quiz 4 operations management

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors? 0.10 0.2246 0.50 0.90 cannot be determined

0.10

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast? 0 1 divided by the number of periods 0.5 1.0 cannot be determined

1.0

John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month's demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand three months ago. If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May, 2200 pancakes in June, and 3000 pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August? 2511 1622 3767 2067 2400

2511

What is the forecast for May using a four-month moving average? 43 42 47 38 44

44

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners? CPFR SUPPLY MSCP MULTISUP FORE

CPFR

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents? associative models time series sales force composite Delphi method jury of executive opinion

Delphi method

Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process? Eliminate any assumptions. Select the forecasting model. Determine the use of the forecast. Determine the time horizon of the forecast. Validate and implement the results.

Eliminate any assumptions.

Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE? Exponential smoothing is more easily used in combination with the Delphi method. Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data. Exponential smoothing allows one to develop forecasts for multiple periods, whereas the weighted moving average technique does not. Exponential smoothing is considerably more difficult to implement on a computer. More emphasis can be placed on recent values using the weighted moving average.

Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data.

_______ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values. MAD MAPE FIT MSE The smoothing constant

MAPE

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called: random variation. exponential variation. seasonality. a cycle. a trend.

a trend.

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of: trend projection. adaptive smoothing. focus forecasting. exponential smoothing including trend. multiple regression analysis.

adaptive smoothing.

Many services maintain records of sales noting: the day of the week. unusual events. the weather. holiday impacts. All of these.

all of these

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand? trend projection weighted moving average associative models moving average exponential smoothing

associative models

The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the: mean. alpha. mean absolute deviation. cumulative error. coefficient of correlation.

coefficient of correlation.

As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts: are less accurate. deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions. employ similar methodologies. All of these None of these

deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n): naive forecast. moving average forecast. weighted moving average forecast. exponential smoothing forecast. qualitative forecast.

exponential smoothing forecast.

true or false? A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

false

true or false? In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

false

true or false? Mean squared error and exponential smoothing are two measures of the overall error of a forecasting model.

false

true or false? The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method, the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand.

false

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand: has been changing due to recent promotional efforts. is rather stable. exceeds one million units per year. follows a downward trend. follows an upward trend.

is rather stable.

Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a: naive method, because there is no data history. long-range time horizon. trend extrapolation. medium-range time horizon. short-range time horizon.

long-range time horizon.

The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to: eliminate forecast errors. estimate the trend line. seasonally adjust the forecast. remove random variations. measure forecast accuracy.

measure forecast accuracy.

Which of the following is not present in a time series? operational variations cycles seasonality trend random variations

operational variations

In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted? large decreases in demand cycles large increases in demand seasonal fluctuations random variations

random variations

True or False? Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

true

True or False? The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

true

true or false? Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.

true

true or false? In trend projection, the trend component is the slope of the regression equation.

true

true or false? The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

true

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should: use a simple moving average. use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. change to an associative multiple regression approach. change to a qualitative approach. use weights to minimize the importance of the trend.

use weights to place more emphasis on recent data.

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing? uses the previous period's forecast uses an easily altered weighting scheme weights each historical value equally smoothes random variations in the data has minimal data storage requirements

weights each historical value equally