Exam 3 Review
Discuss the global oil market in light of contemporary US-Saudi relationship. What explains the dramatic drop of global oil prices over the last couple months? What role has Saudi Arabia played in this drop of global oil prices? How has President Trump used low oil prices (and Saudi Arabia's role in that) to defend his reaction to Khashoggi's death?
"They have worked closely with us and have been very responsive to my requests to keeping oil prices at reasonable levels - so important for the world." Used Saudi Arabia's responsiveness to our demands to lower oil prices to mitigate effects of Khashoggi's death
What is a trade deficit? How are trade deficits related to foreign capital inflows and investment in the United States?
A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports There is nothing particularly damaging about a trade deficit in the short run - exporters see less demand, which can slow economic growth in some sectors, but consumers benefit from cheap products. A strong currency can often lead to problems over time by generating trade deficits and growing indebtedness through the corresponding adjustment in the capital account. These debts can have significant implications for future economic growth and government decisions over taxing and spending.
How does Brexit affect the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland? Why is this issue such a significant dilemma for implementing Brexit?
After Brexit, Ireland remained in the EU but Northern Ireland (as part of Great Britain) is leaving the EU This threatens a fragile peace between Nationalists and Unionists in Northern Ireland established in 1998 by the Good Friday Accords by threatening the open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland No obvious way to accomplish Brexit and maintain this open border
What is the TPP? Why did President Trump formally withdraw the United States from the TPP in 2017? Why did he consider rejoining the TPP in 2018?
Agreement reached among 12 countries in October of 2015 Reduced trade barriers among them Also influence labor and environmental regulations President Trump withdraws US from on January 23, 2017 Clinton would have done the same Economic size of signatories significant: about 40% of global GDP Trade liberalization Political benefits Preempt Chinese economic influence Big free trade pact, potentially help the us economy Rejoining of tpp: was rechecking China Push labor and environmental standards us Opposition in US based on prospective job losses
According to the textbook chapter, what are the dilemmas of counterterrorism? Discuss the costs and benefits of using defensive measures like domestic intelligence and increased security to counter terrorism. How does counterterrorism present a tradeoff between security and liberty in democracies?
Benefits: Domestic intelligence agencies such as the FBI and local law enforcement bodies attempt to uncover and prevent attacks by monitoring and infiltrating terrorist cells and capturing, arresting, and prosecuting terrorists and those who provide funding or logistical support. These efforts weaken terrorist organizations by making attacks more difficult to execute. Costs: These law enforcement measures can be perceived as employing unequal force that targets the whole ethnic community rather than only those members involved in terrorist activities can increase support for the terrorist groups cause and undermine the legitimacy of the state within the community and more broadly. Weak intelligence operations have led to successful surprise attacks by terrorists that have caught authorities off guard (ex: Sri Lanka and Japan). Excessive monitoring of a state on its civilians presents a unique moral, political and legal challenges Collecting phone and internet data on citizens infringes privacy
What is the Bretton Woods economic order? What were the main forces that served as an impetus for the U.S. to construct the Bretton Woods order? What are the main organizations that emerged from Bretton Woods?
Bretton Woods (Bretton Woods, NH) emerges in final states of the WWII: US supports creation of international organizations to ensure economic growth through international trade. Impetus: Collapse of economic cooperation lead to the Great Depression which lead to Germany and start of WWII. World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund
What is Brexit and what was the result of the Brexit referendum? How does Brexit reflect the paradox of globalization?
Brexit is the proposition for the UKexiting the European Union and the result of the brexit referendum was that the UK wants to leave the EU for carikus reasons Brexit is basically a populist policy that allo s the UK to control immigration intro the country however it is seen as against a globalist policy and this means that it is contrary to what it really is and this means that it is a paradox of globalization
What did the CIA conclude regarding Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) involvement in Jamal Khashoggi's death? What have been President Trump's to the CIA's conclusion? How have some key Republican legislators like Lindsey Graham reacted to the CIA report and President Trump's reaction?
CIA declares with "high confidence" that MBS ordered the death of Jamal Khashoggi Based on intelligence including a phone call from MBS's brother (and Saudi ambassador to the U.S.) who allegedly told Khashoggi to go to the Turkish consulate. President Trump continues to show willingness to believe MBS and Saudi denials of his involvement Trump also signals that even if MBS is involved, he must consider "other factors" in deciding how this will affect U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations Unlike President Trump, Lindsey Graham offers harsh criticism of MBS without restraint Other Republican senators also try to distance themselves from MBS
What is the central paradox of globalization? Why does globalization produce aggregate growth but also economic winners and losers? How does the distributional consequences of globalization promote domestic political conflict?
Central paradox of globalization Brings aggregate prosperity and growth to national economies Also, brings increased competition and potential destruction of industries and loss of jobs Distributional consequences of globalization The domestic winners and losers from globalization causes conflict within countries over trade and globalization
How does international migration intersect with national security? According to your reading for this module, how does international migration present challenges for national security but also resources that can enhance a country's security?
Challenge security: Immigration raises fears of infiltration by terrorists through lack of regulation Challenge state sovereignty and worries about the slippery slope if others perceive them as weak Leads to stricter control/regulation of access through borders, especially of refugees and migrants from countries experiencing war Enhance security: Accepting migrants increases security by improving relations with other nations by taking in their migrants, or pressuring adversaries by taking in the refugees the adversaries oppressed More pronounced in Europe
Why is there a gap between public opinion regarding the preferred levels of immigration and immigration policies adopted by democracies? How does the collective action problem help to explain this gap?
Collective Action Problem: Powerful interest groups with less people benefit from immigration (lower labor cost): Agriculture Tech But cost of immigration is diffused among all groups, so collective action problem ensues Migration has huge impact on the political world Migration has a significant vote number that could shift the political situation of a country
What is the collective action problem? How might it be applied to the challenges of managing climate change? What are some of the political solutions to the collective action problem in the case of carbon dioxide emissions?
Collective Action Problem: Common pool resource problems. Public goods are nonexcludable. Difficult to impose actors from using them - consumption of the good diminishes value but little consequence. Leads to free riding. Climate change - countries make agreements to deal with climate change and stop emissions but little incentive to stick with it because fossil fuels are profitable and little consequence for not sticking with it. Solutions: Allow affected parties to negotiate some solution that would preserve sustainability and distribute the burden of doing so according to their joint preferences. Institutions set clear limits on use of common pool resources, also set rules for monitoring the behaviour of parties to ensure compliance and establish inducements, like fines or rewards, for compliance with the rules
What is collective identity? What are its central components? What are some sources of collective identity?
Components of Collective Identity Constitutive norms to set group membership Common purposes or interests Relational comparisons with other identity groups Cognitive framework to understand the world Sources Ethnicity Class Religion Gender Race Political affiliations Nationalism
What are the main elements of the deal that British Prime Minister Theresa May struck with the EU to execute a negotiated "soft" British exit from the EU? Why are so many political elements within the British legislature opposed to this deal?
Deal: Britain leaves the EU but does only after a transition period until end of 2020 During the transition period, Britain effectively stays in the EU but has no voice in decision-making Deemed unacceptable by hardline Brexiteers in her own party PM May argues it is either her deal or a "hard" Brexit with no deal
What is democracy? Describe Robert Dahl's three "procedural minimal" conditions of democracy.
Democracy is a concept that social scientists have difficulty defining: Competitive or "free and fair" elections have been offered as the defining aspect of democracy. "Institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the people's vote" - Joseph Schumpeter Democracy is a process that does not guarantee particular policy outcomes "Governments produced by elections may be inefficient, corrupt, shortsighted, irresponsible, dominated by special interests, and incapable of adopting policies demanded by the public good. These qualities make such governments undesirable but they do not make them undemocratic." -Samuel Huntington Electoralist fallacy - wrongly equating the holding competitive elections with democracy when such elections are not accompanied by crucial political institutions such as free speech. Robert Dahl's three conditions Public contestation: multiple parties compete in elections but also that citizens have the right to freely express themselves, form associations, and receive information from alternative sources in the media Inclusion: allow universal and equal participation by all segments of society Democratic sovereignty: result in truly powerful decision-making bodies
How and why has Democracy Promotion been a more or less important element within U.S. foreign policy over the years?
Democratic peace theory more democracies mean more partners for cooperation, more durable international settlements, more trades and more peace. Democracy promotion and liberal values of protecting human rights
What is the democratic peace theory? How do the factors that contribute to democracy's influence over foreign policy in general - electoral constraints, institutional constraints on power such as checks and balances, and a shared democratic identity - help to explain, in particular, peaceful relations between democracies?
Democratic peace theory holds that military conflict should be less likely among democracies than among all other combinations of regimes. Restricted to the community of democracies in the international system Democratic states fight each other less, but does not reduce the likelihood for say Democracy vs Autocracy. Elections make war less likely by raising its domestic political costs of war Society can use elections to punish politicians for the cost of war, like military casualties and higher taxes. Authoritarian leaders do not face the same restraints or threat to be removed from office as long as they retain loyalty of key support coalitions. Instead of the bargaining model of war, democratic institutions and competitive elections help ease problems of private information that make war more likely Provide information for other governments about the domestic political costs a democratic government will face for going to war. Higher cost → better deterrence. Elections and internal checks and balances within democracies can help solve the commitment problem Prevent future governments from withdrawing from international agreements and peace accords Implies that democracies do not exploit favorable shifts in distribution of power Explains the post WWII peace in Europe Potential electoral costs of war paid by democratic leaders can also generate the empirical relationship between democracies by determining which wars democracies will fight. Selection effect: democratic leaders fight only the wars they can win and win any war they enter. They know fellow democracies will be very challenging to engage in war. Democratic norms and institutions promote peace by facilitating a larger collective identity among democracies. Democracies tend to possess common foreign policy interests. Lack political reason for war.
Which group of countries will be the recipients of foreign aid under the Paris Climate Accord? How did this aid help facilitate the construction of this international agreement? And how might this aid help countries fulfill their emission targets?
Developing countries will be the recipients of foreign aid under the Paris Climate Accord for actions on climate change adaptation and mitigation.
What are the three different distributional struggles related to the problem of climate change?
Distributional struggle within countries: Coal vs Solar; Oil v General Public Distributional struggle among countries: Developed (US and Europe) vs Developing (BRIC: Brazil, China, India, Russia) Variation in carbon emissions across countries means different levels of preparedness for changes US: Carbon consumption in electricity, transportation, industry Europe: Less in transportation Industry (and carbon emissions) shifting to developing worlds; casp would impede their growth Distributional conflict across generations
How did President Trump's emphasis of the immigration issue and the migrant caravan affect the midterm elections? What was Trump's apparent electoral strategy in focusing on immigration rather than the economy or other issues?
Domestic issues drive midterm elections rather than foreign policy However, President Trump has made immigration a major issue Political strategy set by Trump to rally his base This strategy seems to be working but risks alienating moderates This strategy seems to risk losing the House to Democrats Potentially a strategy to strengthen Republican position in the Senate, while basically writing off Republican's ability to hold the House Also, an acknowledgement of previous winning strategy from 2016 - mobilizing the base rather than trying to persuade moderates or independents
What are the two main dilemmas facing NATO and how has the Trump administration addressed these dilemmas?
European shirking President Eisenhower on European shirking in NATO: "They won't make the sacrifices to provide the soldiers for their own defense." Trump demanding European countries do what they are required to do under the NATO. U.S. as a reluctant hegemon A huge burden on the United States military spending Trump argues that the cost of sustaining the military alliance outweighs benefits to the United States Trump called NATO obsolete and if EU members does not spend enough money on military as the treaty says, U.S. may not fully honor Article V of the treaty (sees an attack on a NATO nation as an attack on the whole, aka the heart of the treaty) Trump's position on NATO is a radical break from decades of U.S. foreign policy Questions leadership of United States in the alliance Threatens the whole security apparatus that has maintained peace in Europe since WWII.
What are the domestic distributional consequences of globalization? Which groups win and lose from globalization inside the United States?
Even though international trade increases the national wealth of the economy in the aggregate, some groups see income gains AND some groups see income losses International trade helps to create jobs in sectors that rely disproportionately on resources (factor endowments) that US possesses in abundance The abundance drives down the costs of these factors and makes goods that rely on them as inputs relatively cheaper Loser: Manufacturers Winners: Consumers
What is an exchange rate? How do shifts in exchange rates alter patterns of imports and exports? How can exchange rate changes influence trade policy?
Exchange rate - the value of one currency expressed as another (currency pairs, e.g. USD-GBP or CNY-EUR). Currencies are traded as FLOATING PAIRS on global financial markets (no one currency is the set "standard" value and the value of one currency is determined with regards to a basket of others. ) When one's own currency becomes more valuable, imported goods made in other countries become more attractive because one unit of one's own currency can purchase more of another's goods. Vice versa, if one's own currency is weak than one's goods are more appealing on the international market.
How were the criteria for gaining asylum expanded under the Obama administration? What effect did this expansion have on asylum claims?
Expanded asylum for those suffering gang violence, domestic violence, and persecution based on sexuality and gender Asylum claims increase by 1700%
According to the reading (Chapter 20: Global Governance), what are the incentives for global governance through international institutions? How are efforts at global governance confronted by the collective action problem? Once international agreements are established, what types of problems of compliance and enforcement do international organizations face?
Externalities, or costs or benefits that accrue to parties that are not directly involved in the interaction, and the parties' distributional stake in the outcome of such events incentivizes global governance. Global governance also reduces transaction costs by discussing a general set of rules and principles that will govern their subsequent interactions instead of renegotiating everytime they interact. Global governance faces the collective action problem in the production of public goods (non-excludable benefits such as clean air, global warming, etc.) Free-rider problem International Organizations use sets of rules to incentivise contribution to public good and also punish actors that does not follow through on their specific contributions to public good Problems of compliance and enforcement: Distribution of burden of collective goods provision Who should decrease most carbon emissions What policies to enact to decrease negative externalities
What is an externality?
Externality is a side effect or consequence of an industrial or commercial activity that affects other parties without this being reflected in the cost of the goods or services involved, such as the pollination of surrounding crops by bees kept for honey. Negative Externalities: spillover costs borne by actors not directly involved in a process for most countries in the world.
Using the module's reading, describe historical waves of democracy and the possible causes of these waves such as demonstration effects, neighborhood effects, conditionality of international organizations, and the influence of hegemons.
First long wave of democracy lasted for most of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century leading up to WWI. Democracy remained rare around the world, spread mainly in Europe and the United States Followed by reverse wave in WWI - WWII Germany and Italy turned fascist Autocratic Russia collapsed but replaced with communism Second short wave of democracy followed WWII. Western Europe influenced by American hegemony Japan Reverse wave took hold in the 1960s and 1970s in L atin America Third wave of democracy took hold beginning in the 1980s Spain, Portugal, and Greece Collapse of military rule in Latin America Collapse of Soviet Union Neighborhood Effect: States tend to emulate the level of democracy of their neighboring states. Creates regional environments that are more or less conductive to the emergence of democracy. Demonstration effect: Significant democratic reforms or the end of dictatorial rule in authoritarian regimes can spread quickly. (Fall of Berlin wall, mass demonstrations in Tunisia) Very regional! Conditionality: Regional organizations like the EU and NATO requires democracy to join and its benefits are powerful incentives for elites to adopt democratic reforms in order to enjoy the economic and political benefits of membership in powerful organizations. International Hegemony: Diffusion of democracy are dependent on the action of international hegemons. (e.g. U.S and Soviet Union during the cold war)
According to this module's reading, what is the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma? How does it create tradeoffs in a country's exchange rate policies?
Free flow of water, contractionary and expansionary monetary policy, and capital mobility. The tension between monetary policy autonomy, exchange rate stability and capital mobility is known as the Mundell-Fleming trilemma Although governments often want monetary policy autonomy, exchange rate stability, and capital mobility, they cannot simultaneously possess all three. Instead they must choose two based on the relative trade off involved. In the post-Bretton Woods era, the U.S. manages this tradeoff by allowing open capital flows and maintaining monetary policy autonomy, but opting for a floating exchange rate system. (not very painful for the U.S. because the dollar is not prone to severe volatility, U.S. economy can absorb many shocks)
President Trump has described himself as a nationalist. What does Trump mean by this? On the other hand, French President Emmanuel Macron has described himself as a patriot (as opposed to a nationalist). According to Macron, what is the difference between patriotism and nationalism? How was Macron's statement a critique of President Trump's America First foreign policy and an embrace of multilateralism?
French President Emmanuel Macron is warning against the dangers of nationalism in a speech aimed directly at the rising tide of populism in the United States and Europe. With U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders looking on during an Armistice Day centennial observance in Paris on Sunday, Macron said the "ancient demons" that caused World War I and millions of deaths are growing stronger. "Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism," the French leader said. "In saying 'Our interests first, whatever happens to the others,' you erase the most precious thing a nation can have, that which makes it live, that which causes it to be great and that which is most important: Its moral values." Trump has proudly declared himself a nationalist.
What types of international behavior does power transition theory expect from global powers that are ascendant versus global powers that are in decline? What is the commitment problem in this situation and how does it help to explain the incentives for declining powers to launch a preventive war against rising powers?
Global powers that are ascendant Unwilling to support the larger political, territorial, and economic order of the leading state Encouraged by the acquisition of new capabilities to pursue a more radical change from the current global order Global powers that are in decline Unwilling to revise the larger international order to their detriment Uncertain over their underlying political interests The weaker but ascending powers cannot credibly promise to restrain its future self that possesses the military and economic capabilities to alter the larger international order to its advantage (Commitment Problem), thus provoking the current leading but declining state to launch preemptive war in hopes of preserving its status.
How do trade and globalization shape political relations and order in the international system?
Globalization activates a series of political and economic tensions that shape political and economic outcomes in the international system. On the one hand, the principle of comparative advantage illustrates how specialization and international trade increase aggregate national income. The desire to harness these economic gains from trade can spur cooperative International agreements like the European Union and the World Trade Organization that facilitate the coordination of economic policy among states and sustain globalization. Alternatively, the heightened economic competition associated with globalization can also activate a deeper economic and political backlash that tries to limit these market pressures and reassert national political control over economic outcomes.
What does globalization in financial terms look like?
Globalization in financial terms: The free flow of capital and goods across international borders The rise of multinational firms who can leverage cheaper labor, cheaper capital, or advantageous government policies by changing where they do business.
What are the main components of the Paris Climate Accord? How should it operate to limit the growth of carbon dioxide emissions?
Goal: limit global temp increases under 2.0 d C with new goal to get under 1.5 d C. (In 2015: avg temps +1.0 C since 1880) Binding process for monitoring and reporting pledges on emission targets and progress in upholding those pledges. Need to make national plan public every 5 years, each plan needs to be as strong or stronger than the prior one. Foreign aid from developed to developing countries. Ease costs of alt energies Compensate for costs of climate change.
What are the distinguishing features of terrorist organizations?
Goals: Terrorism is a political act committed to advance a political goal Target: designed to provoke fear in wider audience than victims Nature of perpetrator: Non-state actors(or individuals influenced or inspired by them) are principal participants, rather than states Rely on surprise attacks, lack conventional capabilities to meet armies of states on battlefield
Discuss the global patterns of international migration. What are the countries with the largest inflows of international migration and which countries have the largest inflows of refugees?
Grown drastically since 2000, even higher than the global population growth More than 50%, from 173 to 258 million, and from 2.8% to 3.4% US is the largest receiving countries of international migration in numbers More than receiving countries Saudi and Germany UAE(80%) and Saudi(37%) have the highest in percentage of migrants in their population Trend for Voluntary Migration: From less developed countries to more developed countries Forced Migration: Usually flows to countries nearby
Understand, explain, and give examples of how international institutions shape international politics through the following mechanisms: a) guiding behavior and shaping expectations; b) providing information about state interests and incentives to comply; c) allocating and generating power for states.
Guiding behavior and shaping expectations Eliminate political conflict in the international system Sovereignty example: reciprocal rules allow countries to each decide laws on how people live inside their borders These rules also makes it possible to identify states and actors that violate the rules in the international system (identify threats) Coordination reduces transaction costs Providing information about state interests and incentives to comply With increasing international interactions, states need a way to streamline interactions efficiently, thus using institutions Decreases transaction costs in negotiation and establishment of agreements Incentives to solve collective action problems: Tax code so that citizens have to pay for public goods IRS enforcement through penalties Allocating and generating power for states Principal-agent: states, as principals, delegate an organization, an agent to accomplish a task, losing direct control on part of principal and giving autonomy to agent International Monetary Fund: those who give more money get greater control because of quota-based voting
According to this module's reading, what is hegemonic stability theory and how does it relate to the provision of public goods and the free rider problem in international relations?
Hegemonic stability theory holds that the concentration of global economic activity in a single state, the hegemon, stimulates high levels of trade among all states in the international economy. The leading economy or hegemon produces these systemic economic outcomes through its self-interested economic leadership. Because a significant proportion of total global economic activity occurs within the hegemon, it cannot remain insulated from the costs of global economic slowdowns or recessions. Furthermore, it can sustain its own internal economic development by fostering trade among all states in the global economy. Hegemonic decline can undermine the supply of these public goods that support international trade and reduce international trade flows. These trade-promoting policies impose costs on the hegemon. As its relative economic advantage over the rest of the world diminishes, the hegemon may simply have fewer resources to shoulder the costs of public goods provision. Elimination of tariffs Military presence that protects global shipping lanes
How is President Trump's approach to asylum rules a part of his more general political goals regarding immigration?
His desire to roll back Obama's changes reflects his political goal of restricting the border and deterring mass immigration Protect the US from foreign threats
Describe the conditions that led to the rise of ISIS. How did the toppling of Saddam Hussein and civil war in Iraq contribute to its emergence? What role did the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq under the Obama administration play? What was the effect of the civil war in Syria on ISIS?
ISIS originally began as Al Qaeda in Iraq Predominantly Sunni, recruited from former Baathists displaced from Iraqi politics Strengthened via Iraqi civil war that followed toppling of Saddam Hussein Exploited civil war in Syria and withdrawal of American troops to seize territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014
What is the boomerang effect? How does the boomerang effect influence comes after the military defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria?
ISIS returns to its insurgent roots: Boomerang effect: Foreign fighters have to go somewhere and return home and can easily cross borders because they are citizens Indoctrinated by ISIS they have training and incentives to carry out attacks ISIS has incentives to launch foreign attacks to remain relevant and attract followers
How can power transition theory be used to understand the evolution of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea?
If aggregate economic activity is a foundational input for military power, the power of China and United States is converging. Also, similar trend in military spending between the two countries These two indicators suggest that the global system is in the midst of a significant transition in material capabilities However: These indicators are not strong indicator of power in the contemporary era. China lacks external sources of military power and may not be able to catch up with the United States without its own broad alliance system. A unipole China might not have deep conflict of political interests and might simply prefer to leave the foundational components of the current international order unchanged. Further, the United States and China may lack deeper political conflict capable of provoking war in "the future. The dispute over South China sea is China (a weaker ascending state) unwilling to support the territorial order in that area and attempting to revise it to their benefit.
Discuss how the attack on 9/11 led to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. How did the decision not to distinguish between terrorists and states that harbor terrorists play into this decision? How did considerations of domestic reaction and the possibility of another attack affect this decision?
Immediately after 9/11, Bush felt the US was at war and decided to attack the perpetrators, Al-Qaeda. Also with little consultation, Bush made the decision to also fight an expanded war against terrorism, in which the US would not discriminate between terrorist organizations and states which harbor them. In the eyes of the Bush administration there were only two sides in this large conflict: with the US or against it. This decision to quickly retaliate was rooted from the fear that the US could be attacked again before it had a chance to respond with military force against Afghanistan. The inability to prevent another attack because of a delayed response could provoke a crisis of public confidence in the US government to provide the most basic public good--security from external threats.
What are institutions? What is the difference between institutions and organizations? What are some examples of institutions in domestic and international politics?
Institutions: Rules of the game Humanly devised constraints that structure incentives and interactions Tells us what is and isn't permitted The difference between institutions and organizations is that institutions are rules and organizations are political actors. An example of an institution in domestic politics is driving on the right side of the road. An example of an institution in international politics is sovereignty.
Describe the main elements of international economic cooperation. Why is political cooperation between states on international economic affairs difficult to achieve? How might international economic organizations, like the WTO and the IMF, facilitate economic cooperation among states and higher levels of international trade?
International economic cooperation: Enforcement mechanisms to deter states from cheating which takes in the form of withdrawing economic concessions that have seen promised Cooperation because joining an organization signals fp interests, it requires concessions that are costly domestically for future government policies that reduce uncertainty that it might change policies in the future Political cooperation is difficult is because: States cheat: contracting over time, commitment problem States uncertain about the intent of another state: they try monitor compliance to see if their partner truthful Very challenging to monitor effectively Distribution challenge: one state benefits more than the other E.g. Trump wants to move multilateral trade agreements to bilateral agreements to negotiate for better deals in response to the U.S. trade deficit. International Organizations resolve the challenges associated with cooperation by: Providing enforcement mechanisms WTO: Judicial Panel (allows complaints to enforce retaliatory economic measures. Everyone has the same rights within the WTO IMF conditionally loan countries to help pay debt (enforce compliance by cutting the funding when conditions are broken) IMF: 3 goals!! :) -- voting power is given how much money you contribute Act like a bank by giving capital that other countries are able to use as a system of loans Protects exchange states Lender of last resort to countries in trouble, like Greece! Bailed out Greece but added a ton of conditions for them to be able to join again. Helping to reveal information about state interests Reduce uncertainty of future and willingness of government to commit to free trade Monitoring compliance as neutral third party Solving the distributional problem
According to your reading for this module, how does international migration affect the demographic composition of countries? How do these demographic changes create conflict within countries over issues of national identity?
International migration could change the demographic composition of countries People considered the national language, religion, etc. important to national identity Immigrants with different languages, religions, etc. would cause changes to national identity These social/racial/cultural changes cause fear of losing these dominance
What is the political significance of the dollar reserve currency status in the global economy?
It is a safe haven currency globally. Demand for the dollar increases at signs of global economic weakness or uncertainty. Source of leverage for the US, can be used as a policy tool
What is terrorism?
It is the commission of violent acts against non-combatants in pursuit of a political aim. Generalize on surprise attacks to create extreme fear and insecurity on the part of its targets. The intentional targeting of civilians, rather than just military target is a hallmark of terrorism.
What are "lone wolf" terrorist attacks? How do these types of terrorist attacks reflect the evolution of the terrorist threat of ISIS and its transformation from "a place to an idea"?
Lone wolf attacks demonstrate the power of ISIS-inspired attacks through radicalization through social media of individuals with no ties to ISIS
Describe the complicated regional politics surrounding the broad collection of countries and forces that share an interest in defeating ISIS. What are some of the central political conflicts and disagreements between these countries? How did these conflicts affect American efforts to defeat ISIS in the region?
Lots of opposition to ISIS: US, Russia, Syrian government, Kurds, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq Political conflicts/disagreements: whether Assad should remain in power about threat posed by Iranian regional hegemony Kurdish threat to Turkey These political disagreements complicate military cooperation in fight against ISIS.
What are remittances? How do remittances help to redistribute wealth from wealthy countries to poorer ones?
Money sent from migrants to family and friends back home Represent one of the largest transfer of capital across international borders A much greater redistribution of wealth from wealthy countries to poorer ones than foreign aid Advantages: Cannot be withdrawn and are unconditional Avoid government structures and thus avoid corruption Provide a valuable form of social insurance, credit and investment in countries that lack these markets
What are the Cold War origins of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? What did Lord Ismay mean when he said the goal of NATO was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"?
NATO is a protection agreement that an attack on a NATO nation is an attack on the whole NATO. This was mainly to: Keep the russians out: Protection against cold war military threats (nuclear) and contain communism Keep the Americans in: binding american military power Keep the Germans down: A solution to the Germany Dilemma to make sure that Germany never starts another world war.
What is nationalism? How does nationalism relate to the concepts of nation and nation-state?
Nation: Political community based on shared language, culture, political ideals Nation state: when political community has own internationally recognized state Nationalism: expression of a set of political interests supporting political independence autonomy for a nation
Which social groups in Great Britain tended to support leaving the European Union (EU) and which groups voted in favor of remaining in the EU?
Older men and women in England tended towards voting for leaving the European Union Younger citizens typically voted for remaining in the EU
What is the Paris climate accord? How might it operate to reduce carbon emissions and limit the increase of average temperatures? How did it navigate the tension between developed and developing countries?
Paris Climate Accord Overview: Deal reached Dec 2015 US played important role in the final terms of agreement Agreement on process by which states would submit voluntary reduced CO2 emissions targets to keep avg global temp increase below 2.0 degrees C. Important: not legally binding emissions targets. Work through ptx?? of naming and shaming.
What is polarity? How does the distribution of power between great powers influence their relations? What is the difference between unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems and how does each affect relations between great powers?
Polarity characterizes the distribution of capabilities among great powers in the international system by counting the number of independent great powers that exist at any one point in time. Polarity impacts great power relations by: Helping to set the threat that each poses to the others Influencing coalitional dynamics among them Bipolar Competition is set by their own domestic capacity to sustain any contest (e.g. Cold War Era Soviet Union and United States) Soviet union withdrew from the competition because its domestic system can no longer sustain the competition Multipolar: More significant alliance configurations among great powers Easily destabilized by movement of great power or neutrality Higher risk of a great power war Unipolar Current system Costly to challenge the political order Condition of deterrence likely to foster peace between the unipole and middle powers. War more likely among weaker states since middle states no longer have capabilities to restrain other revisionist states.
Why do terrorist organizations resort to political violence to achieve their political goals?
Political violence is often chosen because terrorists can't defeat state military in a conventional war (due to asymmetrical conflict), and to provoke an overreaction from adversary that weakens the state could bolster support for terrorist organization Psychological: Desire to join terrorist org relies on personality traits, life experiences, mindsets Sociological: Terrorist organizations provide a tight knit community for social outcasts and give members a group that they previously didn't have.
According to Urpelainen, what are the pros and cons of the Paris climate accord?
Provides positive perspective on the Paris Climate agreement. Major takeaway- necessary and positive first step, but more needs to be done to mitigate climate change Positives of Paris Deal - they made a deal that committed both developed and developing countries to control emissions. Broad collective agreement: previous agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, only had emission reductions for developed countries. Paris deal commits both developing and developed countries to emission reductions. Cannot mitigate climate change without developing countries, involved in the effort. New voluntary approach: uses voluntary national targets rather than binding agreements with imposed targets to achieve lower emissions. More realistic. Addresses needs of developing countries: has 100 billion in 'climate finance' to help developing countries find ways to break out of poverty through development without contributing to climate change. Challenge is executing and deepening the paris deal. Current targets will NOT get the job done.
What were the five criteria originally established by the United States to determine whether an individual qualified as a refugee?
Race Religion Nationality Membership of a particular social group Membership of a particular political opinion
Compare and contrast realist and idealist approaches to U.S. foreign policy.
Realism: Focus on physical security and economic interests, subordinate moral concerns Idealism: Moral concerns central to identity of US; source of legitimacy and influence; should be central to US foreign policy Protect human rights Promote democracy
What is the "Principle of Non-refoulement"? Describe the factors that led the United States and the international community to adopt this principle regarding accepting refugees.
Refugees cannot be forcibly returned to a country they experienced oppression and fear they would continue to experience such Adopted after witnessing severe persecution of Jews and other groups during WWII
How is international migration a part of the broader phenomenon of globalization? How does the international flow of labor through international migration create winners and losers within domestic economies?
Related to international trade policy International migration of labor demonstrates how national economies are becoming increasingly integrated into a global one. Winners: Firms: lower labor costs Consumers: lower prices due to lower labor costs of production Having more consumers means more economic growth and more tax revenue for the government Efficiency increases by decreasing labor shortages Losers: Native unskilled workers: higher labor supply means lower wages Remittances Immigrants are important international financial transfer
What is the basic scientific claim about the causes and extent of climate change? What are the main environmental consequences that scientists fear will result from climate change?
Scientific Basis Increase in average surface temperature since 1850 by 1.5 degrees fahrenheit. More in some places closer to 2.5-3 degrees Rising sea level (1901-2010 rose .19 meters more than previous two millennia) Rise in greenhouse gas emissions -> warming Deforestation cause of warming - destroys worlds carbon sinks. Consequences Rising sea levels Environmental degradation Extreme weather events
What is a Nationally Determined Contribution?
Set nationally, voluntary; not negotiated internationally. EU: Pledged to reduce emissions by 40% in 2030 from 1990 levels, set legally binding EU target in October 2014, already down 19% US: reduce emissions by 26-28% by 2025 (from 2005 levels), this is 16.3% reduction relative to 1990 - Relies on (Obama) EPA restrictions on coal fired power plants and support for renewables - US progress depends largely on executive orders...implications for next four to eight years? - Trump reverses Obama EPA executive order in March 2017 China: pledges peak emissions by 2030 - Cut CO2 emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030 (relative to 2005), boost non fossil fuels to 20% of energy consumption Not strong enough yet: all current pledges would still leave 2030 emissions too high to stay under 2.0°C mark
According to the module's reading, why are terrorist organizations hard to deter?
Terrorist orgs are extremely dedicated to their goals, even to the point of sacrificing themselves. Terrorist orgs don't typically have a home base that can be destroyed in response to an attack. Terrorist can organize attacks then hide in secret to escape counter attacks Deterrence threats of retaliation may be counterproductive. This is because of one strategy of terrorist groups to provoke states to respond to an attack with disproportionate force
What is the "terrorist's dilemma"?
Terrorist orgs can't use too much force, since it will result in retaliation. There also needs to be a hierarchy and communication to make the group organized. However, too much organization can make them liable to detection, but they can't also be too local, since this would cause a lack of coordination. Balance group organization versus individual group
What is the Ricardian model of trade? Describe the processes by which it suggests that trade and specialization can increase aggregate national income.
The Ricardian model of trade states that globalization helps to raise national income through specialization and trade. Ricardo used the principle of comparative advantage to illustrate how international trade could generate these economic benefits. These gains from trade stem from differences in the relative efficiency of individuals, firms, or whole economies in the production of some mix of goods. These relative efficiencies are captured in the comparative costs of producing some good and an alternative good across two countries. Ricardo showed that countries could gain from trade by specializing in the production of those goods in which they held the greatest efficiency gains relative to all other goods. Specialization and international trade generate these economic benefits for all countries, even for the hypothetical country capable of producing all goods at lower costs than their international competitors. Ricardo misses the tendency of globalization to shift distribution of income within an economy Important: some groups see income gains (high tech and college graduates in US); some groups see income losses (manufacturing sector in US) Example: Automobile sector Lose factory job making $30/hour when GM moves plant from Flint, MI to Mexico find alternative job at WalMart for $12/hour
How does U.S. membership in international organizations like the UN, NATO, and WTO demonstrate the ability of international institutions to solve a fundamental problem of international politics - to create and preserve a coercive hand, at the same time, constrain that same power?
The US has a lot of coercive power in the military however the US military is used only when deemed necessary by the UN since the UN controls the coercive power. This constrains the US military and allows for them to be able to use authoritative and legitimate coercive power. By allocating these powers to a supranational organization it gives these coercive powers authority
How has the application of US asylum rules always been political? Know examples.
The US will let in some groups and not others at times Accept refugees from communist states during Cold War Deny Haitian refugees after Cold War
Watch the Jon Stewart video clip on the United Nations and explain his critique of the United Nations. Why is this critique "funny but wrong" according to lecture? Why does the United States participate in the United Nations and often abide by its decisions when it could just ignore it instead (because it possesses much greater military capacity than the UN)?
The United States is a key player in the United Nations because of its seat on Security Council. The United Nations is a source of legitimacy abroad and at home UN reflect global public opinion, easier to gain allies if supported by UN Domestic public more likely to support policies that have secured UN approval. Bush and the war in Iraq was done without UN approval and the consequences of this included Turkey did not allow US to base in their country Other ally countries did not want to become involved
How did we get from the attack on 9/11 and war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq?
The administration was populated by many neoconservatives in senior positions that had long supported regime change in Iraq, thus after 9/11 calls for war against Iraq including the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Rumsfield raised this possibility in a meeting on 9/12 and Wolfowitz, his deputy at the defense department, issued a clear threat to states that sponsored terrorism a day later (hinting at Iraq). Two months later Bush orders Rumsfield to begin updating the war plan for Iraq The war against Iraq was overdetermined...too many political justifications for war. Weapons of mass destruction Saddam hussein seeking to augment capabilities and threaten allies in region. Terrorists might get touch on the weapons. Deterrence would not work, because they had been used in the past so deterrence would not work. And Wolfowitz knew this would be a good way to justify going to war domestically. Iraq as part of Axis of Evil and key enemy of the US--might harbor terrorists. Leverage point to transform and democratize middle east Democratic Iraq would put pressure on surrounding autocratic countries to liberalize. This was also looked as a long term solution to alleviate problem of terrorism Better to fight terrorists in a foreign theater.
Summarize the basic developments regarding clashes in Tijuana between migrants waiting to claim asylum in the U.S. and border patrol agents. Compare and contrast the way supporters of President Trump see these events versus critics of President Trump.
The clashes started peacefully, but turned violent when migrants tried to cross at a more accessible point (threw tear gas) Supporters: Protecting national security Critics: Crimes
What is power transition theory? What causes shifts in the distribution of power among great powers and how can they alter the larger international political order and heighten the risks of war?
The decline of a leading state can destabilize the international system by activating the commitment problem. The rising states may be encouraged to pursue a more radical break from the prior order and face a commitment problem with respect to the future international order. If the leading great power opt to meet the challenges and preserve its position of influence over the existing international order with a preventive war. The outbreak of great power war though reverberates throughout the international system, engulfing smaller states as the principal protagonists seek to acquire new allies, raw materials, and strategically important territories in the global struggle to defeat their adversaries. Power transition theory - couples this logic of the commitment problem with the global political importance of great powers to argue that shifts in the distribution of capabilities among great powers provoke wars that fundamentally alter the larger international political order. Power transition theory: one state's military, political, and economic dominance creates peace and stability in great power relations
According to the reading (Chapter 25: Globalization), what are the chief indicators of the increase of globalization since World War I? What is comparative advantage and how does it contribute to aggregate economic gains for states from trade? How does trade contribute to the economic sources of order in the international system?
The existence of more supranational organizations such as the UN and NATO (which have a large influence of world order in the international system. The global trade network which allows people to sell and buy goods and services from opposite sides of the globe is very indicative of globalization Increase in growth of imports/exports Immigration Investment of surplus capital by foreigners Exploiting cost advantage (factories) Purchase stocks/bonds Comparative advantage: specializing in goods that a country has the greatest efficiency relative to other countries; lowest opportunity cost Increases economic gains because governments encourage specialization in their sectors with greatest efficiency over any other good they can produce Economic sources of order Markets Historically seen with feudal lords giving more control to workers to boost productivity Merchants wanting to limit authority of monarchy to boost private wealth, which increases income Decreases economic incentives for war since trade is international Trade helps everybody grow through comparative advantage
If trade makes states wealthier, why is there political resistance to globalization?
There is political resistance to globalization because the benefits are not distributed evenly across society. The domestic distributional consequences are that their are winners and there are losers. Groups that see income gains in the US are high tech jobs (high skilled workers) and college graduates. A group that sees income loses is the US manufacturing sector Example: job creation in financial and high tech services because intensively use high-skilled labor (people with college or advanced degrees) Think about factor endowments (scarcity and abundance) in the US relative to ratio of factor endowments in other countries Example: US scarce in labor relative to India; consequently, wages lower in India Jobs are lost in sectors that rely disproportionately on resources that are scarce in the US Example: unskilled labor in manufacturing Problem: when lose job in manufacturing cannot find work in high tech because do not possess requisite skill level There shouldn't be tariffs
According to opinion polls, what were the main reasons British voters gave for either support the "leave" position or the "remain" position in the Brexit vote?
Those voting to leave were most concerned about limiting immigration and regaining British sovereignty Also did not want EU to have decision in British law-making Didn't support Britain sending any more money to EU More than 50% of those who voted to remain in the EU say they were most concerned with damaging the British economy
Describe the two new rules regarding asylum claims proposed by the Trump administration. How do these rule changes differ from the way the U.S. handled asylum claims under previous administrations? Why are they being challenged (or likely to be challenged) in court?
Those who illegally cross will be denied any asylum "Remain in Mexico": migrants that want to have asylum must stay in Mexico while their case is being heard Before, states committed to providing safe refuge for those suffering persecution and also committed to non-refoulement: not sending back refugees to their countries of origin if they still face persecution there
How can global capital markets discipline or influence the economic policy of governments?
To an extent, capital markets serve as a check on the action of governments, and can also provide valuable insight into the economic perception of certain policy actions. Certain actions can make investments in a country more or less attractive to foreign investors. Likewise, markets may signal their perception of a government's actions by exerting price pressure on a countries' debts and currency.
What is the tragedy of the commons? Why is it rational for individuals to overuse public goods? How does this phenomenon help to explain the difficulty of managing the sustainable use of commonly held public property? Know some examples.
Tragedy of the commons: In reference to the diminishing stock of suitable grazing pasture in rural England during the early 1800's. The 'commons' refers to pastures accessible to any farmers livestock and shared community. Often applies to the problem of managing shared fisheries, water sources and other environmental issues. Common proof resources are rivalours. Yet, it is easy to access and use these goods, which paves way for free riding without contributing. Many incentives to use goods, not a lot of incentives to limit/restrict use. Tragedy of the Common Emerges with public prop or resources for which it is costly to restrict their use. Divergence between private benefits and social costs: individually rational for people states to consume, but diffused costs to society insufficient to prevent overuse. Resources get depleted (e.g. Oil Fields, Common Grazing lands, Overpopulation, Fisheries, Atmosphere) Real World Example Factory dumps pollutants into rivier, hurts citizens, factory doesn't pay, citizens pay costs via health.
Explain the tradeoffs facing the Trump administration as it decides whether or not to pull back its military forces from Iraq and Syria now that ISIS has been militarily defeated in the region.
Trump administration faces crucial trade-off: Campaigned against long-term military interventions Syrian civil war risks creating a quagmire for American intervention But lessons of American withdrawal from Iraq suggests that vacuum of power creates conditions for return of Sunni insurgency as well as opportunities Complicated cross-pressures from competing allies create conflicts that present difficult choices for the U.S. American retrenchment presents opportunities for adversaries like Iran and Russia to push the U.S. out of the region
Describe some important steps in the emerging trade war between China and the United States.
Trump imposed new tariffs on steel and aluminum (didn't exempt China). China retaliated. The US responded with targeted list of more possible Chinese tariffs. China retaliated again. China is targeting Trump's political base (manufacturing, cars, airplanes, farmers). US new tariffs on steel and aluminum (China not exempted) China responds with tariffs on $3 billion US imports (fruits, nuts, wine, and pork) Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on up to 1300 Chinese products (machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment) Potentially cut $50 billion of Chinese exports China threatens to impose 25% tariffs on US exports of transportation equipment (planes and cars) and agricultural (soybeans) Potentially cut $50 billion of US exports Tuesday (4/17): China new fees (tariffs) or sorghum exports from US About $1 billion; production concentrated in Kansas and Texas China targeting sectors that are important to Trump's political base Blue collar manufacturing Agriculture in red states (Nebraska, Dakotas, Kansas, Iowa) Imposing economic pain on them so they pressure Trump to change his policies
How do President Trump's reasons for maintaining the US-Saudi relationship reflect a realist approach to U.S. foreign policy? How do some of the critiques of Trump's reaction reflect an idealist approach?
Trump statement illustrates tension between realism and idealism in US foreign policy: oil or human rights? Economic foundations of US-Saudi ties: oil and arms sales Republican pushback in Congress
What actions by Trump during his visit to France for the 100-year anniversary of World War I caused controversy at home and abroad? Why? Why is the anniversary of World War I important? What are the historical lessons of World War I and World War II regarding the effects of international institutions on international peace and security?
Trump went to Europe to commemorate end of WWI on 11-11-18 Public dispute with French president over values and institutions that should govern contemporary world (nationalism vs patriotism) Europe argues that WWII and WWI demonstrates that institutions are necessary for peace and stability, as seen as how Hitler seized Germany and many other nations because of a lack of an institution rallying countries into action fast enough
Discuss the reaction of President Trump to the CIA report. What reasons does President Trump give for not condemning MBS or sanctioning him after the CIA concluded that he was responsible for Jamal Khashoggi's death?
Trump: "After my heavily negotiated trip to Saudi Arabia last year, the Kingdom agreed to spend and invest $450 billion in the United States. This is a record amount of money. It will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, tremendous economic development, and much additional wealth for the United States." "If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries - and very happy to acquire all of this newfound business. It would be a wonderful gift to them directly from the United States!" Trump also says we don't know all the facts "In any case, our relationship is with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia." - some holdback
Discuss specific strategic uses of political violence by terrorist organizations such as provocation, outbidding, and spoiling potential peace negotiations.
Violence can provoke the adversary to overreact by using too strong of a military retaliation that affects a wider community rather than the individual terrorist organization. This then leads to a backlash of the community against their government and can drive them to support the terrorist group. Outbidding: use violence to convince the public that the terrorists have greater resolve to fight the enemy than rival groups, and therefore are worthy of support Peace negotiations: Terrorist orgs can increase distrust between two sides that are negotiating a peace deal. An attack can make the other side lose trust because it undermines the state's ability to contain its terrorists. Thus, pushing the moderates that are willing to work out a peace deal to abandon their efforts immediately
What are the main differences between voluntary and forced migration?
Voluntary Migration For personal gain, usually for economic opportunity Legal vs. illegal or undocumented migration Forced Migration Escape war, disaster, repression Refugees and asylum seekers Human trafficking Trump & Session's definition of forced migration: Must be threatened or repressed by state authorities, dangers from non-state actors are not acceptable.
What are some critiques of the democratic peace theory?
While established democracy doesn't tend to fight each other but countries undergoing democratic transitions experience more conflict Yugoslavia Alternative explanations Peace after WWII was due to common enemy in Russia but not the common regime type in Democracy Great power settlements, not democracy, explains peace after WWII. Hegemonic influence imposed peace: Soviet Union in the east United States in the west
Describe some of the efforts by the United States to promote democracy around the world. What are the political challenges associated with American efforts to promote democracy? What are the benefits and drawbacks associated with promoting democracy around the world?
Woodrow Wilson Enter WWI to promote Democracy around Europe Democratic Germany Self-determination: empower local group to demand independence After WWII Superiority of democracy vs. Communism Prevent communist power from seizing forces and allied with Autocratic regimes that does not align with democracy just to prevent communism from seizing power Undermined democratic inclined but left leaning governments that might succumb to influence from the SU Iran, Chile End of Cold War The collapse of communism caused by demand for freedom (democracy) Yugoslavia Clinton interfere to stop genocide and spread democracy (expand NATO) Bush administration used spread of democracy as an anti-terrorism strategy Germany and japan
