HLS 580 Exam 2
Environment either
contributes to or causes destabilization in already fragile governments
Cascading effects of climate change
"... climate change increases the risk of conflicts, poverty and hunger, undermines human rights and is a growing cause of forced migration."
Number and cost of U.S. climate disasters
254 since 1980, overall damages exceeded $1.7 trillion
____ of the U.S. energy budget comes from fossil fuels
86%
Risk Assessment
A process or method for evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of probability and frequency of occurrence, magnitude and severity, exposure, and consequences
Technology
Can the govt. incentivize technology to optimize both access and efficiency
Obama NSS
Economic enlargement and international partnerships, first among equals
MDC, LDC disaster response difference
MDC more likely to be able to create resilience, create financing to share disaster burden (insurance)
Stafford Act Public Assistance Process
Takes a minimum of 72 hours to deliver aid
Crisis du jour has lead to
lack of institutionalized imagination
Utilizing cascade model
➢Extreme events and climatic anomalies are naturally occurring phenomena that can be hazards to a population. ❑We want to discern how much we know about these hazards ➢These phenomena cause destabilizing environmental effects in a nation or region, perhaps through natural disasters or simply adding to the stress of an already stressed ecosystem. ❑Using information from the environmental health, population dynamics, and food production lectures, can we understand the relationship between the phenomena and their effects on the environment of a nation or region? ➢Examine potential security impacts from the environmental effects ❑Can we assess risk to a population from the natural hazards it faces?
Value Added to HLS and NS by human security
1)Focuses on widespread and cross-cutting threats to the survival, livelihood and dignity of individuals and communities (respect for human values). 2)Complements/expands state security, enhances human rights, and strengthens human development (security, respect for human values). 3)Addresses threats in an integrated, multi-dimensional and comprehensive way. This not only helps mitigate the impact of these threats but also reduces their expansion into broader and more intractable crises (security, stable inter'lorder). 4)Highlights the actual needs, vulnerabilities and capacities of those impacted and strengthens the development of solutions (security, prosperity, respect for human values).
Signs of global warming
1)Increased retreat of glaciers in the Alps, Andes, Himalayas and northern Cascades in Washington; 2)Northward migrations of warm climate fish and trees; 3)Spread of some tropical diseases away from the equator (e.g., dengue fever into Texas); 4)Increased bleaching of coral reefs in tropical waters. 5)More frequent / more intense storms, wildfires, water shortages, etc.. 6)An increase in the number of "warmest years on record" across the globe. 7)Changes in precipitation patterns across the globe. 8)Others ???
3 Characteristics of climate change that elevate urgency of research
1)Unprecedented rate of change (remember the 4 rules of environmentalism?) 2)CC acts as a threat multiplier 3)CC comes with specific uncertainties that are dangerous to ignore.
4 Risk Management Strategies
1. Avoidance: Includes not performing an activity that could carry risk (EX moving away from hazard-prone area) 2. Retention: Accept the level of risk and its consequences (EX live in flood area with no protection or flood insurance) 3. Transfer: Transferring the risk of loss by causing another party to accept the risk, by contract or hedging (EX flood insurance) 4. Mitigation: Involves taking precautionary actions, enacting controls or countermeasures to reduce potential losses from the hazard (EX: levy system, construction standards for hurricane), reduces potential loss but doesn't mitigate risk
Areas of climate change where there is some debate
1. Carbon cycle and climate 2. Volcanoes and other drivers of climate change existence 3. Climate sensitivity-how long until systems fail 4. Attribution of climate change-more precise estimates of the anthropogenic contribution 5. Future climate change-what will the climate be like in the future at various levels of CO2
Solutions to air quality problems
1. Change business, change lifestyles 2. Rejoin the Paris Accords 3. Appreciate and leverage the collective impact of individual lives
An alternate view of planning (Flournoy and Brimley)
1. Conduct quadrennial National Security Review at outset of every new presidential term 2. Establish semiannual "over the horizon" reviews 3)Establish an annual "table-top" exercise program for senior national security officials 4)Create a classified national security planning guidance 5)Create a National Security Council Senior Director and Office for Strategic Planning 6)Conduct NSC/Office of Management and Budget Mission Area reviews
Higher temperatures are expected to raise sea level by:
1. Expanding ocean water 2. Melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps 3. Causing portions of the coastal sections of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to melt or slide into the ocean
How the environment impacts security 2 cascades
1. Extreme environmental events and climatic anomalies (flooding, storms) 2. Destabilizing effects from extreme events or climatic anomalies (impaired food production, reduced access to fresh water) 3. Adverse security impacts of the environmental factors (failed states and growth of terrorism, mass migration)
ES classification of natural hazards
1. Hazards associated with single events 2. Hazards associated with long-term climatic anomalies *It should be noted that a hazard could belong to both categories, e.g., flooding can be caused by either a single event or a long-term climatic anomaly such as a prolonged period of above-normal rainfall.
Lessons from Eisenhower show
1. National Security Adviser has evolved into powerful position who has pushed NSC staff into dominant foreign policy process position 2. Informal methods of presidential decision-making have eclipsed the more structured and formal mechanisms that were once equally prominent and valued 3. As administrations have become increasingly focused on crisis management and daily operations, Congress, Govt. agencies, and think tanks have attempted to address strategic planning deficit
Less well understood aspects of climate change
1. Observations are not good enough to quantify with confidence some aspects of the evolution of climate change 2. Extent to human or natural activities influencing formation 3. Future potential for increasing CO2 uptake by land and oceans is very poorly understood 4. Impacts of Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets melting and retreating on sea level rise and oceanic circulations not well understood 5. Regional climate change models are limited but rapidly becoming accurate
3 grand strategic objectives
1. Preserve American security 2. Promote American values 3. Bolster American economic prosperity
Defining weather
1. State of atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects on life and human activities 2. Certain set of 6 properties of the troposphere (temperature, precipitation, pressure, humidity, cloud cover, wind direction and speed)
3 key ES principles
1.Failure to secure the environment likely acts as a threat multiplier-especially in fragile nations or regions with pervasive conflict -so knowing how to avoid/offset catastrophic env. changes is in the nation's vital interest ➔objective. 2.ES may act differentially across nations; that is, failure to secure the environment may destabilize the political economy of less developed countries potentially leading to radicalization but may instead act to create vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure in more developed countries ➔policy. 3.ES can be used as a nexusfor both an overseas-focused counter-terrorism strategy as well as a long-term homeland security strategy.
US Energy Breakdown
16% of all commercial energy goes to useful tasks or is converted to petrochemicals, 41% is lost due to the 2nd law of thermodynamics, and 43% wasted unnecessarily.
Heat wave monitoring
2003 EU heat wave showed significant departures from normal, NASA monitoring shows worldwide heatwave trend
Annual cost of global warming
According to one study the combined impacts of Climate change, land degradation and water scarcity could cost as much as $8 trillion in agriculture assets each year. This is the finding of a studyfrom the University of Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.
Stages of drought
As a drought persists, the conditions surrounding it gradually worsen and its impact on the local population gradually increases. Droughts go through three stages before their ultimate cessation 1. Meteorological drought is brought about when there is a prolonged period with less than average precipitation. Usually precedes the other kinds of drought. 2. Agricultural droughts are droughts that affect crop production or the ecology of the range. This condition can also arise independently from any change in precipitation levels when soil conditions and erosion triggered by poorly planned agricultural endeavors cause a shortfall in water available to crops. However, in a traditional drought, it is caused by an extended period of below average precipitation. 3. Hydrological drought is brought about when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes and reservoirs falls below the statistical average. Like an agricultural drought, this can be triggered by more than just a loss of rainfall. •Kazakhstan was recently awarded a large amount of money by the World Bank to restore water that had been diverted to other nations from the Aral Sea under Soviet rule. Similar circumstances also place their largest lake, Balkhash, at risk of completely drying out.
Cold Wave definition
As used in the U.S. National Weather Service, a rapid fall in temperature within 24 hours to temperatures requiring substantially increased protection to agriculture, industry, commerce, and social activities. Therefore, the criterion for a cold wave is twofold: the rate of temperature fall, and the minimum to which it falls. The latter depends upon region and time of year.
ES Definition
Challenges to national or homeland security posture that result from extreme environmental or climatic events acting locally or transnationally to destabilize the countries or regions of the world, resulting in geopolitical instability, resource conflicts, vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, or some combination of these impacts.
Why study natural hazards and disasters in a HLS course?
Can cascade into hunger, political instability, etc. Can be life threatening
Anthropogenic climate change
Climate change that is induced by human activities, primarily by releasing carbon into the atmosphere via lifestyles and economy
Broad scope impact of climate change
Climate change will affect DoDin two broad ways. First, climate change will shape the operating environment, roles, and missions that we undertake. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, composed of 13 federal agencies, reported in 2009 that climate-related changes are already being observed in every region of the world, including the United States and its coastal waters. Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the further weakening of fragile governments. Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity, will increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration. Hard not to make connection between climate change and insecurity, or climate change and terrorism
Ways
Concepts by which the ends are attained
Earthquake
Result from the sudden release of stored energy in the earth's crust that creates seismic waves
Water resources global warming
Decreased precipitation and rising seas increased salinity, rising pollution concentration in lakes, streams and bays, flooding of coastal areas, disrupting populations and destroying beaches, flooding of agricultural lowlands, increased drought.
Prioritization of US national objectives
Determined by assessing the intensity of interest, interest defined by vital, important and peripheral
ES tied to NSS
Using the Army War College national strategy planning model to help determine where ES might fit into the planning process
Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS)
Goal to deliver DoD portion of the President's budget
Human activities and volcano emissions
Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year
Vital
If unfulfilled, will have immediate consequences for core national interests
Peripheral
If unfulfilled, will result in damage that is unlikely to affect core national interests
Important
If unfulfilled, will result in damage that will eventually affect core national interests
Food production global warming
Increased crop loss due to insects and diseases, and decreasing water supplies from lakes and streams due to droughts
To what degree do these threats become security issues for the U.S. due to vulnerabilities in our infrastructure?
Lives at risk, economy hampered, must devote resources to recovery and rebuild
How do natural hazards relate to security at local, state, national level?
Local: Essential services can't be delivered, lives threatened, disaster response important State: Budget costs, economic impact, political instability Federal: Budget costs, can't afford too many disasters at once, terrorism/political instability
Coastal populations
Over 50% of global population lives on or near the coast and 14/17 mega cities are coastal
Risk Management
Process of deciding what should be done about a hazard; deciding which hazards at what scale (intensity, occurrence interval) should be managed and in what priority
2017 US NSS
Protect homeland, promote American prosperity, preserve peace through strength, advance American influence
Uncertainty guidance
Provided by IPCC, draws distinction between confidence in scientific understanding and likelihoods of specific results
Means
Resources needed to achieve the objectives DIME-Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic (Are and should be overlaps between 4)
ES tied to HLS
Risk mitigation from natural environment hazards involves similar actions to risk mitigation from terrorist attacks
Assessing risk in order to determine a risk management strategy
Risk of event = probability of event occurring X potential loss(es) from event L R=PxL
2015 US NSS
Security, prosperity, values stable international order
Social vulnerability
Sensitivity to this exposure due to population and housing characteristics: age, low income, disability, home value, or other factors
National purpose
Starting point, "Enduring values and beliefs embodied in the national purpose represent the legal, philosophical, and moral basis for continuation of the American system."
Efficiency
The "net energy yield" refers to how much energy do we get out relative to the amount put in
Scientific consensus
The collective judgement, position, and opinion of the community of scientists in a particular field of study
Access
The creating, storage, distribution of energy available, affordable, socially acceptable
National Interests
The ends, 1.Protection against attack on the territory and people of the U.S. 2.Promotion of values 3.Stable international order 4.Economic prosperity
Risk
The potential losses associated with a hazard, defined in terms of expected probability and frequency, exposure, and consequences
Climate
The slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, and the land surface system
How do these threats become security issues for the U.S. and its allies? Can we predict this? What about in LDCs?
Threatens energy supply, threatens risk of transnational extremism, destabilizes LDC
Uncertainty in science
To scientists, uncertainty is how well something is known
Grand strategy
Vision to achieve U.S. core national interests
Natural Hazard
a hazard that evolves from atmospheric or weather, geologic, hydrologic, and seismic events.
Hazard
an event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business and other types of harm or loss.
Natural hazard single event type
avalanche, earthquakes, volcanoes, cyclones, tornadoes, etc.
Natural hazards associated with climatic anomalies
droughts, coastal erosion, cold wave, floods, wildfires, heat wave
Energy security is about
efficiency, access, technology
Eisenhower was last president to
employ a formal strategic planning process
Wicked climate security problems in HLS
environmental security, energy security, social justice, immigration, asymmetric transnational extremism, food security, sustainable human security
Tropical storms typically form near the
equator
Potential effects of climate change
food production, water resources, forests, human population, weather extremes
Human security
holds that a people-centered view of security is necessary for national, regional and global stability.
Additional signs of climate change
increased retreat of glaciers, northward migration of warm climate fish and trees, spread of tropical diseases away from equator, increased bleaching of coral reefs
Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be
most impacted by climate change
Ends
objectives being sought
Global warming
part of climate change, global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation (over 90% of climate scientists agree with this consensus)
Controlling independent variable for all ES issues
population growth
Weather extremes global warming
prolonged heat waves and droughts, increased flooding, more intense storms
US dependence on oil makes us...
reliant on foreign oil
Space weather threats
solar flare, geomagnetic storm, Can cause electrical grid disruptions, GPS issues, loss of satellite, radiation hazards
NSS is the _____ for the entire military strategic planning process
starting point
China _______ renewable energy investments made in the US and Europe in 2012
surpassed
Natural Disaster
the consequence of a natural hazard which moves from potential into an active phase, and as a result affects human activities. Can be summarized by statement "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability".
National security
the requirement to maintain the survival of the state through the use of economic, diplomacy, power projection & political power
Regions with the highest growth rates and most challenging access to water are
the same
The economy is a...
wholly owned subsidiary of the environment
Environmental analysis must also include
wider political/historical/economic view of region