Chapter 1

Overconfidence

"I am sure I am correct." We humans tend to think we know more than we do. Example: WREAT ---> WATER Knowing the answers tends to make us overconfident. A person seeing the answer to this word scramble would think that it would take 10 seconds to solve it. In reality it would take an average of 3 minutes.

Perceiving Order in Random Events

"The dice must be fixed because you rolled three sixes in a row." We are prone to perceive patterns. So we find patterns in the most random of events.

Scatterplot

A graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. The slope of the point suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates high correlation).

Correlation

A measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other.: an observation that two traits or attributes are related to each other (thus, they are "co"-related). It's is negative if two sets of scores relate inversely, one set going up as the other goes down. It's positive if two sets of scores, such as height and weight, tend to rise or fall together.

Experiment

A research method in which a investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims o control other relevant factors

Random sampling

A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion."Random" means that your selection of participants is driven only by chance, not by any characteristic.

Scientific Method

A self-correcting process for asking questions and observing nature's answers. Begins with a theory and leads to a hypothesis then to research and observations which confirms/rejects/revises the theory. setting up situations that test our ideas. making careful, organized observations. analyzing whether the data fits with our ideas. If the data doesn't fit our ideas, then we modify our ideas, and test again.

Operational Definitions

A statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables. For example, human intelligence may be operationally defined as "what an intelligence test measures." Example: Hunger might be defined as "hours without eating", generosity as "money contributed".

Correlation Coefficient

A statistical index of the relationship between two things (-1 to +1). It helps us figure how closely two things vary together, and thus how well either one predicts the other. Example: Knowing how much aptitude test scores correlate with school success tells us how well the scores predict school success

Surveys

A technique for ascertaining the self reported attitudes or behaviors of a particular group, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of the group. A method of gathering information about many people's thoughts or behaviors

Hypothesis

A testable prediction, often implied by a theory. By enabling us to test and to reject or revise our theory, such predictions direct research. "Testable" means that the hypothesis is stated in a way that we could make observations to find out if it is true. What would be a prediction from the "All ADHD is about sugar" theory?

Population

All the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn. (NOTE: Except for national studies, this does not refer to a country's whole population).

Humility

An awareness of our own vulnerability to error and an openness to surprises and new perspectives. Seeking the truth rather than trying to be right; a scientist needs to be able to accept being wrong.

Theory

An explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events. By organizing isolated facts, a theory simplifies. By linking facts with deeper principles, a theory offers a useful summary. As we connect the observed dots, a coherent picture emerges. Example of a theory: "All ADHD symptoms are a reaction to eating sugar."

Case Study

An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. They can show us what can happen, and they often suggest directions for further study. It does not explain behavior, it describes it.

Perceiving Order in Random Events Error

Example: The coin tosses that "look wrong" if there are five heads in a row. Danger: thinking you can make a prediction from a random series. If the ball in the roulette wheel has landed on an even number four times in a row, it does not increase the likelihood that it will land on an odd number on the next spin. Why this error happens: because we have the wrong idea about what randomness looks like.

What is the phenomena of this example called?

Example: There are 2 groups. Tell one group "Psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic attraction" (Out of sight out of mind). Ask them why this might be true. Most people can and nearly all will then view this true finding as unsurprising. Tell the other group "Psychologists have found that separation strengthens romantic attraction" (Absence makes the hear grow fonder)". People given this untrue result can also easily imagine it, and most will also see it as unsurprising. What is this phenomena?

placebo effect

Experimental results caused by expectations alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which the recipient assumes an active agent

Why do/should we use critical thinking?

In addition to the scientific method, critical thinking will help us develop more effective and accurate ways to figure out what makes people do, think, and feel the things they do. The brain is designed for surviving and reproducing, but it is not the best tool for seeing 'reality' clearly. To improve our thinking, we will learn to catch ourselves in some critical thinking errors.

Experimental group

In an experiment, the group that is exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable

control group

In an experiment, the group that is not exposed to the treatment; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment

What are the results of the scientific method?

In the end, our theory will be useful if it 1. organizes a range of self-reports and observations, 2. implies predictions that anyone can use to check the theory or to derive practical applications. Eventually our research may lead to a revised theory that better organizes and predicts what we know. Or, our research may be replicated and supported by similar findings.

Correlational Methods

Method that associates different factors

Descriptive Methods

Method that describes behaviors, often through case studies, surveys, or naturalistic observations.

Experimental Methods

Method that manipulates factors to discover their efforts

Replicate (repeat)

Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances. Research means trying it again using the same operational definitions of the concepts and procedures. You could introduce a small change in the study, e.g. trying the ADHD/sugar test on college students instead of elementary students.

Critical Thinking

Smart thinking. Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions. Refers to a more careful style of forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using intuition. Analyzing information to decide if it makes sense, rather than simply accepting it. Goal: getting at the truth, even if it means putting aside your own ideas

mean

The arithmetic average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores

Independent variable

The experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied. It varies independently of other factors, such as age, weight, and personality.

mode

The most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution

Hindsight-Bias

The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. (a.k.a. the I-knew-it-all-along-phenomenon). Hindsight bias is like a crystal ball that we use to predict... the past. The mind builds its current wisdom around what we have already been told. We are "biased" in favor of old information.

Why can't we rely solely on intuition and common sense?

The three phenomena-hindsight bias, judgmental overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events

Overconfidence Error 1 Performance

We are much too certain in our judgments. We overestimate our performance, our rate of work, our skills, and our degree of self-control.

Overconfidence Error 2:Accuracy

We overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge. People are much more certain than they are accurate. Overconfidence is a problem in eyewitness testimony. Overconfidence is also a problem on tests. If you feel confident that you know a concept, try explaining it to someone else.

Skepticism

What do you mean? How do you know? Not believing (being doubtful of something) something that is seen, must be proved factually for a skeptic to believe it. Not accepting a 'fact' as true without challenging it; seeing if 'facts' can withstand attempts to disprove them

standard deviation

a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score

Cofounding variable

a factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect in an experiment. Example: Did ice cream sales cause a rise in violence, or vice versa? There might be a confounding variable: temperature.

statistical influence

a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance

normal curve (normal distribution)

a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scores fall near the mean (about 68% fall within one standard deviation of it) and fewer and fewer near the extremes

informed consent

an ethical principle that research participants be told enough to enable them to choose whether they wish to participate

double blind procedure

an experimental procedure in which both the research participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or a placebo. Commonly used in drug-evaluation studies.

random assignment

assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups

Naturalistic Observation

gathering data about behavior; watching but not intervening. It does not explain behavior, it describes it.

range

the difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution

culture

the enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes, values, and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next

median

the middle score in a distribution; half the scores are above it and half are below it

Dependent variable

the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable. The variable we expect to experience a change which depends on the manipulation we're doing

debriefing

the post experimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions, to its participants

Wording effects

the results you get from a survey can be changed by your word selection. Example: Q: Do you have motivation to study hard for this course? Q: Do you feel a desire to study hard for this course?