PRISONERS DILEMNA
Another Way Out of the Dilemma?Value Creators vs. Value Claimers
"Value creators" focus on pursuing joint gains through creative problem solving—by openly sharing information, brainstorming, and identifying opportunities for tradeoffs. "Value claimers" see negotiation as a competitive exercise in which the ultimate goal is to get a better deal than one's opponent. "Value claimers" such as Trump focus on beating the other party by aiming high, making minimal (if any) concessions, guarding information, and at times threatening, ridiculing, or intimidating their adversaries to get their way. Who's right, the creators or the claimers?
NASH EQUILIBRIUM
- "A combination of strategies, one for each player, such that neither player can do better by picking a different strategy, given that the other player adheres to their own strategy."
Benefits of Multiple Equivalent Simultaneous Offers (MESO)
Multiple equivalent simultaneous offers lessen the negotiator's dilemma for offer recipients by allowing them to believe they are claiming value for themselves while simultaneously accommodating their counterpart's interests.
The Game of Chicken
The game of Chicken is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. •The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the opponent, the outcome where neither player yields is the worst possible one for both players. •The game is similar to the prisoner's dilemma in that an "agreeable" mutual solution is unstable since both players are individually tempted to stray from it.
Prisoner's Dilemma
Tom confesses and Harry does not confess: Tom will go free and Harry will be sentenced to 10 years in prison. Harry confesses and Tom does not confess: Harry will go free and Tom will be sentenced to 10 years in prison. Tom and Harry both confess: Each will get a reduced sentence of 5 years in prison. Neither Tom nor Harry confess: Each will get a sentence of 1 year
Mexican Standoff
•A Mexican Standoff is a three person gun duel. •According to standard game theory, the first person to shoot is most likely to lose. •The person they shoot at is also likely to lose. •The third person has the best chance of winning.
The Game of Chicken & The Prisoner's Dilemma
•Chicken is a symmetrical 2x2 game (remember the four quartile matrix) with conflicting interests, the preferred outcome is to play Straight while the opponent plays Swerve. •Similarly, the prisoner's dilemma is a symmetrical 2x2 game with conflicting interests: the preferred outcome is to Defect while the opponent plays Cooperate. •The prisoner's dilemma is about the impossibility of cooperation •The game of chicken is about the inevitability of conflict.
LESSON OF PRISONER'S DILEMMA
•Despite the existence of a mutually preferable outcome (each gets one year), the rational calculations of both prisoners in favor of their own self-interest dictate that in avoiding the worst-case outcome (10 years in prison), they are both worse-off (5 years in prison).
The Truel
•In a duel, it's an advantage to shoot first. However if three opponents duel (truel), it's a disadvantage to shoot first. •If A shoots B, C will shoot A.
Superrationality (Magical Thinking?)
•Superrationality is a decision making technique that solves complex dilemmas such as the Mexican Standoff and Prisoner's Dilemma. •It's considered an alternative to game theory. •Superrationality assumes that players can get beyond their self interests to seek an optimal solution for everyone. •If all the players of the Mexican standoff are superrational, they will walk away from the standoff because they realize the game is to no one's advantage. They can see beyond the game. •Logically, the Mexican standoff should end peacefully because nobody has incentive to shoot first. •If the players are superrational that's exactly what should happen.
Prisoners' Dilemma
•The Prisoner's Dilemma was one of the earliest "games" developed in game theory. •By simulating the Prisoner's Dilemma we are given an excellent method of studying the issues of conflict vs. cooperation between individuals.
Prisoner's Dilemma
•The district attorney does not have enough evidence to convict either man of the armed robbery - UNLESS ONE OF THEM CONFESSES. •If neither one confesses, the most the district attorney can do is to sentence each one to 1 year in jail for illegal possession of firearms. •The men are separated. Each is offered the following deal:
The Game of Chicken
•The game of chicken is a situation in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash .•But if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a "chicken," meaning a coward. •This yields a situation where each player, in attempting to secure his best outcome, risks the worse. •A similar version, under the name of "chickie run", is a central plot element in the movie Rebel Without a Cause(1955) where James Dean and Corey Allen race their cars towards a cliff instead of each other.
Spirals of Insecurity
•Thus, the Prisoner's Dilemma starkly illustrates how spirals of insecurity can develop in negotiations. •It shows how parties can be trapped in dilemmas - not because of stupid or irrational calculations - but because of thinking patterns or 'decision rules' where each group seeks to avoid the worst-case scenario at all costs... •and where each player is unwilling to risk the costs of cooperating if the other player also does not cooperate.
Multiple Equivalent Simultaneous Offers (MESO)
•To minimize this aspect of the negotiator's dilemma, rather than just making one offer, we should give our counterparts a choice between two or three package offers that we value equally. •This approach has been called "Multiple Equivalent Simultaneous Offers" or MESO for short.