smart book questions exam 1
Which measurement of error is calculated by dividing the sum of the absolute forecast errors by the number of periods?
MAD
Which measurement of error measures the dispersion of some observed value from some expected value?
MAD
Which measurement of error represent the average error measured as a percentage of average demand
MAPE
The _____ is the focal point of all decisions and actions of the service organization
customer
the term that refers to the physical presence of the customer in the system is known as
customer contact
The higher the variable cost, the ____ the break-even volume
higher
When choosing weights for a weighted moving average, the general rule states that the most recent periods should get the _____ weighting.
highest
Which of the following should be considered when choosing a forecasting model?
- Consequence of a bad forecast - Firm's degree of flexibility
Which of the following should be considered when choosing a forecasting model? Check all that apply.
- Consequence of a bad forecast - The number of users of a forecast does not impact the model selected - Firm's degree of flexibility
With exponential smoothing, the value for the constant is determined both by what?
- Manager's sense of what constitutes a good response rate - The nature of the product
One standard deviation is approximately how many MADs?
1.25
There are _____ dimensions depicted on a product-process matrix
2
In the exponential smoothing method, how many pieces of information are needed to forecast the future?
3
If a car has four engine choices, three transmission choices, and five entertainment choices, there are ____ total number of combinations
60
In the formula for exponential smoothing, α(At-1-Ft-1) represents
A portion of the error
Workcenter
A process structure suited for low-volume production of a great variety of nonstandard products
What is the relationship between response to customer demand and inventory investment?
A quicker response comes at the expense of greater inventory investment
Assembly line
A setup in which an item is produced through a fixed sequence of workstations, designed to achieve a specific production rate
Project layout
A setup in which the product remains at one location, and equipment is moved to the product
The main disadvantage of the moving average is that
All individual data elements must be calculated as data
Which measure of error calculates the average absolute value of the actual forecast error?
MAD
Manufacturing cell
Dedicated area where a group of similar products are produced
(select all that apply): The role of operations in the service triangle is a major one, Which of the following are part of the operations responsibility? Equipment, the price for the service, facilities, service systems, managing the workforce, procedures
Equipment, facilities, service systems, managing the workforce, procedures
With weighted moving averages, how are the weights selected
Experience & trial and error
________ ________ is the most used of all forecasting techniques
Exponential Smoothing
Operationally, which of the following distinguishes one system from another?
Extent of customer contact
Place the following production methods in order starting with the one having the highest level of inventory investment and moving down to the one with the lowest inventory investment
Make to stock Assemble to order Make to order Engineer to order
Place the following production methods in order starting with the one having inventory closest to the customer and then moving back to the one with inventory closest to the source
Make-to-stock Assemble to order Make to order Engineer to order
Which type of firm invests in lean manufacturing programs in order to improve customer service levels for a given inventory investment
Make-to-stock (Reason: Many make to stock firms invest in lean manufacturing programs in order to achieve higher service levels for a given inventory investment
The single exponential smoothing equation states that the ___ forecast is equal to the ___ forecast plus a portion of the ______.
New; old ; error
Identify the basic classifications of forecasting.
Qualitative, times series analysis, casual relationships, and simulation
Tactical forecasts are ___ term, while strategic forecasts are ______ term.
Short ; medium and long
s the moving average period becomes ____ and _____ periods are used, there is more oscillation and there is a closer following of the trend.
Shorter ; fewer
All of the following are reasons why exponential has become well accepted EXCEPT:
Tests for accuracy are difficult
Exponential smoothing forecasting models are suprisingly ______
accurate
With exponential smoothing, which smoothing constant controls the speed of reaction to differences between forecasts and actual demand?
alpha
With a simple moving average, the idea is to simply calculate the ______ demand over the most recent periods
average
A standard approach to choosing among alternative processes or equipment that uses fixed cost, variable costs, and revenue is known as,
break even analysis
What term refers to repetitive activity that happens in other than annual recurrent periods?
cyclical
What term describes when you identify and separate time series data into components?
decomposition
_____ of a time series means identifying and separating the time series data into various components
decomposition
Which of the following is not a step required to make a good?; decoupling, sourcing, delivering, making
decoupling
A simple moving average gives ______ weight to each component of the forecast; whereas a weighted moving average gives ____ weight to each element
equal; varying
All forecasts certainly contain some ____
error
In regards to the service package, the benefits that are readily observable by the senses and that consist of the essential or intrinsic features of service
explicit services
When the most recent occurrences are more indicative of the future than those in the distant past, one should use which time series model?
exponential
When the most recent occurrences are most indicative of the future than those in the distant past, one should use which time series model?
exponential
Single exponential smoothing has the shortcoming of _____ changes in demand
lagging
The time needed to respond to a customer order is called the ____
lead time
____ time is the time needed to respond to a customer order
lead time
Many make-to-stock firms invest in _____ manufacturing programs in order to achieve higher service levels for a given inventory investment.
lean manufacturing
Which of the following is not an element of the service triangle (options; maintenance, service strategy, employees, customers)
maintenance
The issue of balancing the level of finished inventory against the level of service to the customer occurs in which type of firm?
make-to-stock
In business forecasting, what time frame usually refers to three months to two years?
medium
In regards to the service package, the physical resources that must be in place before a service can be offered.
supporting facility
With single exponential smoothing forecasting, the forecast ___ when a change in direction occurs
overshoots
In time series analysis, _______ demand is used to predict ______ demand.
past; future
Long-term forecasting models detect general trends and are especially useful in identifying major ______ _______ .
turning points
_______ variations are caused by chance events
random
A moving average can be useful in removing what for forecasting
random fluctuations
In statistics, the difference between what actually occurred and what was forecast is referred to as what?
residuals
Usually, which word is associated with a period of the year characterized by some activity.
seasonal
Usually, which word is associated with a period of the year characterized by some activity?
seasonal
Which is the larger measure, the standard deviation or MAD?
standard deviation
What types of forecast should be used for strategy, sourcing and location decisions?
strategic
In the make-to-order and engineer-to-order environments, the customer order decoupling point could be in either raw materials at the manufacturing site or possibly even with the ____ inventory
supplier
You generally us short-term forecasts for _______ decisions such as replenishing inventory or scheduling employees in the near term
tactical
In general, the longer the averaging period
the smoother the plot
T/F: A service organization exists to serve the customer
true
True/False: Carrying finished goods inventory is more expensive than carrying raw material inventory
true
When deciding which forecasting model to use, a firm should consider all of the following except:
weather
In a service organization, how management treats the ____ is how they will treat the public
worker
In a service organization, how management treats ___ is how they will treat the public
workers
When calculating a multiplicative seasonal index, what mathematical operator is used to relate the trend and seasonal factor?
x