POLS 1336 Exam 2

Loyalty Trends: Democrats

- Labor union members - People living in large inner cities - Women - African Americans and Hispanics - Young people (18-24) - Most blue collar workers - The unemployed - Catholics and Jews - The widowed - Liberals

2016 Presidential Election

(First Presidential Election since 1808 with multiple "faithless electors" that voted against their pledged candidate) Hillary Clinton: •65,853,514 votes •48.2% •21 States Won (includes D.C.) •232* Electoral Votes (Actually only got 227 electoral votes due to faithless electors) •Colin Powell received 3 votes and Faith Spotted Eagle (a Native American activist that tried to stop the construction of the Key Stone Pipeline in South Dakota) received one vote from faithless electors in Washington state. •Bernie Sanders received a vote from a faithless elector in Hawaii. Donald Trump: •62,984,828 votes •46.1% •30 States Won •306* Electoral Votes (Actually only got 304 electoral votes due to faithless electors) •Kasich and Ron Paul received votes from faithless electors in Texas.

The Presidential Party

- Important party leader; successes and failures reflect on party --> Raises money, campaigns, and sometimes his "coattails" help party nominees - *Some presidents very interested in party building and very helpful to party organization and candidates --> *Called pro-party presidents - Other presidents act as if they are 'above the fray' and are almost nonpartisan -sometimes party members don't want to be associated with second term president because they are afraid to be associated his failures, and are worried voters might want a change after 8 yrs

What are we really learning?

- A full transcript of the typical nightly network news broadcasts - foreign and domestic - would not fill half of the front page of an average daily newspaper. - Yet three-quarters of the American people routinely depend on this source for most of their foreign affairs information. - This tells us that while the TV news might make the public aware of given newsworthy events, if people really want to be informed and find out the details of a given topic they might want to read newspapers and even do some research on their own.

Loyalty Trends: Republicans

- Chambers of Commerce - The West (excluding the far west coast, like California) - Men tend to split fairly evenly between the two parties - Older Cuban Americans (anti-Castro) - Professionals, executives, and white collar workers - High status Protestants - Married couples - Conservatives

the parties and state govt

- Most of the same logic of the party's relationship to the national legislature, executive, and judiciary apply at the state level as well. -Occasionally, a 3rd party will find success at the state level (ex: Jesse Ventura winning the governorship of Minnesota as a member of Reform Party) There are a few differences: -Governors have more rewards and incentives to help them maintain party discipline and promote their agenda than does the President (I.e. the line-item veto). -state legislatures have more party unity and cohesion than Congress. However, members tend to also be more likely to work with the opposing party on passing legislation since tend to share similar political ideologies, regardless of party.

Presenting the News

- Once the news is found, it must be turned into 30-second segments or fit in amongst the ads in a newspaper -most analysis of news events on tv rarely last more than a minute, but with complex issues is this really a sufficient amount of time? -even the 24-hour news networks typically fail to devote in depth coverage to most topics and stories

The Development of Mass Media

- The daily newspaper is largely of the late 19th century, radio and TV since the first half of the 20th century. -As recently as the presidency of Herbert Hoover (1929-1933), reporters submitted their questions to the president in writing, and he responded in writing (if at all). -F.D.R. (1933-1945) was the first president to use the media effectively. To F.D.R. the media was a potential ally, and he promised reporters two press conferences a week. -At the time of F.D.R.'s administration, the press had not yet started to report on a political leader's private life. (Out of respect, the press core that followed FDR would not take pictures of him below his waist, which kept most Americans in the dark of the fact that FDR could not stand on his own). -The events of the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal soured the press on government. -Today's newspapers work in an environment of cynicism and the press believes finding out the truth through methods such as investigative journalism is their job since they believe politicians rarely tell the entire story. -The media is considered by many scholars to be the unofficial "4thbranch of government". A free and independent media is essential to the legitimacy of our republic because it helps to inform the general public about the actions of government, and it helps to question elected officials whenever they are engaging in illegal or unethical behavior.

Newspapers

- The first American daily newspaper was printed in Philadelphia in 1783, but daily newspapers did not become common until the technological advances of the mid-19thcentury. -Rapid printing and cheap paper made the "penny presses" possible—a paper that could be bought for a penny and read at home. -By the 1840s, the telegraph permitted a primitive "wire service" which relayed news stories from city to city much faster than before. -The Associated Press, founded in 1849 depended heavily on the wire service. -Around the end of the 19thcentury and the beginning of the 20thcentury "yellow journalism" was common, in which the main topics were sensationalized accounts of violence, corruption, wars, and gossip. -Newspapers consolidated into chains during the early part of the 20thcentury. Some newspapers failed, and others went to online versions only. -Most newspapers that are still printed today also have online content. Online newspaper content tends to be more opinion driven (with blogs), while the printed newspapers today tend to be more about the facts of the news. -Today's massive media conglomerates control newspapers with 78% of the nation's daily circulation. (These chains often control TV and radio stations as well).

How to make a reliable poll - an accurate sample

- accurate samples require every group be properly represented (race, age, gender, location, etc.) - must keep in mind, people willing to participate often feel strongly one way or another which can affect poll results as those without a strong opinion don't participate enough -the way respondents are contacted has an impact on accuracy: reliable polls use multiple ways, - Phone Calling - 95% of americans have phones, so random phone calling would be a valid method if you had to pick just one. - Internet - Not everyone has access (esp. poor, older people) so can be problematic. Additionally, emailing can print issues of spam filters, multiple accounts, and difficulty verifying demographics. polls/surveys on websites can be problematic as well because certain types of websites get certain types of people viewing them and may accidentally allow multiple responses. Mailing - expensive, time consuming Face to Face - can be problematic: time and day of week can be oversaturated with certain demographic, going to different locations get different demographics. galleria vs greens point mall.

Primary Elections

- for parties to choose who will represent in the general election types: •Closed Primaries: Only party members are allowed to vote in a party's primary. Thus, as a voter you must declare your party allegiance before you vote in a party's primary. •Open Primaries: Allow independents and members of other parties to vote in a party's primary. This allows voters of an opposing party to potentially try to sabotage the opposition's primary by voting in that primary and voting for a weaker candidate. Texas is an example of a state with an open primary. •Blanket Primaries: Voters may vote in either party's primary (but not in both) on an office by office basis. Historically, blanket primaries have taken place in a small minority of states (such as Alaska and Washington). The U.S. Supreme Court has recently held traditional blanket primaries to be unconstitutional, but variations like the jungle primary are allowed. •Jungle Primaries (also known as Cajun Primaries): They are done in Louisiana. All the candidates are put on one ballot (multiple Republicans, Democrats, third party candidates, and independents). If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, they become the office holder. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the top 2 vote getters (even if they are both from the same party) and whomever wins the run-off becomes the office holder. •Run-off Primaries: If no candidate in a party's primary receives more than 50% of the vote, the top to vote getters run against each other in a run-off primary, and the winner goes on to run in the general election. Run-offs typically only take place in primaries, but run-offs are also allowed in the general election in Georgia. The run-off primaries in Texas are closed primaries.

roots and development of American Interest Groups

- have been part of the American political landscape since the country's founding. -James Madison in Federalist #10 argued for a proliferation of groups so that no one group could get hegemony over the other groups. -If you look at America today, we have thousands of interest groups, but the argument can be made that only a small number of them have any significant influence over government. -The open nature of the American government invites organized political participation.

criticisms of interest groups

- ignoring the wider interest of society -producing confusion and deadlock in congress -generating so much emotion that they make discussion difficult -having too much influence

Primaries vs. Caucuses

- in recent years, away from caucuses toward primaries. -primaries encourage broader range of people to participate bc less investment of time, ample opportunities to vote (early, absentee, 7am-7pm) -downside: voters are less informed Caucus: -several hours invested in meetings discussing issues and candidates -> moe informed voters -downside: fewer people participate in caucuses because of the long time investment, and specific time window. provides opportunity for influence/ bully of some voters on others as is not private and allows banding together prior to voting.

Initiatives, Referenda, and Recall Elections

- initiatives: allow citizens to propose legislation and submit it to popular vote - each state determines the reqs. for ballot access (usually # of signatures on a petition) -Referendum: allows legislature to submit proposed legislation for popular approval -some are voluntary because leg wants voter input -some are mandatory for issues such as tax increases -Recall Elections: allow citizens to remove someone from office -very rare All three are often referred to as direct democracy problems: -number of initiatives can be too big - people vote based of highly emotional campaign commercials and slogans -laws can end up on the books with no debate and no real understanding of them

Bias in the News

- media = filter of information. - Sometimes the entire story is not being told, and many times reflects political leanings of the outlet telling the story. -Reporters are more likely to call themselves liberal than the general public. (In 1992, a survey of 1,400 journalists found that 44% identified themselves as Democrats, and only 16% identified themselves as Republicans. Similar results have been reported in surveys since then.) However, some feel that it is unlikely that journalists' personal attitudes sway their reporting of the news because: -Most stories are reported in "point/counterpoint" format. -Most reporters believe in journalistic objectivity. -Objective reporting is usually rewarded by editors. -While most national TV and print media tends to be liberal (with obvious exceptions like FOX News and One America News), AM radio political talk shows tend to be very conservative (with talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, Mark Levine, and Michael Berry). -Plus, it should be noted that large conservative media conglomerates own a number of local TV news stations, and in many cases they dictate from the top down, what stories are covered, and how they are covered.

What are interest groups?

- organization of people with similar policy goals that try to influence political process. -influence every branch and level of government. -If you can think of an interest or a group of people there is probably an interest group that represents them. examples: AARP (The largest interest group in the country in terms of total membership) NRA NAACP LULAC MALDEF NOW The Sierra Club

Who Votes?

-people with higher INCOME -OLDER people -since 1980, women vote for democrats more than republicans -Whites vote MORE, hispanics and african americans vote less (could be correlation with other factors

The Broadcast Media

-The broadcast media have gradually displaced the print media as America's principal source of news and information. - Radio was invented in 1903. - The first modern commercial radio station was Pittsburgh's KDKA, whose first broadcast was of the 1920 Harding-Cox presidential election returns. - The first television station appeared in 1931. - The first televised presidential debate was the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate. - People listening to the radio gave the edge to Nixon...they felt he was a better speaker that gave better answers. - People who saw the debate on TV gave the edge to Kennedy...he was more handsome, appeared much younger, didn't have five o'clock shadow like Nixon, and wasn't sweating like Nixon was (especially on his upper lip). - TV took the nation to the Vietnam War in the 1960s, and it exposed government lies about the progress of the war. - Cable was invented in the 1970s. - CNN was founded in 1980. - The Internet did not become well known until the late 1990s. - Since 1963, surveys have consistently shown that more people rely on TV for news than any other medium. - By a 2 to 1 margin, people also think that TV reports are more believable than newspaper stories. - Another trend associated with the growth of cable TV and the internet is the development of "narrowcasting" where broadcast stations target particularly narrow audiences.

Types of Polls

-Tracking Polls -- continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall. Very popular during presidential elections. -Exit Polls -- conducted at polling places on election day. Allow the media to predict winners, and help s learn the way certain groups voted. -Deliberative Polls--(first tried in 1996)- large sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. After exposure designed to inform the respondents, given a survey/poll. deliberative polls attempt to measure what the public would think if they thoughtfully consider the issues. Interesting because many Americans that vote are uninformed voters.

General Elections

-between parties chosen candidates -usually, candidate with most votes wins- even just a plurality not necessarily majority - georgia: if no candidate gets a true majority then two top vote getters competed in a run off -louisiana: basically the same due to the cajun primary -general elections are held at every single level of govt.

The Congressional Party

-highly visible and important in congress -party groups elect leadership of both houses, arrange committees, and organize and operate the congress -CP leaders have some methods of enforcing party discipline such as good committee assignments, prime office assignments, fund raising help, legislative assistance, endorsements, etc. -party discipline is not terribly effective however -most elections are candidate centered and individualistic, and in those cases party sections do not have much influence

agenda setting

-mass media is effective in telling people what to think ABOUT -thus, the media makes topics an issue that people think about, but the media is not very good at guiding their audience to support one side of the argument over the other bc most people will make up their own minds on a given issue, regardless of what a particular media outlet may want their audience to think -this power is greatest among those who are neither interested nor involved in politics and hence lack political sophistication

The Party and the Judiciary

-members of the judiciary do follow election returns and are influenced but he public opinion to some small degree -many state and local judges are elected, they tend to be more heavily influenced by public opinion and election returns than appointed judges who usually agree politcally w their appointer

Minor Parties: Third Partyism

-minor parties and not a threat in winning presidential elections, but can have significant impact on who ends up winning Ex: Ross Perot in 1992 won 18.9% of the popular vote nation-wide and arguably took away votes from George H.W. Bush, which helped Bill Clinton become President in a close election*. (It was a close election in terms of nation-wide popular vote, but Clinton easily won the Electoral College with 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168, with Perot winning 0...however, Bush would have most likely won more electoral votes without Perot in the election—possibly enough to become president). Ralph Nader in 2000 won 2.74% of the popular vote nation-wide and arguably took away votes from Al Gore, which helped George W. Bush become President in a close election. In a key state like Florida (which Gore lost by 537 votes), Nader got 97,488 votes (1.635% of the popular vote in Florida). --Only eight third parties have won any electoral votes in a presidential contest. -third parties can win further down the ballot, some that have had success: -2000: Ralph Nader and the Green Party -1996 and 1992: Ross Perot's Reform Party -1968: George Wallace's American Independent Party -1924: Robert LaFollette's Progressive Party -1912: Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party -1856: Millard Fillmore's American Party

What do interest groups do?

-most common and effective technique is lobbying or seeking to influence and persuade others to support your groups position - lobbyists are hired by college, uni, businesses, foreign countries, trade associations, and anyone wanting voice herd on policy matters -lobbyist = someone who is tasked with influencing legislation or policymaking

Honest Lobbyists

-must be honest and truthful if want to remain effective -access to lawmakers is critical and if a lobbyist gets a reputation of being disingenuous legislators will close doors -of course, lobbyists put their groups position in a favorable light but good lobbyists will also make lobbyists aware of the downsides of a bill and arguments on the other side as well

Magazines

-poitical content is slim -newsweeklies such as Time, Newsweek, and the U.S. News and world Report rank well behind popular favs Reader's digest, TV guide, and National Geographic -serious magazines of political news and opinion (i.e. New Republic, National, Commentary) are primarily read by the educated elite

Political Parties in America

-political party= group of voters, activists, candidates, and office holders who identify with a party label and seek to elect individuals to public office -Hamilton and Jefferson, heads of federalist and anti-federalist groups, are considered the 'fathers" of modern party system -by 1800, this country had a party system w/ 2 major parties that has remained relatively stable ever since

Positive side to interest groups

-promote interest in public affairs -provide useful info -serve as watchdogs -represent the interest of citizens

The media and politicians

-research indicates that 2/3 of officials in policy decisions reported that the media was their most rapid source of info -over 4/5 indicated media was an important source of info

What makes an interest group successful?

1. Leaders - having a prominent leader aids in the reputation of the group and enhances a groups ability to attain its goals. 2.Patrons and Funding -funding is critical. Without money, it is hard to get your message out. 3. Members - a group must have member s to be successful. Organizing members allows for strength in numbers and polling of financial support.

Influential Newspapers

Among the most influential newspapers today are the: -New York Times -Washington Post -Chicago Tribune -Los Angeles Times -Wall Street Journal -USA Today -Christian Science Monitor These newspapers are considered influential because they influence what ends up on TV news; their stories many times can be the starting point for serious academic research by professors; and these newspapers tend to be read read across the entire country. With numerous newspapers going out of business; the advent of "fake news" (which as much as 45% of Americans read); and the general reliance of people on social media instead of credible news outlets, it is becoming more important than ever for newspapers to survive because they are slowly becoming the last outpost of in-depth investigative journalism.

The Electoral College

Compromise created by the Framers to ensure that the president was chosen intelligently and with the input of each of the states. •It was in large part created to prevent the state with the largest population from electing their "favorite son" every election, and thereby preventing candidates from smaller states from being elected president. •It also helps to ensure that SOME (but not all) of the smaller states are a factor in each presidential election because some of the smaller states will be battle-ground states that candidates need to pay attention to (battle-ground states can vary from election to election). •The Electoral College also provides the elite with an opportunity to override the will of the "unreasonable masses" when they vote for someone who is not qualified to be president by being able to convince the electors to go against the popular vote and select someone else for president. •The number of electors is determined by the federal representation for each state. For example: •Texas has36 members of the House of Representatives and 2 Senators = 38 electoral votes (based on 2010 census). •Wyoming has 1 Representative and 2 Senators = 3 electoral votes (based on 2010 census). •Every state has AT LEAST 3 electoral votes. •Washington D.C. also gets 3 electoral votes because the can have as many as the least. •There are a total of 538 electoral votes (535 members of Congress and 3 for the District of Columbia). •A majority of 270 wins the presidency. •The total number of electoral votes and the number of electoral votes necessary to become president would increase if another state joined the country. •The majority of the states use winner-take-all when determining which candidate wins the electoral votes for their state. •Even though we typically acknowledge on election night that one candidate has won the election and will become the next president, the reality is that it is not official until the Electoral College meets in December to cast their votes in each state. Then, the U.S. Senate announces the official results in January. •Just as George W. Bush did in 2000 and Donald Trump did in 2016, a candidate can win a majority of electoral votes, but lose the popular vote nation-wide and still be elected to the office.

convention delegates

Convention delegates are chosen in a variety of ways, based on rules enacted by each party: •Winner-take-all: Which ever candidate wins gets all the delegates. •Proportional representation (PR): Candidates are awarded delegates according to the percentage of the vote they won (provided they reach a minimum threshold which is usually 15%). •Sometimes at party's delegates for a given state do not represent the candidate that won the state. This is because the state conventions at which the delegates for each party are chosen typically happen weeks or months after the primaries or caucuses, and the winning candidate in a state may not have a strong enough "ground game" at the state convention to get their rightful share of delegates. •For Example, this happened in 2012 when Mitt Romney won Louisiana, but Ron Paul earned more delegates in the state (this also happened in a few other states that Romney won). •For Example, this happened in 2016 where in a few states Ted Cruz got more delegates than Donald Trump, despite the fact that Trump won the state.

Factors that influence opinion formation

Family - Children often follow in the leanings of their parents and vote alike. The Mass Media - People who watch and read TV and Newspaper news tend to be Liberal and vote democrat because the majority of news chanels and newspapers are liberal leaning. The majority of people who listen to AM radio tend to be conservative and vote republican because most hosts are very conservative.

Party Dominance- 1860-present

From 1860 to the present, the same two major parties have contested elections in the United States: Democrats and Republicans. Reconstruction -Republican dominance 1876-1896 -closely competitive 1896-1929 -Republican dominance 1930s and 1940s -Democratic dominance 1950s to present -closely competitive

indirect interest group techniques

Generating Public Pressure -run online, TV, radio, and newspaper ads making public aware of a given issue -using constituents as lobbyists by asking voters to contact their elected offficials about an issue -building alliances w/ other groups...smaller groups can band together to gain influence on common cause

2000 Presidential Election

Gore: •50,996,116 votes •48% •21 States Won (Includes D.C.) •266 Electoral Votes* Bush: •50,456,169 votes •48% •30 States Won 271 Electoral Votes

Congressional Elections

In Congressional elections (especially for the U.S. House): •candidates tend to be less visible and receive little media coverage. •most candidates are, or were state legislators. •name recognition is often the most important battle of the campaign. Many times having a common last name can be the most significant thing that gets a candidate elected.

Direct techniques of interest groups

Lobbying: -private meetings -testifying before congress/state legislatures -drafting legislation -social occasions -providing political info -supplying nomination suggestions for presidents and governors

How to make a reliable poll - proper question wording and sequencing

MUST HAVE: -proper question wording and sequencing: avoid asking leading questions i.e. do you think the president has done a bad job? (avoiding words such as bad or good, instead maybe rank from one to ten). sequence matters because some answers affect others, pollsters typically randomize sequence. common practice today is to ask presidential approval first so it is not affected by the other questions.

Factors that influence opinion formation cont.

School and peers - College students tend to be liberal and vote democrat because many college professors are liberal and their political leanings rub off on students The impact of events -events such as the fed goat's response to hurricanee katrina, the benghazi scandal, or any other national, state or local event can have an impact on an individual's opinion formation. Can even cause people to go from one end of the political spectrum to the other.

The Party in the electorate

The party-in-the-electorate is the mass of potential voters who identify with a specific party. -American voters often identify with a party, but rarely formally belong. -Party identification is often a voter's central political reference symbol. -Party identification generally comes from one's parents. -However, party id can be affected by a number of factors such as education, peers, charismatic personalities, cataclysmic events, and intense social issues.

hyper pluralist theory

argue that when interest groups become to powerful the dominate the political decision making structures and render any consideration of the greater public interest impossible

Pluralist Theory

argues that interest group activity brings representation to all. interest groups compete and counter balance one another.

how to make a reliable poll - unreliable poll traits

do not trust a poll that does not tell you: the QUESTION WORDING, the SAMPLING METHOD, the MARGIN OF ERROR, and the ways in which the RESPONDENTS WERE CONTACTED - reputable pollsters will also tell number of respondents, n. - higher margin of error, less reliable the poll is. -reliable poll = margin of error less than +/- 4% Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes and 555-5555 for no is UNSCIENTIFIC and UNRELIABLE. this is not a random sample at all! Even the most reliable polling organizations can make mistakes...In 1948 the big three polling organizations concluded their presidential polls in October, which was early. This resulted in them incorrectly predicting that Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election. In general, the Gallup Poll does tend to be reliable when it comes to predicting presidential elections.

Opinion Polls

interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population. - used because too time consuming and costly to get every citizen's opinion. -can be used to figure out who people will vote for, or how a group of people feel about a given political or social issue.

Factors that influence opinion formation cont.

social groups Religion - evangelicals and protestants tend to be conservative, whereas catholics and Jews tend to be liberal. Race- African-Americans tend to be liberal and vote democrat (90%+), hispanic americans also tend to vote democrat (55-65%) Gender- women tend to be more liberal than men Region- the North east, great lakes region, and the far west coast tend to be liberal and vote democrat. The deep south, central part of the country, and parts of the west tend to be conservative and vote republican. People living in inner cities tend liberal whereas suburbs tend conservative.

Presidential Elections

• long process (candidates often announce their intent to run about 18 months before the general election). •For the primaries: •held every four years... typically in January through May (the exact dates vary state-by-state, and sometimes election-by-election). Although, the Iowa caucus is first, and second is the New Hampshire primary. •The presidential election is actually 50 separate state elections (plus D.C. and the U.S. territories) in which delegates to each party's national convention are allotted. •Although many delegates to a convention are "bound" to vote the way the voters of the state they are in want them to, the reality is that any delegate could in theory vote however they like. Some states have actually passed laws imposing penalties on delegates that don't vote the way their state wants them to. •For the general election: •It is held every four years... on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. •It is actually 50 separate state elections (plus D.C.), and is based on the Electoral College, and NOT the popular vote.

electoral college reform

•A bill has been introduced in almost every session of Congress calling for the abolition of the Electoral College, but no bill has ever passed. •There are 3 basic reform ideas: 1) Abolish the Electoral College and elect the president based on the popular vote. 2) Congressional District Plan: Each candidate would get one electoral vote for every congressional district that they win. The winner of the popular vote in the state would get 2 bonus votes. (Maine and Nebraska currently do this, but most states (like Texas) are winner-take-all) 3) Keep the College, Abolish the Electors. This is because electors are real people that can change their minds and vote against how their state expects them to. Occasionally, an elector actually does this, and such actions lend themselves to potential corruption. Thus, this option would eliminate the human element and make the electoral votes automatic (if your state is winner-take-all, then all the electoral votes in your state automatically go to the winner of your state).

Thoughts on 2016

•Hillary Clinton lost the election primarily due to the fact that she lost 3 states in her "blue wall" (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) that she did not expect to lose. •Clinton did not campaign in Wisconsin after the primaries because she felt the state was safely Democrat. •The margin of victory for Trump in these 3 states was relatively small: •Approximately 23,000 votes in Wisconsin. •Approximately 11,000 votes in Michigan. Approximately 68,000 votes in Pennsylvania. •Much has been made about the polling being off, resulting in Trump's surprising victory. However, the nation-wide polls were fairly accurate, and many state polls were fairly accurate (within the margin of error) as well. The key problem would be in states that were part of Clinton's "blue wall". Since it was assumed she would win, the polls in those states weren't nearly as numerous, and typically were not done by more reliable polling outlets. •Trump's ability to put complex issues into short phrases helped him win. Some examples are phrases like "Make America Great Again", "Build the wall", "Lock her up", "Lying Ted", and "Drain the Swamp". Most voters don't care to get too invested in the details of political and social issues, so these short phrases work well with many voters. •How much of an impact did the "Comey Effect" have on the election....especially in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania? •What impact did "fake news" have on the election? Arguably very little, since the fake news for the most part was just reinforcing beliefs that voters already had. •What role did Russia, WikiLeaks, and other foreign powers play in the outcome of the election? •The election for president in the U.S. is decentralized...meaning that the elections are ran by state and local governments. This makes it very difficult to have wide-spread hacking of our presidential elections (though, in theory, there could be some hacking in a small number of key counties which could have an overall impact on the election in a close election). •The more likely impact that Russia, WikiLeaks, or other foreign powers had on the election was through propaganda that swayed some voters to vote the way they wanted them to. While it is impossible to calculate how many votes (if any ) were impacted by propaganda, the Mueller Report did verify that Russia did try to spread propaganda via social media, and that it hacked into the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Party and used WikiLeaks to release that information to the public. •Most importantly, these foreign powers win even if they didn't impact the election because they call into question the legitimacy of our election system.

The Texas Two-Step

•In Texas (through the 2012 election), the Democrats held both a primary and a caucus when voting on their presidential nominee...this was known as the Texas Two-Step. •Texas voters that voted in the Democratic Primary for president were allowed to attend the caucus meeting held in their voting precinct, which took place on election night after the polls closed. •At the caucus meetings, voters selected a chairperson (to run the meeting) and a secretary (to keep the records). Caucus-goers would also cast their votes for which candidate they supported. Then, they would select delegates to represent the precinct. Those delegates would go on to the county conventions, where they selected new delegates to go on to the state conventions. At the state convention, they would select new delegates that would go on to the Democratic National Convention. •Towards the end of the caucus meetings (which sometimes would be very late into the night, hours after the caucus meetings started) the voters would vote on resolutions. Some resolutions were submitted to the caucus by the Democratic Party, but caucus-goers could also propose their own resolutions. The resolutions were important because if they eventually pass at the national convention, they become part of the Democratic Party's platform or they could be used to establish rules for how the party's nominee is selected. As such, it was important that caucus goers stayed until the end of the caucus meetings so that they could have a say on the resolutions. •In Texas, the results of the primary accounted for 2/3 of the delegates for the presidential nominee. •In Texas, the results of the caucus accounted for 1/3 of the delegates for the presidential nominee. •Texas was the only state that had both a primary and a caucus when selecting a party's nominee for president, and it was only done on the Democratic side. Republicans in Texas hold just a primary to select their nominee for president. •Starting in 2016, Democrats used only a primary in Texas to select their nominee for president.

The Incumbency Advantage

•Incumbency, the condition of already being in the office and running for re-election, is often an electoral advantage because: •They are highly visible in the district. •They have easy access to local media. •They speak frequently at events and meetings. •Incumbents have: •$750,000 to run an office in the U.S. House. •The franking privilege - free mass mailings. •Constituency service - helping constituents unravel red tape. •In the U.S. House, reelection rates for incumbents are above 90% in most years.

Realignments

•Party Realignmentsare rare occurrences in which existing party affiliations change dramatically and the change lasts over several election cycles. •Until recently, such changes in party support occurred about 36 years apart. •Sometimes a war, economic crisis, or other such event precipitates a realignment. •An example of a party realignment would be when Democrats seized power at the beginning of the Great Depression under FDR. •Secular Realignmentis the gradual shifting of party coalitions •There is no particular event or moment that can be cited as the primary cause for the shift.

Barbara Lett-Simmons

•She was the "faithless" elector for D.C. that did not cast her electoral vote in the 2000 presidential election. (Hence, only 537 of the 538 total electoral votes were cast in 2000). •Her abstention was the first in the Electoral College since 1864. •She chose to not cast her electoral vote as a protest to Washington D.C. not being a state (and therefore, not having representation in Congress that could officially vote on legislation). •There were some rumors that she also refused to cast her vote to draw attention to the 537 votes that George W. Bush won Florida by (since her failure to cast her electoral vote resulted in only 537 electoral votes being cast in 2000...which is the same number). •She passed away in 2012.

Bush v. Gore (2000)

•The key state in the 2000 presidential election was Florida (which had 25 electoral votes). The results were close, but Bush won Florida on the first count by approximately 1200 votes. •With the results that close, laws were in place that mandated a machine recount. Bush won the machine recount by approximately 537 votes (percent wise, the margin of victory in Florida was the smallest in the history of the United States at .009% of the state's vote). •Then, Gore and the Democrats went to court requesting a hand recount. The Florida Supreme Court (which was majority Democrat) said Gore was entitled to a hand recount, but the recount was only done in a small number of voting precincts throughout Florida that were primarily Democratic stronghold areas, and no uniform standard was set for the hand recount of the paper ballots. •This meant that in some precincts only clearly marked ballots were counted; other precincts included ballots in the count that had hanging chads; other precincts included ballots in the count that had dimpled chads; and even other precincts included ballots in the count that had votes for both candidates, trying to determine which mark was a stronger mark for which candidate and only counting that vote •The case made it to the U.S. Supreme Court by early December. The U.S. Supreme Court ordered Florida to halt their hand recount until it could decide the outcome of the case. •The U.S. Supreme Court held that the Florida Supreme Court should have done the hand recount across the entire state, and that they should have had a uniform method for conducting the hand recount. This meant that Gore should be allowed to have another hand recount that was done correctly. •However, the U.S. Supreme Court held that time was a critical issue since each state's election results were due to the Electoral College by mid-December (mere days away) and the president takes office on January 20th. This left Florida with not enough time to do an accurate hand recount across the entire state. •As such, the U.S. Supreme Court held that the election results where bush won Florida by 537 votes would have to stand, making Bush the winner of the popular vote of Florida and the winner of all of its electoral votes; and therefore, the ultimate winner in the Electoral College (271 to 266), and the president-elect of the United States. •The U.S. Supreme Court also held that the decision in this case could not be used as a precedent in deciding future cases that are similar. •This was highly unusual since virtually any U.S. Supreme Court decision may end up being a precedent on a given legal issue. •Some people interpreted this action as the U.S. Supreme Court making a special decision that would give the election to Bush. •Others interpreted this action as the U.S. Supreme Court implying that the states need to do a better job handling elections and recounts so that the U.S. Supreme Court will not have to deal with similar recount problems in the future. Essentially, the majority in this case did not want federal intervention in states' administration of elections.

Party Conventions

•The out-of-power party holds its convention first, and the party-in-power (the party of the president) holds its convention last. The exact dates vary election-cycle by election-cycle. •Conventions have become four-day long media extravaganzas with few surprises and tight scripts designed to emphasize party unity and consensus. •Democratic delegates to the conventions tend to be more liberal than the rank and file, and Republican delegates tend to be more conservative. •Delegates for both party conventions also tend to be better educated and wealthier than average Americans.

Why is Voter Turnout so Low?

•Voter turnout is the U.S. is the lowest in the industrialized world for a variety of reasons: •People say they are too busy. -This is usually a cop-out because most states have early voting and absentee voting. Plus, on election day, the voting places are open the majority of the day. •It is difficult to register- In many countries, it is automatic or the government does it for you. However, this argument is weak in states like Texas where around 80% of the voting age population is registered to vote and the registration process is very accessible. •Difficulty of absentee voting - In some states voters have to get the absentee ballot in person, defeating the purpose of having an absentee ballot. •Number of elections- There are elections of some sort every year, and there are elections throughout the year. Primaries typically take place January through May (depending on which state you live in), run-offs typically take place in May or June, and the General Elections are typically in November. •Voter attitudes- Some don't vote because they feel alienated, because they don't like either candidate, or they feel their vote doesn't matter. •Weak political parties. •The timing of presidential primaries. - Some states (like Texas) hold their Presidential Primaries relatively late in the primary season, after the winners for both parties have already been decided, making voters feel like they don't need to vote because the most important race on the ballot has already been decided. •The fact that some states are not battle-ground states in presidential elections.

2016 thots cont.

•What impact did Bernie Sanders' voters and third party voters have on the election outcomes? They might have been the difference in the key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. •Though much is made about Trump getting white blue-collar workers to turn-out for him, the election may have actually been lost for Clinton in her failure to get the "Obama coalition" (especially minorities) to turn out for her in the same numbers that Obama got in 2008 and 2012. •Will Trump's mastery of social media (especially Twitter) have an impact on how future campaigns are ran? Will candidates feel the need to raise tons of campaign dollars, when they can rely heavily on free social media? •How will the battle between "traditional Republicans" and "Trump Republicans" play out in the future? •How will Democrats regroup? Can they grow their numbers amongst white blue-collar workers? Who are the fresh new faces for the party? •For the second time in 16 years, a candidate won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote. Will there finally be a movement to abolish the Electoral College, and instead elect the president through the popular vote? It is unlikely to happen any time soon since Republicans benefited from the Electoral College both times, and they controlled the presidency, the U.S. Senate, and the majority of the state legislatures during his first two years in office (it would take a Constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College, and that requires 2/3 of both houses of Congress, and 3/4 of the states).