Intro to Earth

Peak Demand

'When will demand for oil begin to decline in response to competing marketplace forces and result in persistent oil price declines

Creation of an oil or gas reserve requires four features.

(1) A source rock, where the hydrocarbons are created. The source rock is usually a shale that contains a large quantity of organic material. (2) A migration pathway, that allows the hydrocarbons to flow upward through the rock formations. This may be fractures in the rock, or pore spaces between mineral grains in the rock. (3) A reservoir rock, which is where the hydrocarbons are trapped and stored. The reservoir rock is usually a porous and/or fractured sandstone, which has lots of open space to store oil and gas. (4) A trap, which keeps the oil or gas in the reservoir rock - it prevents the escape of the hydrocarbons. Traps usually involve a seal rock, which is unfractured with low porosity and low permeability.

Hubbert statistical analysis to argue that the production of any natural resource under free market (prices determined by unrestricted competition) conditions could be predicted to

(1) first grow slowly in response to low demand and technology for removal of the resource, (2) and to quickly in response to rapid development of resource demand and improved extraction technologies (3) peak in production at the point when discovery of new reserves failed to keep pace with expanding use, (4) decline in production at a rate similar to the growth rate experiences in the resources early and middle development

Trends of us crude oil production

(advent of fracking, North Dakota passed California and Alaska to become the second-leading producer of crude oil among the US states.)The U.S. is also now exporting more crude oil than ever before. Prior 2015, the export of crude oil to companies other than Canada was banned by law. A change in the law in 2015 lifted that ban, resulting in a surge in oil exports by U.S. companies

Fossil fuels

(coal, oil, natural gas) originate in sediment that carries abundant organic carbon (undecayed plant and animal matter). This organic-carbon-rich sediment is transformed into sedimentary rock under the influence of heat and pressure which are applied when the sediment is buried in a subsiding sedimentary basin.

gross domestic products (GDP)

(the dollar value of goods and serviced produced by a country, on a per-person basis) and the amount of energy that is consumed by those countries, per-capita energy consumption reflects the GDP and therefore the standard of living that is enjoyed (or not) by the people of different nations around the world. Access to reliable sources of energy is essential to economic and social stability

Diagenesis. Catagenesis, Metagenesis

-----occurs at temperatures below ~80° C, where buried organic carbon is turned into kerogen, which is the fossilized form of organic carbon that forms at temperatures below those required for hydrocarbon formation. ----- which occurs at 80-120° C, transforms kerogen too the hydrocarbons (oil and gas) that make up fossil fuels. -------occurs under conditions above 225°C where graphite is formed and the energy potential of buried carbon is lost.

lignite coal

-Lowest rank of coal, brownish black, visible plant material, crumbly, organic rock.

Geologic Conditions for Fossil Fuel Formation

1) Biologically environment producing large quantities of organic material - typically shallow water continental margins 2)Limited supply of oxygen to bottom waters in contact with sediment limits the biological activity that would act to decompose dead organic material 3)Rapid burial of un-decomposed organic material provides for efficient capture of the organic material in sedimentary deposits. Burial in sedimentary basins causes the organic material to be 'cooked' to different degrees, thereby producing different type of hydrocarbon materials.

Environmental Costs of Coal Use

1). Coal produces abundant carbon dioxide when burned. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming 2)Coal liberates sulfur as sulfur dioxide into atmosphere upon burning. Sulfur dioxide is toxic and combines with atmospheric water to produce sulfuric acid and acid rain 3)Ash is liberated from coal upon burning. Ash is as much as 20% of the volume of coal. Safe disposal of coal ash is a significant problem 4)Coal burning releases toxic metal such as selenium, mercury and uranium

What are ingredients for a glacier

1). Low Temperatures: Temp must be low enough to keep snow on the ground year-round. This condition, which is met many places on Earth, is primarily a function of latitude and elevation

Ingredients to Glaciers

1). Low Temperatures: The average annual temp must be low enough to keep snow on the ground year-round. this condition is primarily a function of latitude and elevation 2)snow:To create a glacier, there must be enough moisture in the air to produce snow. the accumulation of snow, over time turns to ice, creates a glacier some cold places (either at high elevation or high latitudes), won't have glaciers if they are too dry, and at low latitudes (even in the tropics) might have glaciers if their elevations are high enough.

The cirques and aretes

1). steep-walled, amphitheater-like valleys that were were carved by glaciers near the summit of the mountains. 2). are sharp ridges that mark the line where two cirques meet.

In the zone of accumulation fresh snowfalls are made of ---snowflakes and ---air. Each new layer of snow is eventually buried by subsequent snows. This compacts the snow, changing it first to----- e which contains ---air, then -----, which has ----- air, and eventually -----, which contains about ------air in the form of bubbles trapped in

10% 90% subsequent snows, grangular ice, 50%,firn 20-30% glacial ice 20%, ice crystals.

growth at the kern river

1942 to 1986 was more than 13times the reserve estimates made in 1942. Such dramatic reserve growth resulted primarily from the advent of new technologies that improved the efficiency with which energy companies were able to extract oil from the ground. Reserve

Supply side what question was it

1960's question was always 'When will our ability to produce more oil begin to decline and result in persistent price increases this was the peak oil question

peak-oil critics argued

2000-2010 1).that significant oil fields remained to be discovered. recent large discoveries in the Caspian Sea region and argued that these were the tip of a big ice berg. 2)argued that extraction technologies and economic forces would greatly expand the volume of reserves in the future 3)argued that alternative sources of oil (nonconventional oil sources) and new oil production technologies (nonconventional production methods) would also have a significant impact IF some reason oil prices began to rise in response to declining world production 4)decline in oil production forced by limits on resource availability would not come for many years Thus, the peak oil critics saw no pending supply-side constraints in oil resources that would drive prices up.

Peak oil question was a hot topic in and why

2000-2010, oil prices spiked to more than $150/barrel and average gasoline prices in the U.S. went above 4$/gallon.

U.S. oil production turned around starting in approximately and why

2005. This change was spurred by higher oil prices and by changes in the technology of oil extraction. This turn-around was also exactly what was predicted by Peak Oil critics, especially economists, who had long advocated a more optimistic outlook on world oil production. In

A global comparison reveals that the North America has----- of the world's reserves of coal this is good and bad because

27%, This is good news for U.S. electricity production, but bad news for the environment, because coal mining is a messy business and the burning of coal contributes to air pollution and global warming. As a result, and because of recent changes in fossil fuel production in the U.S. (fracking and shale gas, which we will learn about here) coal is now being phased out in favor of natural gas.

Antarctic Ice Sheet covers

90% of Antarctica (~12.5 million square kilometers). The thickness exceeds 4000 meters in some places. Part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is an ice shelf (the Ross Ice Shelf) which is a sheet of ice that is attached to the continent but also extends across and floats on an arm of the sea.

Glacier

A large mass of ice on land that shows evidence of being in motion or of once having moved

Each of these steps involves progressive loss of nitrogen and water to create organic material with higher carbon and hydrogen contents and also higher energy contents so theen Anthracite and Bituminous Coal have and Peat and Lignite have more

A,B Less Nitrogen Less Water More Carbon More Energy P,L More Nitrogen More Water Less Carbon Less Energy

Trends in electricity generation

An important part of the growth in production of natural gas from shale over the past decade is used to produce electricity where it has replaced coal as the leader. horizontal drilling and fracking technologies, exactly like those that are being used in the development of oil shale from the Bakken Formation Wind and solar (renewables) also now contribute a growing proportion of U.S. electricity generation at the expense of coal.

(non-conventional) sources of oil example

An outstanding example of this kind of alternative oil can be seen in the Athabasca oil sands of Canada, which constitute a potential oil reserve similar in size to the conventional oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Kern River Oil Field was in what and a example of what

Bakersfield, California as an example of reserve growth, (increase estimate oil fields), A great place to see the effects of reserve growth and impacts of nonconventional oil sources and extraction technologies (not traditional oil well)

Laurentide Ice Sheet

Based on the locations of the large moraines and other glacial landforms it is possible to reconstruct on a map the location of the edges of the ice sheet that covered Canada and the northern United States

Zone of Wastage/Zone of Ablation

Below the snow line, all of the snow that falls during the winter as well as some glacial ice, is melted during the summer.

glacial striations.

Boulders and cobbles in moraines typically have lots of linear scratches on their surfaces.

zone of accumulation

Formation of glacial ice from snow occurs primarily at high elevations, in the part of the glacier where snow that falls in the winter does not melt in the summer.that snow is turned into glacial ice

Valley Glaciers (Alpine)

Glaciers restricted to valley areas at high elevations. Alpine glaciers resemble rivers of ice ex St. Elias Mountains of Canada and southeast Alaska, Absaroka Mountains of northwest Wyoming.

Piedmont Glaciers

Glaciers that exit the confines of a valley and spread out laterally over a broad and relatively flat area, spreads out horizontally over a broad lowland, 2 valleys merge canW

Continental Glaciers (Ice Sheets)

Large, broad, slow-moving glaciers that cover large portions of continental areas.

Advantages of Natural Gas

Minimal processing • Burns cleanly • More energy per unit weight than any other fossil fuel • More energy per unit of CO2 than any other fossil fuel • Extensive infrastructure already in place to handle gas • New technologies might make gas a transportation fuel • Extensive reserve growth in the US spurred by fracking technologies

uncertainty for future oil demand

Most forecasts indicate that a peak in the demand for oil is decades away (beyond 2040), but some see Peak Demand for oil coming by 2030. Forecasting future demand for oil is fraught with Efficiency Gains: Gasoline vehicles will be more efficient and used more widely in the future. Fuel Switching: Use of biofuels, hydrogen, and liquified natural gas in vehicles may grow in the future. Electric Vehicles: Rapid gains in battery technologies may have a major impacts on demand for oil. Petrochemicals: Growth in the recycling of plastics might cut into petrochemical demand for oil

an example of glaciers at low latitudes with high elevations is

Mt. Kilimanjaro, which is a large volcano in eastern Africa, located in the tropics, approximately 3° north of the equator. The summit of Mt. Kilimanjaro is at an elevation of 5900 meters (19,300 ft).

Energy Content of Hydrocarbons

Oil formed under different temperature conditions in the Earth results in differing oil viscosities which can be used to produce different petroleum-based products ranging from tar to gasoline and natural gas. In general, higher formation temperatures produce hydrocarbons with lower viscosities and higher energy contents

The technology used to grow the oil reserves in the Kern River Field, which is called

Steam Flooding

Cooking coal

The burial and heating of organic material creates a progressive change from living plants to first peat, lignite, bituminous coal and finally anthracite coal, Each of these steps involves progressive loss of nitrogen and water to create organic material with higher carbon and hydrogen contents and thus higher energy contents.

bituminous coal

The most common form of coal; produces a high amount of heat and is used extensively by electric power plants.

Why Natural Gas is Important in the Future of U.S. Energy

U.S. natural gas reserves are large. Current estimates are for 300 years of natural gas supply for the US • The heat potential for worldwide natural gas reserves is equal to that of oil reserves • Natural gas is replacing coal for electrical power generation • New technologies may make natural gas a transportation fuel • Natural gas reserves in the US are near populated areas where the gas can be consumed. • Infrastructure for gas is in place and in the U.S., gas reserves are near populated areas where the gas can be consumed

peat

a brown, soil-like material characteristic of boggy, acid ground, consisting of partly decomposed vegetable matter. It is widely cut and dried for use in gardening and as fuel.

Slow-onset floods

also known as regional floods, occur in response to heavy rains and/or snow melt throughout a season over a broad area. Floods of this type are often called "disasters in slow motion", because they play out over weeks and even months, and because many aspects of the events can be predicted as weather and river conditions changes.

Reserves

are estimates of that part of a total resource (the overall quantity they do have) sup grouped in ) resources that can be extracted and marketed at a profit. Estimates of reserves are therefore dependent on market forces and are subject to economic and technological changes. a stock materials

Moraines

are low ridges of glacial till that are deposited around the margins and terminus of a glacier.

Eskers

are sinuous ridges formed by sediment deposited by streams flowing beneath glaciers. The presence of the esker implies that a glacier once covered this part of North Dakota.

Drumlins

cigar-shaped ridges that are formed by the compaction of glacial till beneath a glacier. The narrow end of the points in the direction that the glacier was moving. located near Rochester, NY.

Glacial retreat is observed not only in alpine glaciers but in --------- as well, especially in the ice shelves, which are the parts of the ice sheets that -------- In

contential glaciers, go over the ocean, example Antarctic summer of 2002, a major portion of the Larsen Ice Shelf, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, was observed to collapse into the ocean over a time period of about 6 weeks.This event, similar to the retreats of alpine glaciers observed worldwide, indicates that the Earth is shifting toward a warmer climate.

Similar to the situation with coal, burial and heating of organic material in marine sediments results in a progressive change in the organic material. These changes occur in three steps termed

diagenesis, catagenesis, and metagenesis.

Glacial ice that is created in the zone of accumulation eventually begins to flow

downslope, similar to the flow of water in a stream, except that there is more drag along the bottom, so the interior and top of the glacier commonly move a significant distance while the bottom is dragged more slowly along the ground surface, flow vary enormously, but 1-2 meters per day are common for large alpine glacier

subsidence

e cold rigid lithospheric plates (which behave like elastic solids over time), ride on a soft, warm interior (the asthenosphere) which responds to the shifting loads at the earth's surface. As sediment is loaded onto the edge of a continent, the underlying lithosphere bends downward elastically, forcing the underlying asthenosphere to flow out of the way (plastically) like a viscous fluid

North Dakota has been known

for the bakken formation, known since the 1980's. However, production of Bakken oil remained low until 2005, when the use of horizontal drilling and fracking began to make it possible to produce oil out of shale formations.

anthracite coal

highest grade of coal Because it is 'cooked' at a relatively high temperature, so it has a relatively high energy content, and is also relatively free of pollution-causing impurities such as sulfur.

. Unconventional gas reserves include tight gas, which occurs in

impermeable sandstone reservoir rocks, and shale gas, where the reservoir rock is non-porous and impermeable shale.

Shale gas

important in the US because there are vast deposits of shale in the US that may contain natural gas that can be extracted by fracking. Some of these shale formations - especially the Marcellus Shale, in New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, have had a major impact on the natural gas market in the US.

Where as the Oil reserves been making and who has it been exclude have high economics but low fossil

includes middle-eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, which has the greatest quantity of proven oil reserves, and excludes countries such as Japan and New Zealand

The progression from lignite to bituminous and anthracite coal is produced by

increasing the temperature at which the coal is "cooked". Higher temperatures are produced when then material is buried more deeply

Stream Flooding

involves pumping steam into the reservoir rock to lower the viscosity of the remaining oil and allow it to be pumped out of the formation. The effect of the steam is to lower the viscosity of the heavy oil remaining in the rock, so that it can be pumped (expanded production in the field way better then conventional (Primary) oil-production methods. Kern)

Coal

is a black, brittle sedimentary rock that is composed primarily of organic materials which are primarily the remains of plants that were living at the time that the sedimentary rocks were deposited.

Shale

is often rich in organic material so it can be a good source rock for hydrocarbons. Shale is also very fine-grained and contains a lot of clay. Because of the high clay content, shale generally has a very low porosity and low permeability, and so is usually a poor reservoir rock. T

The Bakken Formation

is primarily shale,The effect of fracking is to create fractures in shale, and thereby increase its porosity and permeability, making it possible to extract oil and gas, the ------- deposited at the beginning of the Carboniferous, around 300 million years ago. The formation is composed of two shale layers with a silt-rich limestone layer between them , rich in organic material. They are referred to as oil shale, because of their high oil content.

porosity

is the amount of open space in the rock

peak annual discharge

is the highest discharge event for the creek in each year for which data are available, If flooding of the creek occurs when the discharge reaches 20,000 CFS (red line), then we can see that there are flood events recorded throughout the time period of data collection, and that flooding does not appear to have significantly increased or decreased in the 100+ years of recorded data

World oil reserves

is, countries where the geologic history (over tens and hundreds of millions of years) has lead to the formation of oil.

At higher and higher temperatures within the oil window, the oil that is formed is made of organic molecules that are progressively smaller and smaller. This results

lighter and more fluid oil compositions at higher temperatures and heavier, more viscous oil compositions at lower temperatures

Long Island, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are all composed predominantly of large

moraines that were deposited at the terminus of a large ice sheet that covered most of Canada

The major depositional features of glaciers are ------ which are low ridges of -------that are created along the margins and terminus of a glacier

moraines, glacial Till

The Dry Valley area of Antarctica are very cold but also very dry, so no

no glaciers

discharge

of a stream is simply a measure of the amount of water that is flowing past a fixed point on the stream bank per unit time. Units for discharge are commonly cubic feet per second (ft3/sec) or cubic meters per second (m3/sec DISCHARGE = channel width X water depth X stream velocity

The reservoir rock is where the --- is stored. Reservoir rocks are typically -----that are highly porous, and so can hold a large quantity of --

oil, sandstone, oil

The source of carbon for oil and gas formation is ---- and ---- that live in shallow, sunlit waters and accumulate in sediments deposited near the margins of the continents. Oil is produced when these carbon-rich sediments are buried in subsiding sedimentary basins and are to temperatures around the boiling point of water (80°-150° C). If heating extends to higher temperatures - up to 225° C - then ----- is produced

plankton and other organisms, natural gas is produced

The best reservoir rocks are both

porous - so they can hold a lot of oil - and permeable - so the oil can flow through the inter-connected pore and be extracted from the rock by drilling sandstone is not permeable

reserve growth in the Kern River Field had nothing to do with new discoveries of oil but was instead,

product of improved extraction technologies applied oil that was discovered long ago.

Peak Oil proponents

recognized that evolving technologies and shifting economies might have some effects on future oil prices, but they argued that these changes would not overcome the decline in world oil production (decline in oil supply) that they felt certain was looming. Proponents of the Peak Oil viewpoint argued that a similar peak in world oil production was certain decline in the world's ability to produce/supply oil to increasing demand) and lead to persistently high oil prices.

The Peak Oil idea they beilive would happen eventually

rooted in the observation that discoveries of new oil fields declined steadily for decades after the 1960's, even though demand and production of oil consistently increased this causing increasing oil prices Such a scenario would benefit oilproducing countries, but would likely hurt the economies of oil-importing country, including the United States

Western Interior Seaway

s based on the distribution of Cretaceous-age sandstones formed in a beach environment

permeability

s the degree to which the pore spaces are connected.

At the north pole there is no land, so there are no glaciers, just

sea ice, which is frozen seawater

The terminus of a glacier is a place where a large volumes of and is called

sediment and rock are deposited, This material is called glacial till.

The main tool used to explore for oil and gas is

seismic imaging

Trap rocks are typically

shales that contain few fractures and are made of very fine particles, and so are highly impermeable.

The lower limit of the zone of accumulation is called which is

snow line.

The ---- typically lies below the ------ which lies below the seal rock which creates the trap, which prevents the oil and gas from escaping.

source rock, reservoir rock,

As weather events of a season unfold, the effects of flooding across regions can be fairly accurately predicted if the appropriate stream-flow data have collected over time. These data are collected b

stream gauges

Eskers are produced by

streams of water that flow beneath glaciers. In this setting, the sand and gravel carried by the streams are supported along their margins by ice, resulting in a tunnel beneath the ice which is filled with sand and grave

weathering and erosion and the deposition of that material in the form of sediment around the edges of the continents creates over time, a shift in mass from the mountains to the continental edges. The response to the loading of the edges of the continent with large accumulations of sediment is the slow sinking process known as

subsidence

the formation of coal typically involves sedimentary deposits that are -----. In contrast, oil and gas formation typically occurs in ------ sedimentary deposits. Similar

terrestrial (on land) and marine

steam gauges, stilling well

that is connected to the stream by a pipe, so that the water level in the well rises and falls with the water level in the stream. The water level is recorded continuously by a system which is often powered by a solar panel. If the dimensions of the stream channel are known, then the stream height can be used to calculate the discharge. Other data, such as temperature, wind speed and rainfall are also often collected by modern stream gauge systems, such as the one pictured here. stilling

When the terminus of a glacier retreats back toward the zone of accumulation, it does not mean

that the glacier has stopped flowing or that it is flowing up hill. The location of the terminus reflects the balance between the supply of ice from the zone of accumulation, and the rate at which the ice melts If summer becomes consistently warmer and longer over time, then the amount of ice that melts every summer will increase, resulting in the retreat of the terminus.

A significant part of growth in U.S. oil production since 2008 is due to

the implementation of horizontal drilling and fracking technologies in North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, as shown in the previous slide. In 2018, the fracking boom that drove increased oil production in these states turned the U.S. into the world's leader in crude oil production.

Fracking

the process of pumping of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure into oil and gas wells to fracture the rock and thereby make it possible to more efficiently extract more oil and gas. mostly drilled horizontal into shale that contain oil fined grained

At the terminus

the rate of supply of glacial ice is equal to the rate at which that ice is melted, may shift forward to backward, depending on the rate of ice supply and the amount of melting, which may change from season-to-season and over time, with shifts in the global climate ex Athabasca Glacier, which is located in the Rocky Mountains of Canada.

Glacial till is

the unsorted and chaotic material deposited by glaciers.

Because the reservoir rock is usually both porous and permeable, it is generally necessary for the oil to be trapped in the reservoir rock by an overlying rock unit which is referred to as the

trap rock or seal rock, which prevents the oil from escaping from the reservoir

Carboniferous

was the time period in Earth history when there were abundant shallow seas bordering extensive continental land masses near the equator. This lead to the formation of extensive coal-forming (swampy) geologic environments, which were well preserved in the rock record

Seismic imaging

which involves putting a source of seismic energy (sound waves) into the Earth, and then creating an image from the waves that are reflected from the various layers that lie below the surface. On land, the source of the seismic energy is typically a specialized truck, At sea, the source of the energy is typically compressed air, which is fired from an air gun that is towed behind a ship

New Orleans

which lies 5-10 ft below sea level world's 4th longest river (the Mississippi), which carries sediment from an enormous area of the mid-continent, stretching from the western Appalachians to the Rocky Mountains. Mississippi River carries a heavy load of sediment, and because the river deposits that sediment in small area at the edge of the continent, the subsidence rates around New Orleans ) are unusually high (est. 9 mm/yr

The Marcellus Shale

which underlies a large portion of several eastern and midwestern states, has become a major source of natural gas over the past decade, has become a major producer of the natural gas in eastern and mid-western states that have not been traditionally strong producers of energy

M. King Hubbert predicted

who correctly predicted in 1958 the decline in U.S. oil production that eventually occurred in ~1970 but later realized his failure to foresee the rapid rise in U.S. oil production after 2010 reflected the failure in his predictive models to account for technological shifts that would be driven by higher oil prices in an environment of declining supply after 1970