Elections, Media, and Strategy Midterm
Duverger's Law
"simple majority, single ballot system favors the two party system" and a "the simple majority system with second ballot and proportional representation favor multi-partism"
What are U.S Presidential election system?
US Presidential elections function as a variant of the SMDP electoral system, with the entire country serving as a single district.
What is negative partisanship?
When the public seems increasingly unhappy with the two parties, and partisans are more driven by negative attitudes toward the other party than positive feelings toward their own party
What are the biggest expectations of Republicans?
government should regulate people's behavior in such matters as abortion and gay rights
What is the biggest expectation of Democrats?
government should stay out of people's decisions on such issues as abortion and gay rights
Enthusiasm campaign strategy
not trying to single to moderates or soft leaders, but focused on turning out your own voters and showing loyalty to your own party --Have enough voters to win the election and you are unlikely to gain new voters
What is the issue agenda of Democrats?
social services, health, education, taxes on high incomes permit government to provide services to the needy, international negotiations, environmental protection
What are Republicans core supporters?
south, caucasians, conservative christians, business people
what are the results of candidate centered elections?
-Because House members are elected only by voters in a particular district within a state, candidates have relatively little incentive to organize together or cooperate with one another, even within their own parties -This means that candidates will sometimes distance themselves from their own parties and party leaders (president) depending on individual circumstances in a given election -Even after elections, party members have less incentive to be loyal to their own party compared to other democracies (somewhat counterintuitive given the highly partisan nature of our times) -In good times (during periods of peace & prosperity), the party in power will focus on big, national issues, while the party out of power may shift to local or more cultural issues. -The inverse happens in bad times, where the party in power will shift away form national issues in the house and senate elections while the party out of power will insist on a national message
what are the consequences of fewer "purple states"?
-Candidates are going to run far from the center -No incentive to state you will compromise across parties -Overall incentive to moderate is diminished -A lot of the parties that aren't the party of power in state don't even run against the candidate
How does the US candidate nomination process differ from other democracies?
-In most other countries, they candidate nomination process runs through a small number of party activists and candidates are chosen only by official members of the party. In the US, primary voters have more influence over the selection of candidates
Why cant third parties can't gain traction in the U.S?
-United States SMDP system -Duverger's Law -the parties themselves often set the rule for which candidates qualify for debates, appearances on state ballots, etc
What is the decline of the New Deal Coalition? (Abramowitz optional reading)
-between 1932 and 1936, FDR forged an electoral coalition that dominated American politics for more than half a century -those groups hit the hardest by the depression, which would form the backbone of the FDR/Dem. coalition: African Americans, white southerners, northern white ethnics, and northern white working class -FDR presidency served to define the Democratic Party as a party for working people -Democratic coalition began to break apart as white conservatives discovered they has little in common with others in the coalition, and the civil rights movement, urban crime/riots and the countercultural movements of the 60s served to break up the coalition -1964 was an important year in defining the party coalitions as LBJ pushed for civil rights legislation, whereas DOP nominee Barry Goldwater opposed
What are the dramatic changes that fostered polarization? (Abramowitz)
-civil rights revolution, the expansion of the regulatory and welfare state that was first created during the New Deal era, large scale immigration from Latin America and Asia, the changing role of women, the changing structure of the American family, the women's rights movement and gay rights movements, and changing religious beliefs and practices -21st century is much more racially and ethnically diverse, more dependent on government benefits, more sexually liberated, more religiously diverse, more secular -more divided and more bitterly divided among party lines (racial, religious, culture and geographic lines)
How do other democracies elections compare to the United States elections?
-compared to most other democracies, congressional elections in the US tend to be more candidate centered rather than party centered, and they tend to focus on local matters more than national issues -In GB candidates STAND for election, in the US they RUN for elections
How are racial and religious issues are reshaping party coalitions?
-over the last 40 years, Democrats have increasingly taken positions in favor of racial justice and more secular stances (pro choice and LGBTQ) while Republicans have consistently opposed direct efforts to redress racial injustice and have embraced traditional positions on social issues (prayer in school, against same sex marriage, against abortion) -this has helped to better clarify the parties and also increase partisan loyalty
What are the parts of the parties?
-party organization: party committees, party leaders and activists -party in government: party candidates for public office and state, local, and national public officials -party in the electorate: citizens who identify with the party
How do protests affect politics?
-the media plays an important role, they frame the issue as being centered on the pursuit of equal rights or as being centered on "riots" and "disorder" -Wasow find that counties experiencing peaceful protests tended to shift toward democrats and the countries experiencing violence shifted toward Republicans
How civil rights issues are present today (New times, same issues)
-trump's "law and order" messaging didn't seem to be as effective for him as it was for Nixon (and Regan). In fact, according to polling in October of 2020, the public trusted Biden to "maintain law and order" over Trump (50% to 44%, respectively) -Several factors could contribute to that: the increasingly favorability toward protestors and the BLM movement, Trump's unpopularity and perceived chaotic style, the prominence of the other issues, etc
What is Abramowitz argument in the Great Alignment?
-while it is obvious that political elites are highly polarized, Abramowitz argues that the public is also highly polarized, which can explain why polarization is so hard to overcome among elites -this era of high partisanship, largely defined by the rise of negative partisanship, is unique in modern American history -while contentious disagreements along racial, religious, cultural, and geographic lines are not new to American politics, the way they map onto the modern party structure is. According to Abramowitz, one side has come to embrace the dramatic changes of the last 50 years while others feel threatened by them
Running for office facts
-with less input and influence from the parties, party recruitment has evolved into "candidate emergences" making way for outsiders and individual -requirements for members of congress --HOUSE: 25 years of age, US citizen at least 7 years, reside in the state they represent --SENATE: 30 years of age, US citizen for at least 9 years, reside in the sate they represent
What do the parties do?
1. Elect candidates: parties are goal oriented, and most of the goals of political parties can only be achieved through winning elections 2. Educate (or propagandize) citizens: organizing the electorate in a way to build support for a given party. Parties often do this by focusing on issues that bind the party together while downplaying issues that split it 3. Govern: Almost all members of federal and state legislatures in the U.S are members of one of the two parties. Party politics therefore informs and influences a huge amount of policy and legislation in the US
What are the two ways incumbents craft their messages?
1. In safer seats/districts, they will focus largely on their own persona and their accomplishments in office, often completely or almost completely ignoring their challenger 2. In more contested races, they may use their resources and campaign advantages to negatively define their challenger early in the race, and they may focus on the benefits they have delivered to their state/district
Factors to consider before running for congress
1. characteristics of the particular state or district (partisan leanings, demographics) 2. recent election results (is the incumbent in potential danger) 3. Is the incumbent running for re-election? 4. mood of the country 5. economic and foreign policy trends 6. local issue and circumstances
What are some basic campaign strategies to consider?
1. gauging the mood of the public in your state or district -opinion pools internal polling, news reports, focus groups 2. deciding on a campaign message -which issues are salient? How popular is your party.the other party? What is the general mood of the country? What is your candidate's experience and qualifications? Do you have a winning issue? 3. Deciding which voters to target -what are the partisan leanings in your state/district? Which groups are most likely to support you?
What are the incumbency advantages?
1. name recognition 2. likely a natural status quo and partisan advantage 3. a campaign organization already in place 4. the resources available to a sitting member of congress (such as "franking privilege" - the ability to send mail for free, gifts and/or spending on their constituents) 5. stronger party backing in many cases
Factors leading to candidate centered elections
1. set election dates (not flexible in other countries) 2. federal regulations that have weakened the parties 3. open primaries (as opposed to official party members screening and selecting candidates) 4. different offices being up for election at different times 5. individual districts for House elections 6. Adoption of the Australian ballot in the late 1800s, which placed all candidates on one on one ballot and allowed for secret voting and easy ticket splitting 7. As of the early 1900s, the parties were not able to appoint civil service personnel by patronage, shifting to a more merit based and permanent civil service sector
Biggest partisan divides among the public
1. the coalition of voters leaning toward the democratic party have become more racially diverse along with the country, but the GOP coalition of voters remains overwhelmingly white 2. Democrats are more liberal while Republicans are more conservative -the GOP are less likely to want to compromise 3. Democrats increasingly secular and Republican Party more christian 4. Democratic voters live in more urban areas and Republican voters live in more rural areas
Why is the candidate nomination process different in the United States?
1. this in part by design, as the framers of the US constitution sought to prevent any segment of the elected government from accruing too much power -members of the House, members of the Senate, and the president are elected through different methods -holding elections for individual offices (at different times and through different means) separates the fortunes of individual candidates from those seeking other offices and from their own parties to a degree 2. (readings) the creation of geographically defined, single member, winner take all districts 3. (readings) availability of campaign support from interest groups also limits the electoral influence of American political parties relative to their counterparts in other democracies
What are the measures of heightened partisanship?
1. very high rates of party loyalty 2. the rise of straight ticket voting 3. greater party loyalty in congress as well 4. lower partisan identification but growing negative partisanship
What are the effects of fewer swing districts and states?
1. with swing districts dwindling, moderation may not win votes in most districts/states (where the only real competition comes from a potential primary challenger) so fewer moderates are elected to congress, and safer seats leads to greater extremism, and thus great general polarization 2. political ideology and partisanship becomes more associated with specific regions, thus leading to geography-based cultural and political divides 3. less incentive to compromise across the isle, particularly as parties have sorted themselves regionally and along party ideology
why do some candidates distance themselves from the party or president?
Because each candidate has to win in a specific geographic space, they have to tailor their own message to the needs of that particular election and that particular geographic state or district
SMDP (Single Member District Plurality)
In SMDP systems (like in the United States), whoever gets the plurality of votes in a district wins the election and becomes the representative of that district or state. -leads to a two party system
PR (Proportional Representation)
In proportional systems (like in Israel and the Netherlands), parties win seats in the legislative body in direct proportion to their share of votes cast in the election. -tend to lead to more than two parties -usually at least two parties will need to bridge a coalition in order to form a majority voting block
Does the party organization or party electorate have more power in elections?
In the U.S, the electorate has more power to choose candidates through primary elections whereas most other democracies around the world, only party leaders and activists chose the candidates who will run for election
What is very common for incumbents in primary elections?
It is not uncommon for an incumbent candidate to run unopposed in primary elections --Even in years that favor outsiders - like 1992, for example - a majority of incumbents may face no opposition from their own party (52% unopposed in the House and 42% in the Senate in 1992) But political movements and broader trends in the country can influence what kind of candidates run for office and promote same-party challengers --Groups like Justice Democrats have helped to recruit and promote progressive candidates outside the framework of the traditional Democratic Party apparatus --The Tea Party did something similar and on a wider scale in 2010 and the years following
What are Democrats core supporters?
Northeast, West Coast, Minority groups, secular individuals, teachers, trail lawyers
In SMDP systems, only two parties tend to compete consistently for seats in elections. Why is this?
Primarily because smaller parties will have difficulty reaching a plurality of votes in any single district (or state), which means it will be challenging to win seats. Unless smaller party voters happen to be concentrated in a given district or state (unlikely) this almost always leads to the domination of two major parties. -a system where you must get the *most* votes within a district to win anything, smaller parties cannot gain traction, therefore leading to two party domination
How competitive has the national party system been?
Since the 1860s the parties have been close competitors in most eras -EX: the vast majority of presidential elections have been decided by less than 10% of the vote -EX: some of the closest elections in American history have occurred in the last 20 years congress has also been highly competitive in recent years -EX: democrats dominated congress from about 1932-1980, but since then control of congress has flipped regularly
List proportional system
The most common electoral method in PR systems in which each party prepares a list of candidates, and after the election, the electoral commission in the state awards seats starting at the top of each party's list until they have filled the proportion of seats they won in the election.
How has this general structure evolved over the years?
This general structure has evolved in recent years as parties and interest groups run sophisticated voter targeting and outreach efforts, but US congressional elections remain highly candidate centered
What is the core belief of Republicans?
a strong government interferes with business and threatens freedom
What is the core belief of Democrats?
a strong government provides needed services and remedies inequalities
How do party preference and demographic groups correlate?
at the individual voter level, party and vote choice tend to correlate to race, ideology, age, gender, region, and religious beliefs -the strongest groups for Republicans are generally declining as a total % of the electorate, while the groups strongest for Democrats are mostly increasing as a % of the electorate -Republicans have some built in advantages currently but we will likely reach a point where the GOP has to expand its appeal to remain nationally competitive
What did progressive reforms of the 20th century do to political parties?
brought increasingly open primary elections, which allowed candidates to largely bypass party leaders in seeking nominations. This gave the electorate more power at the expense of the party organization -party organization influence decreased, while party electorate influence increased
What are the origins of the Democratic Party?
dates back to 1832 when the Andrew Jackson faction split off from the Democratic Republicans to form a populist worker oriented party
What are the origins of the Republican party?
dates back to 1854, which originally formed in part to oppose slavery and then came to stand for the Union in the face of civil war
What are some of the other implications of our political system?
even in an era of high partisanship and very high negative partisanship, party discipline is not always guaranteed
What do the Democrats emphasizes?
fairness, especially for disadvantaged groups
What is the enduring dilemma for political parties?
how to respond to an expanding electorate (new groups gaining the right to vote, demographic trends among the electorate, etc.
What do Republicans emphasize?
individual success, not group rights
What was the golden era of political parties?
late 1800s to early 1900s, when the two party organizations were strong. They held sway in local and state governments, they were able to largely choose their own candidates, held the keys to many government jobs, etc
What is the issue agenda of Republicans?
less government spending, tax cuts for the wealthy to grow the strong economy, strong military, property rights
How far back do the major parties trace their roots back?
over 100 years
What is critical to the well being of democracies according to Daniel Ziblatt?
the health of conservative parties -argues in countries with stronger party organizations, parties mostly are able to block or push out extremist candidates -argues when conservative parties give way to extremist candidates and ideologies (nativism, racism, aggressive nationalism, etc) democracies typically go into decline -How will the GOP respond to an increasingly diversified electorate, as their key constituents decline as a percentage of the overall electorate?
What did the founders think about political parties?
they feared political parties -George Washington thought "they were likely to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people" -Alexander Hamilton called political parties "the most fatal disease" of popular governments -even so, the first parties sprang up almost immediately after founding (within 10 years)
What is the current trend with party identification?
we can see that independent identification is generally up while party identification is somewhat down (and with many people identifying as only leaning toward on of the parties)
What marked the era of dealignment? (Abramowitz) (the 1960s and 70s)
when white conservatives (especially in the south) began to abandon the democratic party at the presidential level, making an era of dealignment in which voters would commonly split their tickets in presidential elections -it was common fro Democratic voters to abandon their party in presidential vote choice, and for Republican voters to choose Democratic candidates in House and Senate (record high ticket splitting)
Have the parties been competitive at both the national and local level?
while the two parties have been very competitive at the national level, at the regional level they have been less so
Persuasion campaign strategy
you are trying to single moderate voters and trying to peal off learners and moderate voters to vote for you --Assuming you can swing people to your side
