Black Swans and Unpredictability

Precautions

acceptance of calcuability/unpredictability, but embracing action in relation to the unknown.

Resilience

accepts uncertainty and embraces protective action in relation to the exposed entity. Mapping vulnerabilites to identify areas of low resilience. Focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity. Often applied in relation to an entity or system´s ability to return to normal functioning quickly following a disturbance. Embracing change through adaptation and learing to ensure the system´s functions persist.

The Network Approach

accepts uncertainty and sees it as both shortage of knowledge and different knowledge regimes. Recognizes the "network" society as a starting point for risk management. Increased fragmentation and increased dependencies.

Black swan

an incident of extreme consequence, unexpected or considered highly improbable. An outlier event. Low predictability/unexpected. But with high impact, catastrophic consequences. Seems difficult to predict. A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Scenario planning

each individual scenario has an infinitesimal probability of actual occurrence but the range of a set of individual scenarios can be constructed in such a way as to bound the uncertaintites that are seen to be inherent in the future. Essentially, scenarios highlight the causal reasoning underlying judgments about the future and give explicit attenton to sources of uncertainty without trying to turn an uncertainty to probability.

Statistical forecasting

implies the use of statistics based on historical data to project what could happen out in the future. Efficient data handling [however require a certain amount of data]. Removes cognitive biases, however it cannot recognize whether the forecasting problem was inappropriately framed. Causaility can also be problematic.

Delphi method

inviting multiple experts to individually make a judgment and then come together on a panel. [However] Focus on the Depli procedure is on the prediction of single target variables such as the date of occurrence of a future event or a point estimate of an uncertain future quantity [20-25 year horizon]. Much dependence on the degree of communication of the reasoning processes underpinning a particular panellist´s prediction.

Network theory

provides theoretical concepts and normative starting points for analyzing and assessing complexe processes of problem solving in network-settings and the role that perceptions, interactions, and institutions play in that.

Expert judgement

refers to making a judgment based on skill, expertise, or specialized knowledge in a particular area. Used when there isn´t enough data for statistics. Expert performance is largely a function of interaction b/w dimensions of ecological vaildity and learnability [both needed for adequate performance].

Ekstremistan

the cumulative maginitude of an outlier is on an entirely different scale than it is in the country of Mediocristan. Inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate, or the total.

Mediocristan

when sample is so large, no single instance will change the total. Thin-taield and affects the individual without correlation to the collective.