural global climate change takes place over millennia rather than 100 years as seen today •2C per millennium may have during the retreat of glaciers following most recent ice age •extremely important- 100 yrs not much time for Evolutionary adaptation

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increasing acidification of the ocean and other associated problems

•pH scale not linear, but logarithmic! •Very important- most of the CO2 entering the atmosphere through human activities dissolves in the oceans, increasing dissolved CO2 and carbonic acid concentrations- release of H+ and thus lowers sweater pH (more acidic) and carbonate ion concentrations •Why important? oLower pH and lower carbonate ion concentration mean shell dissolution and reduction in shell formation of organisms like corals, phytoplankton, and zooplankton with shells like crustaceans and molluscs- all are important organisms at base of food chain! •Important- oceans sequester CO2 but at what cost (lower pH) and for how long?

Fire

a. Used for i. Clear forests for agriculture/industry ii. Improve grazing for domestic animals or attract game iii. Expedite travel (clearing for roads) iv. Smelt ores v. Make charcoal 1. Haiti! b. Natural causes of fire i. Lighting strikes ii. Spontaneous combustion- natural composting iii. Sparks c. Effects of fire on vegetation i. Increases species diversity * ii. Needed for normal succession* iii. Assist in seed germination iv. Alters seedbeds v. Release seeds and simulates vegetative reproduction vi. Control forests, insects, parasites, and fungi vii. Simulates flowering and fruiting viii. Release of mineral elements after fires d. Process of seeds being released from cones i. (add later) i

grazing

a. light grazing i. Bison in North America ii. increases species diversity like fire iii. nibbling encourages vigor and growth of plants iv. seeds spread efficiently by cattle uts and rich dung v. passage through guts increses nitrogen in grazed pastures b. heavy grazing i. reduced size of soil aggregates ii. eolian deflation- removal by wind iii. accelerates soil deterioration and water erosion iv. kills plants v. reduces photosynthesis vi. weeds- opportunistic but unpalatable plants that come with reduced completion when palatable plants are destroyed

incidence of______ in US has quadrupled in last 2 decades due to climate change

asthma • Ragweed grown in conditions with 2x CO2 produces 60% more pollen • Elevated CO2 levels also promote growth and sporulation of some soil fungi that are human allergens • Diesel particles help to deliver these aeroallergens deep into our alveoli • Global warming and wider fluctuations in weather help to spread diseases. Important

representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

based on increased greenhouse gas emissions and their effects on total radiative forcing as we move toward 2100 and beyond •Current total radiative forcing is 2.29W/m^2 •These are results of the decisions we make on controlling GHCs and hence global warming •Increased forcings are then modeled to make projections •RCP2.6- the lowest of the 4 peaks at a radiative forcing of 3.0 W/m^2 but then declines to 2.6 by 2100. This is the best scenario and represents a worldwide decision to begin reducing GHG now •RCP4.5 (medum-low) stabilizes after 2100 at 4.2 W/m^2 •RCP 6.0 -medum-high- stabilizes after 2100 at 6.0 W/m^2 •RCP8.5 highest reaches 8.3 W/m^2 my 2100 on a RISING TRAJECTORY •RCP8.5 would be much like today's world, major dependence on fossil fuel. Little global cooperation on controlling greenhouse gas emissions •This is important because each year we continue to set new record on greenhouse gas emissions. We are now closer to this scenario than any other!

Radiative forcing (RF)

difference between incoming radiation energy and outgoing radiation energy Positive forcing- more incoming energy that tends to warm the system Negative forcing- more outgoing energy that tends to cool system Important- a greenhouse gas that has high positive RF absorbs more outgoing infrared energy per molecule and results in more heat buildup CO2 radiative forcing - 1, CH3 21, N2O 206, CFCs- 15000 Important- when corrected for volumes of gases produced the radiative forcing factors become CH4- 0.47, N2O 0.14, CFCs 0.25, Troposheric ozone 0.4, CO2 1.56 Other gases can be very imporotant baesd on radiative forcing factors especially when considered as a group Global average Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 - Important Total anthropogenic RF is 2.29 •It has increased more rapidly since 1970 than in prior decades •What is albedo? Measure of ability of surface to reflect radiation- higher%- more radiation reflected (snow 90%, rainforest 9%). Very complicated feedbacks, little confidence •0 change in solar irradiance since 1750, but total forcing was 1.6 in 4th report!

Inherently Leaky Ecosystem

energy, nutrients, ad individual organisms move in and out of ecosstems organisms tend to interact with other organims in the same ecosystems more than with those in different ecosystems example: Chesapeake Bay 1. Striped Bass- life begins in estuary. At one time Chesapeake bay was spawning ground for 90% of atlantic population move from ocean to tidal freshwater to spawn in late winter. are triggered by water temperature in spring in Chesapeake bay. After spawning, the mature fish return to the coast. They spend summer/early fall in middle new england near-shore waters. and in late fall/early winter migrate south off north carolina coast and virginia capes They use ecosystems: North Atlantic/Cetral Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay/Fresh 2. Blue Crabs Females with eggs migrate from main Chesapeake bay to mouth in Fall. Larvae (zoea) are released by females into high salinity waters near the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. The currents transport zoea along the ocean continental shelf where they develop through 7-8 distinct stages over 30-45 days.

Climate change skeptics arguments

erratic cooling periods medieval warm period (800-1200 AD) CO2 is from volcanoes not humans Changes in milankovitch cycle (changes in the Earth's orbit and tilt) The sun

societal values

how we view the value of ecosystem services • rapid growth in the demand for ecosystem services due to world population doubling since 1960 • actions need to be taken to meet these demands to provide more services

General effects of atmospheric pollution on plants

i. Acid rain- left areas barren or with severely damaged vegetation ii. Ground-level ozone and smog more damaging 1. Enter platns during normal gas exchange 2. Discoloration, damage, loss of leaves 3. Reduced photosynthesis 4. Increased vulnerability to pests, disease, and other environmental disasters 5. Hinders plants ability to store food, grow, and reporudce 6. Economic costs a. Premature aging and decrease in pollen lifespan- 10-40% of plant growth loss b. Reduced crop yields by 70 million/yr in Ontario canada c. Important since 60% of worlds food produces 60% of worlds air pollution

Strategies to reduce rate of deforestation*

i. Research, training, and education ii. Land reform- reduce pressures on landless peasants to deforest iii. Conservation of natural resources- national parks/ reservs iv. Restoration and reforestation v. Sustainable development- selective logging, nontree products, small-scale farming in plots within the forest vi. Control of the timber trade- taxes on imported tropical forest products. Outlaw sale of nonsustainable tropical hardwoods vii. Debt-for-nature swaps- set monetary value on ecological capital assests (forests) and trade for international financial debt viii. Education of local people ix. Careful control of international aid- so forests don't need to be destroyed x. Reducing demand for wood products- US!

particulate pollution

i. Very small solid or liqudid suspended droplets 1. Dust 2. Smoke 3. Aerosolic salts (airborne suspended) 4. Contains a. Insoluble omponents (eg quartz) b. Soluble components i. Commoon cations (+ charged aluminum and sodium) ii. Cholorde, floride, sulfate, and nitrate anions

4) Other human effects on vegetation

i.Land clearing in drylands ii.Most important problem of arid lands iii.Woodcutting effects around urban areas in Africa- wood and charcoal exploitation zone of Khartoum, Sudan b.Invasive plant species- getting worse the more we travel and ship goods! i.Economic group 1.Kudzu- erosion control ii.Dispersed accidentally 1.Ballast water- algae/phytoplankton/grasses 2.Crop seeds 3.Other plants 4.Road material 5.Drug plants

Tundra vegetation

increase both peak photosynthesis and growing season length between 1982 and 2003 Consistent with increase in CO2 and temperature

Biofuels- problems with ethanol

less corn for food and animals, more land use, more pollution (especially nutrients), questionable energy gain- destroying ecosystems

Threats of invasive plant species

loss of biodiversity weeds direct threats to native plants due to change of habitat (soil chemistry, sedimentation, hydrologic conditions- transpiration rates)

Regulating services

most DEGRADED (except climate regulation) o Regional and local climate regulation • Changes in land cover • Tropical deforestation • Desertificaiton • Forests put moisture back into the air through evapotranspiration oWater PURIFICATION and WASTE TREATMENT •Water quality declining globally though in most industrial countries pathogens and organic pollution of surface water has decreased in the last 20 years through environmental laws •N03 concentration in water increasing, toxic to humans o Air quality regulation oPEST REGULATION- replacement of natural enemies like ladybugs by use of pesticides POLLINATION- bee colony collapse • Natural hazard regulation- capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme events has been reduced through loss of wetlands, forests, and mangroves • People increasingly occupying regions exposed to extreme events • Getting worse as sea level rises!**

Haiti vs. Dominican Republic

natural gas vs. charcoal production to cook and tourism in Dominican republic

Key barriers to solutions to prevent ecosystem service degredation

o Corruption and weak systems of regulation/accountability o Market failures and misalighments of economic incentives o Social and behavioral factors, including lack of political nad economic power of groups who depend on ecosystem services r harmed by degreation- ie indigenous people of rainforest o Underinvestment in development/transfer of technology o Insufficient knowledge concerning ecosystem services- EDUCATION o Weak human and institutional capacity related to assemssment and management of ecosystem services

Provisioning Services

o food production doubling since 1960, food prices fallen o agricultural labor force 22% of population but 50% of labor force o 60% of ecosystem services degraded or unsustainably used o many provisioning serices degraded** • food- capture fishers down, crops and livestock up • eating lower on the food chain • capture fisheries o over 25% of commercially exploited fish stocks are overharvested o halved fish population since 1970 o tuna o marine mamals, birds, and reptiles fallen by 49% o We are now overfishing in the deep ocean!!! • fibers- wood fule down • fresh drinking water! • Many future conflicts over freshwater •

o 4 important points he stresses

o1. Degradation tends to lead to the loss of non-marketed benefits o2. economic value of these benefits is often as high and sometimes higher than the marketed benefits o3. The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversion o4. Conversion still occurs because PRIVATE economic benefits are often greater for the converted system • Examples of costs o Collapse of newfoundland cod fishery o Harmful algae blooms o Annual losses for extreme events • Floods, fires, and drought frequency and impact increased because of global warming???

Specific issues in dryland systems

oDevelopment prospects closely linked to good ecosystem services oLowest levels of human well-being oOnly 8% of world's renewable water supply o10-20% of drylands are degraded

Factors causing increase in likelihood of nonlinear changes

oLoss of species and genetic diversity decreases resilience of ecosystem oGrowing pressures from drivers like overharvesting, climate change, invasive species, and nutrient loading push ecosystem toward thresholds that hey might otherwise not encounter

Atmospheric pollution

plants are more sensitive than humans a. Gaseous pollutants i. Primary 1. SO2 (acid rain) 2. NOx 3. CO (carbon monoxide) 4. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) a. Hydrocarbons- methane most important VOC, which causes global warming and greenhouse gas effect! 5. ii. Secondary- products of photochemical reactions 1. Ozone (formed by interaction NOx, VOCs, and sunlight) 2. SMOG- mixture of zone, primary gaseous pollutants, and sunlight a. LA b. Beijing China- getting worse!

2016 CO2 emissions

record high- over 400 ppm for entire year!

eolian deflation

removal of soil aggregates by wind

Land surface temperatures (LST)

rising FASTER than Sea surface temperatures (SST) b/c water volume of seas are HUGE

Global warming debate might be moving into period of dramatic changes in...?

societal values Economics of the discussion may be shifting. There is a growing realization that delaying a response to the problem may be more economically costly than the possible solution- especially in regards to development of new technologies to reduce global warming gases!

People say it's the sun

solar irradiance has not changed in 11 years.

Anadromous species

striped bass spends most of their adult life living in the ocean, but migrate to rivers and streams to spawn

global warming has stopped since 1998!

temperature can fluctuate wildly from year-to-year- long term trends are what is important! 15 out of the 16 hottest years occurred since 2000 National Snow and Ice Data center since November 20th 2016- Antarctic sea ice extent decreasing

The medieval warm period (800-1200 AD)

warmer than current conditions. This means recent warming is not unusual and hence must be natural and non man-made 5th IPCC- continental -scale surface temperature reconstruction show, with high confidence, multi-decadal periods during medieval climate anomaly (950-1250) were as warm as in the late 20th century but didn't occur as coherently as in the late 20th century (high confidence) very limited data- used proxy's such as tree rings, ice core samples, coral reefs, etc. medieval warm period in fact warmer than today in many parts of globe like in North Atlantic but evidence also suggests that some places were much cooler than today including tropical pacific All in all when warm places averaged with cool places, overall warmth was likely similar to early to mid 20th century warming Also medieval warm period had known causes which explain both the scale of the warmth ad the pattern- there was higher than average solar radiation and less volcanic activity! same causes can't explain what we see today

Ecosystem

**Current definition: "Dynamic complex of plant, animal and microorganism communities and the nonliving environment interacting as a functional unit" physical and biological components of an environment as a single unit the whole system, including not only the organism-complex, but also the whole complex of physical factors forming what we call the environment functional organization and ecological energy flows and efficiency

Nonliving Environment

Chemical and physical factors including sunlight, rainfall, soil nutrients, climate, salinity, etc.

Equilibrium climate change sensitivity

Surface warming following a sustained doubling of CO2 concentrations =o modeling Best estimate 3C, likely 2-4.5C Very unlikely less than 1.5 C Higher values ruled out! Important

Observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems

associated with rising water temperatures, and change in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels, and circulation Important- Again, we are changing species distribution! Example- shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton, and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans Warm and temperate copepod species expanded ranges

3 major problems that may decrease long-term benefit

degredation of ecosystem services increased liklihood of nonlinear changes exacerbation of poverty for some people

Anomaly

departure from a reference value or long-term average Indicates that observed effect was greater than reference value

Important processes humans use that cause significant change to vegetation

fire grazing deforestation

Changing global carbon cycle

• CO2 concentrations stay above 400 ppm for all of 2016 and remain this way for generations • Hasn't happened since 5 million ya

Observed widespread warming

• July 2015- hottest july since records kept • 2015 hottest er ever • 2016 predicted to be even hotter • Important- extremely unlikely without external forcing very unlikely due ot know natural cause along

Why are the change in ice and sea ice so important?

•Snow cover contracts •Permafrost widespread increases in thaw depth- (methane released as organic material decomposes!!!) •Sea ice is projected to shrink in the arctic •Arctic late-summer sea ice projected to disappear by the latter part of the 21st century •Important!- may be seeing the "tipping point" •2012- the least amount of summer sea ice since we started measuring •new reports recent release of methane form melting Arctic ice- Important- methane hydrate (or methane ice), lattice like solid surrounded by frozen water molecules •why are we concerned about methane?- It's a powerful global warming gas!

deforestation

***one of the most important ways humans modify their environment a. Definition deforestation- the temporary or permanent clearance of forest for agriculture or other purposes b. Easter Island- destruction of culture c. Technology to cut the last tree- 10 billion trees lost annually of the 3 trillion trees on earth today d. SMALL patches vs. LARGE patches left of land- large tracts of forest must be retained not just small patches i. EDGE EFFECTS alter floral nad fauna of forests ii. Small patches differ ecologically from large tracts e.Causes of tropical deforestation i.Subsistence agriculture crops or livestock ii.Wood extraction iii.Mining iv.Building roads (cyclic) 1.Roads provide entry to previously inaccessible and often unclaimed land 2.Logging follows road expansion 3.After timber harvest, loggers move on 4.Settlers settle in cleared area 5.Slash and burn of forests to maintain cropland and cattle pasture v.Clearing for aquaculture 1.Mangroves- shrimp and rice 2.Large scale commercial farming for world market a.Amazon- cattle ranching, soy bean production, sugar cane for bio-fuel b.Indonesia- commercial palm tree plantations to produce biofuels c.State policies dictated by "world bank" for infrastructure expansion vi.Road building and urbanization

Long-term changes in climate observed at continental, regional, and ocean basin scales

1. Changes in arctic temperature and ice 2. Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns (100 yr storms) 3. Aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, and intensity of tropical pacific cyclone (hurricanes) global warming deniers- global warming stopped since 1998 temperatures can fluctuate dramatically from year-to-year, but long term trends important NOAA- 2015 the hottest sea surface annual temperature since we had kept records

5 key drivers of ecosystem services degradation

1. habitat changes- deforestation 2. climate changes 3. invasive species 4. over-exploitation 5. pollution of nitrogen and phosphorous, leading to eutrophication and deadzones

Three phases of cultural and technical development

1.Hunters and gatherers a.Tools b.Building shelters and clothing c.Omnivorous diet d.Discovery of fire e.Did not substantially alter the environment (Empty world!) 2.Cultivators, keepers, and metal workers a.Domestication of plants and animals- Agriculture** i.Irrigation- adoption of riverine agriculture- Egypt 5050 years ago. Riverine- constant flooding inputs new soil ii.Secondary application of domestication of animals 1.Plow and cart- more intensive farming and transportation of products 2.Development of fibers (sheep, goats)- commodity exchange 3.Animal milk- can occur in marginal and exhausted land b.Metal working- mining of ores and smelting of metals- 6000 BC Turkey, spread to Britain and northern china by 2500 BC c.Major towns d.Reduced space needed for sustaining each individual e.Deliberate sowing or other management of wild plants f.Fertile crescent 3.Modern urban and industrial society a.Important trends in human manipulation of environment in modern era- Why we can now talk about global environmental change i.Human dominated planet- powerful pesticides and nuclear reactors/weapons proliferate and effect the environment ii.Local environmental issues are now regionally and globally defined iii.Complexity, magnitude, and frequency of impacts are increasing iv.Increase in per capita consumption and environmental impact b.Ecological footprint •Definition: Amount of land area the human population hypothetically needs to provide the resources required to support itself and to absorb its wastes, given prevailing technology •Used to determine whether our current lifestyles are sustainable •A measure of demand on the earth's ecosystems •Includes - cropland, grazing land, forest, and fishing grounds required to produce the food, fiber, and timber it consumes, to absorb the wastes emitted in generating the energy it uses, and to provide space for its infrastructure. •The sum of all areas worldwide •Measured in global hectares per person 1.Largest ecological footprint in world- United Arab Emirates 11.9 hectares per preson 2.World average- 2.2 hectares per person c.Fossil-fueled machinery d.Modern science, technology, and industry applied to agriculture, especially synthetic fertilizers and herbicides/ pesticides e.Effects of mining rival natural process of erosion f.Effects of mineral extraction are extensive i.Extraction ii.removal iii.mineral concentration iv.smelting- extracting metal from ore v.refining g.Human domestication on geological scale h.Huge cities, large ecological growth i.Ships developed- increased human access to energy and lessened dependence on animals, wind, and water i.Sea going ships ii.Steam engine iii.Internal combustion engine (19th century) j.Development of major industries transformed environment i.Further reduced space required to sustain each individual ii.Modern science/ modern medicine accelerated population growth

Important- Climate change and cases of sea level rise

1.THERMAL EXPANSION (most important)- oceans warm up, their volume increase- causes sea levels to rise. Best estimate- currently represents 57% of total sea level rise due to climate change 2.Melting of glaciers and ice caps a. Currently represents 27.5% of total sea level rise due to climate change b.Important- arctic summer lowest coverage on record c.Although MELTING OF FLOATING SEA ICE DOESN'T AFFECT SEA LEVEL DIRECTLY by adding more water IT DOES: i.Reduce habitat for specific arctic organisms ii.Increase warming of surface water and thermal expansion due to reduced albedo iii.Must think globally not locally- Nigardsbreen glacier example- global warming not happening if only this considered d.Snow and ice on killimanjaro i.2009 study- glaciers on Africa's highest mountain have lost 85% of ice they had in 1912 with more thatn ¼ present in 2000 gone by 2007 ii.proceedings of national academy of science 1.similar changes a.mount Kenya and rwenzori mountains in afrcia b.glaciers in south America and the Himalayas 3.Ice sheets- Antarctic ice sheets represent 7.5% of sea level rise while Greenland ice sheets represent 7.5% of sea level rise a.Antartic ice sheets losing up to 36miles^3 of ice a year b.Important- if west Antarctic ice sheet and Greenland ice sheets collapse could raise sea level by 7 m c.Important study- Antarctic- November 2009, nature geoscience- larger eastern ice sheet lost 57 billion metric tons a year from 2002-2009! IPCC 4th indicated should remain same or grow! New satellite gravity technique. Floating ice has increased! Record amount in 2014. 4.Permafrost degradation and decomposition a.Melting of permanently frozen subsoil and run off of freshwater b.5th IPCC report- virtually certain that permafrost extent at high northern latitudes will be reduced as surface temperature increase c.new METHANE and CO2 release from decomposition an important unexpected effect! i.Isotonic adjustment - rebound from retreating glaciers as will be discussed in Chesapeake bay sea llevel rise video later ii.Tectonic movements- earth's plates iii.Fluid abstraction- suck out groundwater and land sinks d.Where processes cause subsidence the apparent sea level rise due to this has to be added to sea level rise caused by global warming i.Chesapeke bay- most land subsidence in Chesapeake bay do to glacial retreat! Important! ii.Since bay is such a LOW LYING AREA, the risk from sea level rise, especially coubled with violent storms, is great iii.Very important!- this is why the Chesapeake Bay has been ranked 3rd in risk form sea level rise behind Louisiana coast and southern florida! iv.Sea level rise in Chesapeake bay video- slide 9

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

1.increases in global average air and ocean temperatures a.more hot extremes than cold extremes! 2widespread melting of snow and ice 3 rising global mean sea level

Key impacts as function of global temperature change- Very important!

2 C is where we are 5C is worst case water •increased water stress from lack of fresh water increased water availability in moist tropics and higher lattitudes decreased water availability and incresased drought in mid-latitude and semi-arid low latitudes millions of people exposed to water stress ecosystems increased coral bleaching increased extinction widespread coral mortality species range shifts wildfire risks ecosystem changes due to weakening of meridional overturning circulation- gulf stream food complex localized negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fisheries productivity of all ceraels decreases in low latitudes cear productivity to decrease in some regions coasts increased damaged from floods and storms millions of more people experience coastal flooding each year 30% of global coastal wetlands lost health increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases increased morbidity and morality from heat waves, floods, and droughts changed distribution f some disease vectors substantial burden on health survices •deforestation in ecosystems- trees burned to clear land for cattle and soybean. Burning releases CO2 fewer trees mean less photosynthesis and carbon sequestration • important ecosystem services lost due to flooding and storms on the coasts • human health impacted fro m respiratory and infectious diseases

Very important- sources of CO2 by %

24% power 14% industry 14% agriculture- deforestation

Eventual temperature increase corresponding to different levels of stabilized CO2 in atmosphere predicted by current models

450 ppm- 50:50 chance of keeping global increases below 2C 550 ppm- 5050 chance of keeping increases below 3C- risky but far less risky than business as usual continue on our current CO2 emission path- models predict there's a 50:50 chance of eventual temperature rise above 5C

super typhoon Haiyan in Philippines-

6340 dead, 1.2 million homelss. 25th typhoon in phillippine area in 2013. Strongest typhoon to ever hit land. 200 mph winds, 25' storm surge!!!

Example of poleward and upward shifts in ranges of plant and animal species

Alpine plants retreat up mountains Range of American goldfinch may shift dramatically north and change in the distribution of neotropical migrant birds Neotropical- breed in NA in spring/early summer and winter in Mexico, the Caribbean, and central and south America

The importance of krill

Base of food web

How much CO2 would we need to add each year to go over 550 ppm?

By adding 2.5 ppm CO2 each year, we risk going over 550 ppm • Strong suggests that we should aim somewhere between 450 and 550 ppm CO2 • Important!: stern's economic analysis indicates that the cost of doing this would be substantially less than the cost of doing nothing and bearing the economic burdens of global warming.

Ecological footprint

Definition: Amount of land area the human population hypothetically needs to provide the resources required to support itself and to absorb its wastes, given prevailing technology •Used to determine whether our current lifestyles are sustainable • A measure of demand on the earth's ecosystems • Includes - cropland, grazing land, forest, and fishing grounds required to produce the food, fiber, and timber it consumes, to absorb the wastes emitted in generating the energy it uses, and to provide space for its infrastructure. • The sum of all areas worldwide • Measured in global hectares per person 1. Largest ecological footprint in world- United Arab Emirates 11.9 hectares per preson 2. World average- 2.2 hectares per person

nonlinear changes

Defintion: Accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes • Fisheries collapse • Once threshold of nutrient loading is achieved, changes can be abrupt and extensive like harmful algal blooms, nd deadzones/ hypoxia through eutrophication • Disease emergence o Excesive flooding caused cholera epiemics in Africa o Hurricane Matthew hit Haiti Tuesday- cholera • Examples of nonlinear changes o Species introduciions and losses o Regional climate change from deforestation which leads to decreased rainfall

Important Adaptation Response to global warming- adaptation needed now because global warming is happening now due to CO2

Developed Countries- North America *Wildlife induced loss of ecosystem integrity due to drying and high temperatures (high confidence) • Increasingly incorporating FIRE protection measures prescribed burning introduction of resilient vegetation *Heat-related human morality (high confidence) • Residential air conditioning can effectively reduce risk • AC use is highly variable and not available to poor *Urban floods in riverdine and coastal areas- ecosystem and social system disruption, public health impacts (high confidence) • Impervious surfaces leading to more groundwater recharge, green infrastructure and rooftop gardens • Older rainfall design standards are being used that need to be updated to reflect current climate conditions • Conservation of wetlands, including mangrove and land-use planning strategies can reduce the intensity of flood events Developing Area Africa *Compound STRESS on water resources, overpopulation, and degradation present increased demand, Drought stress exacerbated in drought-prone regions of Africa (high confidence) • Reduced non-climate stressors on water resources • Strengthening institutional capacities for demand management • Sustainable urban development *Reduced crop productivity with heat and drought stress (high confidence) • Technological adaption responses • Diversifying livelihoods • Strengthening institutions • Agronomic adaption responses- agroforestry, conservation agriculture, etc *Changes in incidence of geographic range of vector and water-borne diseases (medium confidence) • Achieving development goals particularly improved access to safe water and improved sanitation and enhancement of public health • Sustainable urban development

Main categories of energy solutions

Energy conservation/efficiency most important Smart urban growth (avoid urban sprawl; compact, transit-oriented, walkable, bicycle-friendly land use, smart energy grid, hybrid vehicles, heat capture from utilities or cogeneration (joint generation of electrical and another kind of energy) (2/3 of produced energy lost as heat!) important!

Economist Stein's economic predictions

Extreme weather could reduce global GDP by up to 1% 2-5 C rise could reduce global economic output by 3-10% worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20% to stabilize at manageable levels, EMISSIONS would need to STABILIZE in the next 20 years and fall between 1 and 3% after that would cost 1% of GDP cost to mitigate global warming less than cost of effects of doing nothing- IMPORTANT Initial US government response lacking Refused to sign Kyoto protocol because it would put us at an economic disadvantage to developing countries

Important conclusion of fifth ipcc report from anthropogenic warming about species

High confidence- many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change due to Anthropogenic warming

Australia

Likely that frequency of heat waves is increasing in parts of Europe, Asia, and Australia Extreme Heat Wave Summer 2003 Europe •5 groups of researches using distinct methods, analyzed heat that baked Australia for 2013/2014, briefly shutting down Australian open tennis tournament in January when temperature went to 111 degrees Fahrenheit- virtually impossible without climate change

Why Cellulosic conversion of range grasses may be best biofuel

No food- use enzymes to break down plant cellulose to sugar and then ferment to ethanol by microorganisms. Lignocellulose raw material is available in a great diversity of biomass including waste from urban, agricultural, and forestry sources

little incentive to act until we can reveal a DIRECT link to human health from an environmental problem

Paul Epstein 1998, Hurricane Mitch (6 feet of rain) in Central America ► malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and leptospirosis (fever) soared. • 2000, rain and three cyclones inundated Mozambique for six weeks ► incidence of malaria rose fivefold. • 2003, summer heat wave in Europe killed tens of thousands • 2005, Phoenix, Arizona, temperature > 100°F for 39 consecutive days (1 week >110°F), took a harsh toll on the homeless. • 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated coastal communities. • Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), Matthew (2016) Philippines' Typhoon Haiyan Nov 2013 - lot of 1,000 year storms!

Tragedy of the commons

Privatization of common pool resources harms individuals who depend on those resources

Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

Protected areas established Technological advances help lessen pressure on ecosystems Substuties •can be developed for some ecosystem services •Vinyl, plastics, and metal for wood •Cost of substitutes generally high ad other negative environmental consequences*** oFuelwood for fossil fuel reduces pressure on forests but increases net greenhouse gas emissions •Actions that influence the level of production and consumption of ecosystem services and sustainablility of production- we need change in societal values! oPopulation change- growth and migration oChange in economic activity- economic growth, disparitites in wealth, trade patterns oSociopolitical factors- presence of conflict and public participation in decision making oCultural factors- beleifs values, traditions, etc oTechnological cahgne

2 major contributors to sea level rise

Thermal expansion- add heat, water expands Melting of glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica Seas rising 8 inches since beginning of 20th century and more than 2 inches in past 20 yrs alone. Burning world's coal deposit would melt the entire ice sheet covering antartica and drive sea level up more than 200 ft *Would take 1000-2000 short years

Why is deforestation a net carbon source?

Trees are burned to clear land for cattle and soybeans. Burning trees releases CO2. Less trees means less photosynthesis and less carbon sequestration

How are Financial institutions feeling the loss already from extreme weather and climate events?

US insurance losses rose from 10 billion in 1980 to 1.1 trillion in 2011- steadily going up Investor and insurance requirements for loans to use green technology, influence on building codes reduced premiums for practice directors and officers of firms Governments- tax credits for clean tech industries, progressive procurement practices (eg for hybrid fleets), tax benefits that defray upfront costs for using and developing new technologies

How do climate models work?

Understanding climate change climate sensitivity Analysis using climate models for future specific CO2 concentrations allow us to assess the likely range for climate sensitivity and provides increased confidence in the understanding of climate system response to radiative forcing For example- assume doubling of CO2 concentrations and then run all models Estimates equilibrium response to sustained radiative forcing

CO2 is from volcanoes not humans

Underwater volcanoes emit between 66 and 97 million metric tons of CO2 per year but balanced by the CARBON SINK provided by newly formed ocean floor LAVA. Consequently, underwater volcanoes have little effect on atmospheric CO2 levels Land volcanoes estimated to emit 242 million tons of CO2 per year Humans currently emitting around 29 billion tons of CO2 per year. Human CO2 emissions over 100 times greater than volcanic emissions Even strong volcanic eruptions such as Pintubu, El Chicon, and Agung had little discernable impact on CO2 levels

global warming impact on other species

Untied kingdom- early leafing of oak trees • Toads, frogs and newts spawning earlier (9-10 days earlier over 17 year period) • Bark beetle infestations- of conifers mvoign further north FIRES

IPCC- steps to mitigate global warming by sector very important! know some examples

Waste • Capture 35% of methane from landfills! Methane can then be burned for energy, releasing less harmful CO2 • Reduce the size of landfills by recycling waste materials • Better treatment of wastewater to reduce the amount of decomposable substances that yield CO2 • Forestry • Reduce deforestation by 75% in lati America, 5% in Africa and 25% in Asia • Increase reforestation- more trees to sequester CO2 • Remote sensing systems to monitor forests- satellite Agriculture • Change the timing of how and when rice paddies are flooded (produces a lot of methane) and cultivate rice at higher altitudes os it doesn't require flooding • Switch to fertilizers with ammonium sulfate instead of urea and ammonium (CO2 used in process of making ammonium sulfate) • Reduce methane emissions from manure by cooling, covering, or capturing emissions • Manage land to increase soil carbon storage- conservation tillage (No-till) reduces CO2 loss from soil- Chesapeake Bay • Restore degraded land • Dedicated non-food energy crops- switchgrass Chesapeake bay • Crop yield improvement- feed more people on less land (but we need to control population) Industry • Switch to lower carbon fuels- natural gas, biomass, waste, solar, wind geothermal- Germany produced 87% energy using alternative sources! • Use carbon capture and sequestration from emissions- industrial plants are large sources of CO2. 15 years away at best!- chemical sponges absorb CO2. Can be shipped and released later to pump underground for storage or pumped into oceans o However, acidification of ocean with increasing concentrations of CO2 • Reduce proportion of concrete that is calcium based limestone by substituting slag and fly ash (concrete is 7-10%of CO2 emissions worldwide) • Heat and power recovery- no waste energy • Improve electric motor maintenance and efficiency - electric motors consume about 2/3 electricity • Materials recycling Buildings- Cut electricity use in homes, offices, and stores by • More energy-efficient space heating and cooling • Improving insulation so that it is 40% more efficient than current standards • Using solar energy to generate electricity and hot water • Replacing 20% of lights with compact fluorescents/LEDs (light emitting diodes) • Boosting the efficiency of appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines. Water heaters, and rechargers (EPA energy star) • Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that proved feedback an control • Green buildings- plants on roofs and walls. Help keep temperature constant and sequester CO2 Transportation • Double the average fuel economy of 1 billion cars form 30-60 miles per gallon miles per gallon- battery development • Use biofuels for 3% of fuel if just ethanol, or 5-10% if cellulose is commercialized. Using food for fuel bad! • Boost fuel efficiency in the aviation sector through technology, operations, and air traffic management • Electrify rail service and generate electricity in a renewable way • Improve mass transit Power Generation • Reduced usage through conservation- very important • Sharply increases the share of renewable energy in the total electricity supply • Windmills, solar power, geothermal, and tidal/wave energy capture • Equip some 400 large coal plants with carbon capture and storage technology • Increase nuclear power's share of electricity- 350 plants worldwide. • Build more efficient coal-fired power plants. Today's plants capture 32% of energy in coal. New plants can be more efficient • Switch from coal plants to natural gas- cut emissions by half. Gas plants more efficient and natural gas has a lower carbon content