Risk Assessment
What are some Disadvantages
- Can be insensitive to change e.g.uses only static and not dynamic variables-dynamic variables have a strong contribution but often not considered Does not take idiosyncratic situations into account Optimization can restrict generalization-more we try to make it as specific as possible the less likely it is that we are able to generalize
Psychopathy Why is psychopathy one of the most powerful risk markers
-Based on personality traits more than observable behaviour- Psychopathy not a disorder but a trait identified through testing -Violence of psychopaths distinguishable from violence of others 1. Retribution and revenge violence -they do not follow restraining orders/orders of protection, very impulsive and fixated upon revenge and retribution, not able to learn from punishment 2. High density offenders -responsible for 50% of the on duty cop killings commit all kinds of offences 3. Recidivate with highest frequency Those high in psychopathy 4x more likely to recidivate hard to diagnose because they are practiced liars , don't learn from punishment perpetuate both instrumental and reactive violence equal opportunity abusers- children, wife, family, co-workers
Example of Risk Markers UnEmployment
-especially for men, more likely to perpetuate crime to make money low self esteem when unemployed especially for men- may make them overly sensitive more likely to use violence to establish dominance
Example of Risk Markers Gender
90% of violent crime committed by men but -there is selective enforcement- men more likely to get arrested and charged with assault vs women also men are simply more violent may be women mature faster and less likely to be violent violence and testosterone- high testosterone and low serotonin= more aggressive - men have more testosterone - high testosterone more aggressive, impulsive low serotonin-very sensitive to everything, loose temper easier women more likely to be victims of violent crime and sexual crimes at all ages in psychiatric population-violence between men and women equal
Structured Clinical/Professional Judgment
Attempt to find middle ground between the actuarial approach and clinical prediction. Structured professional judgment involves the consideration of specific risk factors, which are usually derived from empirical research as well as from clinical experience. This approach does not incorporate the weighting of risk factors, but rather depends on the evaluator for the final decision of risk. items not empirically optimized (weighted) = more ability for clinicians to decide on the weight- can decide that the drug use is the main issue
Wha are some disadvantages of the Clinical prediction method
Base Rates Ignores base rates and statistics-base rates refer to how frequently something happens— in this case, we are referring to a specific behaviour, such as a violent act decisions not based on emprical data -low accuracy Using psychiatric symptoms and diagnoses as important factors- independent clinicians may focus on dissimilar sources of information and subsequently form disparate conclusions -low consistency subjective clinicians may or may not attend to variables that actually relate to violent behavior Rarely have follow-up experience lack of feedback about success or failure. When clinical psychologists make predictions about whether or not an individual will later become violent, they rarely find out whether the individual actually becomes violent at some later time Without clear data on the accuracy of their predictions, clinicians are left to rely on biased thinking -low transparency-do not know how risk factors were weighed. Was a lot of emphasis placed on drug abuse or something else
What are some of the methods for risk assessment
Clinical prediction Structured clinical/professional judgment (often referred to as SPJ) Actuarial prediction
Outline the differences between Risk Assessment and Dangerousness
Dangerousness 1.Case by case basis- look at someone, their crime and the case to determine whether he/she is dangerous 2.Vague-Difficult to define dangerousness-dangerousness dependent upon situational factors and not personality factors 3.stable trait - dangerousness does not change over time, someone is either dangerous or not but dependent on situational factors as well 4.predicts violence- accurate predictor of future violence
Example of Risk Markers Delinquency
Delinquency often involves juvenile- crimes truancy, delinquent behaviour, If we see Maladjustment in youth and during adolescence and important stages of socialization example- suspension, detentions, problems with authority etc- tells us about a pattern of behavior that begins in chilhood But want to make sure that it's just not a phase/stage the child is going through - Putting them into the CJS at a young age makes it difficult to rehabilitate them Important to distinguish between lifetime prevalence vs adolescent onset conduct disorder lifetime prevalence- delinquency and conduct disorder diagnosed at a young age, example 5 years- difficult to rehabilitate such persons but adolescent onset conduct disorder-with adolescence onset there is a greater chance at changing/turning person around, usually ends at the end of adolescence
Example of Risk Markers Substance Abuse
Drugs and alcohol Why is substance abuse tied to criminal behaviour 1-addiction to drug- need to get drug, need to get money to obtain drug, example prostitution -90% prostitutes are drug addicts -prostitute to make money for drugs 2-when on the drug, decision making affected, affect perception of reality 3- often use drugs to do crimes example-drinking alcohol-liquid courage drugs taken as inhibitors to commit crimes alcohol lubricant for crime, especially sexual assault
What are dynamic factors commonly used for
Dynamic factors are candidates for monitoring and intervention efforts, but Insufficient research to date Hanson- anxiety, prediction rate only r= 0.4 not very predictive
What are risk markers?
Factors that have been found to play a role/contribute to violent behaviour/tendencies merely contributing factors and may not be a direct cause
Example of Risk Markers Sexual deviance
Good risk marker for sexual crime and violence but not general violence sexual deviance- the more deviant the person is the more likely they are to recidivate want to know- who are the victims, was the individual abused as a child, are they attacking persons outside of family or is it incest
Purpose of Risk Assessment What does risk assessment entail
Identify persons likely to commit violence and develop interventions to reduce risk
Procedural Aspects of Risk Assessment List the Procedural Aspects of Risk Assessment
Importance of training and expertise- must ensure persons have proper training and expertise, Use Best tool/method for your purpose Utilization of multiple sources of information- more sources the better Must confirm the validity of information- psychopaths are much more likely to lie and manipulate Criminals who score high on the PCL-R more likely to get parole, reduced sentencing etc- because they are very manipulative, know how to get what they want This suggests persons on parole boards need better training esp when dealing with psychopaths
Actuarial Approach What is information from actuarial predictions based on
Information is based on empirically derived data; variables are statistically demonstrated to predict risk e.g. variables can predict violence or sexual over a specified period of time Objective methods of combining data to make decisions explicit, structured-same for everyone, systematic Uses Statistical procedures used in development-procedures improved overtime Initially test large number of variables that are considered important based on experimental data and research, use static risk factors because they do not change
What are some Acturial Approach tools
ODARA- ontario domestic abuse risk assessmen VRAG-Violence Risk Appraisal Guide is an actuarial risk assessment tool to assess long-term risk for violence SORAG- Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide STATIC-99-use with adult male sexual offenders who are at least 18 year of age at time of release to the community.
Example of Risk Markers Previous Antisocial and Criminal Behavior
One of the greatest predictors of future behavior is past behavior because it shows a pattern past violence predicts future violence even non violentcrime also predicts future violence however it is not always the best predictor also because some has been put into criminal justice system, they are more likely to get arrested, charged, convicted etc more likely to recidivate
Wha are some advantages of the Clinical prediction method
Permission to use idiosyncratic items idiosyncratic items- something that does not happen very often it has happened one time to this person specifically example-converted to Islam, found God Ethical Flexible allows the professional to consider the offender's specific behaviours and circumstances in the development of specific violence prevention strategies
How do we define violence? List the various characteristics that should be considered
Physical injury vs. psychological damage Physical damage easy to assess Psychological damage- example- someone secretly recording you in shower, live streaming- no physical damage, but Psychological damage present sometimes difficult to quantify psychological damage Death threats etc.-violent acts, does not have to be physical injury, must look at intent • Actual harm vs. intent - must focus on the intent- transfer of intent -actual harm easy to assess • Instrumental vs.reactive-both should be considered violence -instrumental violence- doing it for a reward or to avoid punishment or for a goal Example-hit man killing someone for money -reactive violence- most common form- done because we are emotionally provoked, lost our temper violence not for personal gain • Sexual vs. non-sexual Must determine whether the violence is sexual vs non-sexual High levels of recidivism in sexual violence- sex drive does not automatically shut down even if persons on hormone blocking medications, individual may still commit crime again example- pedophiles are dangers to society, but may not want to act on their fantasies but a pedophile who scores high in psychopathy definite danger- prolific offenders
What are some examples of protective factors? What is the most powerful protective factor
Positive peer relations- most powerful protective- pro-social peer group -peer group that does things that are acceptable, no drugs, no crime chances to model friends exceedingly higher If you hang out with antisocial peers who commit crime, do drugs- more likely to follow - Good school achievement- if you can excel at 3 R,- reading writing, arithmetic, good outcome those who do not do well at school, will have trouble with socialization, hurts self esteem - Effective use of leisure time -joining clubs, volunteering idle hands Positive response to authority-if you respond well to authority
Why is predicting future violence often difficult ?
Predicting future behavior is extremely difficult-Fundamental Attribution Error tendency to explain someone's behavior based on internal factors, such as personality or disposition, and to underestimate the influence that external factors, such as situational influence it therefore becomes difficult to assess risk properly
Purpose of Risk Assessment Why do we measure it?
Protect society and the person- individual may harm themselves and others To help inform decisions regarding: ( often difficult because predicting human behavior can be hard) -Threat posed by an individual to others Treatment options -intensity, modality, and targeting of treatment - intensity: - hospitalized every day,ankle bracelet, impatient, group therapy, individual therapy etc. modality: - in hospital, private clinic, chemically castrate sexual offenders, CBT targeting: - target what is causing the violent problems- such as drug or alcohol history Justice decisions -bail, detention, LTO-long-term offender or DO-dangerous offender status Sentencing and dispositional planning sentencing - should they get probation, condition discharge, community service, jail or prison? etc.
What are protective factors
Protective factors are static/dynamic factors that ameliorate the effects of risk factors Statistically associated with lower levels of reoffending/more positive overall adjustment
Example of Risk Markers Psychopathy
Psychopathy - one of the most powerful risk markers Psychopathy is measured using the PCL-R Traits -lack of empathy -deceitful and manipulative -impulsive -lack of remorse/guilt Psychoapathy problems as a risk marker :only a small percentage of individuals, less than 1% of population, therefore vast majority of people committing crimes are not psychopathic but for those who are psychopathic it is a great predictor
What are some advantages of the Actuarial Approach
Reliable-Because actuarial procedures use explicit rules for combining risk factors, they yield the same decision regardless of who uses them -replaceable Given the presence of the same risk factors across cases, they yield the same outcome. Validity-high predictive validity because they weigh variables according to their relationship with violence objective scientific- risk factors are determined based on empirical data
Outline the differences between Risk Assessment and Dangerousness?
Risk Assessment 1.based on empirical data-who else has committed these crimes, what risk markers are present, what is the likelihood of the crime occurring again 2.specific look at the types of offenders and types of victims, look at the context and situations that make them likely to be violent/commit crime look at what type of risk, offence, who is the victim Example-person is dangerous when they are drinking, or in presence with children 3.-changes over time -moved by situational factors and can change -youth are more impulsive and more likely to commit crimes, as we get older we become less violent Example- BTK- simply stopped killing people, never got caught- assume that he got old and the urge that drove him to kill people went away as he got older 4.prevents violence - want to know how to prevent violence, what to know the situations that cause persons to be more violent and how can we prevent it from happening example- restraining orders, conditions in parole-not drinking alcohol, staying away from school
What is risk ? When is it used
Risk refers to a condition that exists as a function of the presence of someone/something perceived as dangerous Risk used to do dangerousness assessment tests- considers if someone is dangerous or not Risk assessment allows you to determine when persons are dangerous example-dangerous when drinking, or dangerous when upset
Example of Risk Markers Dysfunctional family environment
Setting aside sexual abuse but focusing on neglect, emotional abuse, divorce, high conflict in family divorce- how the divorce is conducted often difficult, there is high conflict between parents children lack a sense of individuality from their parent at different stages of development, they sometimes feel that they are their parents therefore they often internalize insults and this has damaging effects on children children learn that fighting and name calling acceptable they also mimic what parents do
What are static risk factors good predictors of
Static risk factors are good predictors of long-term sexual recidivism Hanson - more prior sexual offences, the more likely you are to recidivate
Describe the Actuarial Approach method
The actuarial method is based on the use of predictive, or static risk factors from specific empirical research. These risk factors are assigned a numerical value and a total score is generated through an algorithm. The total score is then used to estimate the probability that the individual will re-offend within a specific time period The assessor can also determine the individual's level of risk relative to similar offenders Likelihood of violence expressed as a relative probability- high probability=high risk high risk when exposed to alcohol Commonly used by insurance companies
Example of Risk Markers Conditional release, parole and probation violation
These persons have been involved in the criminal justice system but have been given a chance/released However, these persons often violate conditions of probation, parole etc. Example: DUIs and given a conditional release;no drinking, attend rehab program etc- persons often violate these conditions Parole and probation violations - usually common in persons who have a lack in impulse control / low impulse control can't control behaviour very well therefore unable to stick to conditions
How is Prediction described in the Forensic Context
To predict is to to make a statement about the likelihood of a future event or behaviour
What are some risk assessment tools used
VRAG-Violence Risk Appraisal Guide is an actuarial risk assessment tool to assess long-term risk for violence SORAG- Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide Used to inform about risk markers
What is risk assessment
Violence risk assessment involves assessing an individual's likelihood of committing future violence. Often difficult because it deals with the individual's life and liberty. Make predictions to determine whether an individual should remain in jail or civil commitment or be released. also "The process of identifying and studying hazards to reduce the probability of their occurrence."
Example of Risk Markers Age
age inversely related to risk ages 18-26 constitutes 10% of the population but responsible for 15-20% of violence, But When they get older-less likely to be violent - past 30 violence decrease Testosterone and Violence Correlation Testosterone levels follow the same pattern as violence levels -testosterone spikes in adolescence and drops after age 30
Example of Risk Markers Lack of intimate relationships
anti social,unable to maintain relationships with individuals, no ties to others in society (parents, spouses, kids) no ties, no responsibility and persons to hold them accountable make them more likely to engage in crime
Describe the Clinical prediction method
involves a review of the info about a person - the clinician uses experience and/or intuition to make a judgment about future risk Persons making the assessment have discretion in terms of selecting risk factors to consider and how to interpret information to render decisions. As such, this method is inherently informal and subjective.
Example of Risk Markers Mental illness - schizophrenia and mania
mental illness not a very good risk marker but used because of the associations between mental illness and violent crimes less likely to commit violent crimes if they have a mental illness - except schizophrenia and mania if in a psychotic episode but if you have SZ and manic phase of bipolar and going through a psychotic episode, there is - 5x higher reported violence than for normal population In prisons there is a higher incidence of mental illness myth that people with mental illness are more violent -this is false
What are some difficulties associated with predicting human behavior
predicting human behaviour and the future difficult because humans and situations are highly unpredictable -only 10% of crime is violent-vast majority non-violent
What are some advantages of a Structured Clinical/Professional Judgment
score adjustment ensures that a wide variety of information that is specific to a case is considered more flexible than the actuarial approach because the risk factors are chosen based on empirical evidence,the tools are more generalizable than the actuarial approach which sometime focuses on a specific population but still not more accurate than actuarial prediction
How do persons using the clinical prediction communicate the risks
specify the person being either a low, moderate or high risk combination rule for factors in unspecified- must state how psychopathy, criminal history, alcohol abuse intertwine or increase recidivism
Types of Factors: Static What are static factors Provide some examples
static risk factors or historical risk factors Such factors are part of a person's history or are factors that cannot be changed through intervention or over time Examples-past violent behaviour, early onset of first offence,abuse of alcohol or other drugs, arrest history
Example of Risk Markers Physical and sexual abuse as a child
strong predictor for criminal and violent behaviour social leanring -cycle of abuse occurs for 30% of abuse victims -when they grow up more likely to be abusive adult
Types of Factors: Dynamic risk factors Examples
variables that can fluctuate over time must monitor over time as they change and it is difficult to weigh them Examples:Moods attitudes employment alcoholism- may be sober now but likely to drink again
What are some disadvantages of a Structured Clinical/Professional Judgment
• Interpretation issue-someone is giving their opinion therefore may affect consistency, transparency and accuracy final evaluation of risk is left to the assessor, the approach is more subjective than basing the decision of risk on a total score (as is the case in the actuarial approach) some of the variables/factors included may be limited or not be accurate predictors of violence
