GOV 312L Test 3

6. What are the demands of each side in the U.S.-China trade war regarding the so-called mini-deal?

US -guaranttees that china will buy billions in us farm exports China -wants assurances that us will lift existing tariffs rather than not impose schedules tariffs there's a split in trump admin, some want trump to keep tariffs to put pressue on china, others want shorter term deal to boost trump's reelection

How do the reasons behind North Korea's pursuit of a nuclear arsenal complicate negotiations to get it to give up its nuclear program?

-Because giving up the the nuclear program can potentially hurt N.Korea, thus Leader Kim demands a higher deal from Trump ( ex: US lift of economic sanctions = complicated because this is US biggest leverage in this negotiation)

4. What is the political significance of the dollar's reserve currency status in the global economy?

-Because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, the dollar is the currency used in all international transactions. This makes other countries more willing to trade for it which allows the U.S. government to take out some thiccccccccc ;-))) loans from other countries to pay for things the American public doesn't want. -For instance, the Iraq War was funded through borrowing/foreign loans (treasury bonds). -This reserve status creates a steady demand for financial assets like US treasury bonds that are dominated in dollars. This sets up a situation where the global economy depends on the US to run a budget deficit.

8. What are the main components of the Paris Climate Accord? How should it operate to limit the growth of carbon dioxide emissions?

-Goal to limit temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius, hope to change this to 1.5 -Binding process for monitoring and reporting pledges on emissions targets and progress -Plans made public every 5 years. Each plan needs to be stronger than previous. -Foreign aid to developing countries to ease costs of alternative energies -Not legally binding emission targets -Work through politics of naming and shaming

What were the main forces that served as an impetus for the U.S. to construct the Bretton Woods order?

-Great Depression -emerging battle against communism -increasing support for free trade in the US. -Collapse of economic cooperation -Nazi takeover and imperial rivalry

6. According to your reading for this module, how does international migration affect the demographic composition of countries?

-It diversifies the people, making the majority less of a majority thereby threatening the majority. -National identity and migrants may not be able to mix -Immigrants with different languages, religions, etc. would cause changes to national identity

How did it navigate the tension between developed and developing countries?

-It gave developing countries $100 billion for development that is not an industrial revolution (to appease developing countries) while also maintaining that they reduce carbon emissions (to appease developed countries).

How has China managed its growing international influence?

-It has managed its growing international influence by subtly growing its power with espionage, infrastructure, military power, and economic power;

How might it operate to reduce carbon emissions and limit the increase of average temperatures?

-It is a voluntary agreement that has voluntary targets (goals for emissions) for those in the agreement. -Each nation sets its own goals and publicly states policies as a way of binding them to reaching their targets

3. What types of international behavior does power transition theory expect from global powers that are ascendant versus global powers that are in decline?

-Rising power will attempt to alter the status quo. -Declining power is less capable of enforcing international order, and therefore will launch preventative war to weaken the rising power.

How does the experience of other states such as Iraq and Libya affect North Korea's perceptions regarding its nuclear program?

-See experience of Iraq and Libya so reinforce fears -Observing how Libya signed a treaty to cease their nuclear program and still saw the US support the overthrow of the Gaddafi Regime, North Korea is now hesitant to negotiate any treaty that could see to the end of its nuclear program.

Why is a general election a risk for Prime Minister Johnson's strategy if his party does not achieve a majority in the British parliament?

-all other major parties are against it -no reliable coalition to get majority -difficult to see how the conservatives could break through -its a hung parliment rn -> no majority -all eggs in one basket

4. What is the collective action problem?

-collective action problem: describes the situation in which multiple individuals would all benefit from a certain action, but has an associated cost making it implausible that any individual can or will undertake and solve it alone

4. What are the positions of the Conservative Party, Labour Party, and Liberal Democratic Party regarding Brexit in the general election campaign?

-conservative party: want brexit -Labour party: oppose brexit -Liberal dem. party: oppose brexit

How did this shift affect prospects for a deal on North Korea's nuclear program?

-cycle might start again -darn it

8. Describe the shift in approach by the Trump administration during and after the Hanoi Summit.

-willing for step-by-step approach before and willing to pursue joint commitments -after they wanted total denuclearization -shifte from step-by--step approach to denuclearization -trump administration insist on grand bargain that reguire nk to give up all nuclear programs

Which groups win and lose from globalization inside the United States?

-winners are high tech firms, financial services, agriculture (disproportionately represented in the Senate) and industries in need of high-skilled labor -losers are in classic, red-blooded American manufacturing and consumers due to the collective action problem

7. How did the Hanoi Summit end? Why did President Trump walk away from a deal with North Korea at this summit?

-worsened relations after summit -failure of summit -collapsed when us reject nk offer -us asked nk to close nuclear plant, but nk said no -nk demanded excessive sanction relief but trump did not want to do (nk said they only wanted partial sanction relief) -trump said he wouldn't increase sanctions to not hurt the "good ppl" in nk -disagreed over terms of plans + sanction relief amount

What are some of the norms, principles, and rules associated with the GATT and WTO?

- Sets up reciprocity in trade making - Helps facilitate cooperation - Leads to increased aggregate trade -Trade policy has been conducted under through two major channels - negotiating rounds and the use of the dispute settlement mechanism (DSM). -GATT:multilateral org designed to support reduction of trade barriers on reciprocal basis -provided series of rules that guide negotiating rounds during cold war -no enforcement capabilities and disputes handled on bilateral basis World Trade Organization -institutionalized a dispute settlement mechanism with established procedures for filing grievance, investigating complaints, and punishing defecation -ensure states uphold existing trade concessions negotiated -judicial panel can enforce these obligations by authorizing compensation to injured parties in form of trade sanctions; plaintiff has a lot of discretion on where to impose tariffs-keeps global economy open by punishing states pursuing protection -ineffective over last decade in securing further trade liberalization because limited support in developed world

How are trade deficits related to foreign capital inflows and investment in the United States?

-A current account deficit (income) stimulates a capital account surplus (assets/liabilities), which means more borrowing than lending. - This borrowing is done through selling treasury bonds to foreign investors, which they see as stable, safe investments. -As a country imports more stuff, loans are taken out to finance the purchase of those imports -A trade deficit indicates a healthy investment climate in the US.

What are the political challenges associated with American efforts to promote democracy?

-A lot of third world countries especially in Asia that haven't had a good history with the US are wary when they want to introduce democracy because they believe that it will be bad and they don't want to adopt democracy for that reason -post Bush administration (negative effects of Iraq war and its unpopularity in US) results in greater skepticism of democracy promotion by US military forces -Obama continues American commitment to liberal values like democracy but withdrew US military from Iraq and sought to keep US out of long term engagements like Syria -Trump's America First with reducing the economic burden of American hegemony has diminished democracy promotion of USfp

3. What is a trade deficit?

-A trade deficit occurs when imports exceed exports (or the country is running a current account deficit). imports>exports

What is the main source of its influence in the international economy?

-Acts like a gatekeeper in the developing world potentially enforcing limited access to capital markets until they get their financial houses in order

3. Describe the relationship between North Korea and the United States under the Trump administration. How has the relationship between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un evolved since the beginning of Trump's presidency?

-At first exchanged personal threats/insults -More recently signals to communicate with the summits; offer concessions to show how serious to pursue own goals by public statements -Neither side has a good options with military so both sides step back from crisis and try to have a break through in their relationship

According to your reading for this module, how does international migration present challenges for national security but also resources that can enhance a country's security?

-Challenge security: -Immigration raises fears of infiltration by terrorists through lack of regulation -Challenge state sovereignty and worries about the slippery slope if others perceive them as weak -Leads to stricter control/regulation of access through borders, especially of refugees and migrants from countries experiencing war -Enhance security Accepting migrants increases security by improving relations with other nations by taking in their migrants, or pressuring adversaries by taking in the refugees the adversaries oppressed

2. How does North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) change the balance of power between North Korea and the United States?

-Changes the balance of power btwn. North Korea and U.S. to favor North Korea because if North Korea can successfully test any of the ICBMs, then they have the nuclear power to launch an attack to the U.S. (to retaliate against a U.S. nuclear attack against North Korea) --Possession of ICBMs from North Korea can attack an American city -> less likely for U.S. to come to aid of South Korea and Japan (might be encouraged to develop nuclear weapons of their own to protect themselves w/o U.S. aid) --The only reason why North Korea hasn't attacked Japan and South Korea so far is because the U.S. can send its largest ICBM arsenal to destroy North Korea

6. According to the Mastro reading, what do Chinese leaders want for their country when it comes to global hegemony?

-China doesn't want global hegemony instead, China wants to displace rather than replace the United States as hegemon, especially in Asia;

Why is political cooperation between states on international economic affairs difficult to achieve?

-Commitment problem -the problem of contracting over time: states cheat -Uncertainty about political interests of other states, states have different constituencies so they may be saying different things to different constituencies -monitoring compliance -distributional hurdles: which side is getting a better deal? -relative gains are more important than absolute gains

What is the commitment problem in this situation and how does it help to explain the incentives for declining powers to launch a preventive war against rising powers?

-Commitment problem manifests in the rising powers lack of commitment to maintain new status quo when becoming the most powerful. -A weak great power cannot prevent future great power self from revising economic, territorial, and political status quo of great power politics. -For example, China needs to commit to its goal of military expansion in the South China sea to be successful. Anything but total commitment to this goal would result in China's failure to control the region. -Declining state launches a preventive war because rising state can not commit to preserve SQ system and the benefits it creates -When states are descending they are at a risk for war because they are losing power and there is a commitment problem

What is comparative advantage and how does it contribute to aggregate economic gains for states from trade?

-Comparative advantage means that a state can produce a good more efficiently than another state. -Holding the comparative advantage in a good allows a state to specialize in that good and trade for goods that are more expensive to produce domestically, leading to an aggregate increase in wealth.

What is conditionality and how does the IMF use it to promote economic reforms within countries?

-Conditionality- demands conditions that change economic conditions in country and enhance long term ability to repay. --Get partial money then must implement reforms to get more. Raise taxes and cut spending

Module 20: Democracy Promotion in US Foreign Policy 1. What is democracy?

-Democracy is the institution by which people acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the people's vote.

4. How and why has Democracy Promotion been a more or less important element within U.S. foreign policy over the years?

-Democracy promotion has often been a justification for American intervention in other countries. -Post WWI was one of the first instances of American democracy promotion. -Woodrow Wilson promoted democracy and self-determination in the aftermath of World War I. -One of Wilson's main reasons for entering the war was to be able to sit at the negotiation table after the war and promote democracy then. -During the Cold War, democracy promotion was put in the backseat as America focused on containing communism and the Soviet Union. - The U.S. backed dictatorships under individuals like Augusto Pinochet or Carlos Castillo Armas, both of whom led repressive regimes. Because they opposed communism, that was good enough for the United States. Instead of promoting democracy, they focused to negate communism globally. -After the Cold War, democracy promotion reemerged as former Soviet satellite states were incorporated into organizations like the European Union. -During the Iraq War, democracy promotion was used to justify the deployment of troops into Iraq. The reasoning was that spreading democracy to Iraq would encourage other nearby states to do the same (neighborhood effect) and decrease the level of terrorism in the Middle East. The results are subjective.

2. What is the democratic peace theory?

-Democratic peace theory holds that within a community of democracies, war is less likely (less likely than democracy-autocracy or autocracy-autocracy war).

Module 18: Great Power Politics II: Hegemony, Power Transition Theory, and US- China Relations 1. What is polarity?

-Denotes the number of great powers in a system -distribution of capabilities among great powers in the international system

5. What is denuclearization? Describe the key differences in how the United States and North Korea understand this key concept.

-Denuclearize: to take away or prevent use of nuclear arms -US: give up nuclear weapons in exchange for economic sanctions release; give up weapons first; US gets to leave military footprint in S Korea/Japan -N Korea: will give up weapons once lifts sanctions, but US ends presence in S KoreaUnclear what it really means; lacks specifics

How does the dispute settlement mechanism in the WTO support international trade?

-Deters countries from breaking agreements with the threat of economic repercussions. -authorize retaliation for violation of trade rules, defendants required to participate

Why is it rational for individuals to overuse public goods?

-Divergence between private benefits and social costs: -Individually rational for people states to consume, but diffused costs to society insufficient to prevent overuse -Resource gets depleted

How did this aid help facilitate the construction of this international agreement? And how might this aid help countries fulfill their emission targets?

-Ease costs of alternative energies -Compensate for the costs of climate change -Developed nations have spent centuries wrecking the environment because they have already experienced an industrial revolution, they also consume way more resources than developing nations; while developing nations seem more polluted in air quality they realistically contribute very little to climate change as compared to north america and europe; they are also more likely to be hurt by climate change than developed nations

How do the factors that contribute to democracy's influence over foreign policy in general - electoral constraints, institutional constraints on power such as checks and balances, and a shared democratic identity - help to explain, in particular, peaceful relations between democracies?

-Electoral constraints discourage politicians from going to war as wars are costly and the public can vote politicians out of office if wars turn bad (leaders will only fight wars they think they can win). -Institutional constraints on power (like checks and balances) help to solve the commitment problem by preventing countries from pulling out of agreements and ensuring that they uphold their commitments (Difficult to leave bc of lobbying efforts from supporters and getting everyone to leave treaty is tough). -Also, a shared democratic identity helps to foster trust among democracies and prevent war.

8. What is the Bretton Woods economic order?

-Emerges in final stages of WWII (1944) -US supports creation of international orgs to ensure economic growth through international trade. -Organizations with institutional precursors set up among allied states post great depression

How does this phenomenon help to explain the difficulty of managing the sustainable use of commonly held public property? Know some examples.

-Emerges with public property or resources for which it is difficult (costly) to restrict their use (consumption) -absence of property rights leads to overuse of the resource and limited individual incentives to conserve undermine the broader natural resource -Examples: oil fields, common grazing lands, overpopulation, fisheries, atmosphere

9. Describe the main elements of international economic cooperation.

-Enforcement mechanisms to deter states from cheating which takes in the form of withdrawing economic concessions that have been promised -Cooperation because joining an organization signals FP interests, it requires concessions that are costly domestically for future government policies that reduce uncertainty that it might change policies in the future

6. What did President Trump and Kim Jong Un agree to at the Singapore Summit in June 2018? What was the main problem critics highlighted about the results of this summit?

-Establish new US-DPRK relations -Will build stable peace regime on Korean Peninsula -DPRK will work towards "complete denuclearization" -Will work on recovering POW/MIA remains -End of nuclear tests; close main facility -Main problems was what was definition of denuclearization to both; very different it seemed; didn't resemble a deal that would get rid of weapons

4. Watch the Jon Stewart video clip on the United Nations and explain his critique of the United Nations. Why is this critique "funny but wrong" according to lecture?

-Even though Jon Stewart critiques the UN for not being effective with setting rules, the UN actually holds international legitimacy on a set of foreign policy actions

How can exchange rate changes influence trade policy?

-Exchange rates can influence policy by encouraging economic interests like export-oriented firms or businesses facing foreign competition to lobby the government to change its trade policy. - For instance, manufacturers facing foreign competition in the U.S.A. may lobby Congress for more tariffs in order to protect their businesses from cheaper goods from China -Exporting firms seem to like falling dollar, because it makes their exports cheaper to foreign customers.

9. Which group of countries will be the recipients of foreign aid under the Paris Climate Accord?

-Foreign aid from developed to developing countries

What are the main organizations that emerged from Bretton Woods?

-GATT (WTO) -International Monetary Fund -International Bank Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank).

What do states like the U.S. gain and lose from participation in international organizations?

-Gain of legitimacy for the policy and security of additional support to implement policies BUT can require some surrender of sovereignty or authority of elected officials (surrendering democratic control)

How does the collective action problem help to explain this gap?

-Gap between high number of people agreeing that immigration makes America better and then low number of people in support of liberalization of immigration policies. -The collective action problem explains this gap because lots of people want the benefits, but no one wants to pay the cost of obtaining the benefits. -Collective Action Problem: -Powerful interest groups with less people benefit from immigration (lower labor cost)(AgricultureTech) -But cost of immigration is diffused among all groups, so collective action problem ensues

10. What is the GATT? What is the WTO? How does these organizations differ?

-General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT). This agreement regulated international trade until its replacement in 1995 by the World Trade Organization. -The GATT/WTO system is structured around the principles of non-discrimination, meaning that "like" products should not be treated differently based on country of origin, and reciprocity, which means that when member countries receive concessions, in the form of greater market access, from their trading partners they are expected to extend similar concessions in return. These principles suggest that the liberalization of trade should be self-perpetuating.

5. How can global capital markets discipline or influence the economic policy of governments?

-Global capital markets can punish governments by selling their assets denominated in that country's currency or selling government bonds, if they don't like government policy or whatever. -This decreases demand for the national currency, causing it to devalue. -This makes it harder for the country to purchase loans (because their purchasing power/currency value is down) and then forces that country to adopt policy like cutting spending (austerity), raising taxes, or raising interest rates. -When foreign capital holders lose confidence in a government's monetary policy, they tend to sell assets denominated in that currency -Raises government's borrowing costs -Limiting discretion of elected officials and forcing them to push their economy into recession to reassure creditors

5. According to this module's reading (Chapter 20, Great Power Politics), what is hegemonic stability theory.

-HST states that the concentration of global economic activity in a single state, the hegemon, stimulates high levels of trade among all states in the international economy. -This is through the self-interested economic leadership of the hegemon. -Because a significant proportion of total global economic activity occurs within the hegemon, it cannot remain insulated from the costs of global economic slowdowns or recessions. -High levels of economic activity in the hegemon also help make its currency a principal means of exchange throughout the global economy. -In this way, financial leadership by the hegemon promotes international trade by reducing exchange rate risks. -Can also use economic power as political power to pressure other governments into opening their domestic markets to international trade. . -Hegemon facilitates globalization, peace, and the provision of public goods. -If there is no hegemon, states compete, conduct wars, and impose trade restrictions.

3. How does U.S. membership in international organizations like the UN, NATO, and WTO demonstrate the ability of international institutions to solve a fundamental problem of international politics - to create and preserve coercive power and, at the same time, constrain that same power?

-IO's like UN, NATO, and WTO help to promote and defend policy ideas consistent with American interests like democracy promotion, free trade, respect for human rights, and the construction of an affective collective security organization. -Ikenberry: US entry into international organizations helps to solve fundamental problem of politics at international level, but bc it is multilateral other states can work to check or constrain american policy when they oppose it.

7. How does international migration intersect with national security?

-Immigration raises fears of infiltration by terrorists through lack of regulation -Leads to calls for stricter control/regulation of access through borders, especially of refugees and migrants from countries experiencing war (Trump travel ban) -Can show the weakness and strength of a country and its ability to hold borders

Module 22: Finance and US Foreign Policy 1. What does globalization in financial terms look like?

-In financial terms, globalization = increased trade and capital flows as well as the lowering of trade barriers. Other countries begin to care about the economic growth and policy of other countries. -Globalization connects global markets. It generates economic growth, can reverberate recessions, and fosters peace between states. It connects markets through imports and exports of capital.

3. If trade makes states wealthier, wthy is there political resistance to globalization?

-In globalization, there are winners and losers. -Winners are those that have a resource in abundance (abundance means production costs are lower, so more goods can be produced for lower costs, leading more sales) and losers have a scarcity of resources. -Losers can have their wages cut or their jobs eliminated, so they resist globalization and press lawmakers to draft protectionist policies.

Once international agreements are established, what types of problems of compliance and enforcement do international organizations face?

-In the absence of a single enforcer, a group of states can provide enforcement. However, each country would like to enjoy the benefits of enforcement without having to pay the cost. Yet if all countries try to shirk the responsibility of providing enforcement, enforcement is under-provided, and would- be aggressors may pursue their goals without fear of reprisal. Given these incentives, establishing credible enforcement is a challenge -In other issue areas, enforcement involves large-scale costs that can make states reluctant to trigger penalties for non-compliant states. For example, if international organizations want to put economic sanctions to punish a country that broke an international agreement/law, sanctions could be costly. Moreover, sanctions sometimes fail to produce the desired behavioral change.

What is the difference between institutions and organizations?

-Institutions: rules of society or humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction; provide incentives for behaving, incentives for human exchange, whether political, social or econ -Organizations: act/enforce rules; can have rules that govern their internal working and external relations; these rules are institutions, not organizations Ex. domestic institutions: electoral rule, legislative rule, federalism, constitutions, etc. -Congress is an organization, but the rules governing when a debate on a bill can close, etc. are institutions -Intl institutions can be sovereignty as legal recognitions by other states (possissing legal rights to set laws), trade liberalization (reducing tariffs))

Module 19: The United States and International Organizations and Institutions 1. What are institutions?

-International institutions are the "rules of the game" that shape how states interact. -They include rules codified (arranged) in treaties, which are documents that create legal obligations for state, as well as norms, which are tacit or unstated, but widely understood standards of behavior that shape states' expectations about their interactions.

2. Discuss the global patterns of international migration. What are the countries with the largest inflows of international migration and which countries have the largest inflows of refugees?

-International migration has increased dramatically over recent decades with a net flow from less developed to more developed countries -US, Saudi Arabia and Germany are top receiving countries -India, Mexico, Russia and China are top sending countries -US is the largest receiving countries of international migration in numbers -migrants make up a greater share of total population in other countries like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Canada (by percentage) -Refugees tend to flee to smaller surrounding states -Turkey has the phattest inflow of refugees (forced migration). Typically poor developing nations are forced to bear the -burden of forced migration people -Trend for Voluntary Migration: From less developed countries to moredeveloped countries -Trend for Forced Migration: Usually flows to countries nearby-Turkey and Germany, Lebanon, and Jordan have the largest inflows of refugees

4. How is international migration a part of the broader phenomenon of globalization?

-International migration is similar to globalization in terms of labor supply market (works like market for goods). -Like trade barriers (tariffs), immigration policy can increase the barriers for labor thus increase amount of labor supply in a gov (more labor supply = lower wages, less Ls = higher wages). -As the increased movement of goods and services through international trade increases the aggregate wealth of countries, the movement of labor across national borders also increases economic growth in the aggregate

6. According to this module's reading, what is the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma? How does it create tradeoffs in a country's exchange rate policies?

-Mundell-Fleming Trilemma is the concept that states in the international system must choose only two of the following based on relative tradeoffs 1) exchange rate stability 2) capital mobility (easy to send $ btw counties) 3) monetary policy autonomy (central bank's ability to conduct monetary policy without political interference) -can't have all 3 - It forces countries to make decisions about their economic policy -the United States allows the dollar to float (no ER stability) in exchange for monetary policy autonomy and capital mobility. --The reasoning is that the dollar's value changes slowly and the U.S. economy is thicc enough to absorb any changes in the dollar's value.

5. What are the Cold War origins of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)?

-NATO was formed as a collective security organization meant to counter the Soviet threat in eastern Europe (the threat of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact). - NATO alliance chief function during the Cold War was to provide military security for western Europe against the possibility of a Soviet attack, consisted of many multi-faceted benefits commitments it enacted

3. What are some critiques of the democratic peace theory?

-One critique is that after World War II, peace was upheld by the great power settlement between the U.S. and the USSR; both sides maintained peace within their own spheres of influence and also possessed nuclear weapons (Mutually Assured Destruction→ very very frightening). -Another is that during the Cold War, peace was only preserved because Western European states had a common enemy in the Soviet Union. -One more reason was states that were transitioning to democracy ((new democracies essentially) from autocracy) were more likely to go to war than established autocracies.

How are efforts at global governance confronted by the collective action problem?

-Overcoming collective action problem in global governance often prove quite difficult for several reasons. -First, the problem of distributing the burden of collective goods provision can activate intense struggles among interested parties, both within and between states. -The second problem for states or groups of states is one of enforcement, or the punishment for noncompliance.

How does the distribution of power between great powers influence their relations?

-Polarity helps determine the alliances and distributions of power that will exist in the international system socially, economically, and militarily -The distribution of power can set the level of threat between states -Helps understand great power relations -Sets coalitional dynamics and risks associated with coalitional realignments

11. What is the International Monetary Fund? What are its main functions?

-Pool of capital created by member countries, set up to provide international liquidity, limit exchange rate fluctuations, help governments in exchange rate crisis stabilize reserves with loans.

4. How can power transition theory be used to understand the evolution of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea?

-Power transition theory explains how a country which has gained hegemonic power and a great power country may go to war. -Tensions are because of chinese actions--they are building islands in south china sea. Putting sand on reefs that support commercial and military developments. -US fears that China may use these to reinforce claims to the islands, and assert right to exclusively control the area, already claimed as sovereign to china. -Because China is asserting itself, it is a growing power that will challenge US' unipolarity, and thus may spark a war. -Decreases in American Military presence in the area would lead to Chinese control of the region -this why the US constantly has at least Aircraft carrier in the region, acting as a deterrent to Chinese expansion and to protect local ally's claim to the territory. -US conducts naval exercises; passing ships within 12 miles of islands to demonstrate that the US doesn't recognize China's claims to the islands. (Seen as a provocation to China)

3. Why is there a gap between public opinion regarding the preferred levels of immigration and immigration policies adopted by democracies?

-Public opinion tends to want less immigration. -Increased immigration causes increased competition for jobs that negatively impacts current residents/citizens. -Immigrants are many years from obtaining citizenship and the vote, but that is a long-term cost associated with immigraiton (for the party that believes it will receive fewer of the votes). -Accepting those leaving due to forced-migration causes the country to take on increased economic burdens (schools, medicine, road use) for helping refugees that do not contribute in taxes... the reverse is that immigrants who come legally tend to contribute more resources to the country than they take. -Smaller groups are better able to mobilize and affect policy -Agriculture benefit from migration (winners, lower labor costs) -labor and taxpayers (losers) -In the US, immigration policy is closely tied topartisanship. How will immigrants vote? (distribution of latino votes between parties) -Republicans worry that majority will vote for Democrats -Permanent political status as minority party in key electoral states like Texas and Florida.

5. What are remittances? How do remittances help to redistribute wealth from wealthy countries to poorer ones?

-Remittances: money sent from migrants to family/friends back home -Example of thicc capital transfers across national borders -Represents a redistribution of wealth from developed to developing countries There are advantages over other kinds of wealth transfer -Family transfers are not withdrawn and are sent unconditionally -It avoids government structure, so it avoids possible corruption and overhead costs —> So better than foreign aid, bc directly to hand of those who need it most -It is a valuable form of social insurance, credit and investment in countries that lack these markets

10. What is a Nationally Determined Contribution?

-Set nationally and voluntary, and not negotiated internationally -EU: pledged to reduce emissions by 40% in 2030 from 1990, set legally binding target in October 2014 already down 19% -US: reduce emissions by 26-28% by 2025 from 2000, this is 16.3% reduction -relies on Obama EPA restrictions -depends on executive orders -Trump reverses EPA executive order in March 2017 China: pledges peak emissions by 2030, cut CO2 by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030 from 2005, boost non fossil fuels to 20% Not strong enough yet: all current pledges would still leave 2030 emissions too high to stay under 2 degree mark

How do these demographic changes create conflict within countries over issues of national identity?

-Shakes the middle class as fear of losing jobs and identity creates a call to action. -People considered the national language, religion, etc. important to national identity -These social/racial/cultural changes cause fear of losing these dominance -Majority ethnic groups may feel their privileged social status and dominant political power are under threat because immigration introduces new minority groups that may not share their values -In US, this is manifest in debates over English as primary language and national identity rooted in Anglo-Protestant culture -In Europe, manifest largely over concerns over Muslim immigration. These concerns are demonstrated by strong public sentiment that knowing the national language and identifying as a Christian is important to national identity.

What are some of the political solutions to the collective action problem in the case of carbon dioxide emissions?

-Solutions could be enforcement mechanisms that punish people that don't contribute or compensation for countries/industries that would lose under climate change laws. -Large actors provide public good on own -International agreement to punish noncompliance -Markets undersupply public goods, necessity of international agreement

7. According to the reading (Chapter 20: Global Governance), what are the incentives for global governance through international institutions?

-States have incentives for global governance because of negative externalities, high transaction costs, and collective action problems. - externalities (costs or benefits that accrue to parties that are not directly involved in the interactions between states)- outside parties often have distributional stake in the outcomes of events (such as the formation of new trade agreements) -rather than renegotiating forms of cooperation time after time, states may establish forms of multilateral governance (in other words: form a general set or rules) to reduce transaction costs (costs associated with negotiating and establishing any form of agreement)

How do shifts in exchange rates alter patterns of imports and exports?

-States with strong exchange rates see their exports decrease because the stronger value of their currency means their currency is worth more relative to other currencies, so their prices are then relatively higher too. At the same time, their imports increase because they can buy more stuff with the money they have (because it's worth more). -States with weak exchange rates (like China) enjoy increased exports because their goods are relatively cheaper. -As the dollar appreciates, imports from the foreign country becomes cheaper, so they tend to increase. -It is the opposite when the dollar depreciates.

6. What is the Paris climate accord?

-The Paris Climate Accord is a multilateral agreement between 190+ developed and developing countries, that aims to: - reduce carbon emissions -give developing countries a route out of poverty -mitigate climate change -limit the increase in global temperature increases to 2 degrees celsius from pre-Industrial Revolution levels..

2. What is the Ricardian model of trade? Describe the processes by which it suggests that trade and specialization can increase aggregate national income.

-The Ricardian model of trade emphasizes the comparative advantage and specialization in trade. -Through specialization, states choose the good that provides the highest efficiency gains and then trades it for goods that are more expensive to produce domestically -This allows the state to increase its national income at the aggregate (overall) level.

6. What is the TPP?

-The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement among 12 countries meant to lower trade barriers and increase trade flows. -Accounts for 40% of the world's GDP

How should the U.S. respond to Chinese challenges in the South China Sea?

-The U.S. should not confront China at every turn but instead build its power and influence in other regions outside of China. -Must enhance rather than retreat from the liberal international order it built after World War II

Why does the United States participate in the United Nations and often abide by its decisions when it could just ignore it instead (because it possesses much greater military capacity than the UN)?

-The US participates in the UN because it is a powerful source of legitimacy abroad and at home for contreversial polices (e.g. US seeks approval for Iraq was in 2003), -UN reflects global public opinion which makes it easier to gain allies with this support, -the domestic public are more likely to support policies that have UN approval

Module 21: Globalization and US Trade Policy 1. According to the reading (Chapter 25: Globalization), what are the chief indicators of the increase of globalization since World War II?

-The chief indicators of increased globalization since World War II: are the rise of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and the WTO (World Trade Organization) and the subsequent lowering of tariffs. -The rise of the Internet is another reason as it allows long distance access to trade services. -Growth of imports and exports - The growing movement of people through immigration also indicates the integration of labor markets -Barriers to international commerce erode -Volume of economic transactions increase; -International trade has led to an increase in economic activity

4. What are the domestic distributional consequences of globalization?

-The domestic distributional consequences of globalization are that some win and some lose. -Winners receive economic benefits from increased trade but losers see wage cuts and job losses.

2. What is an exchange rate?

-The exchange rate captures the price at which one currency can be used to buy another.

5. What does Prime Minister Boris Johnson hope to accomplish in the December 12th election in regards to Brexit?

-want strong majority in parliment so his plan can get pushed through -NEEDS a majority -hopes to break the deadlock

how does hegemonic stability theory relate to the provision of public goods and the free rider problem in international relations?

-The hegemon provides public goods, or non-excludable and non-rivalrous commodities like international economic stability, and the protection of global commons such as sea lanes and the environment. -International powers free ride on the contribution of the hegemon, which is what Trump argues is wrong with the NATO alliance. -The US supplies most of the political and economic support, and its poorest members in Eastern Europe who are threatened by Russia contribute very little. -Domestically, the free rider problem is resolved by coercive action of a state, or the collection of taxes. -Internationally, large actors voluntarily absorb costs of public goods on own because they cannot acquire sufficient compensatory benefits and lack supranational authority, unlike states that can coerce contributions.

2. What is the tragedy of the commons?

-The tragedy of the commons details how individuals do not make careful decisions with common or public property like the oceans, oil fields, grazing lands, and overpopulation. -This is and will still see the same amount of pollution/destruction regardless of their own contribution.

How might it be applied to the challenges of managing climate change?

-These attributes activate free rider problem -Free riding as failing to limit own carbon dioxide emissions CO2 cuts as a public good: costly to exclude countries (and their citizens) from consuming once supplied

What causes shifts in the distribution of power among great powers and how can they alter the larger international political order and heighten the risks of war?

-These changes can happen because a rising state may experience economic growth or spend more on the military. -It can also happen if a dominant state is no longer willing to shoulder the costs of being dominant (some people don't want to pay for all that phat military spending). -War is more likely because the rising state will become more assertive and try to make changes (*cough* *cough* CHINA (specifically military expansion in the South China Sea, effectively trying to change the current dynamics of power in that region)) -the declining state will become more confrontational in an attempt to preserve the current international order/status quo. -This tension can spill over into war

5. How do trade and globalization shape political relations and order in the international system?

-Trade and globalization make war and colonialism ineffective -trade and globalization allow for access to other countries' markets without violence -the growing density of commercial interactions creates a demand for global governance to mitigate the impact of negative externalities and coordinate policy -Rising levels of income and wealth also facilitate the rise of democracy.

How does trade contribute to the economic sources of order in the international system?

-Trade contributes to the economic sources of order in the international system by increasing individual liberties. -Wealth can also translate into political influence. -Specialization and international trade increases a state's national income -The desire to get economic gains from trade leads to cooperative international agreements; -Heightened economic competition activates economic and political backlash that tries to limit market pressures and reassert control over economic outcomes

how has the Trump administration addressed these dilemmas facing NATO?

-Trump and his administration have threatened to no longer uphold Article V within NATO which states that an attack on any NATO country is considered an attack on all NATO countries if the EU countries in NATO don't up their military spending to their obligated levels

7. Describe some important steps in the emerging trade war between China and the United States.

-Trump imposed new tariffs on steel and aluminum (didn't exempt China). China responds with tariffs on $3 billion US imports (fruits, nuts, wine, and pork) -Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on up to 1300 Chinese products (machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment) Potentially cut $50 billion of Chinese exports -China targeting sectors that are important to Trump's political base like blue collar manufacturing and agriculture in red states like Texas Tuesday (4/17): China new fees (tariffs) on sorghum exports from US -About $1 billion; production concentrated in Kansas and Texas -Imposing economic pain on them so pressure Trump to change his policies

Why did President Trump formally withdraw the United States from the TPP in 2017?

-Trump left the TPP because he and others feared the loss of American manufacturing jobs (as did Clinton and Bernie).

Why did he consider rejoining the TPP in 2018?

-Trump wanted to rejoin the TPP in order to curb Chinese political influence in southeast asia and divert it back towards the United States. -the wanted to find a new market for agricultural goods, because trade war with China messed that up, so farmers wanted to either end trade war or find a new place to sell their goods -Because of his trade war with China. TPP is largely anti growing Chinese trade hegemon

2. What is power transition theory?

-War is caused by shifts in great powers capabilities -changes in the distribution of power between countries will destabilize the international order and increase the chance for war.

5. Describe some of the efforts by the United States to promote democracy around the world.

-Wilson sought to leverage American participation in WWI to expand democracies in the world -promoting democracy took a back seat after WWII>primarily to contain communism -United States used democracy promotion in Germany and Japan after WWI -The end of the cold war was a boom for democracy promotion and democracy promotes greater security for the US -After the Cold War, Clinton intervened in Yugoslavia under humanitarian grounds (to stop genocide) with the goal of democracy promotion -Iraq: Bush (neo-conservatives) with regime change and democracy promotion in the Middle East was his strategy of countering terrorism after 911 resulted in invasion through military forces

3. What is an externality?

-a side effect or consequence of an industrial or commercial activity that affects 3rd parties without this being reflected in the cost of the goods or services involved -In economics, an externality is the cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit. -ex. pollination of surrounding crops by bees kept for honey. -ex. Air pollution from motor vehicles is negative externality. The costs of the air pollution for the rest of society is not compensated for by either the producers or users of motorized transport.

INN@UT #6 (11/19/19): Updates on this semester's news stories 1. Describe the differences in the way that Democratic Representative Adam Schiff characterized the impeachment inquiry and the way that Republican Representative Devan Nunes characterized the impeachment inquiry in their opening statements.

-democratic representative adam schiff -est how serious this issue is -ukraine is fighting for life against russia -seriousness of Ukraine's security vulnerability and importance to us -protecting ukraine is importnat, trump used ukraine in corrupt way to sway election -trump abused power, unacceptable -republic representative -impeachment as illegitimate -just the latest attempt by democrats to reverse the election results and remove trump from power -democrats just turning to next thing they can hold onto -dems misuing oversight responsibiltlies

the possible causes of these waves such as demonstration effects, neighborhood effects, conditionality of international organizations, and the influence of hegemons.

-demonstration effects -created by significant mass events that successfully challenge autocratic regimes -Opposition leaders and mass publics in other countries want to emulate the same actions and outcomes -Contagion of mass protest -regionally concentrated (undermining one regional dictator undermines them all; share similar identities and conditions) -Ex: Fall of Berlin Wall -neighborhood effects -States tend to emulate the level of democracy of their neighboring states -conditionality of international organizations -to join certain international organizations states must adopt democratic reforms to enjoy the economic and political benefits of membership -the influence of hegemons -Cold war: democracy vs. communism

What are the main environmental consequences that scientists fear will result from climate change?

-environmentally, the most prevalent change is the rising oceans (temperature). -As land ice melts, the oceans rise -Drought? More extreme weather patterns? - Ice sheets melting, ocean levels rising• -What do with low lying population centers? - Ocean temperatures rising

8. What is the status of renewed talks between the United States and North Korea regarding North Korea's nuclear program?

-failed hanoi summit -have been trying to restart talks ever since -us wants to talk/reopen negotiations, nk resisting

How did Senate Republicans, like Lindsey Graham, react to this visit?

-not over trump's actions in syria -strong mistrust by republican senators towards erdogan

Why do both the United States and China have incentives to make this deal?

-phase one deal -both want assurances on what they want will happen -market + economy could use this deal, certain sectors have suffered under chinese tariffs -stock markets have rebounded, us has hit record highs b/c of this deal (not all tho) -good signals

How might international economic organizations, like the WTO and the IMF, facilitate economic cooperation among states and higher levels of international trade?

-provide enforcement mechanisms -WTO: judicial panel → Judicial panel can enforce trade obligations by authorizing compensation to injured party in form of trade sanctions -IMF: conditionality → insistent on conditions and disburse loans in series of payments, IMF stops giving them money if they don't bide by the conditions -Helping to reveal information about state interests -monitor compliance -reducing distributional challenges

Module 23: The Environment and US Foreign Policy 1. What is the basic scientific claim about the causes and extent of climate change?

-since the industrial revolution, the amount or volume of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased drastically. -CO2 is a heat trapping gas and although it can be created without human intervention, anthropomorphic forcing (or humanity's addition of CO2) is dramatically increasing. -From 280 ppm in 1800 to 400 ppm in 2015 -Average global temperatures +5.5 degrees F. from 1800 to 2050 at current rate of CO2 emissions

2. What are the central arguments in favor of impeachment made by Democrats in light of the testimonies provided on the first day of public hearings in the impeachment inquiry?

-testimony demonstrates that there was a concerted effort to pressure and entice ukraine to publicly launch investigations -call of trump asking for favor and following up on what he asked -pretty damning evidence -long-term plan to pressure ukraine -new evidence put trump at center of quid pro quo scheme

INN@UT #5 (11/4/19): The North Korean nuclear weapons program 1. Why does North Korea want to acquire and maintain its nuclear weapon program?

-their own protection/regime survival = proven nuclear capabilities at the world stage; doesn't want regime change from US (offset military advantage of them) -they can prevent future attack from south korea and Japan

7. What has President Trump signaled by not rescinding the invitation for a White House visit to Turkey's President Erdogan after Turkey's attack on Kurdish militias?

-turkey facing backlash on attacks on kurds -ppl r like wtf why wouldn't u cancel the meeting -trump says there will be ceasefire -highly criticized visit b/c ppl thikn the turkish pres is a cruel dictator that has killed many -on top of critiques of trump taking out troops in turkey -signals that trump is ok with turkey attacking kurds

3. What are the central arguments against impeachment made by Republicans in light of the testimonies provided on the first day of public hearings in the impeachment inquiry?

-ukraine didn't feel pressure to do anything by trump -investigations never happened -democrats argue "attempted crime still crime" -quid pro "so" -no quid pro quo -military aid given to ukraine did no launch investigations that trump supposedly required of them to get aid -pressure applied to ukraine to get military aid : should trump be impeached just for ATTEMPTING even if he wasn't ultimately sucessful (democrats say yes, repubs say nah) -these revelations haven't shifted public opinion on this topic -partisan divide still present

What has been North Korea's response to American gestures such as the suspension of military exercises with South Korea?

-until us ease sanctions on nk they won't go back to negotiating table -nk reject idea and gave us to the end of the yr to show greater flexibility and adopt a "fresh approach" -nk wants sanction reliegs in exchange for limits on nuclear program -us wants nk to dismantle nuke program -these two ideas far apart

Module 24: Immigration Policy 1. What are the main differences between voluntary and forced migration?

-voluntary migration is migration for personal gain, like a higher paying job or to be with friends and family. -Forced migration is migration due to war, persecution, or natural disaster. Also, forced migration has human smuggling, which involves a third party (those doing the smuggling) and involves sex and labor slaves.

What did Lord Ismay mean when he said the goal of NATO was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"?

1) "Keep the Russians out"- NATO as the pillar to American-led containment of the Soviet threat -protection from conventional and nuclear attack -cornerstone of peace and prosperity 2) "the Americans in"- NATO as a binding mechanism for American military power -american-led alliance provided a necessary hegemon for the collective security arrangement -the US provided essential public goods like military might -NATO forced them to act multilaterally rather than unilaterally when taking into account foreign allies and debating foreign policies and military action 3) "the Germans down"- NATO's role in maintaining peace between the democratic powers in Europe by integrating them into an alliance that was lead by an outsider (US)

5. What are the three different distributional struggles related to the problem of climate change?

1) struggle within society -Coal versus solar; Oil versus general public 2) struggle within countries -which nations will shoulder the costs of environmental change -debate of developed or developing countries. -climate change reform can create winners and losers -Losers could be fossil fuel firms and winners can be those with investments in renewable energy. -Developed (US and Europe) versus Developing (BRIC: Brazil, China, India, Russia) -Variation in carbon emissions across countries means different levels of preparedness for changes -US: carbon consumption in electricity, transportation, industry -Europe: less in transportation -Industry (and carbon emissions) shifting to developing world; caps would impede their growth 2) struggle between generations -politicians today attempt to push the reformation of the climate change issue down the road, forcing upcoming generations to shoulder the cost (even if they haven't been born or can't vote yet!).

6. What are the two main dilemmas facing NATO?

1)European states are shirking the costs of their own defense (underspending on defense) 2) U.S. is a reluctant hegemon within NATO (being powerful is expensive; it takes more than a small loan of a million dollars to maintain the biggest military on planet earth and provide defense for numerous European countries that are literally an ocean away).

Describe Robert Dahl's three "procedural minimal" conditions of democracy.

1. Public contestation which sees that multiple parties participate in the election and citizens have the right to freely express themselves, form organizations, and receive information from them in the media. 2. Inclusion which sees that all segments of societies participate equally; suffrage is universal and equal. "You get a vote, you get a vote, we all get a voteeee" - Oprah probably 3. Democratic sovereignty which makes sure that elections result in meaningful elections for truly powerful decision making bodies. U.S. Senate elections are a good example because Senators make meaningful decisions like going to war or confirming individuals to high offices of power. Also that religious and/or military leaders aren't behind the decision making.

What are the benefits and drawbacks associated with promoting democracy around the world?

Benefits - democratic peace theory -other democracies means that there is less chance for war, more stable world order, more cooperation and partnerships for trade, leading to peace. -This means that it is in the interestof big democracies to promote moredemocracies. Drawbacks -political and economic costs of democracy promotion (interventions are expensive). -Can cause people to distrust democracies b/c it is often achieved thru military intervention -The US promoting democracy in places like latin america during the cold war gave the US abad rep because of the CIA constantly intervening in elections (made latin america almost frightened of the US) -Cost is a huge drawback when it comes to democracy promotion, as the bill racks up when you start promoting democracy in every country that you deem it necessary -you take away some of the autonomy and sovereignty of a nation when you determine that their way of running things is not the correct way, and try to promote your own system -it probably pisses a lot of other countries off when the US comes in and tells them (or in a lot of cases, forces them) how to run their country. So the drawback would be the resentment other countries feel toward theUnited States.

6. Using the module's reading, describe historical waves of democracy and the possible causes of these waves such as demonstration effects, neighborhood effects, conditionality of international organizations, and the influence of hegemons.

Democracy has historically emerged in waves -these transitions away from authoritarian rule tend to be regionally concentrated and at the same span of time -each wave is followed by a reverse wave in which democracies broke down 1) 19th century and beginning of 20th century leading up to WWI -Democracy remained rare around the world -Democracies emerge primarily in Europe and in US -Very few compared non-democratic regimes -Reverse wave: interwar period between WWI and WWII w/ breakdown of democracies and rise of dictators in Germany and Italy 2.) After WWII -Autocratic Russia collapsed but replaced with communism -Second short wave of democracy followed WWII: -Western Europe influenced by American hegemony -emergence of dem in West Germany, Italy, Japan, and Austria -Democratic promotion experiments in latin america -Reverse: in 1960s and 1970s breakdown of democracies in latin america, emergence of dictatorships in the region 3.) Beginning of the 1970s -Democratization of Spain, Portugal, andGreece -Collapse of military rule in Latin America -end of 1980s collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and Soviet Union (most tried democracy at first but ended up autocratic -Reverse: Some argue it is happening now as Russia returns to authoritarian rule

What are some examples of institutions in domestic and international politics?

EXAMPLES OF INSTITUTIONS: Domestic: e.g. don't speed, win majority of electoral college votes to be POTUS International: sovereignty (once states recognize other states as independent members of the international system, simultaneously give them rules of sovereignty AKA don't interfere with political outcomes, respect boundaries etc.) EXAMPLES OF ORGANIZATIONS: United Nations North American Treaty Organization (NATO) World Trade Organization (WTO)

How does the international flow of labor through international migration create winners and losers within domestic economies?

It can create winners and losers because some sectors benefit from more lax migration policy (like hi tech and agricultural firms). WINNERS -High tech wants to employ high skilled workers to keep costs down -agriculture, construction, and service (hotels and restaurants) wants to employ low skilled foreigners to keep labor costs down (high tech firms oppose Trump's travel ban) -Lower labor costs also benefit consumers through lower prices and can increase economic growth. -Migrants also increase demand for goods, spurring economic growth LOSERS -But, the costs of immigration are borne by unskilled workers (labor unions) and taxpayers. By pushing labor supply up in certain sectors, real wages are driven down. -immigrants can also present a cost through increased consumption of social services like schools, public safety, and health care that are paid through taxes

Why does the U.S. have so much influence within the IMF?

It has the biggest share in the IMF 16.2%

What is the tension between the United States and international organizations?

Might need to gain legitimacy for policy, secure additional support to implement policies, but can require some surrender of sovereignty or authority of elected officials in US to set policy of the United States

7. According to Urpelainen, what are the pros and cons of the Paris climate accord?

Pros -Includes both developed and developing countries -New voluntary approach: no binding agreements -- instead, voluntary national targets, which are more realistic -Addresses needs of developing countries: has $100 billion in "climate finance" to help developing countries fund development without contributing to climate change -necessary and positive first step but more should be done -Broad collective agreement: Kyoto Protocol (previous agreement) only had emissions reductions for developed countries, while Paris includes developed and developing Cons -Has a slight challenge in executing the accord, there is no enforcement mechanism -Needs to deepen, current members alone will not completely mitigate climate change. This is a good first step, but only a first step. Current target won't get job done -Requires participation from US and China for real impact (highest emissions producers)

4. Why did the heightened tensions and threats between Trump and Kim in early 2017 not result in a war between the U.S. and North Korea?

T-hey got each other to stand down and offer concessions because both didn't want to go to war/both had bad military options and didn't want thousands dead

What is the difference between unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems and how does each affect relations between great powers?

Unipolar denotes one great power rules them all this is the most peaceful arrangement of power. This is because the single great power goes unchallenged as any state that challenges that great power would likely get c l a p p e d economically and/or militarily and nothing would change (so why try lol). Similar to the USA after the collapse of the USSR. Bi-polar: Denotes there are 2 great powers (like the Cold War - U.S.A vs. U.S.S.R.) and they can share military power helps eliminate risks of abandonment if one of the powers falls. If a weak ally leaves a great power, not much will change because the distribution of two great powers wouldn't change all that much (if a state like Italy had dropped out of NATO, the distribution of power between the U.S. and U.S.S.R wouldn't change too much, both states would still have the capacity to end civilization multiple times over because nukes lol). War isn't very likely. Multi-Polar: There are more than 4 great powers in a system. Highest chance of war. Alliances are actually important, but they're fluid (can change). Think WW2. Rival great powers try to create dissention among rival alliances and work to get other states to change sides.

2. Understand, explain, and give examples of how international institutions shape international politics through the following mechanisms: a) guiding behavior and shaping expectations; b) providing information about state interests and incentives to comply; c) allocating and generating power for states.

a) Important Rules: -Sovereignty as legal recognition (by other states) of a government's right to regulate people (set laws for them) living within set territorial boundaries -Trade Liberalization- grant access of foreign companies to domestic markets--facilitates the expansion of globalization and commerce (WTO, a regulator)Organizations, like WTO and UN, matter in global politics because they sometimes possess the capacity to enforce the rules that they are designed to promote -enforcement capacity- an organization possesses the means to punish a member state if it violates the organization's policy (WTO has this power); problem: if IO does not possess means to enforce (think UN) and has to delegate authority to enforce to states-- can mean effective end to IO e.g. League of Nations b) Provision of info helps to reduce uncertainty about a state's future behavior, which can encourage cooperation among states in the future -examples: Chinese entry in WTO - china had to comply with the concessions of entry for gaining better access to american domestic market; weapons inspectors -check for compliance c) Creating new international law, IO's can rely on their rules to build up their own power to influence states (Judicial activism of WTO) -Setting a specific agenda, rules among IO's allocate power among states by influencing the capacity of these member states (Veto power of UN Security Council)