politics finals
How do Republican governors in blue states appeal to minorities?
"Republican governors are America's reformers in chief. They continue to deliver on conservative promises of reducing the size of government while making people's lives better. They routinely win a much larger share of the minority vote than GOP presidential candidates, demonstrating an appeal that goes beyond the base of the Party."
Strategies for Influence
1.Lobbying: organized interests seek to influence the passage of legislation of other public policy by exerting direct pressure on members of the legislature Lobbyists provide information to lawmakers about their interests on the legislation at hand Sometimes they will testify on behalf of clients at committees They will also talk to reporters, use ads, letter/email writing Interest groups do not buy votes but they can buy time, expertise, influence Studies show that interest groups providing the most money to representatives are more likely to be consulted by that representative Lobbying is often based on personal relationships and behind the scenes services they perform for lawmakers 2. The Iron Triangle Interest groups work closely with government agencies and congressional committees for mutual benefit Interest groups support members of congress who support larger budgets for related agencies 3. Using the Courts (Litigation): interest groups uses the courts in at least three ways Bringing suit directly on behalf of the group itself Financing suits brought by individuals Filing a companion brief as an amicus curiae ("friend of the court") 4. Mobilizing Public Opinion (bringing attention to the issue) Going public! Used by citizen groups and netroots groups Institutional Advertising: advertising designed to create a positive image of an organization (ads showing what oil companies are doing for the country) Protests/Demonstrations: Go public because they lack resources/contacts or lobbying. Think: Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter Grassroots Mobilization: mobilize members to contact government officials 4. Mobilizing Public Opinion (bringing attention to the issue) Going public! Used by citizen groups and netroots groups Institutional Advertising: advertising designed to create a positive image of an organization (ads showing what oil companies are doing for the country) Protests/Demonstrations: Go public because they lack resources/contacts or lobbying. Think: Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter Grassroots Mobilization: mobilize members to contact government officials 5. Electoral Politics: try to elect sympathetic legislators Help get members of Congress elected so that they will owe them a debt of gratitude Use PACS to give financial support! Electoral politics can also include the use of ballot initiatives at the state level
Clinton didn't hold together Obama's coalition
2016 had a 7-percentage-point decline in turn out from the previous presidential election for black Americans The number of black voters declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012 With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012 As John White notes, parties are elastic organizations, and their ability to bounce back after major defeats often surprises both pundits and academics alike Following Lyndon B Johnson's defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964, Nelson Polsby went as far as to declare the two party system over Instead, he argued America had a "one and a half party system," with Republicans acting as the "half party" Likewise, columnists all across the country were writing political obituaries with titles such as "The Party that Lost its Head" Yet, a mere four years after Goldwater's landslide loss, Richard Nixon was walking triumphantly into the White House
Unrepresented interests
: hard to count, because they're not organized. But some groups have a hard time organizing and presenting their interests to the government. David Truman calls these groups "potential interest groups" Critics of pluralism: pressure politics is heavily skewed in favor of upper class groups, leaving those with lower socioeconomic status with less influence in politics Those with a higher income and education or professional occupation are more likely to become members of interest groups
Interest Groups
A group of individuals who organize to influence the government's programs and policies. Includes: membership organizations of average citizens, but also businesses, corporations, union groups, etc. Form groups in order to increase the chance that their views will be heard and their interests treated favorably by the government. (Not to be confused with Political Action Committees which are private groups seeking to influence election outcomes)
Single Women
Also considered a voting group on the rise In 1980, 2/3rds of voters were "married with children under seventeen living at home" In 2012, this number dropped to 1/4th While Mitt Romney did well with women who were "married with kids," Obama did very well with single women From 2010 through 2015, about half of women (51%-52%) identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party But the share of women who identify with or lean to the Democratic Party has risen in recent years, to 54% in 2016 and 56% in 2017 The partisan breakdown of men is relatively unchanged over this period
Offices
An agency that carries out the group's tasks Can include: research organization, public relations offices, or a lobbying office in DC or state capitals
AARP & Benefits
An example of recruiting members and mobilizing for political action Founded in 1958 as a result of the efforts of a retired California principal 38 Million members, 900$ million annual income. How? Provides: health insurance, advocacy for members, guidance against fraud, low interest credit cards, evaluated and endorsed products, auto insurance, mail order pharmacy
Material Benefits
Anything that can be measured monetarily, such as special goods and services provided to members to incite them to join. Discount purchasing, health insurance, travel packages
Interest Groups in Political Science Literature
Charles Beard: An Economic Theory of Democracy (1913) We look at the founders as divinely inspired But really economic interests motivated the framers They were concerned with the shipping industry and Western expansion Congress is created so that the men attending the Constitutional Convention could protect their own interests
Citizen Groups (Public Interest Groups)
Citizen Groups (Public Interest Groups): claim to represent the general good rather than its own economic interests Usually the most vocal on issues like consumer protection or the environment (Think: The Sierra Club) Represent about 20% of lobbying groups in Washington DC
2016: demography is destiny, until it isn't!
Concept of change / can bring change: 82% of people who wanted change supported Trump. Nearly 4/10 voters say they are looking for change Obama's job approval on election day was 53%. This is usually a good indicator of who will win the election when Reagan was above 50%, it helped G.H.W. Bush significantly. But Trump still wins! Debates - polls said that Hillary Clinton won the debates A desire to start something new existed after 8 year
Reagan Coalition
Democratic solutions aren't working! Feeling of "malaise" Midwest, South, evangelicals and Catholics, small towns, blue collar (even in the North), Reagan democrats (26% of democrats vote for Reagan), western libertarians Reagan: Winning approx. 40% of the Hispanic vote Also: He wins 60% of "young voters" (18-24) and 57% of voters 25-29 In the 1980s, the Hispanic vote represented less than 1% of the electorate, but these numbers have increased dramatically in recent years In 2010, the Hispanic vote made up 10% of the total electorate In 2016, it rises to 12%! The start of this change is often attributed to Lyndon B. Johnson's reform of the country's immigration law Prior to the Johnson administration, America operated under a quota system with caps on the amount of particular groups that could enter the country President Kennedy wanted to reform these laws, but was assassinated before he could achieve his goal His successor got the job done instead Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 all had a solid Hispanic support George W Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote This number dropped dramatically in the 2012 election, where Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Hispanic turnout
Economic
Economic: groups with a direct economic interest in the government policy Businesses and corporations make up 31% of lobbying offices in Washington, DC. Examples: Microsoft, Apple, General Motors Trade associations make up 23% and are generally supported by groups of producers / manufacturers in a particular economic sector Example: American Farm Bureau Federation
Types of Interest Groups
Economic: groups with a direct economic interest in the government policy Businesses and corporations make up 31% of lobbying offices in Washington, DC. Examples: Microsoft, Apple, General Motors Trade associations make up 23% and are generally supported by groups of producers / manufacturers in a particular economic sector Example: American Farm Bureau Federation
RNC MEMO in 2012 by chair Reince Priebus
Encouraging Republicans to listen not just to Republican minorities, but to reach out to black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters in their own communities "By the year 2050 we'll be a majority-minority country and in both 2008 and 2012 President Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority groups. The RNC cannot and will not write off any demographic or community or region of this country." Committed $10 million to minority outreach "The Republican party believes that it's crucial to involve Latinos at every level," Priebus told reporters, adding that the GOP is "absolutely dedicated to engaging the Latino community at a time when the Hispanic unemployment rate is at 11 percent According to Priebus the RNC strategy will be a "two-phase program" aimed at connecting with Hispanic voters on both a national level and in crucial battleground states like Florida. As part of that strategy, the RNC today unveiled RNC Latino Twitter and Tumblr accounts, which aim to provide bilingual content to Hispanics nationwide.
Media Terms & Rules
Equal time rule: the requirement that broadcasters provide candidates for the same political office equal opportunities to communicate the messages to the public Right of rebuttal: regulation giving individuals the right to have the opportunity to respond to personal attacks made on the radio or TV Fairness Doctrine: requirement for broadcasters who air programs on controversial issues to provide time for opposing views - the FCC ceased enforcing this doctrine in 1985
Members
Groups have to persuade individuals to contribute their time, money, energy, effort. Members are more important in some groups than in others. In membership associations, members play a large role and serve on committees and projects. In labor unions, for example, members are called on to march on picket lines, same with ideological groups protesting. In staff organizations, professionals complete most group activities and members are only called upon for donations (NOW, Children's Defense Fund).
Money
Groups need a financial structure that is capable of funding group activities Most interest groups rely upon membership dues and voluntary contributions from supporters Groups also sell membership benefits including insurance or vacation tours
Interest Group Organization
Groups share key components including Leadership Money Offices Members
FDR
Hosted nearly 1,000 press conferences, often twice a week, during his 12 years in office But in the 1936 election, Roosevelt claimed that 85 percent of the newspapers were against him!
Why join a group then??
Interest groups offer incentives to try and overcome the free rider problem They include: Informational benefits Material benefits Solidary benefits Purposive benefits
New tools of political warfare
Investigative press Congressional hearings Special prosecutors When post electoral politics is more combative bipartisan cooperation is less likely Government becomes less productive and less effective Less democratic because it is dependent more upon political elites For professionals only - transforms citizens into spectators Encourages disdain for and withdrawal from politics
Labor Groups
Labor Groups: Labor organizations; further the interests of public employees Example: United Mine Workers Only 2% of the total number of registered lobby groups in Washington (still higher than in other democracies) However, union members vote! So organized labor can have a significant impact on an election which means members may be willing to listen
pluralism
Madisonian theory says a good government encourages multiple interests so that no single interests can ever dominate the others! The assumption being that competing interests will regulate one another, ultimately producing a balance This principle is known as pluralism Pluralism: helps the majority of society be represented in government, and competition will lead to moderation and compromise Pluralism also assumes that all groups have equal access to the political process and that achieving a favorable outcome will depend only on a group's strength and resources But critics point out that not all interests are equally represented in the competition for influence
The Free Rider Problem*
Mancur Olson: the benefits of a group's success are often broadly available and cannot be denied to non members (I can still benefit from the group's actions without joining, so why would I join??) These broadly available benefits are known as collective goods Someone who is inactive but still gets benefits is known as a free rider
Demographic shifts electoral politics
Many scholars suggested that President Obama transformed the political landscape with both his 2008 and 2012 campaigns He was, for example, the first president since 1956 to win 51% + of the popular vote in two straight election cycles Obama won a significant majority of the minority vote Strengthened a "blue wall" in the electoral college
Money and Office (Ansolabehere & Snyder)
Members of Congress rely heavily on money to win reelection Incumbents have fundraising advantages Interest group money is the main source of this advantage Interest groups will invest in those who are already in office They give to legislators sitting on key committees, especially those committees related to the economy and taxation They are also more likely to give to the majority, and those in leadership They want to influence those who are going to directly impact the legislation that comes before Congress Resources are directed towards those already in power
Public Speaker
Members of Congress saw the president successfully "going public" and believed they could utilize the same strategy Additionally, the importance of media politics to success was impressed upon Speaker O'Neill by President Reagan's successful use of media
Examples of 3
NAACP: Brown v. Board of Ed Right to Life Groups: Webster v. Reproductive Health Services (state restrictions on abortion) LGBT Groups: Obergefell v Hodges
White House Correspondents Dinner
On May 7, 1921, 50 men congregated at the Arlington Hotel in Washington for the first White House Correspondents' Dinner. Not in attendance: the new president, Warren G. Harding, a former newspaper publisher. But some of his top aides were, including the guest of honor that night, George B. Christian, Harding's secretary and close friend! In 1924, the dinner landed its first sitting president, Calvin Coolidge. Every president has since appeared at least once (not Trump so far!)
Sean Theriault The Gingrich Senators: The Roots of Partisan Warfare in Congress (2013)
Political warfare starts around the time Newt Gingrich is elected Speaker of the House Witnessing the success of such obstructionism, House members who were subsequently elected to the Senate brought the associated tactics along with them Purposely slow down the legislative process Humiliating opponents, at times even questioning their patriotism and integrity Operating with a strong pack mentality Playing "gotcha" in committee instead of debating legislation alternatives "Make the normal legislative process much messier and more complicated — sometimes simply for the purpose of being messy and complicated In "After the 'Housequake: Leadership and Partisanship in the Post-2006 House," Congressman David. E Price (2008) explores how increased partisanship has impacted congressional behavior Price writes after winning the majority in 2006, Democrats never entertained the thought of returning to the Pre-Gingrich model For many members today, the main intent seems to be merely to throw the House into disarray. In other words, scoring political points often outweighs the deliberative, legislative process
The 19th Century
Presidents primarily engaged in official and ceremonial rhetoric Most presidential communication came from executive orders and proclamations - both written for the elite government audience rather than the general public or the media Inaugural addresses were one of the few public speeches given by a president When the president spoke about policy, he mostly did so by talking directly to Congress - not to the public or the media! Many political elite of the nineteenth centuries believed that popular appeals from the president to the people and press could result in demagoguery in the presidency and an unconstitutional expansion of presidential powers Presidents were discouraged from using the media or public appeals (and sometimes when they tried Congress would push back!) Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson are recognized as the presidents who began utilizing media in the modern sense
Woodrow Wilson
Press conferences went from invitation-only gatherings to events open to all reporters The first press conference happened a little more than a week after his inauguration, when his private secretary Joseph Tumulty told reporters that the President would "look them in the face and chat with them for a few minutes" When 125 newspaper staffers showed up, Wilson said, "I did not realize there were so many of you. Your numbers force me to make a speech to you en masse instead of chatting with each of you, as I had hoped to do, and thus getting greater pleasure and personal acquaintance out of this meeting." The conference was moved to the following week, on March 22, and into the East Room Wilson also realized that truly important speeches should be delivered orally, where both the public and press could see! The visual and audio aspects of a performance would become as important as the prepared text Wilson also established two forms of speeches that are common today: the "visionary" speech: articulate a picture of the future and impel a populace toward it the "policy-stand" speech: where the president stands on specific issues or what he will do regarding issues of the day Not every president had easy or comfortable press relations though! Harding: would answer only questions submitted in writing Coolidge: most questions were answered through his staff, not by him Hoover: ruled that all questions had to be submitted 24 hours in advance
Some background....
Prior to the New Deal Coalition, the Republican Party was winning the minority vote The New Deal Coalition added many minorities to the Democratic Party In 1964 and 1965, the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act likewise helped attract many minorities to the Democratic Party
Priming
Process of preparing the public to take a particular view of an event or political actor
Professional associations
Professional associations: lobbies such as the American Bar Association and the American Medical Association Also includes financial institutions like the American Bankers Association Makes up about 13% of the lobbying groups in Washington DC
JFK
Remember: JFK was known for his humor and ability to laugh at himself, even when the press was critical of him! He held 64 press conferences during his presidency! The first live, nationally televised presidential news conference occurred on Jan. 25, 1961 No other president had conducted live televised press conferences without delay or editing The first president to effectively use the new medium of television to speak directly to the American people Sixty-five million people watched his first press conference! A poll taken in 1961 found 90 percent of respondents had seen one of his first three press conferences Some of his advisors worried about the risk of mistakes by the president and others thought the press showed insufficient respect for the dignity of his office The JFK show
Netroots
Revolutionizing political advocacy Left: Moveon.Org Right: Freedomworks, Americans For Prosperity Inexpensive and quicker to adapt to changing politics Fewer staff, virtual offices Uses email, twitter, etc. rather than mail or direct lobbying Can use online media to organize protests or fundraising
Reagan
Ronald Reagan took the template that Nixon tried to use to deal with the media and used it in a much more masterful way Nixon was awkward and did not appear well on camera, whereas Reagan was brilliant on camera! Reagan's White House communications office grew even larger than Nixon's and was successful at courting the media to their events
Teddy Roosevelt
Roosevelt's presidency involved a variety of social and economic initiatives that he reached out to the public and media to support Example: 1906 Hepburn Act, which sought to empower the ICC to regulate railroads - Roosevelt went on a tour around the country to build support for it (the media covered) Roosevelt created a new order of statesmanship where he used popular rhetoric from the presidency to advance a political agenda He treated his "newspaper cabinet" to regular direct conversation, typically during his early afternoon shave Journalists got their own office in the West Wing for the first time He kept tabs on photographers at his statements (the better to make the front pages), hired the first government press officers, and staged publicity stunts He "used favorite correspondents for 'trial balloon' stories," with the expectation that he would deny the truth of the story if the reaction was a bad one Even when he did, journalists "readily forgave him" because he granted them so much access!
Federalist 10
Take in a greater variety of parties and interests and you make it less probable that a majority of the whole will have a common motive to invade the rights of other citizens According to Madison, this was part of why our large republic would have an advantage over a smaller republic
The New Deal Coalition continued....
Significant Democratic dominance helped by shifts in demographics Who are the voters? In 1840 we see a large Irish migration And from 1890 to 1924 there is mass migration from eastern, central, and southern Europe. More Catholics! In 1928, Al Smith, the first Catholic presidential candidate, draws many Catholic immigrants to the polls for the first time! By 1932 immigrants return to the polls and the Great Depression is in full effect FDR creates the New Deal Coalition with: urban voters, Catholics, Jewish Americans, Labor, Unions, and minority voters Republicans are left with farmers, rural voters Roosevelt wins 44 states and then 46 states upon reelection The coalition wins 5 straight presidential elections! Republicans only win once with Eisenhower, who was a popular general But by 1968 the New Deal Coalition begins to fall apart The old arguments are no longer working or relevant We don't need government as involved in the economy By 1970 the country is shifting to largely suburban and issues shift away from purely economic Makes way for the Reagan Coalition!
Leadership
Simple for some groups, more complex for others Can sometimes involve hundreds of local chapters that create one large national apparatus Includes paid, professional staff Today we also have "netroots" online structure that requires less streamlined staff and formal structure
Obama
The "first social-media president" During that time, the social-digital efforts went from a two-person tacked-on-the-side afterthought to a full-fledged content machine This administration was the first presidency to activate on Twitter (growing to over 100 staff accounts), and to use Facebook live, Snapchat and Instagram White House officials said the focus on social media is simply a strategy of going to where people get their news It's an add-on, not a replacement for press conferences and interviews with journalists Obama officials: presidents, with very rare exceptions, can no longer rely on a single method for communicating their message The Pew Research Center recently found that about 4 in 10 Americans regularly get their news online Digital is second only to TV news as the most prominent news platform Younger adults are especially likely to turn to the web for their news "The biggest lesson that we've learned is that the bully pulpit is dead," White House Communications Director Jen Psaki said. "So we have a responsibility as a government and as his staff to come up with a range of ways and levers to communicate information." Matthew Hindman, an associate professor at George Washington University, said presidents are increasingly closed off from the press, and Obama is no exception. Social media allows the administration not to be "hostage" to what the press is focused on during a particular day, he said. "What this is about is getting their message out to their supporters, energizing the base, getting support for their policies, and to some extent shaping the agenda by forcing coverage of issues they think are important," Hindman said.
Millennials
The Obama coalition dominated this demographic of voters age 18-29, winning between 60-67% of their vote over two elections Millennial voters (born 1981 to 1996) have had a Democratic tilt since they first entered adulthood; this advantage has only grown as they have aged Democrats enjoy a 27-percentage-point advantage among Millennial voters (59% are Democrats or lean Democratic, 32% are Republican or lean Republican) In 2014, 53% of Millennial voters were Democrats or leaned Democratic, 37% tilted toward the GOP
Limits
The development of mass media has heightened the stakes of the rhetorical presidency Presidential speeches made to the public are increasingly becoming "the issues and events of modern politics rather than the medium through which issues and events are discussed and assessed."
How is the American electorate changing?
The electorate is more racially and ethnically diverse than in the past Voters are better educated than they were two decades ago (by "better educated" = more with college degrees) Overall, while non-Hispanic whites remain the largest share of registered voters (69%), their share is down from 83% in 1997 Black Americans make up 11%-12% of voters Generally speaking, the non white element of the electorate is steadily increasing Mitt Romney received 60% of the white vote, the same percentage that secured Ronald Reagan's victory. But Romney lost! Similarly, if the 1992 electorate had played out in the 2008 election, John McCain would have won The white electorate is dropping approximately 2% every four years This transforms the political landscape and electoral politics in a fundamental way Hispanics constitute a much larger share of registered voters today (about 12%). In the late 1990s (4% in 1997) and 1% in the 1980s Asian Americans, who made up a tiny share of voters 20 years ago, now constitute 2% of voters And voters who describe their race as "other" also make up a larger share of the electorate than in the past (5% today) Americans under 5 are already majority non white Expected to be a majority non white electorate by 2050
Newt Gingrich
The epitome of the public Speakership is illustrated by the tenure of Speaker Newt Gingrich Speaker Gingrich focused the Republican agenda in the 104th Congress on the well publicized "Contract with America." In April 1995, Speaker Gingrich delivered a nationally televised address to the American people on the agenda. Additionally, in June 1995 Gingrich shared a stage in New Hampshire with President Bill Clinton, where the two debated a variety of national issues. Speakers today use Sunday morning talk shows to help get out their party message. Earlier Speakers like Rayburn regularly denied invitations to such shows! But eventually they grew to see the use behind such appearances. One of Speaker Foley's aides mentioned that the reason they agreed was because it was an effective way to combat the president's messages All Speakers since Rayburn have had daily meetings with the press, but the purpose of these meetings has changed considerably They evolved into carefully planned quests for time on the evening news and space in the national papers. The Speaker's press conference became a place where reporters could really find out what House members were up to!
Trump wins in: WI, MICHIGAN, PA, MINNESOTA
The last time Republicans won in Wisconsin? 1984 The last time they won Michigan? 1988 The last time in Pennsylvania? 1988 And the last time Minnesota went red? 1972 Trump OVERPERFORMED in these states How? energized blue collar / working-class voters in small towns across those states, a Republican wave swept across and crumbled the "blue wall." Trump's message on trade channeled a dissatisfaction with the de-industrialization that has changed the economy in the Rust Belt, and results show that it resonated!
Radio
The main advantage of radio was that the networks knew they had to carry his frequent fireside chats and other speeches in full, usually with minimal commentary Roosevelt praised the new form of media for restoring "direct contact between the masses and their chosen leaders" As the media historian Betty Houchin Winfield notes, radio allowed the president to be "the news gatherer, the reporter, as well as the editor," all at the same time.
Informational Benefits
The most widespread category Information is provided to members through conferences, training programs, online communication, newsletters, publications, legal help, professional contacts
Framing
The power of the media to influence how events and issues are interpreted
Congress and the Media
The president has long had instant access to the press, but that has not always been the case for Congress! Today, however, Members of Congress increasingly have opportunities to counter messages from the White House. This is especially true during divided government. Think: Gingrich during the Clinton years, Pelosi during the Bush years, Boehner during the Obama years. And the Speaker of the House, in particular, has become a more public position. today's network correspondents on Capitol Hill are eager to get as much on air time as their White House counterparts; the way they do so is often by portraying opposition to the administration from members of Congress There's also been a notable change in the way media is viewed by members of Congress In the past, "any member who pursued publicity was regarded as running for statewide office or pursuing some other grand design." Speaker Rayburn, for example, called members who sought publicity "show horses" and said that he preferred "work horses" those who showed up committee, voted, etc. Rayburn actually believed that the media would undermine the "power of committee chairs" and highlight "policy issues that would further divide members BUT ~ new members arriving after Watergate and Vietnam began to understand that visibility could mean credibility! In the modern congress, even a dedicated "work horse" must be prepared to define that work in the media There are so many messages already out there about them - from potential opponents or the president of a different party - that they are almost forced into taking media up opportunities
Political socialization
The process by which your underlying political beliefs and values are formed Agents of socialization can include: family, friends, social groups, race, education, environment (rural v urban), religion, and the media. Initial political orientation usually comes from family Social media may increase the likelihood that younger Americans today are influenced by the beliefs of their peers online!
Purposive Benefits
The purpose and accomplishment of the group's activities Advocacy, participation in public affairs
Solidary Benefits
The satisfaction of working toward a common goal with like minded individuals Friendships and networking! Groups based on gender, ethnicity, race, religion: people often report benefits from interacting with individuals who share their background, values, perspectives
Selection Bias
The tendency to focus news coverage on only one aspect of an event or issue, avoiding coverage of other aspects
The "Blue Wall"
The theory that in Presidential elections in the United States, the Democratic Party, between the 1992 and 2012 presidential elections, established such an advantage in many, states that the electoral map made a Republican victory an uphill battle from the start California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, Washington, D.C.
Politics by Other Means, Ginsberg and Shefter (1990)
These authors argue that elections no longer serve the function of settling political disputes, because they are no longer the forces that exercise influence over the national government Instead our institutions of democracy are seized by two opposing parties who are settled in trench warfare The traditional methods of gaining and wielding power in a representative government - swaying public opinion, mobilizing voters, winning elections - matter less than new weapons and tactics of political warfare When professional political operatives with little or no popular support "can end the career of politicians" such as presidents or mayors who enjoy broad support, voters are given little reason to participate
Religion
Those who attend church "weekly or more" went to Romney Those who attended a "few times a year or never" voted for Obama This element of "fewer or never" is rising The location of religion is changing Americans are still religious and spiritual, but less are spending time weekly in church Religiously unaffiliated voters, who made up just 8% of the electorate two decades ago, now constitute about a quarter (24%) of all registered voters Over this period, there have been declines in the shares of white mainline Protestants, white evangelical Protestants and white Catholics Religiously unaffiliated voters now account for a third of Democratic voters, up from just 9% in 1997. In fact, they make up a larger proportion of Democrats than do white Protestants (33% vs. 18%). In 1997, 40% of Democratic voters identified as white Protestants (evangelical or mainline), while just 9% were religiously unaffiliated. And white Catholics, who made up about one-in-five Democrats then (22%), account for only 10% of Democrats now. While religiously unaffiliated voters constitute a much smaller segment of Republican than Democratic voters, the share of Republicans who do not identify with a religious denomination has risen. Currently, 13% of Republicans do not identify with a religion, up from 5% two decades ago. White Catholic voters now are more Republican (54%) than Democratic (40%). While the partisan balance among white Catholic voters is little changed in recent years, this group was more evenly divided in their partisan loyalties about a decade ago.
Trump
Uses social media as a way to directly communicate with base and the American public - fastest way to "go public" Has suggested stricter libel laws for unfair coverage of public figures
Now scholars are asking...
Was the Obama candidacy was an outlier case? His coalitions in Florida and Ohio (minorities, single women, young voters) Or does it reflect a permanent change in American demographics that will extend beyond his presidency? Why didn't Clinton hold together this same coalition? How did Trump break the blue wall? Will Trump's coalition be able to overcome the changing American electorate in 2020?
Interest Groups have increased in recent decades
Why? Expansion of the role of government New dynamic of political forces that rely heavily on political interest groups to advance their causes (New Politics Movement) 1. Interest groups will form as the result of, or in response to, government actions During the 1970s government expanded its role in the regulation of automobiles, gas, oil, education, and health care. In response, interest groups in each of these areas are created to influence government action Government involvement Interest Group Created Influence Government 2. The New Politics movement Upper middle class professionals and intellectuals - their political experiences were formed by the civil rights movement and by Vietnam These young men and women grew up viewing themselves as a political force, focusing their attention on other issues like the environment, women's rights, etc. Led to creation of many new groups
Ideological groups
support a particular political or philosophical perspective Examples: Moveon.org, EMILY'S LIST, National Right to Life, Christian Coalition
