SRA 231 Exam 1

Maximax

"Maximizing the maximums"

Maximin

"Maximizing the minimums"

"Position of Argument"

"What" you are trying to establish must be supported by evidence

BLUF Form example

(ISSUE) PSU FANZ has designated the Buckeye militia as an "team of interest." (EFFECTS) The Buckeyes have been placed on the College Rivalry Watch List (CRWL). (SO-WHAT) Keeping tabs on this group will prevent surprise, once the Big Ten season begins.

Prima Facie Evidence

- "on its first appearance" - "presumptive evidence"

Richards Heuer

- 45 year CIA vet - Developed ACH - process to examine Soviet deception - combat bias

Lines of Inquiry (establishing argument)

- Corroboration: testimony or other evidence - Motive: speaks to the event, not the evidence - Opportunity: speaks to the event, and maybe the evidence - Means: speaks to the event, and maybe the evidence

Bloom's Taxonomy

- Evaluation - Synthesis - Analysis - Application -Comprehension - Knowledge

Elements of the BLUF

- Issue - the key item of analysis - Effects - the effects - So-What - why the reader is concerned

General Theories

- Normative - Descriptive - Prescriptive

A few guidelines for Evidence

- Treat Testimonial Evidence as a "citation" - Items of Evidence that are mentioned in testimony are then citations of evidence - Items of Evidence may have more than one Type designation and should be characterized for all attributes that apply

Normative decision measures

- Utility - Expected value

Physical Evidence

- evidence that is in the form of a tangible object, such as a firearm, fingerprints, rope purportedly used to strangle someone - "real" or "material"

Why & When to use ACH

- high risk - question assumptions - prevent being surprised - maintain a record

The Inference Chain steps

- likely problem - KAQ - Evidence - Inferences - Possible Assumptions

States of Nature

- refer to future events, not under the control of the decision maker, and will ultimately affect decision results - independent of your decision

What is ACH?

- who-what-why-how - how to think about a complex problems - alternative explanations

Decision Types

-Decisions whether -Contingent decisions -Decisions which

Decision table parts

-Problem statement - States of Nature - Alternatives - Outcomes

Problems w/Heuristics

-approximate the results of more complex optimizing models, but are easier to use - can have a negative side - errors will be biased in ways that may be harmful to those affected by decision making

Circumstantial Evidence

-indirect evidence -requires an inference in order to prove that fact -cannot be circumstantial on it's own merits

Five Points for Critical Reading

1. Determine the central claims or purpose of the text 2. consider the text (audience) 3. kinds of reasoning (deductive, inductive) 4. Examine the evidence (supporting facts) 5. Evaluate by making decisions (strengths, weaknesses)

Analytic Workflow

1. Information gathering 2. sense-making 3. communication

Principles of Expected Utility Theory

1. Ordering of alternatives - In a non-weighted list 2. Dominance - Options should be considered on their own merit 3. Cancellation - When choosing between two options of equal return (utility) 4. Transitivity - property of both equality and inequality 5. The Invariance Principle - The "display appeal" of one object over another should not affect the choice-routine

The Inference Chain

1. Problem Statement 2. Key analytic question 3. Evaluate items of evidence 4. construct inferences 5. form analytic judgments

Principles of Analysis

1. To solve the problem, you must first identify it. 2. Keep it simple 3. What I want to believe is not always the truth. 4. Determine the nature of your information. 5. Say what you mean, mean what you say. 6. Use standard terms and know their meaning 7. Consider Alternatives. 8. Is deception a possibility?

How ACH is different

1. analyze full set of alternatives 2. look at each item of evidence 3. trying to eliminate hypotheses

Rules for Effective Analytic Writing

1.Put your main point up front (BLUF) 2.Write short paragraphs 3.Use Active Voice 4.Use short, conventional words 5.Write short sentences 6.Be correct, credible and complete

Finding

A finding is a statement containing an authoritative decision or conclusion reached after examination or investigation.

What is Critical Thinking?

A process by which we use our knowledge and intelligence to effectively arrive at the most reasonable and justifiable positions on issues, and which endeavors to identify and overcome the numerous hindrances to rational thinking.

Deduction

An inference drawn from a hypothesis first approach. A form of logical reasoning.

Demonstrative Evidence

An object or document is considered to be demonstrative evidence when it directly demonstrates a fact. It's a common and reliable kind of evidence

Descriptive Decision Theory

Assumes humans are notcompletely rational and that assumptions of normative models are routinely violated - we see this in the use of heuristics

Normative Decision

Assumes individuals act rationally in trying to find the best solution to optimize outcome.

Involuntary closure

Closure has been imposed by others or impersonal circumstances

Decision Constraints

Decision are often constrained by time and effort

Decision Stream

Decisions are not made as isolated events but a blending of processes, whereby we recognize a problem, gather info, explore alternatives & make a choice

Academic writing

Deductive •Tends to write/read long •Linear progression to conclusion •Complex language •Directed at the evaluator •Author has vested interest •Purpose to demonstrate knowledge

Induction

Describes an inference type that goes from a particular case (evidence) to general case (hypothesis).

Digital Evidence

Digital evidence can be any sort of digital file from an electronic source. Includes email, text messages, instant messages, files and documents extracted from hard drives, electronic financial transactions, audio files, video files. Digital evidence can be found on any server or device that stores data.

Expected Utility Theory

Effort to explain gambling behaviors.. did not address the ethics or morality of gambling itself.

Forensic Evidence

Forensic Evidence is scientific evidence, such as DNA, trace evidence, fingerprints or ballistics reports. considered to be strong and reliable evidence

Expected Value (EV)

In mathematics: a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.

Presumption

In the law of evidence, a declaration of a particular fact can be made without the aid of proof; two forms are prevalent: presumptions with basic facts; and presumptions without basic facts.

Analytic writing

Inductive •Concise, with bottom line up front •Evidence to assessment •Simple language •Directed at the busy customer •No vested interest •Purpose to provide insight to decision-making

Satisficing

Making a decision that is "just good enough" without taking extra time and effort to better examine the problem

Documentary Evidence

Most commonly considered to be written forms of proof, such as letters or wills, documentary evidence can also include other types of media, such as images, video or audio recordings, etc

Testimonial Evidence

One of the most common forms of evidence, this is either spoken or written evidence given by a witness under oath. It can be gathered in court, at a deposition or through an affidavit.

Prediction

Prediction is an inference about something that may happen.

Pro-Cons of ACH

Pros: •Auditable process - you can retrace your analytic process •Aid to overcoming cognitive biases Cons: •Time consuming •Matrix can be cumbersome •Deception may not be revealed •The evaluation of evidence & source may prove difficult

Becoming a critical thinker

Step 1: Adopt the Attitude Step 2: Avoid Hindrances Step 3: Characterize Arguments (judgments) Step 4: Evaluate Info Sources (Reliability Check) Step 5: Evaluate Arguments (judgments)

Decision Theory according to Hansson

Study of "Goal-Directed Behavior" in the presence of options:

Problems with Estimative Language

Such statements are not facts facts, proof, or knowledge. These assessments and judgments generally are based on collected information, which is often incomplete or fragmentary.

Assessment

The assessment is the process of combining all intelligence data into a unified, specific judgment; may be represented as an estimate, prediction, course of action (COA), or key judgment.

Voluntary closure

The decision-maker places a restriction on options under consideration

Direct Evidence

The most powerful type of evidence, direct evidence requires no inference. The evidence alone is the proof. This could be the testimony of a witness who saw a crime first-hand.

Outcome or Payoff

The result of combining a decision alternative with a state of nature produces an outcome or payoff.

Prescriptive Theory

The theory of the "practitioner" •Structure & order (normative) •Cognitive & behavioral element (descriptive)

Framing Effects

The way a problem is phrased affects the decision

Character Evidence

This is a testimony or document that is used to help prove that someone acted in a particular way based on the person's character

Estimation

This is an inference that makes a quantitative proposition about an issue, based on knowledge about how a system operates. The estimate will usually include a statement of probability.

Exculpatory Evidence

This type of evidence can exonerate a defendant. Usually for criminal cases. Prosecutors and police are required to disclose to the defendant any exculpatory evidence they find or risk having the case dismissed

Our EU calculation becomes:

U(A) = (.6) -20 + (.4) +25 = - 12.0 + 10.0 = - 2.0 U(B) = (.6) -15 + (.4) +15 = - 9.0 + 6.0 = - 3.0

The equation for Expected Utility is:

U(A) = p1U(A)1 + p2U(A)2 U(B) = p1U(B)1 + p2U(B)2 Where p1 + p2 + p3 = 1

Hansson on expected utility

Utility theory = Rational behavior

Heuristics

are central to the decision process - A way in which people reduce problems into manageable pieces

Decision Theory & decision-making

are not the same

Theoretical distinctions are

conceptual

Naturalist Decision Making

concerning the way people use their experience to make decisions in field settings

Descriptive theory

deals with the way decisions are actually made... "what we are observed to do."

Representativeness heuristic

decision based on how closely info represents typical outcome

Availability heuristic

decision-maker make judgments based on how easily information is retrieved

Decisions Whether

decisions that need to be made BEFOREwe proceed with the selection of an alternative

Decision Which

decisions whether and contingent decisions we can move on to "decisions which"

Rules of Evidence

govern the types of evidence that are admissible in a legal proceeding. Types of legal evidence include testimony, documentary evidence, and physical evidence.

Overconfidence

individual's belief that they are correct more often than they actually are

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

is a process whereby multiple hypotheses are posed as alternatives to explain a given phenomenon. ACH evaluates each hypothesis independently against the evidence.

Limited Choice heuristic

limited number of hypotheses generated - decision-maker may consider only a small subset of possibilities

Causal Inferences

look for the cause of something - how evidence interacts to have an impact on: events, people, and other items of evidence

Hearsay Evidence

testimony from a witness under oath

Contingent Decisions

those waiting another decision or circumstance

Predictive Inferences

try to explain the possible effects of something - how evidence may influence the future

Descriptive

what people actually do, or have done.

Prescriptive

what people should and can do.

Normative

what people should do

Lines of inquiry depend on

your "position of argument"

Probabilistic Knowledge

•Certainty-deterministic knowledge •Uncertainty-partial probabilistic knowledge •Risk-complete probabilistic knowledge •Ignorance-no probabilistic knowledge

Types of Evidence

•Circumstantial •Character •Demonstrative •Digital •Direct •Documentary •Exculpatory •Hearsay •Physical •Prima facie •Scientific •Testimonial

Decision Environments

•Decision-making under Certainty (C) •Decision-making under Uncertainty (UC) •Decision-making under Risk (R) •Decision-making under Ignorance (I)

ACH is based on

•Developing a full set of possible explanations •Applying ALL pro/con data against ALL hypotheses •Disproving possibilities - not proving them

Difference between EU & EV

•Expected utility is the expected return of the utility function. •Where utility is just some abstract measure of how useful something is, or how much happiness it provides. •Utility might be both Monetary value & Satisfaction.

convergent thinking tasks:

•Gathering data •Identifying patterns •Connecting dots

Decision theory questions

•How do I make decisions? •Why do I make decisions? •What inhibits my decision-making

Real-world decision making tasks typically include:

•Ill-structured problems •Uncertain, dynamic environments •Information-rich environments where situational cues change rapidly •Cognitive processing that proceeds in iterative action/feedback loops •Multiple shifting and/or competing individual and organizational goals •Time constraints or stress •High risk/Low reward •Multiple persons involved in decision

Decision Characteristics

•Information - knowledge •Alternatives - range of possible choices •Goals - what to accomplish •Criteria - requirements for alternatives •Value - desirability of an outcome •Preferences - philosophy of Decision-maker •Decision Quality - rating of decision •Acceptance - who is affected

Descriptive Models

•Interpret things as they are, or as they are believed to be •Extremely useful in Decision Support Systems for modeling/evaluating the consequences of decisions and scenarios (Risk Analysis)•No guarantee a given solution is optimal •Often a solution will be good enough (satisficed) but may not be optimized •May have little relationship to the original set of criteria (Red Mustang convertible vs. white Prius)

Types of Alternatives

•Open •We say a set of options is open if new alternatives can be added or invented... •Closed •We say a set of options is closed if no new alternatives can be added

Divergent thinking tasks include:

•Outside the box thinking, Devil's Advocacy, Red Cell Analytics •Other divergent thinking tasks include: ACH, Challenging Assumptions & Key Assumption Checks & Inferencing

Problems w/Normative Theory

•Rationality is not defined except in a very narrow way •Norms are external(except for rationality norms) to the problem •Deals with behaviors in an idealized environment •Issues of uncertainty and informational shortfalls are not addressed •Decision conditions are rarely ideal (with all factors known, all options available)

Critical Thinking is NOT:

•Thinking negatively •Group think •A threat to individuality •A belief •A replacement for emotion •Blind support •Always the most persuasive