Political Science Final

Federal Election Campaign Act

A law passed in 1974 for reforming campaign finances. The act created the Federal Election Commission (FEC), provided public financing for presidential primaries and general elections, limited presidential campaign spending, required disclosure, and attempted to limit contributions.

invisible primary

After a candidate decides to run for president, he or she enters what is called the ................................................... No votes are cast, but candidates are jockeying for position so they can be ready to do well in the initial primaries and caucuses. Usually, candidates must line up party support, financial backing, and credibility with journalists in the news media. Candidates who can get attention from the news media can raise more money and secure more endorsements from party leaders. Over the last fifty years, the invisible primary has been very much an insider's game, but that was not the case for Donald Trump. He stormed the Republican Party from the outside, with few endorsements (at first), limited fundraising, and doubts from journalists about the viability of his campaign. Yet he took his case to the broader public and hit a chord with many voters that sparked his campaign during the invisible primary. By contrast, Hillary Clinton in 2016 was very traditional in her approach to the nomination. She raised money, collected numerous endorsements, and built an organization designed to turn out the vote. What is not clear is whether Trump's unique approach can be duplicated in future campaigns.

Midterm elections

Although candidates do not have to declare their intention to run for Congress until about a year before the election, both incumbents—those already holding the office—and challengers generally begin campaigning nearly two years before Election Day. For House members, that means the campaign never stops—yet another manifestation of the permanent campaign. The contests that occur in between the four-year presidential election cycles are called ......................................

Swing Voter; Swing State; Swing Voter

Although partisanship remains high, .............................. still exist—people who do not fall into either the Republican or Democratic camp—and so do ............................. that might vote either Democratic or Republican in a presidential election. Parties and candidates avidly pursue swing voters during an election, as they can swing the results one way or the other. In the past, ............................................... have constituted about 20 percent of the electorate, but that share has been falling. Two weeks before the November 2020 election, less than 3 percent of likely voters in the electorate was undecided between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Partisanship remains an anchor driving the preferences of most Americans, leaving only a handful of "persuadable" or swing voters.

Gerrymandering

Any change to the size and shape of a district can have political implications because shifts in its partisan makeup alter which party might be able to capture the seat. For these reasons, there are major battles over the composition of districts. The politicization of drawing districts is called........................................ Chapter 12 provides more details about this process and explains how different compositions of districts can alter the kind of gateway congressional elections offer.

traditional polling techniques

As a campaign strategy, microtargeting has begun to replace ................................................and precinct-by-precinct get-out-the-vote drives (see Chapter 6, Public Opinion). By combining information from polling surveys with political participation and consumer information obtained from data-gathering companies such as Acxiom and InfoUSA, political parties and campaigns can establish profiles of the many different types of voters and the issues they support. The resulting database can then be "mapped" to get a geographic depiction of the trends in voting habits and political interests of different voters. Each party builds its own database that it can share with candidates: The Democratic National Committee's database is called VoteBuilder, and the Republican National Committee's database is called GOP Data Center.

presidential coattails

As a result, voting is driven largely by two major forces: partisanship and incumbency. Voters follow party identification and vote for their party's candidates. And, as we have seen, voters also tend to vote for incumbents. There is also the effect of ...................................................—that is, a popular president running for reelection brings additional party candidates into office. Voters going to the polls in high-stimulus elections to vote for president cast ballots for other members of the party for lower-level offices. While scholars debate this effect, it is clear that the partisan makeup of Congress reflects the popularity of the president or presidential candidate. In 2016, Donald Trump was able to keep the Republicans in control of both houses of Congress despite a good deal of speculation that the Democrats would capture the Senate. However, in 2018, the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives, which was viewed as a repudiation of Trump's actions as president. Of course, the Republicans did hold the Senate in 2018, but that reflected the fact Democrats were defending more seats than Republicans were, and some of them were in red states that were very favorable to the GOP. In 2020, Republicans were defending twenty-three seats to twelve for Democrats, but again, most of the GOP seats were in states won handily by Trump in 2016.

monarch; to campaign on their behalf

As in so many matters of custom and protocol, George Washington shaped the way future presidential aspirants would campaign for president. Like others at the Constitutional Convention, he worried that a chief executive could morph into a .............................., so he deliberately avoided doing anything to advance his candidacy. He took these steps even though he and all the Framers knew that they created the office of president with him in mind. Washington stayed at Mount Vernon, his estate on the Potomac River, and let others work on his behalf. The electors met on February 4, 1789, Washington's conduct continued to influence presidential campaigns until the start of the twentieth century. Candidates allowed their political parties ....................................... but avoided looking too ambitious. In 1896, William McKinley (1897-1901) stayed home in Canton, Ohio, speaking to well-wishers from his front porch. This so-called front porch campaign proved successful, but only because his campaign manager, Mark Hanna, and the Republican Party were raising funds and securing votes behind the scenes.

Wedge issue; Wedge issue

Because campaigns are competitive struggles for votes, candidates look for ways to secure extra votes while maintaining existing support. This dynamic is especially true for candidates who trail because they need to find some way to break up the support for the candidate in the lead. One strategy is to use a .................................... that has the potential to break up the opposition's coalition. Wedges usually involve controversial policy concerns, such as affirmative action, that divide people rather than build consensus. In recent years, the Democrats also sought to use various gender issues as wedges against the Republicans, including debates over contraception and equal pay. Race, too, has served as common ...................................... In the initial phases of the Democratic battle for the 2020 presidential nomination, candidates spoke about such things as health care, jobs, gun control, and climate change. In addition, electability was a central theme, since the desire to beat Trump was so strong. With the COVID-19 crisis, the game changed in many ways and the stakes became even higher. Joe Biden's message of caring and unity struck a chord and gave him a platform to fend off Bernie Sander's so-called revolution. Biden was able to shift the focus to uniting a deeply divided country that was in pain from COVID-19, racial injustice, a struggling economy, and intense polarization. This message beat President Trump's message that everything was great while he was in the Oval Office.

Negativity spot

Candidates are very good at telling voters why they should vote for them. They are also pretty good at telling the public why they should not vote for their opponents. Candidates' use of claims against the opposition is labeled negativity.

January ; June

Caucuses and primaries take place over six months, from .......................... through ............................of the election year. The first states to hold these events wield a good deal of influence, since the early contests provide momentum for those who do well and force those who do poorly to drop out. After the 2020 New Hampshire primary, for example, Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) ended his bid for the presidency. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) quit following a disappointing showing in Iowa in 2016. Iowa and New Hampshire are critical states in the process, since the former is the first state to hold a caucus and the latter holds the first primary (for more on this process, see Chapter 9). However, Iowa could be at risk of losing its position as first in the nation to vote for president after a tumultuous 2020 Iowa caucus night. With the most crowded Democratic primary field in history, the results of the Iowa Caucus were supposed to shed some light on who might be the nominee; however, there were massive flaws in the reporting system and it took over twenty-four hours to release results. Instead of making things more clear, the meltdown caused confusion and frustration for both campaigns and Democrats across the country. There is a chance that in 2024, Iowa will play a very different role in the selection of presidential nominees.

permanent campaign

Charge that presidents and members of Congress focus more on winning the next election than on governing.

90 %

Citizens in these close states got lots of attention. Nearly ................................percent of campaign visits by presidential candidates are to battleground close states. TV viewers are deluged with campaign ads, and party-based get-out-the-vote organizations are active in even the smallest towns. This flurry of activity filters down to the public. Citizens in these close states are well informed and increasingly interested in the campaign. But the strategy of pursuing votes in swing close states yields an important inequality, for citizens in close states other than swing close states do not get such attention, and interest in the campaign lags, especially among the poor. In 2016, eleven close states were considered to be battleground close states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Only 28 percent of the nation's population resides in these close states. Going into the 2020 election, the battleground states were Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all flipped and went for Biden, which secured him the necessary 270 electoral votes to win. Following Election Day, many mail-in ballots had to be counted, which took some states multiple days. By the Sunday following Election Day, Biden was ahead in Arizona and Georgia. Those long time "red" states flipped as well, giving Biden a comfortable lead in the Electoral College. It is a problem that voters in different close states are treated differently by the campaigns. Theoretically, all voters should receive equal treatment, yet about one in five Americans is the focus of attention of presidential candidates.

term limits

Concerns about incumbency advantage have led some observers to fear a lack of accountability and to call for ....................................., which would force members to retire after serving a maximum number of terms. Presidents, for example, can serve only two terms, and most governors are similarly constrained. But chief executives have more concentrated power than do legislators, so ensuring turnover in the executive branch does keep gateways to responsive government open. That said, ...............................................would keep senators and representatives from holding seats for decades, which would allow for more people to hold office. Some legislators elected in the 1970s are still in office in 2020. This is true for both parties; for example, Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) has held the position for forty-five years and Representative Don Young (R-AK) has been his district's representative in the House for forty-six years. Turnover is important, but building experience also matters and legislators like Young and Leahy are highly skilled.

midterm election

Congressional elections held between the presidential elections.

wedge issues

Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents.

strategic politician hypothesis

Economic conditions and presidential popularity indirectly influence voters in another way. Because politicians are ambitious and want to run for office when the prospects for success are high, they survey conditions when deciding whether to run. In December 2001, with President George W. Bush's sky-high popularity, conditions looked good for Republicans in the 2002 midterm elections, and many high-quality Republican candidates decided to run. In contrast, during 2017 and 2018, many Republicans decided not to run in 2018 for fear of a tidal wave against President Trump. The aggregate effect of these decisions produces an outcome for congressional elections that correlates with economic conditions and presidential popularity. Political scientists call this influence the ...........................................................

presidential coattails

Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his or her party.

strategic politician hypothesis

Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress.

Faithless Elector

Elector who does not vote for the candidate they promised to vote for. These have never determined outcome of presidential election but is a major problem with electoral college system

2014

Federal campaign finance laws set the same limits on congressional elections as on presidential elections: An individual could contribute up to $2,700 to a candidate for the primary election in 2018, and the same amount for the general election for as many campaigns as he or she wishes. Candidates also raise money from PACs, which are limited to donating $5,000 for a primary election, and $5,000 for a general election, to a single candidate. These limits did not keep the 2018 midterm elections from being the most costly in history, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Democrats spent over $2.9 billion and Republicans approximately $2.4 billion. In Texas alone, the Senate race spent an unprecedented $125 million. The $5.7 billion spent in 2018 far outpaced the .............................. midterm election spending record of $3.8 billion.

moderate voters

Following the primaries, the two winning candidates often revise their campaign messages to attract more ............................................................ Anthony Downs explained this shift in message with the median voter theorem, which argues that candidates in their quest for votes should adopt moderate positions on issues. If one candidate fails to do so, the other candidate can move to the center, winning a majority of votes and the election. To win the general election, candidates usually need votes from party members as well as from Independents and members of the opposing party. It is for these reasons that elections are often battles over the so-called middle.

unclear who the nominee would be

Following the primary season, each party meets in a national convention. Before the 1960s, conventions were often exciting because it was............................................................................ Conventions often started with numerous contenders, which meant no candidate had enough delegates to win the nomination on the first round of voting at the convention. In 1924, for example, it took the Democrats 124 ballots to select their nominee (John W. Davis from West Virginia). Over the last six decades, however, the likely nominee was known except for a handful of cases. In 1976, there was a big battle between then Governor Ronald Reagan and President Gerald Ford. Ford ended up prevailing in a very close contest. During the early part of 2016, there was much speculation about a so-called open convention for Republicans. Trump did manage to secure enough delegates to win the nomination, but that was not clear until early May. The same dynamic unfolded on the Democratic side in January and February of 2020, but Biden defied the expectations of many pundits and effectively sealed the nomination by March 2020.

Popular; unpopular (Presidential Popularity as a prediction determinant)

How .............................. is the sitting president? An ........................................president will hurt the chances for his party's candidate.

They are elected by the people

How are House members are elected??

They viewed the Electoral College as a competition between individuals not political parties

How did the framers view the Electoral College?

By population

How does the Constitution require that representatives should be counted

Outside of the political system

How have candidates been able to raise money?

census data

How is the number of electors assigned to each state determined? Elections The Supreme Court Political parties Census data

January-June (6 Months)

How long do caucuses and primaries run from?

2 years

How many years does someone in the House of Representatives serve during their term

Front Porch Campaign

In 1896, William McKinley conducted this low-key campaign wherein he never left his Canton, Ohio home. Large crowds of spectators were brought to his home to meet the candidate. This campaign contrasted sharply with McKinley'sopposing candidate, William Jennings Bryan, who gave over 600 speeches and traveled many miles all over the United States to campaign. McKinley outdid this by spending about twice as much money. McKinley won this election.

Federal Election Campaign Act; Federal Election Committee

In 1971, Congress tried to put candidates on an equal financial footing and make them less beholden to special interests by passing the ................................................ This law transformed campaigns, since it requires candidates and political parties to disclose their campaign financial records. In 1974, Congress amended the law to set strict limits on how much money could be contributed by individuals and parties to campaigns, and created the ................................................. as an independent agency to monitor campaign finance. Under the rules, candidates seeking their party's nomination are given public funds for the campaign in the form of matching funds: a dollar amount equal to the amount the candidates raise from private contributors, with a limit per individual contributor and an overall cap. As of 2020, the limit per contributor was $2,800 in the primary and $2,800 in the general campaign. After the Supreme Court's ruling in McCutcheon, et al. v. FEC, individuals have no limit on the number of campaigns to which they may contribute.

70 %; 90 %; 10%

In 2020, we saw the Democrats move toward primaries and away from caucuses. In the past for Democrats, about ..................... percent of states used primaries. Nearly ....................... percent of the states use some form of primary election in which citizens go to the polling booths and vote for their favorite party candidates. The other .................... percent use caucuses, which are something like town meetings. The Republicans went in a different direction. Trump sought to close the process to candidates who might challenge him for the nomination, so the number of primaries and caucuses dropped. It became a much more closed process. It will be interesting to see if the rules for 2024 shift back to more openness and more primaries for the GOP.

two years; people

In contrast to the Senate, the entire House of Representatives is up for election every .............................. Also in contrast to the Senate, House members have always been elected directly by the ................................

1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016

In what years did presidents who won the popular vote didn't win the electoral college

vanishing marginals ; safe seats

Incumbents almost always win, and in the past two decades, more than 70 percent of House incumbents won by 60 percent or more of the vote (see Figure 10.5). Since the 1960s, the number of competitive races has been in decline, a trend called .................................................. Fewer and fewer congressional elections are competitive. Noncompetitive districts are often referred to as ............................... The high rates of incumbent reelection may indicate that incumbents are doing a good job, especially with constituent services that build support with voters (see also Chapter 12).

Super PACs

Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties.

Election Process

Many observers worry about the influence of money on the ........................................, believing that these huge amounts undermine the fairness of the process by giving the wealthy more gateways to influence politicians and policy. But it is far from clear that candidates are being "bought" with this influx of money. Big donors often give money to the candidate they agree with on the largest number of issues. It is worth remembering that most of this money is being spent on getting candidates' messages out to the public and building organizations to get out the vote—so one could argue that additional money in the electoral system informs people and activates them to participate. Campaign spending, as a result, can stimulate interest in the election, which is also a benefit. It is also not clear that money drives the outcomes of elections. Trump was vastly outspent by Clinton in 2016 and won. Or consider Bloomberg's and Sanders' fund raising edge over Biden. It did not keep the former vice president from winning the nomination. The bottom line is that money buys advertisements, but not always votes. Like most of American politics, campaign fundraising and spending offer a mixed story of gates and gateways.

Local Parties

Most common local organization is the county party, which is usually run by a committee

Super PACs

Much of this surge in money can be tied to the Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010; see Supreme Court Cases in Chapter 8, Interest Groups). This landmark case allowed for increased campaign fundraising (and spending) as it undid many of the restrictions formerly placed on corporations and unions. One critical consequence was the rise of .........................................., which—unlike PACs—can raise funds from corporations, unions, interest groups, and individuals without legal limits. These organizations are not allowed to coordinate directly with the candidates they support, but often those who run a ....................................................are friends and former aides to the candidates, making the distinction questionable. This has given the wealthy a chance to influence the electoral process in dramatic ways, since a single individual can fund a ............................... In April 2016 more than 40 percent of all campaign contributions had been made by just fifty donors. This concentration of funding in a handful of mega-donors poses a problem for the election process and stands in sharp contrast to the breadth of participation that Sanders' campaign represented. The 2020 Democratic primary saw two self-funded campaigns. Billionaires Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg spent almost $400 million (mostly on advertisements) between them before any primary votes were even cast. This amount of money coming directly from the candidate is a different type of mega-donor campaign funding. However, ......................................... continue to matter. After dropping out of the 2020 Democratic primary, Bloomberg started his own Super PAC to help defeat Trump. He spent $100 million to support Joe Biden in Florida alone.

activists ; party leaders

National conventions do more than select the presidential nominee. They provide a chance for ......................................... and ..................................... to get together to discuss strategy and policy behind the scenes. They approve the party platform and also approve the vice presidential nominee. A highlight of these four days is the acceptance speech, in which the party's nominee speaks directly to the nation, laying out a vision for the country. There is much excitement surrounding these events. Because the party dominates the news for these four days, the convention is both an advertisement for the party and its candidate and an important springboard for the fall campaign.a

valence issue

Noncontroversial or widely supported campaign issues that are unlikely to differ among candidates.

Local Parties

Of the other sources of financial support available to candidates, the most important is the political party. Parties are forbidden by campaign finance laws from actively coordinating a specific individual's congressional or senatorial campaign, but ........................................... can engage in general activities, such as voter registration drives, partisan rallies, and get-out-the-vote efforts on Election Day that help party-endorsed candidates at every level.

Daisy Spot

One of the most famous examples of negativity is the so-called ................................. This was a television commercial aired only once by President Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 campaign against the Republican nominee, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. The implication in the ad was that if Goldwater were elected president, he would start a nuclear war. It was a very hard-hitting claim that many thought unfair. But was it? Goldwater had called for the tactical use of nuclear weapons and made some loose statements about attacking the Soviet Union with nuclear weapons. This issue was among the most important facing the nation—much like terrorism is now. The public needed to know Goldwater's views, and this negative ad helped generate a debate.

invisible primary

Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage.

position issue

Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates' views and plans of action.

1960

Prior to this particular year it was uncertain who the presidential nominee would be at a national convention

Seventeenth Amendment (1913)

Progressive reform from 1913 that required U.S. senators to be elected directly by voters; previously, senators were chosen by state legislatures.

dozens of versions;

Rather than a general political message sent through a specific medium, campaigns are now able to send ................................................ of the message using various methods—mail, phone calls, e-mail, text messages, social media, home visits—to reach targeted audiences. This strategy takes a person-by-person view of the electorate rather than a view of the electorate en masse. So, instead of targeting a broad category such as women, campaigns can now focus on narrow subgroups such as undecided iPhone owners in their 30s who follow the news and hence are open to a message from a campaign.

term limits

Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office.

Safe Seats

Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other.

decrease the role of states; small states

Some may wonder why the country does not just change the rules to select the president through the popular vote. This method would appear more democratic because all votes would be treated equally. But the current system has some advantages. For example, the Electoral College system encourages candidates to secure support in all corners of the country, not just in areas with dense populations. A system of popular votes would privilege Los Angeles over Oklahoma. In America's federal system, the states do matter. Eliminating the Electoral College would ................................................................., dampening the significance of state interests. There are also practical problems. Doing away with the Electoral College through a constitutional amendment would be difficult because it is unlikely that three-quarters of the states, needed to ratify an amendment, would support such a reform. .............................................. see merit in the system, since it forces presidential candidates to consider their needs and gives them a chance for influence.

battleground states

State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College.

Swing States

States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro-Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes.

incumbent party; incumbent party; (incumbent party's time in office as a prediction determinant)

The .......................................... time in office. How long has the ......................................................... controlled the presidency? The American public has shown a consistent preference for change. A party that has been in power for a long time usually has made enough mistakes to lead citizens to vote for the other side. Over the course of American history, parties have tended to control the White House for about two terms before turning power over to the other side. Harry Truman's win in 1948 was the fifth straight win by the Democrats. This winning streak is unprecedented. Since 1948, there has been only one time a party won three presidential contests in a row (1980, 1984, and 1988).

Electoral College

The Constitution gave state legislatures the responsibility of deciding how best to choose electors, either by choosing the electors themselves or granting the people the right to choose the electors. Because state legislators were, for the most part, elected by the people, this arrangement gave the public an indirect say in the choice. The idea was that the ....................................... would serve as a gatekeeper against rash or ignorant voters. There was little support among the Framers for letting the people choose the president directly. In fact, during the debates at the Constitutional Convention, George Mason said that allowing the people to select the president would be like referring "a trial of colors to a blind man." Today the people of each state, not the members of state legislatures, choose the electors in an arrangement that has given citizens a new gateway for influence (see Figure 10.1).

Seventeenth Amendment ; 1913; 1/3

The Constitution originally gave the choice of senators to state legislatures. Again the Framers inserted a gate between the people and those who were to serve their interests in the Senate. In the late nineteenth century, however, Progressive reformers called for elimination of this gate, arguing that the people ought to have a direct say in the election of senators. This reform became a reality with the adoption of the ....................................... in ....................................... Even with this change, however, there are barriers against overwhelming change in the composition of the Senate because elections are staggered; ....... of senators are up for election at any one time. This arrangement ensures that the Senate is insulated from large shifts in public sentiment.

Population

The Constitution requires that states apportion representatives by ......................................., which is counted every ten years in the U.S. Census. Originally, each member was to represent no more than thirty thousand people. As the population grew, the House of Representatives grew as well, from 65 members in 1789 to 237 members in 1857. The House continued to grow until 1911, and in 1929, the number was capped at 435. A member now represents, on average, more than seven hundred thousand people, as set by the 2010 census. Every ten years, states draw new district lines following a census. Depending on patterns of population growth or decline, states win or lose congressional seats with each new census. Currently seven states have populations so small that they qualify for only one member of the House of Representatives (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming). These states do not need to worry about drawing new congressional districts.

individuals; political parties; parties

The Electoral College has never worked as the Framers envisioned, as an institution that would allow a group of independent decision makers to get together in the many states and deliberate over who would make the best president. The Framers viewed the presidency as a contest between ......................................., not between ......................................................., and in the first four presidential elections (1789, 1792, 1796, and 1800), electors cast ballots for their top two choices; the winner became president, and the second-place finisher became vice president. The process ignored the ...............................................of the candidates; the goal was to select the most qualified person. In 1796, the process yielded John Adams (1797-1801) as president and his chief rival, Thomas Jefferson, as vice president. Just imagine Hillary Clinton serving as Donald Trump's vice president!

Personally Wealthy

The amount of money required to wage a competitive contest for a seat in Congress is formidable, and it gives an advantage to people who are ................................... and able to make good use of personal or business connections. Name recognition also helps in fundraising. For example, a local sports hero or decorated war veteran who chooses to run for office gets enough free publicity to attract interest. In 2020, Mark Kelly—famous astronaut married to Gabby Giffords—ran for Senate in Arizona. He won the nomination and narrowly defeated Martha McSally for the seat.

automatically translate into a win

The biggest problem with the Electoral College occurs when winning the nation's popular vote does not ........................................................... in the Electoral College, meaning that the individual who received fewer votes could become the president. This happened in the 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 presidential elections. Such outcomes raise questions about equality. If a democracy rests on the idea of majority rule—that is, the candidate with the most support in the public wins the election—then about 10 percent of our presidential elections have been "undemocratic."

risk; reward

The debates draw tremendous amounts of attention from the news media. Any mistake by a candidate generates scrutiny. In 1992, President George H. W. Bush (1989-93) was caught looking at his watch during one of the debates, giving the impression that he was bored. That perception fueled the belief that Bush was out of touch, causing him problems in his reelection bid against Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. In 2012, Mitt Romney turned in a very good performance against President Obama in their first debate in Denver. Obama seemed disengaged. The debate made Romney look presidential and gave his campaign a short-term boost. Hillary Clinton scored well in her debates with Donald Trump, but there were no long-term effects. Debates usually have much more .................. than ......................, and campaign insiders usually hope for no more than an error-free performance by their candidate.

Best prediction model

The economy. What is the condition of the economy? A strong economy leads voters to support the incumbent party. A struggling economy gives an edge to the challenger. Presidential popularity. How popular is the sitting president? An unpopular president will hurt the chances for his party's candidate. The incumbent party's time in office. How long has the incumbent party controlled the presidency? The American public has shown a consistent preference for change. A party that has been in power for a long time usually has made enough mistakes to lead citizens to vote for the other side. Over the course of American history, parties have tended to control the White House for about two terms before turning power over to the other side. Harry Truman's win in 1948 was the fifth straight win by the Democrats. This winning streak is unprecedented. Since 1948, there has been only one time a party won three presidential contests in a row (1980, 1984, and 1988).

Faithless Electors

The electors, however, remain the formal decision makers for choosing the president. In fact, they meet in December to vote formally for the president—five or so weeks after Election Day in November. These electors are selected in a variety of ways in the fifty states. It is very much a state-centered process. Before the election, each party lines up electors for its nominee. In the 2016 presidential election, when Hillary Clinton won the most votes in the state of California, her electors were then eligible to vote in December's meeting of the Electoral College. Republican candidate Donald Trump had different electors ready to serve if he had won. Presidential nominees seek to identify people who will be loyal to them. This is important because thirty-two states allow electors to vote their conscience, meaning they are not legally bound by the results of the election in their state. These electors are often referred to as ................................................ and states handle electors deviating in various ways. Some states, like Virginia and California, have no penalties in place for deviant votes. As of 2020, only eleven states cancel the vote and replace the elector if he or she is a faithless one.

John F. Kennedy; Richard Nixon; televised debates

The first presidential debate was between ..................................... and ....................................... in 1960, and many felt that ................................................ performance was critical to his narrow win. Thereafter, incumbent candidates were reluctant to participate in .............................................., fearing that they might have more to lose than to win. But in 1976, President Gerald R. Ford (1974-77), behind in the polls, viewed the debates as a chance to narrow Jimmy Carter's lead. Since that time, the presidential debates have been a regular feature of the fall campaign.

campaign strategy

The geographic size of a congressional district or state can affect ........................................ Some urban districts are small, such as in New York City, but often very expensive to campaign in due to costs of television. Other districts involve much more territory to cover: Crisscrossing Wyoming to meet voters is a much larger task than driving across Rhode Island. Because it is so difficult to establish a personal relationship with constituents in large districts and states, congressional campaigns in these areas are typically less about the personal characteristics of the candidates and more about issues and party policies.

Electoral College

The means by which the president of the United States is selected was born of compromise between the interests of the states and the interests of the people, yielding a system that even today is indirect and confusing. Like the Connecticut Compromise that produced a legislature with an upper chamber to represent the states and a lower chamber to represent the people, the system for electing the president was intended to be similarly balanced. The formal selection of the president is in the hands of electors, who collectively constitute the ........................................................................

Electoral College

The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president.

less transparency

The real problem with Super PACs and the issue ads they sponsor is that voters do not always know where the money is coming from. Under the new campaign rules, there is ......................................... Thus, as noted above, it is possible for one or two wealthy donors to fund a Super PAC, and to the extent that the Super PAC's issue ads impact an election outcome, some observers contend that these results distort the electoral process. It should be noted that despite all the Super PAC spending against Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries and caucuses ($381,776,844), he continued to do well. The same was true for Barack Obama in 2012. In 2020, 197 Super PACs spent over $1.8 billion on the election. Both sides used Super PACs to attack Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For example, the conservative Senate Leadership Fund spent over $308 million and the liberal Senate Majority PAC spent over $254 million in support of their respective candidate.

Public System

There are complicated rules for the public financing of presidential nomination campaigns, but they have not really mattered over the last few presidential elections. Candidates now tend to raise huge amounts of money outside of the ....................................., spending as they see fit in the primaries and caucuses. This change has introduced a lot more money into the political system. Bernie Sanders raised over $215 million in 2020. in his quest to win the Democratic nomination in 2020. By October 22, 2020, Biden and the DNC had raised about $1.5 billion, while Trump and the RNC raised over $1.57 billion for his reelection bid. In the first half of October alone, Biden raised $167 million. Trump raised $82 million in the first half of October, which highlighted the passion of the Democrats nearing Election Day. There are reasons to worry about the amount of money now in the election process, but raising these amounts of money does open some gates to influence. Consider Bernie Sanders. In January 2020, he raised $25 million from 648,000 individuals, an average of $18 per donation. This level of engagement is impressive. The internet makes it efficient to raise small amounts of money, and presidential candidates welcome that kind of broad-based support.

permanent campaign

Throughout 2015, seventeen candidates announced their decision to seek the White House, including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio. Starting the day after the 2016 election, speculation began about who might run in 2020. Would Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Senator Cory Booker, or Vice President Joe Biden try for the Democratic nomination? As it turns out, all three of them did run, along with about 25 other Democratic hopefuls; ultimately Joe Biden prevailed. It is no wonder that many observers have expressed concern over what has been called the ...........................................................,

Valence issue; position issue; Valence issue; Valence issue; position issue; Valence issue

To understand how issues influence campaigns, political scientists have drawn a distinction between .............................. and ................................ ......................................... is a vague claim to a goal, such as "a strong economy," "improved education," or "greater national security." These are goals all candidates talk about and voters seek: No candidate has ever opposed a strong economy or called for less national security. ..............................................provide limited insight into the policies a candidate might pursue once in office. A ................................................... is different. Here candidates adopt views that allow voters to understand specific plans for government. Two examples from the 2016 campaign are Hillary Clinton's support for making college debt free for students and Donald Trump's opposition to the Affordable Care Act. Because taking clear positions on issues may drive some votes away, presidential candidates rely more heavily on .................................................... According to one study, about three-quarters of their TV ads highlight valence issues.

vanishing marginals

Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections.

swing voters

Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins.

They engage in activities such as voter registration drives, partisan rallies, and get out the vote efforts

What are local parties known for?

Term limits cause they fear for the lack of accountability in congress

What do people think the constitution should implement based on the advantages of incumbents in office?

That will have an effect on the election process

What do people worry about money in terms of campaigns

geographic size

What factor can alter campaign strategies

In order to avoid being monarch he allowed political parties to work on his behalf

What happened during George Washington's Presidency?

It allows activists and party leaders to get together to discuss strategy behind the scenes

What is a secondary reason why national conventions are important

When you win the popular vote is doesn't translate automatically for people to win the electoral college

What is considered the biggest problem of the electoral college?

nonpartisan; nonprofit

What is the alternative

Economy ; (The economy as a prediction determinant)

What is the condition of the ....................................? A strong ........................................ leads voters to support the incumbent party. A struggling ............................................... gives an edge to the challenger.

70%

What is the percentage of states that use primaries

90 %

What is the percentage of states that use primary election ?

That it contains more risk than reward for the candidate partaking in it based on how well he/she perform in the debate

What is the reality of debates??

90%

What percentage of campaigns are done towards battleground states

10% (it says 30% percent on review slide)

What remaining percent of states use Caucuses

It was supposed to serve as a gatekeeper against rash or ignorant voters

What was the purpose of the Electoral College?

It would decrease the role and power of the states, and the small states see it as a worthy system because it forces the President to actually care about their needs

What would be a bad effect of eliminating the Electoral College

Non-partisan; non-profit commission

Who are the people in charge of managing presidential debates?

Between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon and it was televised and on the Radio

Who was the first presidential debate between and how was it presented?

Front porch ; Back of trains

William Mckinley ran his campaign from his .......................................................... William Jennings Bryan ran his campaign from ..................................................................................................

non-partisan; non-profit commission

With both party nominees chosen, campaigning for the general election formally starts and the election battle ensues on many fronts. One significant event in the fall is the series of televised presidential debates. In 2016, more than 220 million people watched Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump address the issues in a debate format. In 2020, there were only two presidential debates because one was canceled due to Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis. The debates that took place followed social distance guidelines and were watched by millions. That being said, the second debate had 10 million fewer viewers than the first. Today these events, as well as a vice presidential debate, are managed by the ..............................., ........................... Commission on Presidential Debates, which was established in 1987. The commission chooses the locations and sets the rules.

get-out-the-vote (GOTV)

a push at the end of a political campaign to encourage supporters to go to the polls

microtargeting

an approach to campaigning that uses databases to identify specific groups of voters who can then be targeted with campaign messages designed to appeal to their interests

Voter registration drives

events held by civil rights organizations to help African-Americans achieve the correct credentials needed in order to vote

Daisy Spot

one of the most controversial political advertisement aired on television during Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 presidential election. It was only aired once but it is considered an important factor in Johnson's landslide victory and an important turning point in political/advertising history.

retrospective voting

refers to voting made after taking into consideration factors like the performance of a political party, an officeholder, and/or the administration. It presumes that people are more concerned with policy outcomes than policy instruments. There are two types of retrospective voting. They are based on simple retrospective evaluations based mainly on direct experience with personal finance, war, civil rights, and the like. Another is based on mediated retrospective evaluations which are those evaluations that depend on some intermediary.