ENV H 220 Final
Food security
"When people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food preferences for an active & healthy life" (FAO, 2002)
(Vector-borne diseases) Types of Transmission: Biological
- Biological transmission •Some form of pathogen development or replication occurs in the vector •Agent requires transmission to survive •Host specificity important •Virus replication (dengue virus) •Parasite development (plasmodium) - Routes of Transmission •Blood feeding (mosquitoes, ticks) •Defecation (triatome) •Vector requires blood meal to survive or reproduce
Key vulnerabilities (What are they?)
- Exposure of a society, community, or social-ecological system to climatic stressors - Importance of the vulnerable systems(s) - Limited ability of societies, communities, or social-ecologicial systems to cope with and build adaptive capacities - Persistence of vulnerable conditions and degree of irreversibility of consequences - Presence of conditions that make certain communities and locations inhabitable/precarious
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Formed in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization to conduct assessments of the state of knowledge of climate change, the vulnerabilities to and consequences of any changes, and the options to avoid, prepare for, and respond to changes - Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and comprehensive assessment - Difering viewpoints existing within the scientiic community are relected in the IPCC - Panel of scientists which summarizes climate change research - Does not conduct its own research - Serves as authoritative opinion of world's scientists in climate negotiations - Main focus: scientific data/research
Role of Governments
- Governments request the scientiic community to conduct comprehensive assessments - Governments elect a Bureau to ensure assessments are conducted following the IPCC Rules and Procedures - Proposed outlines are discussed and approved line-by-line by the governments in a Plenary - Bureau approves the chapter author team based on scientific expertise, geography - Governments participate in the review process and in the IPCC Plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work program are taken and reports are accepted, adopted, and approved - Summary for Policymakers approved line-by-line by the governments in a inal Plenary
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
- International convention coordinating GHG stabilization activities between countries - Convenes meetings each year to negotiate CC policy; Conference of the Parties (COP) - Facilitates negotiations and policy plans (main focus: policy)
What does the Paris Agreement entail?
- Long-term goals and signals - A commitment to return regularly to make climate action stronger - A response to the impact of extreme climate events on the most vulnerable - The transparency needed to ensure action takes place - Finance, capacity building and technology to enable real change
Challenges in Forecasting Disease Risk
- Multiple sources of error/uncertainty •Model accuracy •Weather forecast accuracy •Epidemiological data accuracy and availability - Incorporation of both environmental and non-environmental risk factors into forecasts •New pathogen vs endemic pathogen •Socioeconomic conditions •Transmission intervention strategies - Knowledge gaps •Pathogen incubation periods, transmission probabilities, immunity
(Vector-borne diseases) Types of Transmission: Others?
- Myiasis •Vector infestation (larvae) inside of body tissue (dead or alive) •Ex. Botflies - Infestation •Head, body, and public lice - Irritation •Biting, stinging •Reactions (allergies)
What is climate change communication?
- On the surface, climate change communication is about educating, informing, warning, persuading, mobilizing and solving this critical problem - At a deeper level, climate change communication is shaped by our different experiences, mental and cultural models, and underlying values and worldviews
Criteria for determining key risks
- Probability that signiicant risks will materialize and their timing - Magnitude > Irreversibility and persistence of conditions that determine risks > Limited ability to reduce the magnitude and frequency or other characteristics of hazardous climatic events and trends and the vulnerability of societies and social-ecological systems
Reasons for concern
- Risk to unique and threatened systems - Risks associated with extreme weather and climate events - Risks associated with the distribution of impacts - Risks associated with global aggregate impacts - Risks associate with large-scale singular events
COP24 (2018)
-- The Katowice Climate Change Conference brought together over 22,000 participants: -Nearly 14,000 government oicials -7,000 representatives from UN bodies and agencies, intergovernmental organizations, and civil society organizations -1,500 members of the media -- Tasked with delivering a "rule book" for the Paris Agreement: -Result of conference: a package that facilitate countries' eforts to implement the Paris Agreement
•Current crop models do not account for likely impacts from climate change, including:
-Heat stress - to rice yield, flowering & pollinators -Extreme weather events (e.g. winds, waterlogging) -Sea level rise, salt water intrusion -Aquifer depletion & water contamination -Loss of land due to urbanisation & to biofuels production -Rising cost of oil & fertiliser -Future shortage of potassium — an essential element -Atmospheric brown cloud ('solar dimming') -Political economy & conflict — 'entitlement' factors
Types of malnutrition
1. Acute malnutrition: Wasting or thinness 2. Chronic malnutrition: Stunting or shortness 3. Acute and chronic malnutrition: Underweight
4 priorities for action
1.Understanding disaster risk 2.Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk 3.Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience 4.Enhancing disaster preparedness for efective response and to "build back better" in recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction
Disease Systems
A multi-factorial relationship between hosts, agents, vectors and environment
What are Vector-borne Diseases?
An infectious disease that is transmitted to humans or other animals by an insect or other arthropod is called a vector-borne disease (VBD)
Water-borne/Food-borne: E. coli, Salmonella
Both are intestinal bacteria found in humans and animals
Food security lecture: What is the Sustainable Development Goal 2?
End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture
Sendai public health priorities
Enhance the resilience of national health systems, including by •integrating disaster risk management ... especially at the local level •supporting and training community health groups in disaster risk reduction approaches in health programmes, in collaboration with other sectors •implementation of the International Health •People with life threatening and chronic disease, due to their particular needs, should be included in the design of policies and plans to manage their risks before, during and after disasters, including having access to life-saving services •Enhance recovery schemes to provide psychosocial support and mental health services for all people in need •Establish a mechanism of case registry and a database of mortality caused by disaster in order to improve the prevention of morbidity and mortality
What is the connection between gender and climate change activities?
Gender can diferentially afect CC and health outcomes -Women & girls at greater risk of food insecurity -Women at greater risk of depression, stress disorders following disasters -Men at greater risk of suicide, ire, & lood deaths - Growth of constituencies at UNFCCC to create policy & inancing regimes that respond to these inequities
Basic Risk Formula
Probability x Consequence = Risk
Climate impact of global livestock
Responsible for 20% GHG emissions: -CO2 from land clearance, fertiliser, harvest, shipping -CH4 from digastrics (sheep, cattle, goats) -CH4 from manure -NO2 from fertiliser
How to communicate: framing
Setting an issue within an appropriate context for that audience, to achieve a desired perspective
True or false: the right to food is universal
True
Components of Risk
What is the hazard? •Who is most vulnerable? -Little guidance -Based on exposure and susceptibility: •Elderly •Children •Workers •What drives adaptive capacity for vulnerable populations? •How might early warnings facilitate protective responses and increase resilience?
Climate mitigation cobenefits
the indirect public health (or other) benefits associated with GHGE reductions, independent of reductions to global warming
True or false: the # of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2014, reaching anestimated 821 million in 2017
true :'(
West Nile Virus
•Arrived in US via New York in 1999 •Epidemic wave across US in 2002-2003, now in all 50 states •Transmitted primarily by Culex mosquitoes •Symptoms: none (80%), mild fever (20%), encephalitis/meningitis (<1%) •Birds are the reservoir for the virus •Mosquito must feed on viremic bird to acquire virus •Humans and mammals are dead end hosts
Temperature Effects on Vector/Host
•Behavior - Feeding / Foraging •Shelter seeking •Population dynamics - Population growth or crashes
Leishmaniasis
•Caused by Leishmania protozoa parasites and vectored by phlebotomine sand flies •Cutaneous leishmaniasis: causes skin sores •Visceral leishmaniasis: Affects spleen, liver, bone marrow •Mostly in topical and subtropical countries •Wild dogs often act as reservoirs
Water-borne: Schistosomiasis
•Caused by Schistosoma nematodes •Symptoms: rash (initial), fever, muscle ache (later), abdominal pains, enlarged liver, blood in stool and urine (chronic) •Snail is vector for nematode and are sensitive to water temperature
Water-borne/Food-borne: Cholera
•Caused by bacteria Vibrio cholerae •Symptoms: Diarrhea, vomiting, cramps •Severe symptoms are rare •Cause by water or food contamination •Climate relationship: ocean temps, pH, and salinity affect zooplankton blooms
Rodent-borne: Plague
•Caused by bacteria Yersinia pestis carried by fleas on rodents •Symptoms: sudden onset of fever, headache, chills, and weakness •Climate relationship•Warm wet springs increase vegetation availability •Rodent population explodes increasing rodent-human contact
Lyme Disease
•Caused by bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted by tick Ixodes scapularis •Initialsymptoms: fever, headache, skin rash •Chronic: joint, heart, and nervous system •Climate: •Life cycle tied to seasonal temperatures •Northern range expansion
Onchocerciasis
•Caused by worm Onchocerca volvulus and vectored by Simulium blackflies •Adult worms live under the skin •Microfilariae can disseminate throughout the body causes itches and rash •Immune response in the eyes can cause blindness
Precipitation Effects on Host/Vector
•Change in host/vector populations - Increase in standing water - Increase in vegetation for food - Too much rain can increase flooding and wash out habitats - Low rainfall can cause rivers to dry and create stagnant water pools - Increase in stored water during drought •Change in contact between pathogen and host/vector - Behaviors
Modelling climate change & future food security
•Current models vary by: -Pathways of greenhouse gas emissions -Climate 'sensitivity' to CO2 equivalent levels -Strength of carbon fertilisation effect -Incorporation of food trade
Precipitation Effects on Pathogen
•Dispersal - Flooding causing contamination of drinking water •Change in pathogen habitat - Water temperature - Water chemistry
Temperature Effects on Pathogen
•Extrinsic incubation period (EIP) - Period required for the pathogen to develop/replicate and migrate to the transmission site inside a vector •Pathogen load - Pathogen develops and/or replicates faster at higher temperatures - Increased viral load increases infection likelihood - Survival increases/decreases in the environment
Chagas Disease
•Found in rural regions of Latin America •Caused by parasite Trypanosoma cruziand vectored by Triatoma sp. •Currently ~10 million infected •Recently expansion into urban areas from rural regions •Two phases of diseases •Acute: fever, swelling around infections site •Chronic: heart rhythm abnormalities, dilated esophagus or colon
Rodent-borne: Hantavirus
•Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome •Transmitted though mouse urine, feces, and saliva •Early symptoms: fatigue, fever, muscle aches, dizziness, chills, abdominal problems •Late symptoms: coughing and shortness of breath from fluid in lungs (38% mortality rate)
Opportunities in Forecasting VBD Risk
•Important to work directly with public health workers •Increased access to surveillance data •Potential incorporation of transmission intervention strategies into models •Expert knowledge •Continually incorporate new knowledge into forecast system •Improvements in weather and climate forecasting •Improvements in data availability •Increased knowledge of pathogen ecology •Potential forecasting timescales •Seasonal vs weekly forecasting
Steps to improve future food security
•Improve governance & leadership •Secure food entitlement •Pursue & encourage technological breakthroughs -Water quantity & water quality -More investment in research for sustainable agriculture •Address food demand & supply •Improve food production models -Account for likely climate change impact
By 2050, model projects climate change will...
•Lead to per-person reductions of -3.2% in global food availability -4.0% in fruit & vegetable consumption -0.7% in red meat consumption •Result in 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide -Most deaths are projected to occur in south and east Asia •Adoption of climate-stabilization pathways would reduce climate-related deaths by 29-71%
Communicating climate change more effectively
•Manage your audience's expectations •Start with what you know, not what you don't know •Be clear about the scientific consensus•Shift from uncertainty to risk •Be clear about the type of risk you are talking about •Understand what is driving people's views •The most important question is when not if •Communicate through images and stories •Highlight the positives of uncertainty •Communicate effectively about climate impacts •Have a conversation not an argument •Tell a human story
Vector-borne: Mosquitoes, Flies, ect.
•Many insect species transmit pathogens •Mosquitoes: malaria (anopheles), dengue fever (aedes), West Nile virus (Culex), ect. •Flies: onchocerciasis (blackfly), trypansomiasis (tsetse fly), leishmaniasis (sandfly), ect. •Unique ecologies but usually influenced by climate
(Vector-borne diseases) Types of Transmission: Mechanical
•Mechanical transmission •No pathogen development or replication occurs •Pathogen is simply transported by the vector on feet, mouthparts, ect. •From feces, carcasses, trash •Transmission of dysentery, typhoid, salmonella - Vectors •Flies •Cockroaches
Risk Management components
•Multiple components -Risk recognition -Risk assessment -Risk engagement •Multiple stances -Risk mitigation -Risk avoidance -Risk retention -Risk sharing
Malaria
•Protozoan parasites (Plasmodium spp) vectored by Anopheles mosquitoes •Precipitation is important for habitat •Temperature regulates feeding rate, life cycle, EIP
7 global goals by 2030
•Substantially reduce global disaster mortality •Substantially reduce the number of afected people globally •Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP •Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure & disruptions of basic services •Substantially increase the number of countries with nationaland local disaster risk reduction strategies •Substantially increase international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable support •Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazards early warning systems
Vector-borne: Tick
•Ticks spread pathogens through blood meals •Life cycle tied to seasonal temperatures •Examples: Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Babesiosis, Powassan disease
Dengue Virus
•Transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes •Anthropophilic mosquitoes •Four distinct serotypes of virus •Approximately 94 million symptomatic cases of dengue fever per year •Approximately 30% of infections symptomatic •Symptoms: fever, headache, rash, fatigue, muscle and bone aches, and hemorrhagic manifestations in rare instances •Increasing range in the Americas •Local transmission in Florida
Characteristics & impacts of undernutrition
•Undernourished often have co-existent disease, including parasites -Increased demand for calories -Can limit nutrient absorption •Undernourishment -Reduces cognitive potential, height, strength, stamina & learning capacity, causing a multiple burden -Increases stigma
Valley fever (soil-borne)
•Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis) •Caused by the soil fungus Coccidiodes •Infection occurs by breathing in the spores •Grow and blow hypothesis: moist conditions to grow, dry conditions to blow
Influenza (airborne)
•Viral infection transmitted via airborne and contact routes •Associated with ~250,000 - 5000,000 deaths annually •Specific humidity is the best predictor of transmission
