GCC Final Exam Study Guide
5. Use access to politicians to block regulation: ExxonMobil
-$4 million to federal candidates -Part of Dick Cheney's energy task force -Convinced Bush to renege on comments to Kyoto Protocol -Convinced Bush to oust chair of IPCC -Philip Cooney (White House) censored government reports -With Myron Ebell called for resignation of Christine Todd Whitman of EPA and convinced the Competitive Enterprise Institute to sue the government because the EPA finding was not sound science
5. Use access to politicians to block regulation: James Inhofe
-$847,123 for ExxonMobil and others in oil and gas -Climate change "the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on man"
Methane
-21X more potent than CO2 as a GHG, concentrations are 250X lower than CO2 but it accounts for 18% of greenhouse warming
What else does Milloy argue?
-2nd hand smoke has no demonstrable effects on human health -There is no ozone hole and no proof that the thinning is due to CFC's -Climate change science is junk science -USA should not have a surgeon general -DDT should not be banned -We should have used asbestos in the Twin -Towers -Human evolution will always be in doubt
2. Engage in information laundering: Robert Ferguson
-38 page report on climate science -Not peer-reviewed -Graphs, charts, maps - but are very confusing -Co-author of Wall Street Journal Op-ed pieces -They have a website
Ozone
-Breakdown by CFCs reduces heat trapping at poles -Produced by oxides of nitrogen (car smog) -Produced in upper atmosphere by jet planes, which release nitrogen oxides
2. Engage in information laundering: George C. Marshall Institute
-CEO used to work as CO of American Petroleum Institute, on the board of Competitive Enterprise Institute, past chairman of Global Climate Coalition -Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming ---Patrick Michaels, Sallie Baliunas, Robert Balling, John Christy, Ross McKitrick, Willie Soon
Carbon Cycle
-Carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, but is not very soluble -Occurs in top 100 m of ocean but movement into deeper waters take 100's-1000's of years (solubility pump- resistance in deeper layers, layers don't mix well) -Phytoplankton fix CO2 in top waters, they sink pulling carbon into deep water sediment (biological pump- more important for removing CO2) -Calcium carbonate formers remove a significant amount of CO2 -Coccolithophorids and foraminiferans -Coral reefs are significant sink because of calcium carbonate -With acidification from extra carbon dioxide, calcium cannot be precipitated, thus the ocean will be less able to remove CO2 -Biological pump is reduced because the pH drops and it is difficult to precipitate the calcium carbonate -CO2 is plentiful in the oceans -When plankton die, they sink, depleting surface waters of nutrients -Upwelling areas replenish surface waters and are sources of great productivity -Oceans store 50X more CO2 than the atmosphere and 19X more than terrestrial biosphere -Uptake by oceans will likely decrease as water warms -Oxidation of organic material returns carbon to atmosphere -Trees are most important plants -Solubility pump: ocean dissolves CO2 but doesn't add or remove O2 -Uptake by terrestrial systems will likely decrease as planet warms -Less will be sequestered in organic matter in soils -Offset in north temperate areas
What effect dominates? Depends.
-Cloud height -Cloud's optical properties (water or ice, how thick is it, what is the size of cloud particles) -Low clouds - tend to cool -High clouds - tend to blanket -Jet contrails - cool
2. WARMING OCEAN FEEDBACK (mostly in future)
-Decreased absorption of CO2 by oceans -Warmer water holds less CO2
1. manufactured uncertainty
-Global Climate Science Team 1989 (lobbyists, PR reps, and Steve Milloy of the Advancement of Sound Science Coalition-established by Philip Morris, Myron Ebell of Frontiers of Freedom -"Victories will be achieved when average citizens recognize the uncertainties in climate science' and when public recognition of uncertainty becomes part of the conventional wisdom."
carbon tax with full dividend
-Gradually increase Carbon Tax -Carbon dividends for all Americans -Border Carbon adjustments -Significant Regulatory Rollback
Nitrous Oxide
-Has increased by 16% since start of industrial age -Increased fertilizer use for agriculture -Fix nitrate and ammonia using large amounts of fossil-fuel based electricity -Ammonia is nitrified in soil (converted to nitrate) -Nitrate is denitrified to N2O and N2
5. ICE ALBEDO FEEDBACK (now it is the "tipping point feedback, once we lose ice its gone heat ..melt..heat ..melt...gone)
-Ice has a very high albedo (reflects light back into space) -As it melts, it exposes land and water, both of which absorb more light and heat, reducing reflectivity -The warmer air causes more ice to melt. -More exposed land/water - more heating This is a positive feedback loop (2030 prediction for ice-free Arctic summer)
The big tobacco strategy
-In 1950s scientific evidence emerged linking smoking to cancer -US Tobacco institute founded in 1954. They questioned the evidence, but promised to look at the issue. -Evidence we have now shows that tobacco caused health problems (we have the correspondence) - but they consciously sought to deceive the public to forestall controls
3. Promote scientific spokespeople who misrepresent science to the media and public: Frederick Seitz
-Oversaw funding of tobacco industry sponsored medical research -Wrote the cover letter for the "Petition Project" (the one with the bogus article in PNAS format)
6. PERMAFROST AND SOIL FEEDBACKS (most immediate feedback problem, now)
-Permafrost melts, lakes disappear -organic matter in soil breaks down methane and CO2 are released (up to 70,000 million tons of methane could be released in the next few decades) -These greenhouse gases lead to more warming -Organic soils of boreal forests will likely decompose faster -Soils in England are losing carbon at a rate of 13 million tons/year (equivalent to their Kyoto Protocol reduction of 12.7 million tons/year) (Published in Nature)
Water Vapor
-Powerful greenhouse gas -Clouds and contrails have albedo and reflect -Clouds and contrails shade and cool
CO2
-Principal anthropogenic GHG -Distribution: atmosphere, soil organic matter, terrestrial living organisms, ocean, marine sediments and sedimentary rocks, fossil fuel deposits -We now emit 7.8 Gt CO2 -----75% fossil fuel -----3% cement manufacture -----22% deforestation -----40% remains in the atmosphere -Greatly increased at the start of industrial revolution -Contributors in U.S.: industry, transportation, residential, commercial, agriculture
3. Promote scientific spokespeople who misrepresent science to the media and public: Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas (astrophysicists) - blame it on solar radiation
-Published the infamous paper in Climate Research in 2003 that led to the resignation of three editors of the journal who went on record that some reviewers were not as rigorous in reviews and that the manuscript was flawed. -13 scientists cited in the review paper wrote a rebuttal explaining how Soon and Baliunas had misrepresented their research -Baliunas associated with 9 organizations getting money from ExxonMobil
7. FOREST LOSS FEEDBACKS (now more in future)
-Rates of forest fires have greatly increased in the western United States -Sudden carbon input, and reduces carbon sequestration -Primary fear is that drought in the tropics could lead to fires that cause conversion of Amazon Rain Forest to Caatinga (thorn-scrub forest, much less carbon sequestration)
Clouds interfere with transfer of radiation in the atmosphere in two ways
-Reflect a certain proportion of solar radiation back to space (high albedo) reducing energy available to the system (cooling) -Act as a blanket to thermal radiation from the earth's surface. Absorb thermal radiation and emit radiation (warming) -Day time cooling, night time warming -Low clouds cool, high clouds blanket, jet contrails cool -High clouds trap more heat, low clouds reflect more sunlight
CFCs
-Refrigerants and aerosols -Led to the destruction of ozone layer in stratosphere over Antarctica; 5% loss of ozone column over mid-latitudes -Montreal Protocol was proven and CFCs stopped being made -It will take 100 years for CFCs to make any decline; replaced by HCFCs and HFCs (CFCs do not break down- can be a problem) -Powerful GHG: 5,000-10,000 times as effective as CO2
4. Call for "sound science" instead of action
-Seek to discredit the existing science -Call for funding for "sound science" -The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (founded by Philip Morris) -"The credibility of the EPA is defeatable"
5. Use access to politicians to block regulation: Barton
-Senator from Texas -Has received over 1 million from oil and gas industry -Author of bills subsidizing oil and gas -Commissioned the Wegman Report on Hockey Stick
Methane Human Sources
-Since 1800 has doubled (unprecedented for 650,000 years) -Leakage from coal mines, oil and gas wells, belching by cattle, rice paddy fields, landfill sites, burning wood and peat, waste treatment
3. ACIDIFIED OCEAN FEEDBACKS (has begun but more in future)
-Some areas of ocean are becoming acidified due to excess CO2 in atmosphere - this could lead to the decrease in calcified organisms that can no longer precipitate CaCO3. -Decreased absorption of CO2 by oceans -If phytoplankton are affected by acidification (such as coccolithophorids), their primary productivity will decrease and this will also reduce the oceans ability to sequester CO2
cap and trade criticisms
-emissions reduction is too slow (since Kyoto, European Union has cut only by 2.4%) -creates perverse incentives (companies should not clean up emissions ow, because polluting plants will be grandfathered (get more free permits initially) -most of the countries doing this gave out too many permits to begin with, which were a financial windfall for companies that traded permits on the international market
4. Call for "sound science" instead of action: Milloy
-founded the Advancement of Sound Science Center with funds from ExxonMobil (50K) and the Free Enterprise Education Institute (address is the same as Milloy's home -60K). He is also a commentator for Fox News (Junk Science Commentator) -Has a website -Has a BA in natural science and a law degree
carbon taxes are imposed on fossil fuel
-gasoline, natural gas, coal -direct incentive to all to conserve -has been used to provide disincentive for inefficient vehicles -regressive tax (hurts lower income groups more than higher income groups, like sales tax) -if cost of FF goes up, more likely to conserve
Chewbacca defense
-red herring -aim of the argument is to deliberately confuse the audience
Tu Quoque
-red herring -appeal to hypocrisy
Appeal to spite
-red herring -appeal to listeners spiteful feelings
Ad Hominem
-red herring -attack the messanger
Nut picking
-red herring -find a nutty spokesman and make fun
Judgemental language
-red herring -sarcasm to discredit viewpoint
Appeal to motive
-red herring -saying you can't trust it → motive to be dishonest
Pollution is an externality
-something a corporation or individual does that affects the welfare of another outside the market -externalities are not corrected by the free market -polluters save money by putting wastes in the commons
Importance of aerosols
Cause cooling -Sulfates from coal burning are important -Haze: particulate pollution SO2 salt clouds: help clouds form and rain -Shades planet and reflect light The warming impact of all greenhouse gases excluding CO2 = cooling impact of SO2
3. Promote scientific spokespeople who misrepresent science to the media and public
"Identify, recruit and train a team of five independent scientists to participate in media outreach. These will be individuals who do not have a long history and/or participate in climate change debate. Rather this team will consist of new faces who will add their voices to those recognized scientists who are already vocal."
Cap and Trade
(not tax) - incentive to corporations - cap created on how much emissions of each pollutant are allowed - company own permits - if they go beyond cap they buy permits from other companies that do not need all of permits - economic incentive and profitable for those who sell permits - used for SO2 - cap starts high and is lowered over time - slow process
5. Use access to politicians to block regulation
Tobacco company has hired lobbyists who were in government -Craig Fuller (Reagan and Bush I administrations) -Haley Barbour (GOP chair and Mississippi Gov) -George Mitchell (Reagan administration)
Correlation proves causation
a correlation between two phenomena is assumed to indicate causation. Works best when there might be a logical assumption that one phenomenon is dependent on the other
Stratosphere warms
based on solar radiation and ozone trapping heat. It is cooling. Warming is not from the sun: GHG are trapping heat.
Troposphere warms
by convection from warm earth; the surface warms and transfers heat to the atmosphere. Cold air on top of warm air is unstable so troposphere constantly mixes
Incentives
for insulating home or business - installing alternative energy in home or business - adopting other means of lowering your carbon footprint - ex - cash for clunkers - temporary but too successful cause it cost money -temporary but too successful cause it cost money Most likely - tax incentives - most impact - carbon tax
Weather related economic loss
global inflation adjusted losses rose by an order of magnitude over the last 50 years. Part of the rise is linked to socio-economic factors and the other half is linked to global climate change.
Command and control regulation
government sets limits with excess being illegal - enforced through fines or criminal charges - many pollutants are regulated this way already - heavy metals and particulates
Climate has changed before
Skeptic: Climate has changed before, natural, CO2 not the cause Counter: GHGs due to humans, GHGs then and now. Rates are so rapid that we cannot compare to the past. Climate is always changing. We have had ice ages and warmer periods when alligators were found in Spitzbergen. Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand year cycles for the last 700 thousand years and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present, despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now. More recently we have had the medieval warming period and the little ice age. - red herrings - climate changed because of various natural solar forcings - does not mean that anthropogenic is not primary
Global Warming stopped in 1998
Skeptic: Climate has not changed since 1998 Counter: Climate continued to warm since 1998
Recent warming is due to cosmic rays
Skeptic: Cosmic rays cause cloud formation and greater cooling, sun's increased magnetic field that block rays Counter: magnetic field of sun has not changed, no evidence that it is increasing, not correlated with cloud cover Lacks data
Earth is actually cooling
Skeptic: Earth is cooling Counter: Earth is actually warming due to anthropogenic causes Cherry-picking, false argument
Quoting out of context
selective excerpting of words from their original context in a way that distorts the source's intended meaning
Carbon Tax
universal incentive - idea of 100% dividend - imposed on fossil fuels - gasoline, natural gas, coal - direct incentive for all to conserve - initially regressive tax unless it is made a 100% dividend then it's good for poor
greenland at one time was green
Skeptic: Global warming was a natural then, and therefore should still be natural, 1003 A.D. was warmer than today's temperature (during the Medieval Warm Period), Warming was a global phenomenon. Counter: The Greenland ice sheet is at least 400,000 years old and a "greener" Greenland was due to a regional phenomenon, Solar variations are not the cause of today's global climate change, Greenland was warming in the past due to obliquity (Milankovitch Cycle), greenhouses gases caused past climate change, and contribute to today's anthropogenic climate change (Red Herring Fallacy).
Mars is warming
Skeptic: Mars is getting warmer Counter: Mars has nothing to do with earth, flawed study - 2 data points, not getting warmer Red herring-irrelevant with what earth is doing
Gains in Antarctic Sea Ice balance the losses in Arctic Sea Ice
Skeptic: Over the last 30 years the loss of arctic ice matches the gain of antarctic sea ice. Ice loss = ice gain (balanced each other out) Counter: Sea ice loss in arctic is 3x the sea ice gain in Antarctica. Overall losing sea ice, does not balance out.
An ice age was predicted in the 1970s
Skeptic: Scientists have been calling for detrimental cooling period, claimed in 1970s, Can't trust scientists because they said cooling, then said it was warming, talking about the media. Counter: Cherry picking, majority claiming warming, we are much more fearful of ice than warmth
Recent recorded warming is just the Urban Heat Island effect
Skeptic: Urbanization causing the warming trend, temperature stations are in urban areas. Counter: Urban areas have a lower albedo than surrounding rural areas, due to black surfaces. Rural areas have same amount of heat as urban areas, trends show this. Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions Red herring
Global Warming is not bad
Skeptic: Warm is better than cold Counter: paintings used is bad evidence, are not 12 warm periods in the cycle False
Arctic ice melt we see now is due to a natural cycle
Skeptic: arctic sea ice melt is natural, the North West Passage has been open before, so there has been melting before Counter: Was never shipping between NWP (melting has not occurred before), now there is melting and shipping does occur between the passage Red herring because warming is now due to GHG
The recent warming is due to variation in solar activity
Skeptic: increase in sunspots, solar activity is causing world to get warmer Counter: Sunspots and solar activity don't have huge impact on global climate on short term time scales, solar radiation is decreasing Both irrelevant and untrue, sunspot activity does contribute to climate but not as much as they are trying to show
Models are unreliable
Skeptic: models show inconsistency, used to scare people Counter: thousands of stations, models have been tested to be accurate
There is no scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming
Skeptic: no evidence that anthropogenic CO2 will cause catastrophic effects, petition project, sent out to every professor Counter: Did not verify anyone. Anyone can sign up, not a real survey.
Ocean acidification isn't serious
Skeptic: ocean is so big and deep that we cannot predict or detect ocean acidification, CO2 harmless Counter: our emissions of CO2 are not harmless, absorbed by ocean, chemical changes, PH decreases=ocean more acidic False-unsupportive assertion
Oceans are cooling
Skeptic: oceans cooling, thus no global warming Counter: oceans still cool, but it is warming due to GHG emissions Untrue argument
Arctic sea ice extent and thickness
-biological and physical indicator -thinned by 40% in recent decades in summer to fall and decreased by 10-15% since 1950s in spring and summer
non-polar glaciers
-biological and physical indicator -widespread retreat in 20th century
Trump
23 environmental rollbacks, 19 are rollbacks against mitigating climate change → against fossil fuel industry 1. Approved the Dakota Access pipeline. 2. Revoked a rule that prevented coal mining companies from dumping debris into local streams. 3. Canceled a requirement for reporting methane emissions 4. Approved the Keystone XL pipeline 5. Overturned a ban on the hunting of predators in Alaskan wildlife refuges 6. Withdrew guidance for federal agencies to include greenhouse gas emissions in environmental reviews
Explain the source and history of the "Hockey Stick Controversy".
-Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick who questioned an article on statistical grounds in 2003 paper in Energy and the Environment. In 2005 Joe Barton a climate change denialist called for an inquiry into the hockey stick controversy. requested the data from Mann and all the data for all of Mann's publications and identities of his present collaborators. AAAS said the request was inappropriate. Mann complies and gave all data and sources to code of Congress. NAS and NRC both did reports on the subject. Both 2006 reports confirmed MBH98 in terms of general conclusions and integrity. -They soften the conclusion regarding the warmest temperature in the last 1000 years. The Hockey Stick was the reconstructed temperature data from 1000-2000. The shaft was the stick showed gradually cooling temperatures and then the stick face jutted upward to show the last few decades were the warmest in any comparable period in the last 400 years and unprecedented in the last 1000 years. Barton then did an independent study with a team of renowned scientists. This report destroyed the hockey stick controversy. The Wegman report was investigated. Only case in which a paper was investigated in congress. Numerous studies verified MBH 1998, the paper stands.
Economics
-Taking no action will eventually cost more -The cost of mitigation is only slightly higher than the cost of adaptation and when we must adapt we will be stuck with future mitigation costs as well -Adaptation and mitigation play out on different time scales -There are multiple benefits from actions -No-regrets proposals: more efficient, less expensive, we will like the benefits -If we think economically 20+ years in the future, we should do something -The projected damage and adaptation costs are higher than the projected mitigation costs -Consider action to be in our own interest -We need to cut because stabilization is not enough -Still will warm 4 degrees C if cut to 1900 levels (??) -We have enough oil and natural gas to meet needs until 2050 and then the prices will go up as we get past peak oil
4. WARMING METHANE CLATHRATES (in future and most concerning)
-Thought to be responsible for global warming that caused the End-Permian Mass extinction (95% of species went extinct) 55.8 million years ago -Also responsible for the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ---Rise in temperature of 6°C over 20,000 years ---Led to extinction of benthic foraminifera, and a radiation of many mammal species ---The rate of carbon increase in atmosphere was almost equal to the rate of anthropogenic release today
2. Engage in information laundering
-Underwrite think tanks (its tax free) - they fund the spokesperson to get the message out -American Enterprise Institute -The Competitive Enterprise Institute -The Cato Institute -American Council for Capital Formation Center for Policy Research -American Legislative Exchange Council -The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow -$16 million between 1998 and 2005 -These institutes all fund the same group of spokespeople. They have the same scientists on their boards -An echo chamber - one spokesperson says something, they all put it on their websites, they all say the same thing to the media, everyone's on message and saying the same thing
Most convincing evidence that anthropogenic
-Warming of the atmosphere, ocean, + loss of ice support that the warming of the last 50 years not bc of unforced variability -seen in surface and free atmosphere temps, .incs in temps of upper hundred meters of the ocean as well as in sea level rises -seen in the tropospheric warming with stratospheric cooling that is a result of stratospheric ozone depletion -Temperature increased by 0.60°C 1900-2000 -Temperature increased by 0.76°C 1850-2005 -The temperature is warmer now than it has been in the last 1000 years -WE SHOULD BE IN COOLING CYCLE IF WE WANT TO SAY IT'S NATURAL -The earth has been in a natural cooling cycle for 6,000 years and that cooling cycle will continue for another 23,000 years
Our contributions of CO2
-We now emit about 7.8 Gt CO2 -About 75% of that is from fossil fuels -About 3% is from cement manufacture -About 22% is from deforestation (uncertain) Of that -About 60% is reabsorbed in the ocean and terrestrial life -About 40% remains in the atmosphere (this is the amount that is driving up the ppm of CO2)
Methane Natural Sources
-Wetlands are primary source: methanogenic archaea -Termites -Ocean- can be anoxic -Positive feedbacks with warming ----Permafrost melting and decomposing ----Methane clathrate melting in ocean
Cherry picking
-act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position ---Type of faulty generalization ---Most common skeptic argument against climate change ---Selective attention, confirmation bias
Straw man
-an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not advanced by that opponent -Saying scientists say "..." when the scientists haven't said it
Snow cover
-biological and physical indicator -decreased by 10% since 1960s
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
-biological and physical indicator -decreased by 2 weeks in 20th century in mid and high latitudes in northern hemi
Breeding, flowering, and migration
-biological and physical indicator -earlier flowering, early bird arrival, earlier dates for breeding season, and early emergence of bugs in the northern hemis
coral reef bleaching
-biological and physical indicator -increased frequency esp during el nino events
Growing season
-biological and physical indicator -lengthened by 1-4 days per decade in last 50 years in north
El Nino Events
-biological and physical indicator -more frequent and intense during late twentieth century compared to last 100 yrs
Global mean sea level
-biological and physical indicator -rising, average of 1-2mm in 20th century now 3mm from 1993-2003
plants and animal ranges
-biological and physical indicator -shifted poleward and up in elevation for plants, insects, birds and fish
Permafrost
-biological and physical indicator -thawed, warmed, and degraded in polar, subpolar, and mountain regions
1. WATER VAPOR (has begun)
-these have already happened, not going to be a runaway feedback, it is why we have warmed up as much as we have -Climate slightly warms from CO2 release (about 1.2 degrees with double of CO2), if no feedbacks occurred we just have radiative forcings. We have feedback from water vapor. -Higher temperature leads to more evaporation from oceans and wet land surfaces. The effect of this water vapor is double the temperature increase. The current rate of increase is 2.1 ppm/yr. Clouds interfere with transfer of radiation in the atmosphere in two ways. They reflect a certain proportion of solar radiation back to space (high albedo) reducing energy available to the system (COOLING) -Act as a blanket to thermal radiation. Absorb thermal radiation and emit radiation (WARMING) -DAY TIME COOLING, NIGHT TIME WARMING -Low clouds cool, high clouds warm, jet contrails cool, cloud height and optical properties matter -Oceans and atmosphere coupled, evaporation from oceans is main source of water vapor, in warmer climate there is more water vapor and more high clouds
Cold/frost days
-weather indicator -decreased in all land areas during 20th century
Hot days/heat index
-weather indicator -increased
Continental Precipitation
-weather indicator -increased 10% over 20th century in north and decreased in areas of Africa and Mediterranean
Heavy precipitation events
-weather indicator -increased at mid and high north latitudes
Northern hemisphere surface temp
-weather indicator -increased over 20th century greater than any century in last 1000 yrs, 1990s was warmest decade of the millennium
Drought
-weather indicator -increased summer drying and drought in a few areas. Since 1970s increase in total area affected in many regions of the world.
8. OCEAN CIRCULATION (ocean currents impact climate, not yet in future)
Ocean has more heat capacity than atmosphere -a large amount of heat is needed to warm oceans slightly -heat capacity of atmosphere is equal to 3 m of water -oceans consequently reduce extremes of atmospheric temperature, reduce rate of climate change Oceans redistribute heat in climate system through internal circulation -Heat transferred from equator to poles by oceans is similar to that transferred by atmosphere -However, it is not equal (regional differences are vital) -Gulf Stream transports 1000 terawatts of energy to heat Europe (global energy production is 12 terawatts) THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION -Deep water formation occurs at the poles -Warm water arrives, evaporation makes it saltier -Evaporation cools the water -Sea ice forms, producing cold saline brine -The combination of these factors causes deep water current to form -These deep water currents drive the circulation system! -Generally thought to slow the warming because of latent heat (negative feedback) -Changes are very slow, but warming of bottom waters would mean response to dropping CO2 would also be slow -It is thought that there is "heating in the pipeline" - warming that will continue to occur despite whatever we may do. Also called "commitment" -Climate lags radiative forcing
Red Herring
Red herring: something that misleads or distracts from a relevant or important issue. It is not relevant to the argument; typically a logical fallacy.
Satellites show no warming in the atmosphere
Skeptic: Actually a negative feedback loop, not positive Counter: Surface temperature records are more important, cherry picking with only one set of satellite data Misrepresentation of data, not true
Antarctica is actually gaining ice
Skeptic: Antarctica is gaining sea ice Counter: Gaining sea ice (does not affect sea level), losing land ice, looks at max extent of sea ice in winter, look globally not regionally, sea ice growing does not negate climate warming Faulty misrepresentation
CO2 lagged behind temperature in the ice age/interglacial cycle
Skeptic: CO2 increases after temperature increases Counter: Interglacial warming due to earth's orbit. CO2 causes and effect of warming, feedback loops, CO2 that high is NOT natural.
We're just recovering from the Little Ice Age
Skeptic: Cause of little ice age, increased during this time Counter: Output of solar energy has remained the same, so it is caused by GHG emissions
