ESP (14.2)

Bem (2011)

- studied time reversal, recalling words not yet presented - small but significant time reversal effect - cannot be replicated

tools con artists use

1) playing the odds 2) misdirection 3) physics 4) optical illusions 5) blame them for skepticism

Chance performance

6.25%

prediction

A statement of what will happen next in a sequence of events.

Nostradamus

Fortune teller; French physician and astrologer who wrote a book of rhymed prophecies predictied - fires of london - 9.11 - iraq war - hurricane katrina

Clairvoyance (ESP)

Perceiving remote events, such as a fire occurring in another area

confirmation bias

a tendency to search for information that confirms one's preconceptions

postdiction

explaining phenomena after they have already occurred

Debris Monitor

may seem like after you know the events there is a logical connection to be made

telepathy

mind to mind communication

precognition

perceiving future events

illusory correlation

perception of a relationship where none exists, or perception of a stronger relationship than actually exists

What is extrasensory perception (ESP)?

the controversial claim that perception can occur apart from sensory input; includes telepathy, clairvoyance, and precognition telepathy

publication bias

the tendency for journals to publish positive findings but not negative or ambiguous ones- ignore data that mismatches their hypothesis

hindsight bias

the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it

Redelmeier and Tversky (1996) followed 18 patients with arthritis for 18 months. Patients were asked to record their pain and joint tenderness, while researchers documented changes in the weather. Nearly all patients believed that their condition was associated with weather changes, when the actual correlation was near zero. These participants need to be reminded that

there was no correlation but it was only percieved