Crim 310 Midterm
Four purposes of the IC
1) Avoid strategic surprise 2) Provide long-term expertise 3) Support the policy process 4) Maintain the secrecy of information, needs and methods
Primary Intelligence Activities
1) Collection 2) Analysis 3) Covert Action 4) Counterintelligence
Analytic Process
1) Define problem 2) Generate hypothesis 3) Determine information needs 4) Gather information 5) Evaluate sources 6) Test hypothesis 7) Production and packaging 8) Peer review 9) Customer feedback and production evaluation
Zimmerman Telegram case study (Themes)
1) Lots of secrecy and deception 2) Protecting methods and sources 3) We spy on our allies
Good intelligence is....
1) Timely 2)Tailored 3) Clear/Known/Unknown 4) Digestable
National Security Agency
A cryptologic intelligence agency of the US Department of Defense responsible for the collection and analysis of foreign communications, foreign signals intelligence, protecting US govt. communications and information systems, and involves information security
Corona
A series of American strategic reconnaissance satellites
Themes within Collection
All collection involves risk Budget constraints Long lead times to develop systems Collection synergy (stovepipes vs. all source) Collection swarm ball Vacuum cleaner problem (signal vs. noise) Competing collection priorities
Analytic Tradecraft
Analysis has to be rigorous and systematic (auditable and defendable, critcal, and reasoned)
What makes a good analyst?
Analyst fungibility Ability to say "I don't know" Experience on subject matter On the ground experience Language skills Management Training Mindset Intellect
The three all-source intelligence agencies
Central Intelligence Agency Defense Intelligence Agency Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Central Intelligence Agency
Coordinate intelligence activities - the only independent agency
Confidential Classification
Damage to national security and foreign relations
National Reconnaissance Office
Develop, build, launch and operate the nation's spy satellites
Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2003
Established the Director of National Intelligence and improved intelligence analysis
Top Secret Classification
Exceptionally grave damage to national security and foreign language
Perceptual Biases
Expectations, Resistance, Missing Information, Discredited Information
National Technical Means
Heavy reliance on technology during the Cold War
James Angleton
In charge of counterintelligence at the CIA during the 1970s. He changed the structure of the CIA and tore it apart looking for a particular spy that reportedly never existed.
Intelligence
Information that has been collected, processed, and narrowed to meet the stated needs of policy makers
All source Intelligence
Intelligence based on as many collection sources as possible to compensate for the short comings of each and to profit from their combined strength
Black Chamber Case Study (Themes)
Led to the partial disarmament of Japanese battleships (10:10:6) 1)Protect methods and sources 2) Biggest threat can be domestic - come from within the government 3) Treaties/disarmament can work
Washington Naval Conference
Naval disarmament
ODNI Intelligence Reforms
Objectivity Independent of political considerations Timeliness Based on all available sources of intelligence Exhibits proper standards of analytical tradecraft
Cognitive Biases
Overconfidence, Attribution
FBIS
Proceeds FBMS
Intelligence Analysis
Process of taking known information about situations or entities of strategic, operational, or tactical importance, characterizing the known , and, with appropriate statements of probability, the future actions in these situations and by those entities
U-2
Run by the CIA Super useful in gathering intelligence Fly above the range of Soviet Radar*, missiles and interceptors
Technical Collection
Sensors Platforms that carry sensors Targets Product from collection activities Value of intelligence Limitations of technical collections
Secret Classification
Serious damage to national security and foreign relations
Mysteries
Something that no one knows
Secrets
Something that someone knows but is trying to keep unknown from others Protects sources and methods
Bomber-Missile Gap
Statement made by JFK that the US had fallen behind the Soviet Union in nuclear weapons production Eisenhower let him tell this to the public (even though it was not true) because he did not want to sacrifice this information
Tactical
Supports direct military operations in very small location/area Timetable: Weeks, days, hours
Operational
Supports specific operation in a county/area Timetable: Year or less
Strategic
Supports the planning process; big-picture, region specific Timetable: Years or more
Words of Estimative Probability
Terms used to convey the likelihood of a future event occuring
The Cold War caused problems for the IC in which ways?
The IC lost analysts and experienced personnel
Problem with the Intelligence CYcle as the process?
The Intelligence cycle is not a linear sequence of events; many of the different components can actually out of the order that they are set up in. For example, information could be collected through a means of geospatial intelligence and then it could automatically enter the analysis and production phase, skipping the processing and exploitation phase
Wheat vs Chaff Problem
There is a lot of intelligence being collected; likewise, there is also a lot of intelligence that is not being processed and exploited. As a result this information is just stored and the FBI has a 10 month backlog on information. The chaff is the information that is stored and the wheat is the needed pieces of intelligence. In order tor each the wheat, we much search the through the chaff.
Processing and Exploitation theme
There is an imbalance that exists with p and e The NSA records millions of events daily, but the FBI has a 10 month backlog in translations
Analytical Stovepipes
There is expressed difficulty in sharing information across the different agencies due to different means of collection and rivalry across agencies
