Energy Security

Choke Points

Narrow necks of ocean for trade (e.g. Suez Canal, Panama Canal), that are usually key geopolitical strongholds as they are easy to control, and if need be, disrupt.

Wind power

The use of wind to generate electricity using wind turbines.

1) To What Extent are Domestic Energy Resources Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries?

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2) Using named examples, evaluate the economic and political impacts of disruption to energy supply pathways.

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Name all of the choke points?

7 choke points: Strait of Hormuz; Straits of Malacca; Suez Canal; Danish Straits; Turkish Straits; Bab al Mandab; Panama Canal

Coal

A combustible, sedimentary rock formed of converted residual plant matter and solidified below overlying rock strata.

Gas

A methane rich gas found underground.

MEDC trends in global energy demand

De-Industrialisation and increasing energy efficiency in MEDC's in general has resulted in a relatively small increase in demand compared with NICs. In fact, Germany and the UK actually show a decrease.

Limitations of wind power (2)

Diluteness problem and Intermittency problem.

Limitations of solar power (2)

Diluteness problem and intermittency problem

Solar power

Energy directly harnessed from solar radiation, indirectly driven by the sun. Solar radiation is absorbed by a collector and converted to heat energy.

Geothermal power

Energy from rocks within the Earth in the form of either Hot water or steam. or Hot dry rock energy.

Ocean power

Energy harnessed by using either the physical characteristics of oceans (tidal movement, wave motion, thermal gradients) or their chemical characteristics (salt gradients).

Hydrological power

Energy harnessed from the movement of water through rivers, lakes and ams

Types of coal

Hard/bituminous coal, brown coal and peat.

Distribution of hydro electric power

Hydroelectric power provides almost one-fifth of the world's electricity. China, Canada, Brazil, the United States, and Russia were the five largest producers of hydropower in 2004.

Limitations of hydrological power (2)

Large scale systems are costly to build. Dam-building also has social political and environmental impacts.

Benefits of shale gas

Most people see it as a transitional fuel - this refers to the transition from oil and coal more to nuclear and renewables. It gives us a short term fix which gives us time to figure out long term solutions.

Biomass power

Organic, non-fossil material of biological origin, e.g. wood.

Variable energy patterns over time

Technological development Increasing national wealth Changes in demand Changes in price Environmental changes

Distribution of geothermal energy

The number of countries producing power from this source rose from around 21 in 2000 to 46 in 2010. The USA is the world leader in geothermal electricity with plants in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Nevada and Utah. Total production accounts for 0.37% of the electricity used in the USA.

3) Assess the relative importance of named players in the global supply of energy

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4) Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply.

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5) Using named examples, assess the extent to which fossil fuels could be replaced by renewable energy sources in the future.

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6) To what extent do all renewable and recyclable energy resources have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

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7) Using named examples, assess the extent to which energy insecurity might lead to conflicts both within and between countries.

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8) Using named examples, evaluate the contribution radical energy technologies and policies might make to a more sustainable energy future.

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How many people live without electricity?

1.6 Billion

How many people in the world don't have access to a modern energy supply?

2 Billion

Piracy case study

2012: 297 ships attacked, 174 boarded; mostly east and west Africa. In 2014, the area of fastest growth in terms of oil tanker piracy is the Gulf of Guinea. Estimated total damages US$12 billion (not all oil) Oil industry writes off the cost of such attacks in annual financial plans; effectively distributing the cost across the market (i.e. forcing global price up). In the Indian Ocean alone there are about 120 private security operations (employing about 2,700 people). Often, these oil tankers have a very small crew with limited security.

Economic Impact on Developed World due to disruption of energy pathways

A disruption to energy supply pathways may force governments of developed countries to look to developing their domestic resources, which may require significant economic investment, such as is the case with UK's £18bn Hinkley Point C proposal. Countries dependant on revenues from energy resources can become almost economically paralysed by a serious disruption to energy supply pathways, which has serious secondary consequences: economic recession, unemployment and political instability. For example, a disruption to the energy supply lines would prevent Russia from supplying the EU with gas, would severely damage Russia's economy.

Oil

A naturally occurring mineral oil consisting of many types of hydrocarbons.

A sustainable energy future definition

A sustainable energy future is one which provides the energy people need at reasonable cost, but in way that doesn't damage the environment for future generations in the same way as fossil fuels do.

How might energy insecurity not lead to conflict?

Although energy insecurity has a strong potential to cause tensions, the picture is not black and white and there is evidence that countries and interest groups are able to foster cooperation on energy relation matters. For example, the Kyoto Protocol shows a unity of countries and the ability to make decisions together. With energy running out, it is clear that the core countries want to make moves to help developing nations as well, such as China's investment in Sudan's pipelines. Therefore, there is potential for energy security to unite countries as well as alienate them.

Where are the world's biggest shale gas reserves?

Although the shale gas potential of many nations is being studied, as of 2013, only the US, Canada, and China produce shale gas in commercial quantities, and only the US and Canada have significant shale gas production. While China has ambitious plans to dramatically increase its shale gas production, these efforts have been checked by inadequate access to technology, water, and land. Shale gas has become an increasingly important source of natural gas in the United States since the start of this century, and interest has spread to potential gas shales in the rest of the world. In 2000 shale gas provided only 1% of U.S. natural gas production; by 2010 it was over 20% and the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration predicts that by 2035, 46% of the United States' natural gas supply will come from shale gas. Russia has the largest shale oil reserves with 75 billion of the 345 billion barrels of shale oil, followed second by the USA, which has 58 billion barrels of oil. China, Argentina and Libya follow in their respective order. A lot of this reinforces patterns of global energy dominance.

Advantages of nuclear

An significant advantage of nuclear is that it does not produce greenhouse gas emissions, although there are some emissions associated with plant construction and uranium mining. Uranium is relatively cheap and easy mine, and most commentators think that reserves are plentiful and will last for up to 150 years Because it is used in small quantities, uranium is also cost effective to transport. Reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels Nuclear power plants provide a stable base load of energy. This can work synergistic with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. The electricity production from the plants can be lowered when good wind and solar resources are available and cranked up when the demand is high. Nuclear technology has already been adopted by several countries around the world. China produces 6,600 MW of power from nine reactors India has 15 operating nuclear power plants with eight more under construction. France obtains 78% of its electricity from nuclear power and is thinking about replacing its older plants with new ones.

To what extent does wind power have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

As a renewable source of energy, wind energy is plentiful, widely distributed and clean, and it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels as a source of electricity. Fluctuations in wind speeds seldom create problems when wind power is used to supply a low proportion of total demand. However, even wind farms have environmental and social costs. Socially, people are concerned that huge turbines located nearby could blight their homes and have a significant impact on property values, whilst, on an environmental level, turbines can kill birds and offshore wind farms can create artificial coral reefs which disturbs existing marine ecosystems. Thus, whilst there are social and environmental costs associated with wind power, these are outweighed by the environmental benefits when compared with fossil fuels, as wind power does not release and greenhouse gases.

Increasing national wealth (energy patterns)

As average incomes increase, living standards improve. This involves the increasing use of energy and the use of a greater variety of energy sources.

Consequences of exploiting new areas case study: The Arctic Circle

As global warming causes the polar ice to recede, potentially oil-rich sea-beds are being uncovered beneath the Arctic circle. Some estimates say up to 25% of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas may be located here. UN Law of the Sea Convention: Countries, such as the eight Arctic states, are allowed to exploit offshore resources within 200 nautical milers of their territory. This limit can be extended if a country can prove the ocean is connected to their land - and is similar geologically. Russia's first attempt to push its borders was rejected by the UN in 2001. The Lomonosov Ridge: The Lomonosov Ridge is about 100 miles wide and zig-zags through the ocean between Russia and Greenland. When the Russian submarines planted their flag on the ridge in August 2007, they also took away geological samples to try to prove that the ridge is part of the Russian continental shelf. The big issue is who can lay claim to which parts of the ocean. Russia has claimed nearly half the Arctic - and granted a monopoly to its own countries to exploit it. Denmark has objected, saying it too has rights to the area. Other countries, such as the USA, Canada and Norway have failed to recognise the legitimacy of the Russian claim. The US geological survey has calculated that a billion-barrel field would cost around $37 per barrel to extract. By comparison, it costs around $2 per barrel to pump oil in Saudi Arabia, and $5-7 in Venezuela. Environmental groups want UN protection for Arctic wildlife and ecosystems. Oil spills would be a major concern in this fragile environment. There are many concerns, including: Spill cleanup is impossible: There is no proven effective method for containing and cleaning up an oil spill in icy water. We can't respond quickly to a spill: The difficult conditions of the Arctic, and its distance from where response capacity is stationed mean it can take days or weeks to respond to a spill, even during ice-free periods. Spill recovery is slow: The Arctic is characterized by a short productive season, low temperatures, and limited sunlight. As a result, it can take many decades for Arctic regions to recover from habitat disruption, tundra disturbance and oil spills. Economically and culturally important species are at risk: Offshore oil exploration, drilling and production can disturb the fish and animals that are cornerstones of the subsistence and cultural livelihoods of Indigenous peoples in the Arctic. Arctic fisheries, providing both food and economic value far beyond the Arctic, are also at risk. Ocean noise can injure marine mammals: Whales and other marine mammals use sound to navigate, find mates, and find food in the often dark waters of the ocean. Seismic noises, like the air gun used by oil and gas companies to explore for oil offshore, can be deafening for these species. Excessive ocean noise from oil and gas exploration and drilling could cause injury, confusion, and even death.

Managing Future Energy Needs through biofuels

At a time of growing global demand for food and concerns about food security, growing crops for use as biofuels is controversial. There are three main types of biofuel: crops (such as grasses, maize and sugarcane), trees and algae. Grasses and trees need a lot of processing, but the whole of their biomass is converted into fuel - mostly ethanol. Aquatic algae are trickier to grow, but produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes useful biodiesel. A number of challenges must be overcome in order to improve the efficiency and acceptability of the biofuel industry: New (re-engineered) crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel rather than food production. The supply chain for biofuels can be costly, making them uncompetitive with traditional fossil fuels. A range of small and large scale bio-refineries is needed to improve logistics within the supply chain. The competition between food crops and biofuel crops for agricultural space needs to be addressed, especially where it is likely to encourage large-scale deforestation (e.g. in Brazil and other tropical countries) and food shortages.

Changes in demand (energy patterns)

At one time all of Britain's trains were powered by coal and most people also used coal for heating in their homes. Before natural gas was discovered in the North Sea, Britain's gas was produced from coal (coal gas)

How much coal is transported compared to oil and gas?

At the moment, far less coal is moved than oil and gas. However, there is a prospect of greater movements of coal, if only because supplies seem more dependable and less threatened by geopolitical considerations.

To what extent does biomass have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

Biomass is a recyclable energy resource has several associated environmental and social impacts. This suggests that recyclable energy resources are environmentally and socially disadvantageous. Firstly, Biomass is environmentally harmful. Biomass acts as a carbon sink, which means the combustion of biofuels to produce energy releases carbon dioxide. Coupled with this, the cultivation of biofuel crops can encourage large-scale deforestation in tropical countries such as Chile. Furthermore, Biomass can have significant social disadvantages in that, in countries where there is a low level of food security, such as in Brazil, this type of energy production uses up agricultural space in order to grow biofuel crops for combustion, rather than crops for food production. This can lead to rising food prices in developing countries. This method does provide significant employment, however, this is small social benefit in the context of more significant social issues. Therefore the costs of biomass does suggest that recyclable energy resources have environmental and social costs associated with their development.

Costs of exploiting tar sands

Both mining and processing of tar sands involve a variety of environmental impacts, such as global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, disturbance of mined land; impacts on wildlife and air and water quality. Very energy intensive as bitumen needs to be taken out and sands need to be removed. Tar sands extraction produces 3-4 times more greenhouse gas than conventional oil extraction. The development of a commercial tar sands industry in the U.S. would also have significant social and economic impacts on local communities. Of special concern in the relatively arid western United States is the large amount of water required for tar sands processing; currently, tar sands extraction and processing require several barrels of water for each barrel of oil produced, though some of the water can be recycled. Mass deforestation as large swathes of area are needed to be cleared for the open pit mines. The sar sand are already slated to be the cause of the second fastest rate of deforestation. It leaves a very prominent physical scar on the landscape. Destructive to major boreal forest, an important carbon sink. Two tonnes of mined tar sands are required to produce one barrel of oil, which leaves huge quantities of waste sand and environmental destruction.

Managing Future Energy Needs through offshore wind turbines

Building wind turbines offshore costs at least 50% more than on land, but wind speeds at sea are generally double those on land, so offshore turbines can generate more electricity. Wind blowing at 10 m/s can produce five times as much electricity as a 5 m/s wind. The fact that offshore turbines are less visible and audible than onshore wind farms is an argument in their favour in terms of public opposition. However, UK plans to meet up to ⅓ of future energy needs with offshore wind farms have led to objections from the Ministry of Defence on the grounds that they could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security. Horns Rev, in the North Sea off Denmark, is one of the world's largest offshore wind farms. Opened in 2002, covering an area of 20km2 and costing €270 million to build, it generates 160 MW through its 80 turbines. A prime factor in the selection of this site was the strength of winds from all points of the compass.

How might CCS help to make a more sustainable energy future?

Carbon Capture and Storage is a radical technology which could significantly contribute towards a sustainable energy future. CCS allows coal to be used without releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. This involves 'capturing' the carbon dioxide released by burning coal and burying it deep underground. This therefore allows clean electricity to be produced by coal. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this technique is compounded by coal's economic advantages. It is cheap, abundant and can often be locally sourced, which makes it an attractive commodity. China's coal consumption in 2010 totalled 3.2 billion metric tonnes. However, this technology is largely unproved on a commercial scale and, whilst coal as a commodity is inexpensive, carbon capture technology is costly. A handful of CCS projects have been conducted, but only one such project, in Spremberg, Germany, is linked to electricity generation. Therefore, CCS offers an environmentally sustainable solution to the energy problem, however, until further advances are made, it will remain economically unviable as a large scale sustainable energy solution.

Distribution of Coal

Coal is mined in over 100 countries, and on all continents except Antarctica. The major areas are principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The current share of coal in global power generation is over 40%, but it is expected to decrease in the coming years, while the actual coal consumption in absolute terms will grow. Any reductions in coal are more than offset by the large developing economies, primarily in Asia, which are powered by coal and have significant coal reserves. China alone now uses as much coal as the rest of the world.

The importance of Consumers in the global supply of energy

Consumers are becoming extremely influential in the global supply of energy. In democratic countries, governments are extremely responsive to public opinion. Therefore, the energy policies of countries are to a large extent dictated by the interests of the population. This is evident in countries' previous reluctance to invest in nuclear energy amid public fears over its unsafeness following the Chernobyl disaster, and the reluctance of the UK to implement wind farms in cases of NIMBY opposition. The demand of consumers also directly impacts the amount of energy supplied as governments are inclined to ensure that supply keeps pace with demand. Furthermore, the growing environmental awareness of consumers is having a direct impact on the nature of global energy supply. TNCs are becoming inclined to conform to certain environmental standards in response to changing public attitudes. Apple has invested heavily in solar energy to become completely carbon neutral. Therefore consumers do hold some influence over the global energy supply by influencing the type of energy supply and the amount of energy supplied.

Political factors that influence energy supply and distribution

Countries wanting to develop nuclear electricity require permission from the IAEA. (International Atomic Energy Agency) International agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol can have a considerable influence on the energy decisions of individuals countries. Potential HEP schemes on 'international rivers' may require the agreement of all countries. Governments may insist on energy companies producing a certain proportion of their energy from renewable sources.

Increasing Reliance on Other Countries due to disruption of energy pathways

Countries which supply other countries with energy can use this power to manipulate and force other countries into actions and policies. Russia's reemergence as a global player lies in its key natural resources, with its control of energy pathways becoming a political tool. In recent years, Ukraine has been trying to move more 'westwards' in its political association and become more a part of the European Bloc than be associated with Russia. However, Russia has been able to keep Ukraine under its "sphere of influence," or stop it from joining the EU, because of the power it wields over the Ukraine by being its principal supplier of energy. However, a dependant energy relationship can only give limited political power - there are still options for the consumer country to diversify their supply in order to reduce the reliance they have on one country, especially considering the possibilities and new technologies that exist in renewable resources.

Physical factors that influence energy supply and distribution

Deposits of fossil fuels are found in only a limited number of locations. Large scale HEP development requires high precipitation, major steep sided valleys and impermeable rock. Solar power needs a large number of days a year with strong sunlight. The availability of biomass varies widely due to climatic conditions.

To What Extent is Domestic renewable energy Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries? Evaluation

Developing renewable energy at home also increases a country's resistance to the changing environmental concerns of the public; a country can avoid needing to alter its energy policy in the future to satisfy public opinion or the international community. Yet, the benefits of renewable energy is limited in that such resources are expensive to develop and often fail to provide a consistent and sufficient supply of energy. Therefore, whilst renewable energy can be beneficial to a country's energy security, developing renewable energy domestically can in some cases further one's dependence on foreign assistance. For example, Hinkley Power Point is costing up to £18 billion with the help of the French and the Chinese.

Why do many countries rely on energy imports?

Due to the geographical mismatch between energy demand and the availability of energy resources

How might emissions control help to make a more sustainable energy future?

Emissions control is also a radical energy policy which has the potential to significantly contribute to a sustainable energy future. Placing limits on the emissions of greenhouse gases not only directly increases the sustainability of global energy production, but enforcing these limits with economic incentives serves to decrease the economic viability of nonrenewable energy sources. This will increase the appeal of non-renewable, greener energy sources by increasing their economic competitiveness. The Kyoto Protocol for instance, is an international emissions agreement, which requires 36 developed countries to achieve specific reductions in their greenhouse emissions, or pay for carbon credits if they are to exceed these limits. This has increased the appeal of developing renewable energy. Nonetheless, despite the seemingly global nature of this agreement, emissions control has proved difficult to implement on a global scale. The protocol only requires developed countries (Annex 1) to reach emission targets, and the cuts outlined by the Kyoto Protocol are insufficient to combat climate change in the long run. Therefore, whilst emissions controls is a good idea in principle, the global adoption of such restrictions has proved difficult and unsuccessful thus far.

Managing Future Energy Needs through emissions trading

Emissions trading is an arrangement allowing countries that have made greater reductions in their carbon emissions to sell their surplus savings to countries that are over their targets. This has created a new commodity in the form of emission reductions or removals. Since carbon dioxide is the principle greenhouse gas, this is often described as carbon trading. Carbon emissions are now tracked and traded like any other commodity. This is known as the carbon market.

How does energy insecurity might lead to conflict over energy supply lines?

Energy insecurity can also lead to conflict over energy transportation routes, both the countries they go through and the countries they export to. This has caused tension between Russia and Ukraine, which contributed to the recent military conflict between the countries and Russia's eventual annexation of Crimea in 2014. In the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy has been used as a strategic tool by Russia to try wield political control over Ukraine. As Ukraine is heavily dependant on Russia for energy, it is conflicted by its political desires on the one hand of increased European integration and its political needs on the other hand for a stable and cheap energy supply, in the form of Russian Gas. The military conflict of 2014 between Russian militia and the Ukrainian military shows how energy insecurity can be a source of constant political tension and can even cause international conflict and, especially over the transportation of energy between countries.

Disruptions of energy supply pathways..........................

Energy pathways can be complex, and they face risk and disruption as a result of both physical and human causes. The oil crisis of 1973 and the 1970s shocked many countries into developing national and international energy policies. These aimed to reduce the risks of disruption to supplies by geopolitical instability and unforeseen rises in energy prices. After those policies were implemented, most parts of the developed world enjoyed a period of more or less uninterrupted, and generally cheap, energy supplies. Recently there has been a growing nervousness about energy security. Firstly, there has been unprecedented growth in energy demand across the globe. For a long time governments disregarded the impact that economic growth in countries such as China would have on demand and prices. Secondly, there is a growing concern about the security of the energy supply infrastructure. Higher volumes of fuel than ever are being transported over longer distances. This is under threat from terrorism, lack of capacity, wear and tear to the infrastructure, piracy and political rivalries. In order to maintain and pay for the safe transport of energy across international borders, huge amounts of private investment are necessary. In 1991, Iraqi troops retreating from Kuwait at the end of the first Gulf War, set fire to over 600 Kuwaiti oil wells. The fires burned for over 8 months and consumed an estimated 6 billion barrels of oil a day. This had a major impact on Kuwait's oil production in 1991-2. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina affected oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil and petrol prices rose as a direct result. In 2006-8, disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted gas supplies to Western Europe. Thirdly, energy markets do not always behave as expected. The Iran Iraq War of 1980-88 had a relatively limited impact on oil supplies and prices, yet more recently oil prices have jumped at the mention of strikes in Nigeria, elections in Venezuela or cyclones in the Caribbean.

Who are reliant on energy imports?

Europe, Asia and the Asia-Pacific region

Political concerns: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply). xxx

Firstly, a country's energy policy is influenced by its relations with other states, as it is in the interests of a country to avoid becoming economically and therefore politically reliant on countries which may act in hostile manner in the future. For example, tensions in Ukraine over Russia's natural gas pipeline has encouraged European countries to look to alternative sources of energy to prevent them from becoming subject to Russian aggression. Furthermore, a country's political landscape influences the government's responsiveness to changing public opinion. Whereas the UK's democratic political environment means that its energy policy decisions are extremely responsive to environmental concerns, as demonstrated by its growing investment in wind energy, China's authoritarian leadership has enabled it to neglect public concern and invest heavily in the coal industry. Therefore, politics is constantly changing energy supply.

How does energy insecurity lead to conflicts within countries?

Firstly, energy insecurity can cause conflict of varying intensities on a national scale. On one extreme, energy insecurity can bring the potential of armed conflict, as shown in a dispute between Iraq and Kurdish forces in 2013. This dispute increased political tension almost to the point of military conflict, when a Kurdish truck delivered crude oil to the Turkish port of Mursin, marking the first time the KRG has exported oil directly to world markets. This dispute led to troops being mobilised on both sides as each prepared for the possibility of military conflict. Although the conflict between Iraqi's and Kurd's is also caused by religious and ethnic differences, this is an example of energy insecurity, in the form of uncertainty over the ownership of oil, exacerbating pre-existing tensions within a country. Thus, energy insecurity can be a catalyst in causing conflict, whether military or political, between already opposing groups with a country. Coupled with this, energy insecurity has also led to conflict in the United Kingdom. Whilst this conflict has not manifested itself in the same way as in Iraq, it has led to political disputes and tension between groups supporting wind projects and local people who oppose wind turbines in their local areas. This can be seen in July 2012, whereby residents of Kings County rallied against the construction of wind turbines, as well as in September 2009 in Digby Neck. This shows how energy insecurity can both exacerbate existing conflicts within countries or cause new tensions over the sensitive issue of changing local infrastructure.

Why won't coal be replaced by renewable energy sources in the future?

Firstly, the economic viability of using coal to maintain energy security suggests that fossil fuels are unlikely to be replaced by renewable energy sources in the near future. Many countries are increasingly looking towards coal - imported from Poland, Australia and America - as source of energy due to its recent drop in price. For example, China's consumption has doubled since 1990 and is building the equivalent of two coal stations per week. Coupled with this, coal is a reliable source of energy as it provides baseload electricity. Whilst nuclear could offer similar advantages in that it offers a consistent source of energy, it has numerous safety problems, disposal issues and high construction costs, whilst there is also a strong public distrust in this energy type. This suggests that renewable energy will be unable to compete with fossil fuels as alternatives fail to offer the same advantages as coal.

How will the decreasing price of renewables help it replace non-renewable energy sources in the future?

Furthermore, the increasing affordability of renewables increases the viability of replacing fossil fuels with this form of energy. Due to steady increases in the efficiency of wind and solar systems, coupled with the savings achieved through large-scale manufacture, the price of renewables is falling globally. Solar energy is now proving competitive with fossil fuels for generating electricity in many areas. This is confirmed by the fact that the Electricity and Water Authority of oil-rich Dubai recently awarded a $330 million contract to a Saudi firm for construction of a 200-megawatt solar electricity plant, touting its superior price for delivered power over oil and gas-fired plants. Therefore, if renewable energy can replace oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, then renewables can certainly challenge the dominance of oil worldwide.

Future trends (energy patterns)

Future increases in energy demand are unlikely to be even across the globe. China and India are expected to have the largest rises, while countries in western Europe may actually reduce their demands as a result of improved energy efficiency and rising energy costs. Energy consumption in the developing world is expected to double by 2020, while it increases by about ⅓ in the developed world. If this happens, energy consumption in the two 'worlds' will have become roughly equal.

How and why are GAS pathways different to oil pathways?

Gas pathways are different in that they tend to be localised and regional rather than global such is the case with oil. This is because natural gas has traditionally been transported through pipelines, whereas oil is mainly shipped.

Limitations of geothermal power (2)

Geothermal heat in the outer 10 km of the Earth's crust is too diffuse to be exploitable worldwide. Availability is limited to a few locations such as Iceland and the Philippines.

Distribution of wind power

Germany is currently the world leader with 23.7% of global capacity. Germany, the USA and Spain together account for almost 58% of the world total. Wind farms are located in more economically developed countries given the expensive construction and low yield of this form of energy. The largest on-shore wind farms are located in China, the US and India, whilst the UK dominates offshore wind farms.

Key players government taxation

Government taxation is an important component of the price of energy at the petrol pumps. Governments also get large tax revenues when companies produce crude oil and gas. National government taxes in 2007 accounted for 61% of the price of a litre of petrol in the UK.

The importance Governments of in the global supply of energy

Governments play a significant role in determining the global supply of energy, given their economic and political influence on a national and international scale. Firstly, national governments have the power to determine the nature of their country's energy supply as they have complete control of their country's energy policy. The UK government's energy policy, which has become increasingly influenced by ideas of sustainability, has led to significant investment in offshore wind energy. Governments can also introduce regulations, taxes or incentives to limit the use of or aid the development of certain types of energy supply. Also, governments can have an international influence by encouraging other governments and international cooperations to invest in certain energy sources or technologies. For example, growing international pressure has led to China investing heavily in Carbon Capture technology, whilst the Kyoto Protocol has also led to a growing emphasis on renewable methods for supplying energy. Therefore, the role of governments are extremely important in determining energy supply.

How might green taxes help to make a more sustainable energy future?

Green taxes are a new policy which has been implemented to try reduce carbon emissions and thus help secure a more sustainable energy future. In some countries taxation measures, known as 'green taxes', have been introduced with the aim of cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging waste recycling. They could be very significant because they tackle one of the key obstacles to a sustainable energy future, which is the increasing car ownership. In the UK, these include new vehicle excise duties (VED) that tax vehicles according to their level of carbon dioxide emissions. Owners of so-called gas-guzzlers or Chelsea tractors pay more, as do those with older, less-fuel efficient vehicles. This incentivizes people to reduce their emissions, and perhaps could be linked with the increase of electric vehicles in the UK - new registrations of plug-in cars increased from 3,500 in 2013 to 58,000 in April 2016.. Therefore, although this tax is useful, alone it is not significant enough to create a more sustainable energy future. More drastic measures need to be taken to find alternative sources of energy and encourage large industries to reduce using fossil fuels, which will have a more significant impact in creating a sustainable energy future.

To What Extent is Domestic renewable energy Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries? Analysis

Harnessing the potential of renewable energy enables countries to lift their reliance on foreign forms of energy supply as well as on fossil fuels, which are finite and non-renewable. The long term sustainability of renewable energy prevents a country's energy security from becoming vulnerable to a changing international political environment or depleting resources. For example, the UK's development of wind energy has helped to lift its reliance on foreign energy from countries such as Russia, which has increased its energy security.

To What Extent are Domestic fossil fuels Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries? Analysis

Having large domestic reserves gives a country the ability to control its own energy usage and production much more as they are not reliant on foreign imports. China and India both rely heavily on coal, perhaps on a scale that they would not need to import, because they have their own large reserves. A reliance on importing fossil fuels can lead to potential energy insecurity, as imports can be impacted by external factors such as conflict and economic prosperity. This can be clearly shown with the potential energy insecurity in Europe that arises from Europe importing large amounts of energy from Russia, considering the political tension between the two entities. Thus, domestic fossil fuel reserves are important in ensuring high levels of energy security.

Hazards and disasters: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply).

Hazards can damage the viability of both renewable and nonrenewable energy generation techniques by inflicting permanent damage on energy supplies and by changing public attitudes to favour or oppose certain techniques. For example, the 2010 BP oil spill not only resulted in the depletion of oil reserves, but, through its environmental damage, decreased the long-term viability of offshore oil extraction by fostering a public opinion strongly opposed to this method. Similarly, past nuclear disasters have dissuaded investment from nuclear energy towards other more predictable supply types. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster following the Japan Tsunami led the Japanese government to shut down all but two of the country's nuclear power stations.

The importance of TNCs in the global supply of energy

Historically, the energy industry had been dominated by large TNCs such as Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Texaco. Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest energy companies. It successfully lobbied the US government to gain access to federal lands. In fact, Gazprom's input makes up 40% of the EU's total gas supply and 32% of its oil supply, making Russia hugely politically powerful. TNCs provide the link between where resources are situated, and who wants to use them. 25% of oil reserves globally are situated in Saudi Arabia, however, countries in the Middle East are politically unstable. For this reason, TNCs such as BP produce and distribute the oil there and pay a percentage to the state. TNC's can also allow for reserves of energy to be used in poorer countries which do not have the national income to put in place the infrastructure themselves. Moreover, TNC's are responsible for exploration and developing new resources, which therefore has a key role in determining future supplies. Thus, TNC's are vital in the global supply of energy, responsible for exploring new resources, putting infrastructure where necessary and having a large monopoly over global supplies, as shown by the case of Gazprom.

Key players Energy TNCs

Historically, the energy industry had been dominated by large TNCs such as Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Texaco. Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest energy companies. It successfully lobbied the US government to gain access to federal lands. Energy companies comprise six of the ten largest global corporations. Exxon Mobil was the most profitable company in the world in 2007 ($39.5 billion). However, the power of the energy TNCs has been challenged first by OPEC and, more recently, by national energy companies. The large energy companies have come under considerable attack from environmental groups in the past. Companies like BP and Shell have been working hard to foster a more positive public image. Investment in renewable energy has been an important part of this process. If the worst forecasts about non-renewable energy come to pass, the energy TNCs know they have to diversify to remain profitable.

Disadvantages of business as usual

However, continuing at business as usual comes at a cost - burning fossil fuels is almost certainly driving climate change. In 2006, the Stern Review estimated that, under the business-as-usual model, climate change would cost the world 5-20% of global GDP, whereas efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of global warming would cost just 1% of global GDP. Already, global economic losses due to natural disasters appear to be doubling each decade - with annual losses expected to reach $150 billion before long. In addition: A 2-3°C rise in temperature could reduce global economic output by 3% - by reducing crop yields, for example If temperatures rise by as much as 5°C, 10% of global output could be lost, with the poorest countries losing more than 10% because they lack the income to pay for coping strategies - such as storing water in large dams.

Why won't oil & gas be replaced by renewable energy sources in the future?

However, there is growing uncertainty surrounding oil's future sustainability. Discussions and predictions about 'peak oil', whereby oil production is set to reach its maximum rate, has led to countries around the world to look at alternative sources of fuel and energy. Coinciding with this decline, new technologies available in renewable energy are bringing realistic and viable alternatives to oil as a source of energy, especially for transportation. For example, there has been a surge in demand for electric vehicles in the UK - new registrations of plug-in cars increased from 3,500 in 2013 to 58,000 in April 2016, showing the potential for oil to be replaced by alternative sources of energy. Therefore, whilst it is possible for oil to be replaced by renewable energy, it is more likely than in the short term the use of oil will not be replaced but in fact by supplemented by the development of unconventional resources such as Tar Sands and Shale Gas. The shift towards 'fracking' in the USA to provide Shale Gas is evidence of this, as this source of energy is cheap and readily available. However, due to the environmental problems caused by these resources (fracking releases methane gas and toxic chemicals into nearby groundwater ), this does not present a long term solution and there is evidence to suggest that renewables could become a future replacement for fossil fuels. As for the case of natural gas, as well as renewable sources, biomass and bioethanol are also a viable replacement, as shown by the case of Brazil, where biomass is the third largest contributor of energy.

Evaluation: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply).

However, there is some certainty over the future provision of renewable energy. Unlike non-renewable energy, renewable energy production is not dependent on a finite supply of fuel. Therefore, despite day-to-day fluctuations, there is certainty over a long term supply of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy. This is made more significant due to some trends in energy supply, e.g. cop 21 leading to more renewables.

Costs of shale gas

Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking", is the process of drilling and injecting fluid into the ground at a high pressure in order to fracture shale rocks to release natural gas inside. Each gas well requires an average of 400 tanker trucks to carry water and supplies to and from the site. It takes 1-8 million gallons of water. The water brought in is mixed with sand and chemicals to create fracking fluid. Approximately 40,000 gallons of chemicals are used per fracturing. Up to 600 chemicals are used in fracking fluid, including known carcinogens and toxins such as lead, uranium, mercury and radium. During this process, methane gas and toxic chemicals leach out from the system and contaminate nearby groundwater. Methane concentrations are 17x higher in drinking-water wells near fracturing sites than in normal wells. Contaminated well water is used for drinking water for nearby cities and towns. There have been over 1,000 documented cases of water contamination next to areas of gas drilling as well as cases of sensory, respiratory, and neurological damage due to ingested contaminated water. The waste fluid is left in open air pits to evaporate, releasing harmful VOC's (volatile organic compounds) into the atmosphere, creating contaminated air, acid rain, and ground level ozone. In the end, hydraulic fracking produces approximately 300,000 barrels of natural gas a day, but at the price of numerous environmental, safety, and health hazards. Environmental Footprint The oil in shale is not easily separated out, and the immense amount of heat required to do this is usually generated by burning natural gas. This gives the oil-sands industry a greenhouse gas footprint far larger than that of tradition oil.

To What Extent are domestic resources Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries? Conclusion!

In conclusion, domestic energy resources constitute an important factor in the multi-faceted concept of energy security. However, these resources are not the only factor and are certainly not absolutely necessary - high energy security can be achieved through other forms such as trade. Moreover, these resources do not guarantee high energy security alone. Security is dependant on other factors such as the ability to harness these resources and the relationship between a country's supply and demand. Thus, whilst domestic energy resources can be a key part in determining levels of energy security, as shown in the case of Russia, they are not a requisite for energy security as trade remains a viable replacement.

Using named examples, evaluate the economic and political impacts of disruption to energy supply pathways. Conclusion!

In conclusion, given the importance of energy to the functioning of a country, the disruption of energy supply pathways brings significant, primarily negative economic and political impacts. This is because countries are forced to take often damaging measures to avoid energy insecurity in the form of committing economic resources, engaging in military conflict or increasing political reliance on other nations.

What determines energy demand in developing countries.

In developing countries, the economic development and the rate of population growth are important in determining energy demand.

Managing Future Energy Needs through green taxes

In some countries taxation measures, known as 'green taxes', have been introduced with the aim of cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging waste recycling. In the UK, these include new vehicle excise duties (VED) that tax vehicles according to their level of carbon dioxide emissions. Owners of so-called gas-guzzlers or Chelsea tractors pay more, as do those with older, less-fuel efficient vehicles. Other ideas for taxes aimed at reducing energy consumption include removing stamp duty on the sale of carbon neutral homes, raising the duty on petrol and diesel, and raising air passenger duty on flights out of the UK.

Managing Future Energy Needs through geothermal energy

In the Philippines, 25% of the electricity supplied is generated from underground heat. This renewable geothermal heat is free, inexhaustible and available day and night, due to local geology. The heat generates electricity in turbines. Geothermal energy has significant advantages over other renewable resources. There is no need to cover the land with wind turbines or photovoltaic arrays, and many parts of the world (USA, South Australia, Iceland) have the geology to make geothermal energy possible. However, in many locations, the heat is too deep to be extracted economically and the local geology can create problems. For example, the impermeable nature of granite and other igneous rocks makes it technically difficult and expensive to extract heat using water.

Economic Impact on Developing World due to disruption of energy pathways

In the developing world, when energy supply pathways are disrupted, developing countries are faced with more severe energy shortages that developed countries would more easily be able to deal with. As a result, Eskom, South Africa's largest energy provider, began rolling blackouts in 2008. As South Africa relies strongly on the exports of its precious metals to finance its current account deficit the blackouts have led to a strong depreciation of the rand as well as a stalling of economic growth and downward revisions in growth forecasts. Chief economists at Nedbank, estimates the power constraints could shave up to 0.5% off yearly economic growth. Although a faltering economy, such as South Africa's, is not caused by the disruption of the energy supply pathways on its own, an unreliable supply of energy supply does hinder investor confidence, innovation and productivity - key aspects for economic development in a country.

Case Study: Energy Poverty in Two Different Worlds

India: India is fast becoming one of the world's largest energy consumers, but only a small percentage of the population have access to clean, efficient energy systems. In rural areas, most people produce energy by burning hand gathered fuels such as wood. Although this has a low carbon footprint, it is known to cause serious health problems. UK: In the UK, energy poverty takes a rather different form. There are close to 5 million people who are not connected to the mains gas network. These people need to rely on LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) for heating and cooking, which is more expensive than mains gas. The winter heating allowance paid to pensioners is official recognition that energy poverty exists in the UK.

To What Extent is trade Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries?

International energy markets mean that countries like the UK, USA and Japan can generally rely on secure supply, especially as they are wealthy countries that can afford to buy energy. For example, in 2013, 47% of energy used in the UK was imported, showing the possibility of having high energy security whilst relying heavily on the international market. Moreover, many foreign supply pathways, such as between Canada and the USA are so geopolitically secure that the risk to supply disruption is minimal. Therefore, if energy is imported across very stable and secure supply pathways, by countries which can afford to import their energy, trade can be a viable replacement for domestic energy reserves in ensuring high energy security.

Limitations of gas (1)

It can create major environmental problems when it is flared off as a waste product at oilfields. This occurs when there is no infrastructure present to pipe the gas to customers.

Distribution of natural gas

It is estimated that 45 percent of the world's recoverable gas remains undiscovered. Natural gas reserves are richest in countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iran. Over 100 countries hold reserves of natural gas, and the global total of known reserves is 186 trillion cubic metres. Some 17 percent of the world's original recoverable gas was located North America. However, North America has accounted for more than one-half of the world's gas production, and now contains only 11 percent of the world's remaining gas resources. About 38 percent of the world's remaining gas is in the Former Soviet Union and 25 percent is located in the Middle East. South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia/Oceania are each projected to contain less than 10 percent of the world's remaining natural gas.

Future of gas pathways

It is likely that, as delivery via pipelines becomes less dependable for political reasons, there will be a switch towards shipping gas, tanked as liquefied natural gas (LNG).

What % of nations have already peaked in their oil supplies? Give examples.

It is predicted that two-thirds of oil producing nations have already 'peaked' in their oil supplies, including Norway and the UK.

To What Extent are Domestic fossil fuels Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries? Evaluation

It must be considered that some countries choose not to exploit their domestic energy resources e.g. UK coal, because cheaper sources can be accessed via trade. The technology and capital needed to access resources like oil and gas in countries like Nigeria and Sudan was lacking, which meant that these countries failed to gain the full benefit from their domestic energy resources. This suggests that high levels of energy security can be achieved without exploiting domestic energy resources, and that these resources do not ensure high levels of energy security.

To what extent does oil & conflict have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

Major consumers are concerned with the reliability of their supplies. Some observers have claimed that this was a significant factor in the 2003 Allied invasion and occupation of Iraq, which has the world's second largest oil reserves. Oil was also seen as a driving force in earlier armed conflicts in the Gulf region: the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the First Gulf War that followed. In Africa, major consumers, especially China, have been competing to secure access to African oil with promises of economic aid and military protection. Geopolitical tension arose in Venezuela, when President Chavez threatened to stop selling oil to the USA, as well as supplying China and Cuba with oil. Much of the conflict in the world since the end of the Cold War has been triggered by strategic oil considerations. There is increasing interest in where the largest remaining reserves are located.

Peak Oil: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply).

Many economists have predicted that the world is experiencing "peak oil" - the hypothetical point in time when the global production of oil reaches its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline. It is predicted that two-thirds of oil producing nations have already 'peaked' in their oil supplies, including Norway and the UK. This causes uncertainty over the future global supply of oil, as it becomes no longer possible to sell oil at a cheap price. As we continue into the age of expensive oil and gas, without appropriate efforts to mitigate the impacts and transition to a new energy system, the world faces a future of economic and geopolitical turbulence. Thus, with global supply of cheap oil reserves potentially decreasing, there is uncertainty over the continued supply of oil as a viable source of energy. However, there are various factors militating against the rising price of oil such as unconventional oil reserves (e.g. tar sands) and the discovery of new oil reserves.

How significant is maritime transport for oil?

Maritime transport accounts for 60% of world oil movements.

How will the growing popularity of renewables help it replace non-renewable energy sources in the future?

Moreover, renewable energy is beginning to make significant contributions to energy sources with major investment going into the sector to make contribution towards national grids. Vermont has set a statewide goal of 90 percent renewable energy by 2050 for all sectors including transportation, which would require an estimated $30-50 billion in capital investments. Vermont, as a small state with relatively strong political support, is a test case of what is possible With domestic fossil fuels starting to run out in many countries, many countries need to look for domestic energy is critical to ensure energy security. Countries such as Germany have invested heavily in the renewable energy sector, which has accounted for 73% of Germany energy demand. This suggests that renewable energy can replace fossil fuels when countries shift their focus and investment towards renewable energy.

Key players National companies

National or state energy companies have become increasingly powerful as oil prices have risen and are a big challenge to the influence of the oil 'majors'. National companies such as Russia's Gazprom, Saudi Aramco and Venezuela's PdVSA control about 80% of the world's oil reserves, 50% of the gas reserves and 80% of production. In fact, Gazprom's input makes up 40% of the EU's total gas supply and 32% of its oil supply, making Russia hugely politically powerful. A number of these state energy companies have been formed as part of a process that has become known as resource nationalisation. This has resulted in the wholesale or partial exclusion of the major energy TNCs from a number of important producing areas. Where the major energy TNCs operate in countries with active national energy companies, the former have been under pressure to accept harsher economic terms. Resource nationalisation has resulted in a significant shift of power within the energy industry.

Distribution of fracking

Natural bitumen is mainly found in Alberta, Canada, where the oil sands reserves account for 69% of the estimated global total Oil shale is a massive yet mostly untouched resource, and it is estimated that there are nearly 5 trillion barrels of oil shale worldwide, particularly in the USA, Brazil and Russian However, owing to the comparatively higher costs of mining shale oil over crude oil, these resources have barely been touched.

What is the least polluting of all the fossil fuels?

Natural gas

NIC trends in global energy demand

Newly industrialised countries are increasing their energy demand by the fastest rate. China alone has accounted for one-third of the growth in global oil demand since 2000. China passed Japan as the world's second largest user of oil in 2004. It consumes twice as many barrels of oil as it consumes. Because of this, its oil imports doubled between 1999 and 2004. However, China's oil consumption per person is still only one-fifteenth of that in the USA

Technological development (energy patterns)

Nuclear energy has only been available since 1954. Oil and gas can now be extracted from much deeper waters than in the past. Renewable energy technology is advancing steadily.

How might nuclear help to make a more sustainable energy future?

Nuclear energy represents one alternative radical energy technology in order to create a more sustainable energy future. Nuclear energy is considered as one of the most environmentally friendly source of energy as it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions during the production of electricity compared to traditional sources like coal. Uranium is relatively cheap and easy mine, and most commentators think that reserves are plentiful, which suggests that nuclear power has the potential to contribute towards a more sustainable energy future, providing clean energy at a reasonable price. France obtains 78% of its electricity from nuclear power, showing the possibilities of nuclear energy as a sustainable source. However, nuclear waste has its downfalls. Nuclear power can be dangerous as highlighted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Even more significantly, whilst modern power stations are designed to be safe, they still generate toxic waste in the form of radioactive materials, which have to be transported and stored. This is difficult to manage politically as well as technically. Moreover, nuclear plants are also expensive, costing several billion pounds to design and build, which means that this does not represent a viable option for many countries who cannot afford such complex infrastructure.

Examples of radical new technologies to manage future energy needs

Offshore Wind Turbines Carbon Storage Geothermal Energy Biofuels

Disadvantages of nuclear

Nuclear power can be dangerous as highlighted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Whilst modern power stations are designed to be safe, they still generate toxic waste in the form of radioactive materials, which have to be transported and stored. This is difficult to manage politically as well as technically. An increase in nuclear power stations also increases the potential of uranium getting into the hands of the wrong people, which could be incredibly dangerous. Nuclear plants are also expensive, costing several billion pounds to design and build.

The importance of OPEC in the global supply of energy

OPEC (Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a key player in the global supply of oil and therefore energy. OPEC has been gaining steady power and influencing the global oil market since the 1970s when OPEC had ~50% of market share in global crude oil production. In particular, OPEC sets oil production quotas for member countries in response to economic growth rates and demand and supply conditions. This gives them significant power to control prices of Oil, as they can control the amount of oil is available on the market. Their power is evident in the 1973 Oil Crisis. Following an embargo imposed by OPEC, oil prices rose 400%, highlighting the role that OPEC can play in controlling supply of oil. Thus, whilst OPEC are an important player in supplying oil, the emergence of unconventional resources, such as Tar Sands and Shale Gas has reduced the power that OPEC has on the oil market. But fracking has cut into its market share. OPEC is now producing less than half of the world's supply of oil, and despite best efforts, OPEC were not able to prevent the fall in the price of oil to around $40 per barrel.

Key players case study: OPEC

OPEC is a permanent intergovernmental organisation, consisting of oil producing and exporting countries. It has 12 members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela and Ecuador. OPEC's objective is to 'co-ordinate petroleum policies' amongst its members, to ensure fair and stable prices for producers, an efficient, economic and regular supply to consumer nations, and a fair return on capital for those investing in industry. OPEC was formed in 1960 to protect the interests of oil-producing countries. At that time, the Arab oil fields were controlled by multinational oil companies, who raised and lowered prices as they saw fit. However, OPEC was created, forming what some view as a cartel - an association of producers or suppliers formed to monopolise production and distribution to control prices.

OPECs role in energy supply

OPEC is a powerful player in the global energy supply business. It sets oil production quotas for member countries in response to economic growth rates and demand and supply conditions. If demand suddenly rises, OPEC can increase oil production to prevent a sharp price rise; similarly, oil production can be reduced to maintain the price if demand falls. OPEC's aim of ensuring fair and stable prices for its members means that it aims to get the best possible price without swamping or restricting the market.

Limitations of oil (2)

Oil spills at production sites and along pipeline routes are major hazards, causing damage to vegetation and wildlife. E.g. BP oil spill. New oil fields are often in environmentally sensitive areas, such as the Arctic.

Using named examples, evaluate the contribution radical energy technologies and policies might make to a more sustainable energy future. Conclusion!

On balance, if taken together, all of the examples could lead to a greater sustainable future. As green taxes would move people away from using inefficient sources of energy, and new technologies such nuclear power or CCS would generate electricity for our needs with less carbon emissions. However, these radical policies have limitations which means that they are not completely reliably in guaranteeing a sustainable future. For example, CCS remains untested on a global scale.

To what extent does nuclear have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

On the one hand, Nuclear energy is considered as one of the most environmentally friendly source of energy as it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions during the production of electricity compared to traditional sources like coal. Uranium is relatively cheap and easy mine, and most commentators think that reserves are plentiful, as well as the fact that Nuclear energy provide a stable base load of energy, which can work synergistic with other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, altering the amount of energy released depending on wind and solar levels. France obtains 78% of its electricity from nuclear power, showing the possibilities of nuclear energy as a sustainable source. However, nuclear waste has its downfalls. Nuclear power can be dangerous as highlighted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Even more significantly, whilst modern power stations are designed to be safe, they still generate toxic waste in the form of radioactive materials, which have to be transported and stored. This is difficult to manage politically as well as technically. Moreover, because of the issues surrounding nuclear waste, many people do not want nuclear power plants near their own towns or cities, and thus nuclear energy is a source that suffers from NIMBYISM. Therefore, considering the benefits that can be obtained from other, renewable sources of energy, nuclear energy does have high social and environmental costs associated with its development.

Limitations of ocean power (2)

Only certain locations are suitable for offshore tidal generation. Technology for large-scale generation is unproven.

Economic factors that influence energy supply and distribution

Onshore deposits of oil and gas are usually cheaper to develop than offshore deposits. Potential hydroelectric sites close to major transport routes and existing electricity transmission corridors are more economical to build than those in very inaccessible locations. In poor countries FDI is often essential for the development of energy resources. When energy prices rise, companies increase spending on exploration and development.

Conclusion: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply).

Overall, many developed countries such as the UK and USA have peaked oil supplies - USA in the 1980s and UK in 2006. Therefore, new supplies must be found. Uncertainties such as political tension, as shown by Russia-Ukraine, environmental concerns - the Alberta Tar Sands, as economic costs of extracting these resources all explain why a lack of supply may cause worry. However, with new reserves and innovative extraction methods, these uncertainties simply lead to expectation of further energy supplies.

Limitations of nuclear power (2)

Possible health risks associated with power plants and accidents such as Chernobyl 1986, as nuclear waste is highly radioactive, which can cause cancers. Disposal of radioactive material raises safety issues and there are unknown long-term risks, as it remains radioactive for thousands of years.

Public opinion/Environmental issues

Public opinion on the environment can influence decisions made by governments.

Limitations of biomass power (2)

Relatively low energy densities mean limited potential for large scale electricity generation. Biomass acts as a carbon sink, so combustion releases stored carbon dioxide.

Limitations of coal (2)

Releases large amounts of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, contributing to climate change and atmospheric pollution. US coal power plants alone release nearly 2 billion tons of CO2 each year. Opencast mining can scar the landscape of areas and require costly remedial work.

Russia's abnormally large supply of energy case study

Russia is seen to be one of the most energy secure countries in the world, and this is predominantly due to its large reserves of fossil fuels: Russia has the largest known natural gas reserves, along with the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Russia's energy security is so high that it is able to have an economy centred on exporting energy, whilst still having sufficient reserves to power its own domestic economy.

Deep Water Reserves

Several challenges arise in the deployment, successful operation and maintenance of deep-water production assets. High costs of subsea installations, particularly instrumentation and wiring and precision engineering. More equipment and manpower means more weight on platforms, amplifying risks. Safety depends on proper maintenance e.g. periodic testing, which is costly. Maintaining offshore assets while allowing for optimum profitability and minimal risk can be costly. The high daily production value from a major offshore asset makes the cost of a shutdown or subsea repair mind boggling in terms of operating costs and lost production, and environmental consequences can be significant. Deepwater extraction also presents unique dangers related to higher pressures and extreme temperatures, which lead to the possibility of an uncontrollable oil spill, such as the BP Gulf of Mexico incident, in which an estimated 4.9 million barrels were discharged.

Nature of shale gas

Shale gas refers to natural gas that is trapped within shale formations. Shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that can be rich resources of petroleum and natural gas. Sedimentary rocks are rocks formed by the accumulation of sediments at the Earth's surface and within bodies of water.

Exports of fuel since 1990s

Since the early 1990s there has been a significant increase in the export of fuels (mainly oil and gas), particularly from the middle east, Africa and the former Soviet Union.

Distribution of solar energy

Solar energy is found across the globe. Due to the ITCZ, the tropics is where the most consistent, intense solar energy can be found. Therefore, the countries that have the greatest amounts of solar power include countries in northern and central Africa, southern Asia, and Latin America. Countries that convert solar energy to electricity are often more developed or receive investment from developed countries. The world's largest solar power plant is the Topaz Solar Farm in California consists of nine million solar panels and has a enough power to supply 160,000 homes.

Economic and environmental costs: (Assess the degree of uncertainty over future global sources of energy supply).

Some of the oil remaining in the ground can be accessed only by using complex and costly technologies that present greater environmental challenges than the technologies used for most of the oil produced to date. For example, The viability of harnessing tar sand and shale oil reserves depends on the fluctuating price of oil as well as public opinion towards an environmentally damaging source of oil extraction, as Tar sands are an expensive reserve to extract and cause many secondary environmental problems, releasing 3-4 times more greenhouse gas than conventional oil extraction. Thus, there is uncertainty about future energy supplies because remaining, unconventional supplies of oil such as tar sands are not only expensive but also have very damaging environmental consequences which could make them not viable resources in the future.

Nature of tar sands

Tar sands (also referred to as oil sands) are a combination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen, a heavy black viscous oil. Tar sands can be mined and processed to extract the oil-rich bitumen, which is then refined into oil. The bitumen in tar sands cannot be pumped from the ground in its natural state; instead tar sand deposits are mined, usually using strip mining or open pit techniques, or the oil is extracted by underground heating with additional upgrading.

Benefits of exploiting tar sands

Tar sands provide an alternative source of oil when conventional sources are unavailable for political or access reasons - or existing fields cannot produce more. By 2030, tar sands could meet 16% of North America's demand for oil - providing a secure, sizable source of oil for Canada and the USA. Tar sands will provide an additional source of oil until more renewable sources and cleaner fuels can be developed. Oil is vital to the Canadian economy. In 2007, the oil industry accounted for nearly 20% of the total value of Canadian exports.

Escalating Conflict due to disruption of energy pathways

The 1994 Cuban protests arose from severe disruption to energy pathways from Russia following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which undermined the authority of national governments, thereby decreasing their ability to run the country effectively. In some cases, disruption of energy pathways can generate armed conflict as countries attempt to secure energy resources using force. The disruption of the Russian pipeline in Ukraine served as the catalyst for the 2014 unrest in Ukraine after Russia attempted to secure large oil ports in the Black Sea in the annexation of Crimea.

Energy pathways

The flows of energy from producer to consumer are the pathways. In physical terms, the pathways take the form of gas and oil pipelines, the sea routes of tankers carrying oil and gas, and electricity power lines.

BP Oil Spill Case Study

The Deepwater Horizon rig, was situated in the Macondo oil prospect in the Mississippi Canyon, a valley in the continental shelf. On the night of April 20 a surge of natural gas blasted through a concrete core recently installed by contractor Halliburton in order to seal the well for later use. Once released by the fracture of the core, the natural gas traveled up the Deepwater rig's riser to the platform, where it ignited. An estimated 4.9 million barrels were discharged.

Managing Future Energy Needs through emission controls

The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, proposed emission controls at the international level for the first time, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to prevent human-induced climate change. It came into force in 2005 and by may 2008 it had been ratified by 182 countries. Of these, 36 developed countries are required to achieve specific reductions in their greenhouse emissions, amounting to an average of 5% against 1990 levels over the 5-year period 2008-2012. Other signatories include the rapidly industrialising countries of Brazil, China and india, but they have no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions. The refusal of the world's second largest greenhouse emitter, the USA, to ratify the agreement - along among developed countries - substantially weakened the effect of the protocol. In 2007, 13 countries agreed in principle to a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialised and developing countries that need to increase their energy consumption in order to develop and are currently not very fuel-efficient.

Advantages of wind power

The costs of generating electricity from wind today are only 10% of what they were 20 years ago, due to advances in turbine technology. Therefore, at well-chosen locations, wind power can now compete with conventional sources of energy. Costs of wind energy is set to fall further due to further advances and increasing economies of scale. Wind generation produces about 1% of the global electricity supply. Large-scale wind farms are connected to electricity grids, while individual turbines can provide electricity in isolated locations. Wind energy is plentiful, widely distributed and clean, and it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels as a source of electricity. Fluctuations in wind speeds seldom create problems when wind power is used to supply a low proportion of total demand. Repowering - the replacement of first-generation wind turbines with modern multi-megawatt turbines - is also beginning to play an important, offering further advantages. More wind power from the same area of land Fewer wind turbines Higher efficiency, lower costs Enhanced appearance as modern turbines rotate at a lower speed and are usually more visually appealing. Better grid integration as modern turbines use a connection method similar to conventional power plants.

Disadvantages of wind power

The costs of generating electricity from wind today are only 10% of what they were 20 years ago, due to advances in turbine technology. Therefore, at well-chosen locations, wind power can now compete with conventional sources of energy. Costs of wind energy is set to fall further due to further advances and increasing economies of scale. Wind generation produces about 1% of the global electricity supply. Large-scale wind farms are connected to electricity grids, while individual turbines can provide electricity in isolated locations. Wind energy is plentiful, widely distributed and clean, and it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels as a source of electricity. Fluctuations in wind speeds seldom create problems when wind power is used to supply a low proportion of total demand. Repowering - the replacement of first-generation wind turbines with modern multi-megawatt turbines - is also beginning to play an important, offering further advantages. More wind power from the same area of land Fewer wind turbines Higher efficiency, lower costs Enhanced appearance as modern turbines rotate at a lower speed and are usually more visually appealing. Better grid integration as modern turbines use a connection method similar to conventional power plants.

Nuclear power

The division of a heavy nucleus into two parts to release energy. This energy is converted into heat that raises steam to drive turbines and generate electricity.

Energy projections of 2030

The future demand for energy will depend very much on the rate of economic growth. The global recession in 2008 caused a significant decline in energy demand. However, as economic conditions improve, the demand for energy will rise. The significant increase in the number of NICs in recent decades will be a major factor in future energy demand. By 2030, global oil consumption is expected to reach 114 million barrels of oil a day. By 2030, total global energy consumption is expected to have grown by 50% - with demand from developing countries surging by 85%, compared to a 19% increase in industrialised countries. As the economies of China and India grow, their energy use is predicted to have doubled by 2030. Electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 - fuelled mainly by coal and natural gas. China accounts for 70% of new coal consumption. Nuclear power is expected to increase by 50% - mostly in China and India. The largest increase in demand for oil will come from transport (as people in developing countries purchase more cars). The use of renewable energy is expected in increase up to 2030.

Peak Oil Definition

The hypothetical point in time when the global production of oil reaches its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline.

Oil pathway examples

The middle east exports around 15,000 barrels of oil per day, mainly to Japan, Europe and China. Russia supplies some oil to China, but the bulk of its exports now head in the direction of Europe.

The Trans-Siberian gas pipeline case study

The pipeline was constructed between 1982 and 1984 and created the transcontinental gas system Western Siberia Western Europe. The pipeline is managed by two key energy players Gazprom and UkrTransGaz. There have been some geo-political issues and disagreements associated with this pipeline - one was a disagreement among the allies. The Soviet plans to build the pipeline were strongly opposed by the Ronald Reagan administration. The US prevented US companies from selling supplies to the Soviets in able to build the pipeline. This is was also a part of what was the retribution against the Soviets for their policies towards Poland. This disagreement can be classified as a geopolitical issue. Another geo-political issue that has also occurred was in the construction of the pipeline. It was subject to a United States Congressional hearing. An investigation was held regarding the use of imported Vietnamese labour was used from re-education camps to build the pipeline. This has many impacts, most importantly the reputation of the pipeline in its future success in supplying energy.

Changes in price (energy patterns)

The relative prices of the different types of energy can influence demand. Electricity production in the UK has been switching from coal to gas over the past 20 years mainly because power stations are cheaper to run on natural gas.

Business as usual

The reliance on fossil fuel: The IEA predicts that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix between 2005-2030 (having an 84% share with coal use growing more rapidly).

Examples of a major maritime transport route?

The route through the suez canal is very high density trade superhighway. 8% of all global trade goes between the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal.

Coal pathways example

There are coal pathways from countries as far apart as Australia and Poland.

Where are the world's biggest tar sand reserves?

There are numerous deposits of oil sands in the world, but the biggest and most important are in Canada and Venezuela, with lesser deposits in Kazakhstan and Russia. Currently, oil is not produced from tar sands on a significant commercial level in the United States; in fact, only Canada has a large-scale commercial tar sands industry, though a small amount of oil from tar sands is produced commercially in Venezuela. The Canadian tar sands industry is centered in Alberta, and more than one million barrels of synthetic oil are produced from these resources per day.

Distribution of tidal power

There are very few commercial-sized tidal power plants operating in the world. The first was located in La Rance, France. The largest facility is the Sihwa Lake Tidal Power Station in South Korea. The UK is currently the undisputed global leader in marine energy, with around 10 MW of wave and tidal stream devices being tested in UK waters, more than the rest of the world combined.

How does energy insecurity might lead to international conflict?

To a large extent, energy insecurity can lead to conflicts both within and between countries. Issues over energy security have threatened conflict on an international scale. Conflict has arisen over hotspots of energy, where ownership is disputed. The Arctic provides an example of an energy hotspot which threatens to generate international conflict. Its oil and natural gas resources make it particularly attractive to countries who wish to obtain relatively cheap energy. It is estimated that the Arctic houses 22% of undiscovered oil reserves. In the past, the region has often been regarded as a powerful example of international cooperation with the respective countries mostly conforming to international treaties, convening regularly at regional forums such as the Arctic Council and resolving differences diplomatically. However, in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, it is possible this could change and outstanding boundary issues could create further geopolitical friction among Russia and the other Arctic countries, whilst Russia has already tried to make claims on the Lomonosov ridge, a claim which Denmark and Canada do not view as legitimate. Russia may feel the need to encroach further north in order to maintain current oil production volumes, as first attempted to do in 2001. Such an attempt would certainly spark conflict whether it be political tension or even the threat of military intervention. Coupled with this, the steadily warming climate is making the Arctic increasingly accessible for potential resource development, therefore exacerbating tensions between countries who wish to exploit its resources.

Using named examples, assess the extent to which energy insecurity might lead to conflicts both within and between countries. Conclusion!

To conclude, it appears that past evidence points to the fact that energy insecurity will always be a cause of conflict, and increasing insecurity is only going to exacerbate the problem. Having said this, there is potential and some evidence of cooperation among and within countries over this strategically important matter of energy insecurity.

Using named examples, assess the extent to which fossil fuels could be replaced by renewable energy sources in the future. Conclusion!

Ultimately, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy will not occur overnight, and it will not escape recurring setbacks. Nevertheless, renewables are likely to replace fossil fuels as the dominant source of electrical power well before mid-century as well as make giant strides in other areas such as transportation. Yes, the titans of carbon will continue to rule for another decade or so but their days are numbered and the smart money will place increasing bets on the eventual triumph of renewables.

To what extent do all renewable and recyclable energy resources have environmental and social costs associated with their development? Conclusion!

Ultimately, there are social and environmental costs associated with all renewable and recyclable energy source. However, the extent of these costs differ. In general, recyclable resources, such as nuclear energy, tend to have larger impacts on people and the environment, while the negatives of renewable are relatively minor in relation to their environmental benefits. When taking into account the environmental benefits of renewable energy compared with the current environmental costs of fossil fuels, it can be seen that the benefits of renewable benefits of renewable energy far outweigh its smaller social and environmental costs.

Distribution of oil

Venezuela have the largest oil reserves of any one country, with around 300 billion barrels compared to Saudi Arabia's 265 billion barrels The Middle East is where more than half of the world's proven oil reserves are located. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq having the greatest numbers of proven reserves within the Middle East respectively. Global oil reserves are almost 60% larger today than 20 years ago, and production of oil has gone up by 25%.

Managing Future Energy Needs through carbon storage

Whatever the future global energy mix proves to be, coal is unlikely to go away. On a world scale, it is cheap, abundant and can often be locally sourced, which makes it an attractive commodity. China has accounted for over 60% of the global growth in coal consumption since 1997. Carbon capture and storage involves 'capturing' the carbon dioxide released by burning coal and burying it deep underground. This technology potentially allows clean electricity to be produced by coal. However, there are problems. No one really knows whether CCS will work and whether the carbon dioxide will stay underground. A handful of CCS projects have been conducted, but only one such project, in Spremberg, Germany, is linked to electricity generation.

To what extent does HEP have environmental and social costs associated with their development?

Whilst HEP is a renewable energy source which offers a reliable means of producing energy, it has numerous environmental and social costs. Firstly, the implementation of HEP dams can have severe implications on plantation and wildlife. Diverting the natural course of rivers and removing the forest land to construct the dam can disrupt the lives of animals permanently change the physical landscape. Furthermore, a significant amount of resources are used to construct HEP dams, which are often large in scale, such as the three gorges dam. This can have a significant environmental footprint. HEP energy sources also have significant social costs. Dam construction can lead to the displacement of people from their homes, if they are situated in the path of the new river flow. Also, local people do not directly benefit from the construction of the dam, as they are rarely employed in the dam's construction nor do they receive electricity supply from the dam. Therefore HEP's disadvantages does suggest that there are substantial environmental and social costs associated with renewable energy resources.

To What Extent is demand Important in Determining the Energy Security of Countries?

Whilst it is important to develop energy resources domestically to ensure the provision of a reliable and affordable energy supply, it is increasingly difficult to do this in a context of increasing energy consumption. For example, the increasing energy consumption of the BRICs has increased the risk of rising insecurity unless they can secure foreign supplies (China in Africa) or develop their own domestic supply. Furthermore, reducing energy demand can be as effective as increasing energy supply. Decreasing the demand for energy intensive processes and industries by encouraging the re-use and re-cycling of products and by reducing waste can significantly reduce the need to develop supplies at home or abroad.

The Global energy challenge

With the world's primary energy needs set to grow by 55% by 2030, and electricity consumption set to double in the next few decades, managing future need is a global challenge, perhaps one of the most significant of our time. The IEA estimates that $22 trillion of new investment will be needed by 2030. At the same time, there is a global challenge of climate change and the need to develop cleaner sources of energy in order to improve, or at least not worsen, the health of our environment. There are two possible ways of achieving this: By applying various 'carrot and stick' measures such as emissions controls, carbon trading and green taxation to encourage a reduction in energy consumption and increase in energy efficiency. By developing new and radical technologies that are sustainable and bring energy security.

Distribution of biomass energy

Worldwide, land-based vegetation stores an estimated 500 billion tonnes of carbon. 86% of the world's biomass is found in the southern hemisphere, mainly just below the equator. There are large reserves in Southern Central Africa, Northern South America and Australasia. The majority of farmed biomass is located in northern parts of South America.