POLISCI 4327 Midterm

Major aspects of politics in: QATAR

4247 sq. mi.; 2.169 million people; $93,714 GDP per capita (tops most lists). Muslim, mostly Sunni (Wahhabi sect) Home of al-Jazeera. Official language is Arabic, English is widely spoken. Poor before oil production began in 1947. 1990s independent foreign policy emphasizing cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, & Iran. *Today, there is no cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Ruled by al-Thani family. Emir Khalifa holds absolute authority to enact laws, appoint advisory council members, and amend constitution. Spoken out against economic embargo of Iraq. *Trying to bolster economy with oil, Iraq becomes essential trading partner. Made overtures to Israel. *Why? US relations. Signed defense cooperation agreement with US. Ruling monarch Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani inherited the throne from his father in 2013. Qatar had been gaining regional influence. In addition to al-Jazeera, it won the bid to host the 2022 soccer World Cup. In July 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE broke off relations with Qatar. *They accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the region. Where did the accusation come from? Certain wealthy individuals are funding it, yes, but not the government. Who is saying this? Egypt. Saudi Arabia hates Iran and wants to recruit major players in the region to take their side, so there was a trade-off here - Egypt hates Qatar because of the Muslim Brotherhood. *Qatar has rejected this accusation, calling it unjustified and baseless, show us where the funding for terrorism is in the national public budget. *Why do people support the Muslim Brotherhood? It serves as a social service in society. Yemen & the Maldives also cut ties with Qatar. *Yemeni government (supported by the Saudi regime) needs aid from other Middle Eastern countries - if aligned with Qatar, they cannot have that. Kuwait, Oman the only Gulf Cooperation Council members remaining with ties to Qatar. *This explains why al-Jazeera hates Saudi Arabia and the UAE. *Not dependent on Saudi money, each have elaborate treaties that go back a long time.

Major aspects of politics in: SYRIA

-22.85 million people; 71000 sq. mi.; -74% Sunni, 16% Alawaite (Assad family religion, sect of Shi'ite, can cause friction with community), Druze & other Muslim, 10% Christian. -$2,066 GDP -Arabic official language, some people speak Kurdish, Armenian, and French -Arab socialist resurrection party - the Ba'ath party formed in 1953, uniting ideology of non-Marxian socialism & Arab unity -Formed the United Arab Republic with Egypt in 1958, which fell apart because Syria felt shorted & withdrew. -Coup in 1961 ends UAR -In March 1963, the Ba'ath party assumed power in another coup. -Hafez Assad took power in 1970, effectively controlled Lebanon -Golan Heights has been a major issue with Israel since 1967 (6 Day War); Israel versus Egypt over Straits of Tiran & Gaza Strip/Sinai; Egypt involves Syria & Jordan, Israel ends up with the West Bank/East Jerusalem and occupies the Golan Heights. -November 2012: National coalition for Syrian revolutionary and opposition formed in Qatar; no Islamist militias. Arab league stops short of full recognition.

Major aspects of politics in: SAUDI ARABIA

-$17,820 GDP, but growing unemployment -95% Sunni, 5% Shi'ite: espouse a district interpretation of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism, leading to a strongly religious self-identity. -Central role in OPEC and OAPEC -Stronger economic ties with West than majority of Arab countries -Had a tense relationship with Egypt when Nasser was in power -Iraq threatened Saudi Arabia when it invaded neighbor Kuwait in 1990 -Qu'ran and Shari'a serve as Constitution -King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud and the rest of the royal family get their primary source of religious legitimacy from their close relation with the Ulama -Complex relationship with US -Nominally supported Iran agreement, but not always behind the scenes; plus history of economic cooperation with the West -Some argue that the Saudi anti-pluralist view of Islam gives comfort to extremists such as ISIS. Yet ISIS has reaffirmation that their view is correct, code is not as final as in SA. -Antagonistic relationship with Iran helps create bi-polar ME landscape (Sunni vs. Shi'a; Iranian revolution; Syrian proxy conflict as SA backs rebels, & Iran backs regime; Lebanon & Hezbollah as pro-Iranian; Yemen & rebels pro-Iranianl Saudi support of Saddam Hussein; major backers of SA include Egypt, Bahrain, & the UAE.Iran has close ties with Iraq, large parts of Lebanon & Syria's current leadership. -The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a political and economic alliance of six countries in the Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Major aspects of politics in: JORDAN

-6.61 million people; 34,435 sq. mi.; low GDP -92% Sunni, 8% Christian -Arabic official language; English spoken by upper and middle classes. -History INTERTWINED WITH PALESTINE: -Annexed West Bank in 1950 -King Abdullah assassinated by a Palestinian in 1951 -1970 Civil War: Palestinians vs. Hashemite Kingdom supporters -Gulf War Dilemma: SIDED WITH IRAQ in part due to ties developed during Iran-Iraq war (traded with Iraq). -Now has STRONGEST ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP of all Arab states WITH ISRAEL. -Jordan engaged in two conflicts abroad in 2014 & 2015: airstrikes against ISIS in IRAQ & Houthi rebels in YEMEN. -Many SYRIAN REFUGEES here, lots of difficulty socially -Friendly with US & ISRAEL

Major aspects of politics in: ISRAEL

-8.06 million people; 8000 sq. mi.; $36,051 GDP -Hebrew official language, Arabic used by 15%, English widely spoken -82% Jewish, 14% Muslim (mostly Sunni), 2% Christian, 2% Druze -By most standards, Israel is the only democracy in the region (Iraq?) -Knesset (Parliament) has 120 seats: -Unicameral legislature -Minimum party threshold is only enough for 4 seats --> everyone is voting for the same representatives, no districts/states/provinces to divide it up into. -Close to proportional representation --> closest of any parliamentary democracy to proportional representation in the world. -Heart of the manifestation of political instability in Israeli politics -Ended experiment with direct prime minister election (didn't last long) -Religious/secular split & Mizrachi (Sephardic)/Ashkenazic differences electorally significant -Many more secular Jews than Religious Jews in Israel -Mizrachi --> Jews from Arab lands; grown up in the region & emigrated to Israel. -Ashkenazic --> Northern European Jews (Germany, Poland, Lithuania) -Sephardic --> the Jews who left Spain & Portugal in 1492 when they were kicked out. -A very large portion of these Jews went to the Middle East. -Some went to South America (already spoke the languages) -The others who stayed in Spain & Portugal "converted" to Christianity (in public) but practiced Judaism in private. -When Israel became a state, the Ashkenazic Jews & the Mizrachi Jews populated Israel --> the Sephardic Jews were mixed in with the Mizrachi Jews, and it was impossible to discern between the two groups. -Formal governmental coalition (published) "guidelines" -A recent pivotal role of Orthodox parties, despite lack of overall popular support. -In 2015 election, it was the most right-wing coalition in Israel's history.

Systemic Configuration 3: Cold War Explain the impact of this systemic configuration on the Middle East.

-Bi-polar systemic configuration -Arab States, especially Egypt, viewed USSR as its benefactor with military support and support in UN. -Israel viewed US as its benefactor for military and support in UN. -Collective vs. Selective Security -Collective: one attacked, all fight back -Selective: two separate polar groups do collective security against each other -NATO: US-based -Warsaw Pact: USSR-based

Theodor Herzl - 1860

-Born in 1860? -Secular Zionist -Born in Budapest, Austro-Hungarian Empire -Grew up as an assimilated Western Jew -"Assimilated" implies religion is a lesser identity than other identities -1894 - Herzl works for a Viennese newspaper -Sees virulent anti-Semitism at the Paris trial of Capt. Alfred Dreyfus (French Jewish army officer falsely accused of selling military secrets to Germany) -1896 - Herzl writes Der Judenstaat (The Jewish State) in which he argues that anti-Semitism follows Jews, who were therefore a "nation without a land." -Therefore, world powers should grant them a territory to fulfill the needs of a nation. Jewish masses would emigrate from Europe to either Palestine or Argentina. -1897 - First world Zionist conference held in Basle, Switzerland. -1902 - British Government offered Uganda for Jewish settlement, splitting religious and secular Zionists. -1904 - Herzl dies. Zionist movement increases, but rift continues.

Systemic Configuration 1: British Mandate/League of Nations. Explain the impact of this systemic configuration on the Middle East.

-Colonial system gave no serious voice to the people of the Middle East. -British colonial rule/role, imperialism legitimized by the League of Nations. -League of Nations was precursor to the UN. -Types of colonialism: -Rich country enters country with resources and sells goods back at set price. -Military rule -Artificial "nation-states" and boundaries were set in London and Paris, and they still have repercussions today. -Turkmen (most live in Turkmenistan) -Live in territory split between Syria and Turkey -Not ethnically Turkish -Enter Russia -US says peace coalition -Russia says terrorists -Russian jet bombed Syrian side of territory, but inevitably flew into Turkish airspace. -Turkey notified jet to leave, then shot it down -This top-down colonial decision-making process characterizes British mandate period. -Present day Iraq, Syria, and Yemen are influences by decisions during mandate period. How does the League of Nations come into play here? -Was it just that they legitimized the colonial system and the other nations also colonized states in the region? - YES

Systemic Configuration 2: World War II/United Nations. Explain the impact of this systemic configuration on the Middle East.

-Holocaust intensified the Jewish search for a homeland and made other states more sympathetic. -Nevertheless, US and allies didn't stop it. -Refused Jewish refugees. -US/Roosevelt thought best help would be speedy victory in WWII. -UN action on November 30, 1947 - General Assembly endorsed partition resolution. -Palestine divided into a Jewish state, Arab State, and an international enclave around Jerusalem. -Basically, a paraphrased version of the Balfour Declaration. -Lord Balfour (British) -Said we need states for Arabs, Jews, & protection for Jerusalem. -US & USSR both supported resolution. -10 Arab & Muslim members of General Assembly all voted against it. -Arabs believed they were promised all of Palestine, Jews were just happy to have somewhere to go. -Great Britain voted against it because of Arab opposition. -Resolution precipitated civil war in Palestine. -Chaos between 11/30/47 and end of mandate on 5/15/48. -Israel declared statehood on 5/14/48 -Original borders of Israel (1948-67) called the "Green Line" -Did not include Gaza, West Bank, or Jerusalem

Major aspects of politics in: IRAN

-Long history, dates back 2500 years to Persian Empire -NOT an Arab state -77.1 million people; 636,000 sq. mi. -95% Shia, 4% Sunni; Farsi official language -Ayatollah Khomeini took over power from Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979. -Domestic politics characterized by seemingly unbridgeable gulf between conservatives and reformers. -Iran & six world powers reached agreement to limit the country's nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions in July 2015. -Now that Iran had first checkpoint after these negotiations, Rouhani is leading an initiative to build economic ties with the West and China, and move Iran back into normal diplomatic relations. -Trump lambasting Iran had made investors skittish, has hurt economy.

Major aspects of politics in: EGYPT

-Most populous Arab state; traditionally a bastion of Arab civilization; one of the poorest Arab states. -Leaders & the masses differ on secular vs. religious issues. -94% Muslim (mostly Sunni), 6% Coptic Christian; Arabic official language, English & French spoken by some in middle and upper classes. -President Hosni Mubarek stepped down in February 2011 amid uprising, handing down power to military. -Islamist Muslim Brotherhood won elections but was ousted by army a year later amid mass protests (see below: Egypt very against Muslim Brotherhood). -In 2014, Egypt began to assert itself against Islamist extremists at home and abroad. -President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in office since June 2014. -Education at US Army War College (2006) -Has been promising to hold elections -Regime has worked to create close relationships with Saudi Arabia: helps them financially and helps Saudi Arabia politically and militarily. -This allyship one of key elements in the GCC rift with Qatar - Egyptian anger at what they believe to be Qatar's support of Muslim Brotherhood.

What is Pan-Arabism? Briefly trace its history and impact upon the Middle East.

-Pan-Arabism: Arab unity and cooperation would lead to political gains. -Term originated in British Mandate period, but popularized by Nasser in 1958. -People's motivation was if they stuck together they would have more influence and more power. -Egypt and Syria united to form the United Arab Republic in 1958. -Separated 3 years later. -Nasser wanted Yemen to enter republic, but attempt failed in 1958. -Also wanted Iraq in 1960s; also failed. -Ba'ath movement and Gulf Cooperation Council have pan-Arab overtones. -Ba'ath rooted in pan-Arabism and socialism -Gulf Cooperation Council -Western alliance as second pillar -Arab identity is at the root of pan-Arabism.

What is Zionism? Who is Theodor Herzl and what is his role vis-a-vis Zionism? What key split in early Zionist movement is still reflected today in Israeli politics?

-Zionism: political movement for a Jewish homeland. -Religious Zionists: -Want Jewish state ruled by Jewish law. -Must be in Palestine. -Secular Zionists: -Want a Jewish state where Jews can live free of persecution. -Would be fine with it being in Argentina (just a place people thought might have room) Modern example of religious/secular divide: -Judaism & Israeli Politics Today -3 Types of Jews: Orthodox, Conservative (Masorti), and Reform Movements. -In Israel, majority of Jews are Orthodox or secular. -They do NOT get along, becoming a more and more extreme rift. -Debate over whether literal interpretation of Jewish texts should be part of governance. -Increased housing segregation and differential birth rates between "religious" (20% population) and secular (80% population) Jews. -Religious Jews have higher birth rates: 5.9-6.2 -Secular Jew birth rate: 1.68 -If you ask Jews what the problem in Israel is today: most people say Orthodox, not Muslims. -Religion most secular Jews choose not to practice is Orthodox Judaism. Theodor Herzl - 1860 -next flashcard

Major aspects of politics in: LIBYA

680,000 sq. mi.; 6.2 million people 97% Sunni Muslim $11,965 GDP per capita: large reserves of oil & gas. Arabic official language; Italian & English are widely spoken in major cities. Former Italian colony. Independent since 12/24/51. King Idris ruled until 9/1/69. -Revolutionary Council led by Col. Qaddafi took power. -Arab Unity, de Facto autocratic rule; oil wealth, poor relations with such neighbors as Chad characterized Qaddafi's rule. -Qaddafi often mobilized support by antagonizing West. -Qaddafi ruled for 42 years. -October 2011: main opposition group, the National Transitional Council (NTC) declared the country to be officially liberated and pledged to turn Libya into a pluralist, democratic state. -August 2012: The NTC handed over power to General National Congress. -Country has struggled to stabilize since Qaddafi's overthrow. -Elections in 2014 produced two rival governments. -UN is struggling to bring Islamist & Nationalist factions together amid fears that extreme Islamist groups are using Libya as a base. -Circumstances surrounding 9/2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, killing US ambassador John Christopher Stevens and three others later became a US election issue. *Republican party line: the democrats did not put enough security in. *Democrat party line: you cut funding. -In 2015, things looked particularly dire in Libya; some cities have fallen entirely under Jihadi control and most of the country's oil terminals had been taken offline. -Since mid-2016, there have been some positive developments too: ISIS is evicted, oil production is up. -But the political roadblocks remain: 1. A new war is beginnning in Libya's south. 2. The GNA is on the verge of collapse. 3. On January 2, 2017, its deputy prime minster, Musa al-Koni, resigned. 4. The Libyan National Army (which is aligned with the House of Representatives in Tobruk) bombed a place that was transporting senior officers from the home of militias that support the UN-backed government. -The US, UK, Italy, and France must decide whether to: 1. Continue to back one side (which is not winning) as they are now. 2. Further escalate militarily, with the risks involved. 3. Or push for decentralization based on parties (often military) that control sections of Libya and appear to have local support. ISIS becoming a factor again.

Major aspects of politics in: BAHRAIN

Arabic official language; Farsi, Urdu, and English widely spoken. Smallest Persian Gulf state. 1st Gulf state to export oil (1930s). Now relies a bit less on oil than other Gulf states: banking & service orientation. Higher proportion of native citizens to resident aliens than many Gulf countries. 1/3 of inhabitants are resident aliens; mostly non-Arab Asians from India, Iran, and Pakistan (Economic incentive, and Shi'ite) Only state where in the region besides Iran and Iraq where Shi'ites outnumber Sunnis. *Ruling King, al-Khalifa, is Sunni (they do not focus so much on differences). *One of the factors that contributes to conflict in the region is segmentation with Islam - Western Press overplays it. *Iran tried to incite revolution in 1980s. *The Khalifa family has ruled since 1783. *Bahrain is now a constitutional monarchy with an elected legislative assembly. *Majority Shia Muslims are demanding more power from Sunni-led government. *The government launched a crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011, but unrest continues to simmer. Population relatively sophisticated, noted for its intellectual tradition and articulate labor force. Bahrain is home to the US Navy's fifth fleet. Bahraini-Qatari ties have been strained though they settled a territorial dispute in 2001.

Systemic Configuration 5: Growth of Islamist & Sectarian Influences at Expense of Traditional National and World Powers. Explain the impact of this systemic configuration on the Middle East.

Consequences of the Growth of Islamist & Sectarian Influences at the Expense of Traditional National & World Powers: 1. Virtually all the traditional means of statecraft become difficult, if not irrelevant. 2. First-strike Capability - the ability to launch a nuclear strike and render an enemy unable to launch a counter-strike of their own. -Second-strike Capability - the ability to withstand an enemy's nuclear strike, and respond in kind with an attack of your own & deal unacceptable damage. -Mutually Assured Destruction - the nuclear players all want Second-strike Capability 3. How do you create sanctions against non-state? -Retaliation/military attack against a territory assumes sovereignty. If not, the "wrong" people get hurt and killed.

Major aspects of politics in: KUWAIT

Neighbors: Iraq & Saudi Arabia 6880 sq. mi.; 3.37 million people; $52,197 GDP per capita 85% Muslim; 15% Christian, Hindu, Parsi, and other Arabic official language, English widely spoken Indigenous Kuwaitis are primarily descendants of Arabian tribes. Ruling al-Sabah dynasty dates from 1756: since 1961 independence, heredity constitutional monarchy ruled by Emir. Expelled many non-Kuwait residents after First Gulf War. Oil wealth had already transformed Kuwait by the 1960s, "Cradle to grave" welfare state - not to immigrants. 1991 invasion by Iraq changed Kuwait, closer to the US. Economy more troubled, but have largely recovered. Less democratic: *Kuwait played host to a massive military presence as thousands of soldiers massed on Iraqi border for the US-led campaign in 2003 to disarm and oust the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. *Kuwait was the first Arab country in the Gulf to have an elected Parliament. Moves to change the male-dominated political structure culminated in the granting of full political rights to women in 2005. After years of clashes between the elected Parliament and the ruling family, the opposition boycotted elections in 2012; the country has faced violence from militant Islamists.

Major aspects of politics in: LEBANON

Neighbors: Israel & Syria 4.467 million people; $9928 GDP per capita 70% Muslim, 30% Christian Arabic official language, French & English common Historically a haven for religious, ethnic, & political minorities Current boundaries created in 1920 by France -Point of contention with Syria because they believe Lebanon got the best parts of the original French mandate territory Independent since 1941 -National Covenant of 1943 (based on 1932 census) gave Maronite Christians (30%) the presidency and Sunni Muslims (20%) the Prime Ministership. Stayed that way until the 1980s. -No census for ~40 years. -Reputation for beautiful land, tolerant people, and weak governments. April 1975: Civil war breaks out between militias of the dominant Maronite leaders and of the Lebanese National Movement Israel invasions in 1978, and 1982 Multi-national peacekeeping force (excluding US) 1982-84 1989 Ta'if agreement changed composition ratio to 1:1 1992 elections: charges they were "rigged" by Syrians. In early 2000s, Syria controlled northern 2/3 including government, Israel controlled southern 1/3 through Southern Lebanese Army. Before Syrian civil war, economic recovery and tourism seemed to be on the way. Two primary political parties were: -March 14th: Pro-Western Sunni-based alliance named after mass demonstrations that followed the killing of ex-premier Rafik Hariri. -Hezbollah: Pro-Syrian Shia military-political movement. Fought Israel in 2006 war. Leads alliance of Shia Amal militia & Christian free patriotic movement. Syrian refugees now make up approximately 1/3 of the population, placing a severe strain on the country's resources. In March 2014, the Lebanese foreign minister warned that the refugee crisis was threatening the country's very existence. 2016/17: Garbage crisis emphasizes the inability of any government or group to govern and control Lebanon.

Systemic Configuration 4: End of Cold War/Advent of Gulf War. Explain the impact of this systemic configuration on the Middle East.

THE END OF THE COLD WAR: (1). Arab states and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) left without automatic benefactor (the USSR) (2). Many of these states, notably Egypt, tried to offset the end of the Soviet Union by turning to the US. -Sadat came to Israel & said they wanted to make peace, so that Egypt could align with the West --> however, they did this before the end of the USSR, showing they had insider information that the USSR might collapse. -His goals: regain the Sinai Peninsula and receive aid from the US to bolster his position domestically. (3). Even when the Muslim Brotherhood (Mohamed Morsi) was in charge in Egypt, the relationship with the US was strong. -Ever since the agreement with Sadat, the US has followed through with aid, and Egypt is the recipient of the second highest amount of aid from the US (behind Israel). -Egypt's economy is based on tourism, specifically tourism from the West, so Morsi does not change the relationship with the US and Israel so as to maintain tourism as a source of income for their hard currency. THE GULF WAR: (1). The end of the Cold War combined with the hard alliance choice of the Gulf War left the Palestinian authority in a very difficult situation. -Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the US and Saudi Arabia come to the aid of Kuwait. -Hussein was very popular in the Middle East, but the US gave Palestine a lot of money, so the Palestinian authority was unsure if they should side with Iraq (go along with the popular Arab opinion of supporting him) or the US (benefactor of large amounts of aid) --> they chose to align with Hussein, choosing political influence over economic aid. (2). Seeds of Arab Spring and increased influence of sectarian, non-state actors sown. -First began in Tunisia, which is one of the only countries to not have reversed course in years following the Arab Spring. -Resulted in non-state actors gaining control. (3). US unpopular in a number of parts of the Middle East. -A lot of the Us's actions were seen to people around the world, specifically the Middle East, as being anti-Arab and anti-Muslim. -The US becomes a big player in Middle Eastern politics, but is an unpopular one.

Major aspects of politics in: IRAQ

Why did we invade Iraq? -We assumed he had WMDs because we play world police force 4/2005: Amid escalating violence, parliament selects Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani as President. Ibrahim Jaafari, a Shia, is named Prime Minister. 12/2006: Saddam Hussein is executed for crimes against humanity. 1/2007: President Bush announces a New Iraq strategy; thousands more US troops will be dispatched to shore up security in Baghdad. 9/2014: Shia politician Haider Al-Abad forms a broad-based government including Sunnis and Kurds. -US announces new forward strategy against ISIS, carries out air raids in support of army near Baghdad. 4/2015: Iraqi government takes back Tikrit 5/2015: ISIS takes Ramadi 2016: Iraq takes back Ramadi 2017: Iraqi & coalition forces recapture Mosul from ISIS -Kurdish independence vote leads to tension with Iraqi government